Tracking Saturn: 1+ Days Out

By: Buckey2745 , 11:43 PM GMT on March 03, 2013

With each model run the GFS has been the most consistant and also the middle of the road when it comes to our precipitation. I feel safe saying this definitely will not be an all-snow event. In fact, depending on exactly which computer model you pay attention to, we may not see snow at all.

There are two phases of this storm. The Monday night in to Tuesday afternoon timeframe is pre passage of the low pressure center. It appears right now the low will pass through Kentucky, putting us in to the warm sector and bringing a pretty good mix of precip type:

What's easy to notice with this storm is the ridge in the southwestern US is pushing all of the precipitation in a northwest to southeast orientation. That means not much spread on the northeast side of the low, where we will be. It makes precip timing almost impossible to predict, and I'll have to hold off until at least the 12Z GFS run tomorrow before making a final call on that.

Our snow chances come in Tuesday night in to Wednesday morning as the low passes south and cold air pours in behind it. Then it's all a matter of where that moisture sets up and dumps:

As of now the GFS is showing a sharp gradient from north to south in the snowfall estimates. Columbus currently sits in a minor 1-3" swath, with the southern part of Franklin County being in the 1" range.

Our last blast of winter will be boom or bust. And right now, it feels like a bust.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 2
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 10.25" (Predicted: 10")
January: 3" (Predicted: 1.5")
February: 7.45" (Predicted: 6")
March: 0.1" (Predicted: 0")
Season: 20.9"

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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