Brown Christmas: Flooding Likely This Weekend

By: Buckey2745 , 6:12 PM GMT on December 19, 2013

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For the better part of two weeks we have had snow on the ground. I'm not sure about you but I don't remember the last time we went that long in December with snow cover. Unfortunately that streak comes to an end today.

Shortly before midnight last night we went above freezing and we're not forecasted to be below freezing again until Sunday night. That's a 96 hour period, probably our longest since the very beginning of the month.

But that's not the only reason we're losing all the snow:

5 Day QPF

The Friday through Sunday timeframe is going to bring us one of our biggest rainmakers of the year... this after a December that has seen almost 8" of snow in Canal Winchester (more recorded at the airport... of course).

Day by Day Forecast
This is terrible timing for most of us as this is the last weekend to finish up Christmas shopping. The only thing that could make this worse would be if this were all snow (which I would personally love). Given what is forecasted, if we had a 10:1 snow ratio with this storm, we could have been looking at 30" of snow. But of course we don't have to worry about that this weekend.

Friday
The first of two disturbances start to move through the area. Rain will start by morning rush, but luckily be light during the day. The heaviest of the precip should stay north, and be out of here by sun down:

Friday Forecast

Overall I'd say rain will total about 0.25" and should just be a daylight hours nuisance.

Saturday
This is our real rainmaking day. Rain should kick back in early morning hours and last straight through until dark. This round will have a lot more moisture with it, so even though we may have rain for as long as we did Friday, we will see a ton more rain.

Saturday Forecast

I think Saturday we end up seeing 1.25" of rain, bringing our storm total up to 1.50".

Sunday
This will be the end of the storm, with the potential of some very heavy rain in the early morning hours. In terms of rainfall rates this could be where we see some of our highest, but in terms of daily rainfall this won't be our wettest day. The storm will probably exit our area earlier than most people think, leaving Sunday as a transition day over to much colder air. We could go from low 60's in the morning to low 30's in the evening.


Sunday Forecast

I think from midnight Sunday through the early morning hours we will see another 0.75" of rain, bringing our storm total to 2.25".

Some media outlets are throwing out numbers like 4" - 5" for our area. I believe those numbers are way over estimated and are based off of what could happen in other parts of the country. I think north and west of us will see more than 3", which actually affects us in the end. Those rivers and streams to the north, combined with snow melt, saturated grounds, and our rain down here, will eventually lead to flooding. I don't believe it's a possibility, I think it's a definite.

Flood Watches should be posted by the end of today for the entire area, and the entire weekend will be a washout. No doubt about it.

Unfortunately that means it'll be a brown Christmas for all of us here in Ohio. There's a chance we could see some lake enhanced snow showers Sunday night on the backside of this low, but the chances are slim and not worth banking on. It's a depressing reality after seeing how promising this month started. About 7 days ago you probably could have bet on a White Christmas. Now? No way.

Stay dry out there this weekend.

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2. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:02 PM GMT on December 24, 2013
Buckey2745 has created a new entry.
1. PugetSoundPost
3:54 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
How has it gone for you with the storm? How is the week ahead?

I am stopping by to wish you and your family a very MERRY CHRISTMAS!! Hopefully you will be together with all whom you hold most dear and will have lots of fun with little ones during this magical season for them! Enjoy it all!
Member Since: October 8, 2001 Posts: 172 Comments: 866

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 29 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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