Winter Storm 4, Part 2

By: Buckey2745 , 8:34 PM GMT on January 27, 2009

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The second round of this winter storm looks to bring us the most significant snowfall of the season.

This storm, often refered to as an "App Runner" because of its tendancy to follow a path along the Appalachian Mountains, brings an abundance of moisture. The second round should start this evening, and run straight through mid-afternoon Wednesday.

The heaviest of the moisture should move through between 1am and 4am, bringing the majority of our snowfall totals.

This storm is tricky because, again, we have the chance for ice. It appears that most of the accumulating ice will stay south of our area, but for a short time during the heaviest snowfall period, we could see a switch over to sleet. If this happens, snowfall totals could drop significantly. If we don't see any switch over, snowfall could be much more significant.

Snowfall totals for round two.

This should be an accurate representation of snowfall totals, but maybe not the location of these totals. Again, with weather it can be a guessing game. Two factors could send these totals up or down:

Deformation Axis
This is a line of the heaviest precipitation. The latest forecast models have it setting up shop south of Chillicothe. This will bring major ice accumulations along that line, but will also send snow accumulations up to the north, where it appears a line from Delaware to Xenia could even see as much as a foot of snow. If this precipitation doesn't develop the intensity predicted, these totals go down.

Location of Warm Air Aloft
The wildcard in this storm is the warm air aloft which will give us icing conditions. If the low pressure moves further south, so will the warm air. This means you can take the snowfall predictions and move them further south. Meaning Columbus could get the foot of snow, not Delaware. At the same time, everything could move further north and you could be looking at ice accumulation in the southern Columbus Metro, and heavier snow near Marion.

Expect .25" of ice south of Cincinnati and Chillicothe, and up to .75" south of Piketon and Logan.

Storm Synopsis
A Winter Storm Warning encompasses the entire area, excluding counties in the far northwest. Snow totals could be significant, but if I had to guess I'd say we'll see less than predicted. Sleet may last 2-3 hours around the I-71 corridor, dropping totals around northern Pickaway County to the 3-4" range. Right now, I say 5". Columbus, as much as 7".

Season Snow Totals
January: 8" (Predicted: 8")
December: 3" (Predicted: 1.5")
Season: 11"

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 29 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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