I'm a 31 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.
By: Buckey2745 , 1:48 PM GMT on May 22, 2013
We're looking at our second straight day in a slight risk for severe weather here in Central Ohio, but today seems like a much more widespread chance than yesterday.
First the SPC's severe outlook:
The change from the earlier outlooks is that the threat extends further east, which is a product of the location of the greatest forcing this afternoon.
For us this afternoon I expect the most potent storms to be in the southeast portion of Ohio, leaving Columbus right on the dividing line.
The SPC's mesoscale analysis for early this afternoon shows instability (red lines of CAPE) and shear (blue lines in kts) beginning to ramp up and leaving Columbus right on the edge of both.
This has the potential to be dangerous for us, as we will have just enough instability to allow storms to pop, and just enough shear for them to spin. Points eastward will have more of a chance for bigger storms to fire, but they will be limited to a high wind threat and hail.
I plan on updating after initiation this afternoon, but here are my probabilities for today:
Tornado Warning Chance: 5%
Severe Thunderstorm Warning Chance: 60%
These are the highest chances I've posted all year, so keep alert.
Severe storms seem pretty unlikely now, at least in the supercell variety. A Thunderstorm Watch has been posted out to our east, but considerable cloudiness has overtaken Central Ohio and really limited our instability. In fact the SPC has taken the southwestern portion of Ohio out of Slight Risk.
A couple of severe cells aren't completely out of the question, but today can probably be labeled a bust.
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