Isaac and Ohio - 3 Days Out

By: Buckey2745 , 2:43 PM GMT on August 29, 2012

The nation has been watching has Hurricane Isaac made its way toward Louisiana this week. Right now Isaac still sits as a hurricane as it skirts the coast and its large eye is currently centered over Houma, Louisiana. I love watching the tropics, but I don't write about it as much on here. However this storm is important for Ohio, as the reminants may bring us some much needed rain.

Right now the computer models aren't in 100% agreement with the track of Isaac much past Friday or so. I layered the "cone of uncertainty" on top of the model ensemble to show exactly how wide of a swath the center could go:

You always hear forecasters warn people not to focus so much on where a hurricane is supposed to make landfall because of the large area the storm can impact. Obviously that is very true of an inland storm. So while consensus takes the center north of here, the real impact is coming from where the precipitation will fall. Right now it appears as the storm curves to the east, most of the rain will be in the eastern quadrant of the low pressure. With that, we're looking at a pretty good amount of rainfall with this storm.

As of now the HPC has a 5 day precip forecast that puts us in an area of about 2.5" - 3" through Monday:

Still, the heaviest rain seems to be trending a little north of us here in Central Ohio. Also, each model run has Isaac losing more and more mositure content as it moves further east. The one thing we have going for us if we have hopes of a heavy rain maker, is each model also brings the center closer and closer to Central Ohio.

I always like to go conservative on forecasts and estimates. I do think we will definitely get some kind of measurable rainfall this weekend, but timing and amount is still up in the air. I say rain starts Saturday morning and goes clear through until Monday morning, giving us about 2" here in Columbus.

I'll update as Isaac gets closer.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 12
Tornado Watches: 3
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 2
Flood Warnings: 1
Heat Advisories: 8
Excessive Heat Warnings: 6
Red Flag Warnings: 1

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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