December 20th - 21st: Draco Hits Ohio
We're already feeling the effects of this storm here in Central Ohio as we're in the warm sector and getting decently heavy rain. We're already approaching 0.40" of rain in a little under 2 hours.
As rain began to fall our winds actually dropped off significantly. However now we're back up to gusts around 22mph with the steady rain. This is probably the lightest wind we'll see over the next 24 hours.
The Wind
NAM at 7am Friday, wind speeds in kts.
Each model run shows sustained wind speeds getting higher and higher. The latest NAM and ECMWF show 35mph+ winds. That should be enough to see gusts above 50 mph for some places here in Central Ohio. On a normal day those gusts would be enough to cause issues here, but this time will be a little different. Temps will drop drastically as the front passes, and leading in to tomorrow morning we could see wind chills in the teens, easily.
As for timing, winds should hit their peek by tomorrow morning, however we'll see the real uptick in speeds as the front passes later this afternoon/evening. I expect that time frame to be between 5pm-7pm.
These gusts will easily knock out power in some locations and cause some trees to go down. All of our area is under a Wind Advisory:
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55
MPH.
* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...SCATTERED TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SOME MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IN THE HIGHEST GUSTS.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
The Snow
NWS Wilmington warnings as of noon Thursday.
Of course the most interesting part of this storm is the snow. Each new analysis calls for more and more snow for us here in Central Ohio. Here's the latest Advisory for us in the Columbus area:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...
* HAZARD TYPES...STRONG WINDS AND SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 INCHES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL OHIO.
* TIMING...THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS... AS
WELL AS A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING WITH WET
ROADS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE FROM
STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.
* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55
MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...FALLING QUICKLY FROM THE 40S INTO THE 20S TONIGHT...REMAINING
AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH STRONG WINDS.
Yesterday when the advisory was issued it really didn't sound like more than an inch or two with blowing snow being the biggest issue. Now western parts of the area could touch 4 inches. I'm still not convinced on those high of numbers, plus reports will probably be all over the place with some measurements being in snow banks or on blown surfaces.
Here is my snowfall predictions for the area:
Snowfall predictions for Draco.
For us in Southeastern Franklin County I am going with 2" for this event.
I plan on updating tomorrow.
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