April 10th: Slight Risk of Storms

By: Buckey2745 , 1:35 PM GMT on April 10, 2013

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A storm system that has had us in the warm sector for the past couple days might finally produce storms today, as the SPC has us in a Slight Risk area for the afternoon:



While there is a little excitement for the first threat of severe weather of the year, I feel like the threat isn't very strong. We're still in the warm sector, where we've been the past couple days and no storms have fired those days.

CAPE values could reach the 2000 J/kg rangem which would be good enough for rapidly developing cells if the forcing is there, but I just feel like the forcing is going to be too far north of us, closer to the boundry.

Below is where I feel like the storms will most likely fire:



The threat will transition in to tonight and tomorrow as well, with the better chance of storms being tomorrow.

Probability
The warm air is in place, with 80's across the area today. Instability will ramp up this afternoon as low clouds disipate, and it really could feel like a good severe day. But I don't think we're going to realize the potential of the atmosphere.

Thunderstorm Watch/Warnings: 20%
Tornado Watch/Warnings: 0%

UPDATE: 3:03pm
The 20% chance of a Watch I predicted this morning came true, as the SPC issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas along and north of I-70 until 9pm:



We're on the southern border of this watch, and I'm still thinking our impacts may be minimal. With the northeast motion of the storms that hav been firing, we would need to look toward Cincinnati for our storms. As of right now, that's not firing. As you can see in the radar above, most is staying to our north.

We're actually looking at fairly high instability of 3000 J/kg with an impressive lift index, but no forcing that far south yet to initiate any convection. The thought is that the front will begin to sag southward just a little, and that's when SW Ohio and Central Ohio could get in on the action.

Everything is in place... now we wait for the spark.

UPDATE: 5:58pm
Initiation seems unlikely anywhere south of I-70, as the storms training over northern Ohio have spread enough debris clouds south to wane instability and actually kill the atmosphere with SBCIN:



I believe our only chance for organized supercells this afternoon would be some sort of outflow boundry firing in to some clean air to the south, but that doesn't even seem likely right now.

UPDATE: 7:06pm

Ask and you shall recieve... an outflow boundry beginning to slowly expand the storms southward. So far no severe returns from these storms, but at least we'll get some rain out of this:

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3. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:46 PM GMT on April 16, 2013
Buckey2745 has created a new entry.
2. Buckey2745
7:47 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Looks like storms are coming out of nowhere. We won't really see them coming I don't think. One just popped northeast of Columbus.
Member Since: December 28, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 193
1. AnalogueKid
3:48 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Nice little t-storm over central Columbus now.
Member Since: December 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 115

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 29 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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