Tracking Saturn: Impact on Ohio, Updates
Because of the ever changing nature of this storm, I plan on updating this entry as the storm develops
10:52am
Less than 24 hours before the onset of precipitation and there is still some uncertainty on the track of this storm. Even this close to it effecting our area and the NAM and GFS are miles apart. And with this storm, miles makes the difference in inches.
Two Tracks
The NAM and the GFS still differ, but what they do agree on is the heaviest of the snow will be north of here.
The NAM actually shows the low spinning up in to eastern Ohio before transitioning to an east coast storm. This solution puts us in a scenario where snow could actually be pretty heavy in western Ohio.
The GFS still has a due east track across Kentucky, leaving a uniform snow line. This hasn't varied much, and it still appears to be the preferred solution for forecasters.
Winter Storm Watches are already out to our north with that area expected to change over to Warnings by the end of the day:
I'd like to wait until one more model run comes out before I'll feel safe saying how bad this storm will be. Just recently the 6z model runs actually came in to agreement on 2-3" of snow for Columbus, but that was a huge change from the dusting the NAM called for just 6 hours earlier. I'll update this afternoon.
2:13pm
The 12Z GFS that I've waited for is out and it's moved that heavy band of snow south in to our area. For the past few runs we've seen hints that it may happen, and 12Z shows the worst case scenario; a heavy snow band setting up on the backside of this low:
That bumps the predicted snow totals for the Columbus and Franklin County area up to 5-8" of snow:
Forcasters are going to find this latest run hard to ignore since both models pick up on this heavy snow feature but just differ on placement. GFS has been the strongest model throughout and I imagine the 12Z run is going to prompt Wilmington to move the Watch further south in to our area, and eventually move it to a Warning sometime tonight.
Once Watches and Warnings have been posted I'll write more.
3:54pm
Wilmington has updated their graphic to show the change in models indicating more snow for our area. They're calling for 3-7" here in our area:
4:31pm
There it is. I'll update later with final snow predictions:
8:32pm
Here are my snowfall predictions for tomorrow and Wednesday's storm. These totals can be greatly effected if we have more sleet than predicted, and especially if sleet changes over to rain for a short time.
I'm going with 5" of snow here in Canal Winchester.
LiveBlog starts tomorrow morning.
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