I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.
By: Buckey2745 , 4:37 PM GMT on August 31, 2012
We're less than 24 hours away from seeing the first Isaac-related precipitation, and honestly the first significant rainfall we've seen in quite a long time. It appears that models have come in to agreement on Cincinnati-based track, which should give us the bulk of the rain from this system. This is amazing news for our drought.
The HPC's latest QPF still is sticking us somewhere between 3" and 4" of rain from this event:
In terms of the actual event, it'll be a slow start to any precipiation, with an eventual ramp up to a Monday soaker when the center passes over Ohio.
With the southerly flow on the east side of this system we should expect to see this storm tap in to some Gulf moisture and rotate multiple waves of precipitation in to the Great Lakes region.
In the ECMWF model you can see the best example of a northward progressing line of rain that should be experienced multiple times before the bulk moves in:
I feel like the HPC's estimates are high for a reason. We have no idea how much rain these waves will produce, where they'll be, and if we'll see any training.
I still feel confident in saying a solid 2" for this weekend in to early next week. The entire weekend won't be a wash out, but chances are you won't see much sun after today, either.
I don't plan on updating until Tuesday unless flooding starts to ramp up this weekend. Happy Labor Day, everyone!
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