Big Misses On Snow

By: Buckey2745 , 8:38 PM GMT on December 16, 2013

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Wow. It's been a rough few days when it comes to predicting snow. I have really struck out. Let's start with Saturday's storm.

I went big, predicted a much colder solution even though all of the models hinted at a much warmer event and... well... I was off. Way off.

I predicted 3" for Saturday here in Canal Winchester. We ended up with: 1".

At least in my last post I acknowledged this wasn't an easy forecast:

"Honestly this storm will not be easy to predict. It'll all be a matter of seeing what happens with the warm air. P-type is always unpredictable."

Here is what Saturday's snow map looked like:


The Snow I Didn't Even Forecast

It wasn't much, but last night we got an additional 0.75" of snow from a weak upper air disturbance that rolled through the area. While it wasn't much, it did absolutely snarl rush hour traffic around here.

But I didn't even forecast it!

I personally assumed this would be a flurry event, and that most of the snow would fall between here and Cincinnati. While it's true that the bulk fell there (almost 2" south of Dayton), we still got enough to make it newsworthy.

Tonight
And again... tonight, yet another disturbance rolls through. This time I think I have a better handle on it, and it looks like this will be a northern Ohio event. I think instead of passing through the Dayton/Cincy region, this one will head toward Lima/Mansfield region.



That'll leave light snow for points north of I-70. I think we will see an additional 0.5" for us here in Canal Winchester, leaving some white stuff for our morning commute... again.

I'll post again soon about the weekend storm AND about our chances for a White Christmas!

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 4
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
November: 3" (Predicted: 3")
December: 7.75" (Predicted: 6.5")
Season: 10.75"

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 29 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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Personal Weather Stations

Lehman Estates
Canal Winchester, OH
Elevation: 754 ft
Temperature: 62.9 °F
Dew Point: 54.9 °F
Humidity: 75%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 8:47 AM EDT on July 25, 2014

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