Milder Tracks

By: Buckey2745 , 6:24 PM GMT on January 31, 2014

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This weekend storm just keeps tracking further and further north, as is common with model progressions. Right now the low looks to pass as far north as Toledo, where earlier in the week it looked like it might pass right through the Columbus area.

With this further north track, it's making tomorrow look less and less like a wash out. In fact much of the day could be cloudy and "warm." Ok... this is relatively speaking considering we were -14° the other morning. But I think we may actually get as warm as 45°.

Most of the day should stay dry south of a line from Indy to Sandusky before the front finally dives south after the low passes east.

Chances are very low for snow on the backside, just as we usually see with these scenarios where CAA just doesn't rush in fast enough before the moisture cuts off. In the Columbus area I give it a 20% chance to even see a dusting.

You can see by the simulated NAM radar we won't have much west of the 32° line by Sunday morning:


This will not be a big rain maker, maybe getting 0.2" total out of this, so I don't think flooding will be a threat. We would need well over an inch to look at flooding with our current snow pack.

One other feature to watch this weekend would be the tail end of the front that passes through tomorrow night. Models have began to develop a low pressure system on the end of it and have it riding up the front to the northeast. Right now the Euro has it going through Atlanta, spreading the snow shield as far north as Portsmouth. I think that may end up inching just a little bit closer by Monday morning, but stays far enough away not to affect the Columbus area.

Finally, next week's midweek storm is shaping up to be warmer than expected. Even though the last couple models runs have shown this low a little further south, it's only as far south as cutting right through the heart of Central Ohio. I don't want to get in to predictions quite yet, but I do feel like by the time I do a full writeup on the upcoming midweek storm, I'll be talking about a warmer, wetter solution than what we may have been thinking one or even two days ago.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 8
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 2
Wind Chill Advisories- 4
Wind Chill Warnings- 2
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
November: 3" (Predicted: 3")
December: 8.05" (Predicted: 7")
January: 15.1" (Predicted: 7")
Season: 26.15"

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2. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:58 PM GMT on February 02, 2014
Buckey2745 has created a new entry.
1. TheHermit43130
3:10 PM GMT on February 01, 2014
The ENSM forecast for the Arctic Oscillation has it going extremely positive during this month, so if that's any indication February could be quite a bit warmer than January.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWli nk/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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