I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.
By: Buckey2745 , 11:55 AM GMT on March 29, 2014
I haven't talked much about it in the past couple days because honestly I didn't have much confidence that we would actually see any snow out of this system. If this were about 30-60 days ago, I would have been talking about this setup for a week. It's a classic southern low that usually dumps on us in the winter months. But the end of March? Usually not so much.
But here we are, first thing in the morning, talking about a snowy end to our Saturday.
The best way to explain how we're going to get air cold enough at the end of March for us to have a changeover to snow is to show the 900mb wind from the latest NAM:
The colors on this map are wind speeds about a thousand feet above the surface. You'll notice a large area of wind circulating around the low pressure center in West Virginia, bringing northeasterly winds across Ohio. Those winds are pumping in the cold air this evening and starting our changeover.
The NWS has advisories and warnings out to our north already, and given their history of blanketing the area once an event starts, I wouldn't be surprised if they move those a county or two south by mid-afternoon:
Yesterday's high was in the 50's, and we've been relatively mild off and on for the past few days. That's left our ground temps far too warm to support an immediate accumulation. This is where I start to disagree with some model forecasts. Sure, we may have 2-3" fall from the sky, but our temps won't drop below freezing until after dark tonight, with us hanging in the mid to even upper 30's during daylight. Even behind the clouds, the March sun will be strong enough to keep us above freezing.
I think those areas north and west of Columbus may get up to 2" of snow. They're already fairly cold and they'll change over much sooner than us.
For the Columbus metro? I don't think we get quite that much. Tomorrow morning when you wake up the roads may be slushy to just plain wet, and we'll see 1" of snow accumulated on grassy surfaces and maybe sidewalks/driveways. Don't expect this to shut down your Sunday plans, and it'll all be gone by early afternoon tomorrow as we'll be sunny and in the 50's again.
UPDATE: March 30th
We ended up with 1" of snow last night, as the rain never changed to snow until after dark. We had a couple hours of decent snowfall before the precip stopped.
That left us with this to wake up to:
Winter Weather Advisories- 11
Winter Storm Warnings- 3
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 4
Wind Chill Advisories- 4
Wind Chill Warnings- 2
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0
November: 3" (Predicted: 3")
December: 8.05" (Predicted: 7")
January: 15.1" (Predicted: 7")
February: 10.6" (Predicted: 4.35")
March: 4.1" (Predicted: 7")
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Canal Winchester, OH
|Dew Point:||16.6 °F|
|Wind Gust:||1.0 mph|
Updated: 9:30 PM EST on November 20, 2014