October 14th: Severe Weather and Wind

By: Buckey2745 , 3:14 PM GMT on October 14, 2012

At least a couple times during fall we have these scenarios set up: a strong low pressure ejects from the plains, butted up against a strong high pressure and warmer air, and we get the tightening pressure gradients and high wind. Fall is also our second severe season around here, with many significant events happening in October in history, so it's no surprise to see one of these systems bring us a chance of storms.

The SPC has us under our first Slight Risk in quite a while:

This event will bring two dangers. Wind and tornadoes.

First the wind risk. We're already under a wind advisory as winds will just barely be in advisory criteria, gusts around 45mph this afternoon. When you combine the already high winds mixing down from higher levels and add thunderstorms, any storms that develop could easily have gusts around 60mph or even higher.

The NAM 300mb model for this afternoon depicts a pretty strong wind field with the line of storms (or lines of storms) that should develop:

Because of the strong wind field and angle of attack of this system, we should have a very strong low level shear. This is a good setup for short lived, weak tornadoes. If they develop they will be in a squall line, not from supercells, so detection on radar will be pretty difficult to pick up.

Just about every year we have a significant event in October. Will today be this years?

This storm didn't pan out like expected. Our wind advisory stayed posted all day, but we never peaked higher than 34mph, which is a solid 12mph under advisory criteria.

Also the severe threat never really developed either. We did have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning late yesterday evening, but even that was jumping the gun as it got cancelled halfway through the timeframe.

No measurable rain, moderate winds, and a phantom Warning. That's been the story of the past few months here in Central Ohio.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 13
Tornado Watches: 3
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 2
Flood Warnings: 1
Heat Advisories: 8
Excessive Heat Warnings: 6
Red Flag Warnings: 1

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5:26 PM GMT on October 25, 2012
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About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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