February 10-11 Snow

By: Buckey2745 , 7:41 PM GMT on February 10, 2012

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I guess winter is kicking up a little bit, relatively speaking. We're under our 4th Winter Weather Advisory of the season because of a shot of snow this evening and tomorrow morning. The Advisories stay along and south of I-70 due to not meeting advisory criteria in the north.


Advisories as of 2pm on Feb. 10th

We have two areas of snow to worry about. One that's kicking up right now, and the more substantial wave tonight after dark.


Map showing our two areas of snow


This afternoon's snow is having difficulty because of a dry lower atmosphere. Right now light snow is falling, but the flakes are very tiny and dry. Temps are near freezing, but this type of snow isn't very condusive for accumulation, so I don't expect anything out of this initial wave.

The second area will move in after dark with the main cold front. Moisture is actually increasing with this, with a little more forcing from the front.

Snowfall Amounts
The NWS is calling for a little more snow to the north, but I honestly see this as being a fairly uniform snowfall event. No one should be more than an inch apart. Given that, I'm going with the HPC's QPF, multiplying the latest forecast snow to water ratios (which have been increasing with each model run) to determine how much snow we'll see with this system.

Looking at the next 24 hours the QPF is calling for 0.16" of water. The latest model runs look between 15/1 and 20/1 water to snow ratio, which is a pretty good and wet snow.

Given those numbers, the exact amount would be between 2.4" and 3.2" of snow for this event.

While I love precision more than anyone, I can't go on that alone for an estimate. So far this winter I've been under and over on my personal predictions. But this event feels good, like we really could get our biggest snow of the season.

So for us here in Pickaway County, I say 3" of snow.

UPDATE: 9:44pm, Friday
It really seems like my 3" prediction is going to be off. Honestly temps haven't dropped yet. It's snowed all afternoon and night, but with temps around 34°, it's difficult for accumulations to last. We have a decent dusting right now, but with the amounts we've recieved, it should be much higher. The latest disussion from the NWS in Wilmingtong highlights this:

THE OSCILLATING FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
MAKE PINPOINTING LOCAL HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS DIFFICULT. ALL IN
ALL...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.


We've got a few more hours of snow to go, so we could make that up, but it seems unlikely.


Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 4
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
November: 0" (Predicted: 0")
December: 0" (Predicted: 0")
January: 3.5" (Predicted: 4")
February: 1.5" (Predicted: 0.5")
Season: 5"

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 29 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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