Hyping the Monster: 4 Days Out

By: Buckey2745 , 8:42 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

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I mentioned briefly at the end of my last post about a potential "big one" starting next week, and with several model runs under our belts I feel pretty confident in saying that Central Ohio will get hit by this storm... it's just a matter of what we actually get hit by.

Right now this looks like a multi day event. Really we'll have some form of winter weather starting all the way on Saturday with a weak shortwave rolling through the area bringing a very light snow, all the way through Monday night.

Forget the Saturday event, I may barely cover that in the coming days, here's where we start:


Sunday a reinforcing shot of cold air with a trough driving down from Canada will bring enhanced moisture in the morning hours well out ahead of the surface low which will still be back in Texas. This begins what will be 36 hours of winter weather. This moisture appears to be all snow and we should get some light accumulation from it.

Then starting early Monday the surface low moves from Texas to what I am going to guess will be a Tennessee Valley to Ohio Valley area... that's still yet to be determined. This is the time period that is hard to predict precipitation type. For the past couple days it's been assumed some sort of mix, but the last couple GFS and Euro runs are cold and snowy. Below are the predicted snow totals from both.

GFS:


Euro:


I don't think these totals will stick because even this far out I really think we'll get some icing in there. The low is forecasted by the Euro to come way too close to the Ohio River for this to stay all snow, so I think the overriding warm air will make its presence known in a big way. That reinforcing cold front on Sunday is the key player here as it'll do one of two things: set us up for icing, or force the low further south and limit our precip. There will be a very narrow band of very heavy snow and probability and history says we won't be in that.

This storm could finally be the big one. All season we have nickel and dimed our way to a hefty snow total, but we haven't gotten a gigantic storm in years honestly. The potential is there, so it's time to hype it.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 11
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 3
Wind Chill Advisories- 4
Wind Chill Warnings- 2
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
November: 3" (Predicted: 3")
December: 8.05" (Predicted: 7")
January: 15.1" (Predicted: 7")
February: 10.6" (Predicted: 4.35")
Season: 36.75"

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3. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:37 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
Buckey2745 has created a new entry.
2. AnalogueKid
2:22 PM GMT on February 28, 2014
Got a winter storm watch now, but NWS is still hedging their bets on amounts and types.
Member Since: December 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
1. mapcat
2:38 AM GMT on February 27, 2014
Perfect timing...I have to drive across PA on Monday. Looks like it's going to be heavy all the way to NJ.
Member Since: March 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 10

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 29 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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