Weekend Rain Brings Flood Threat... Again

By: Buckey2745 , 9:07 PM GMT on March 03, 2011

This is starting to sound like a broken record. More rain, more chances for flooding. Ground saturation, total runoff, QPF, deluge, early Spring... and on and on and on. These are all keywords you've probably heard enough of from my blog over the past two weeks. Now we're anticipating our fourth heavy rain event during that span, and frankly tensions are high here in Central Ohio. Depending on how much rain we get, we could either have a rainy weekend or a weekend with flood waters spilling in to the streets.

So lets get right down to it. The HPC's 3 Day QPF is showing we are in line for 2" or more of rain through Sunday. On swollen rivers and completely saturated ground, that's a lot. Honestly an inch would be too much at this point.

Days 1-3 QPF

We got lucky during the last storm when most rain fell north and south of us. That doesn't mean we didn't get the river flooding, as the Scioto here in Pickaway is still above flood stage (probably from upstream rainfall). It appears with this forecast that we're right back in the heaviest of the precipitation.

The Setup
This is going to be a long, drawn out storm. We won't see constant rain, but rather wave after wave of moderate rain. Precip should start late tonight and honestly not stop until the wee hours of Sunday morning. That's a long time.

We're going to see rain well out ahead of the main system, because of a strong LLJ and Gulf moisture being pumped in. The ingredients are there for a prolonged rain-out, which is really the last thing we needed.

Friday afternoon NAM, depecting our weather pattern for the weekend

At this point it's really hard to forecast where the heaviest rain will fall. Studying a computer model forecast won't do you any good, because there's no way to know where the heaviest thunderstorms will dump and exactly where the rain will train. Just like the last three storms, we're going to have to wait and see.

What's unfortunate is I don't think it really matters how much rain we get here in South Bloomfield... or anywhere else. This system is going to dump over 2" of rain somewhere in Ohio, and that rain is going to runoff directly in to swollen rivers. Places like Auglaize County in Western Ohio are still under water. At least 4 river gages in Central Ohio are reporting moderate flooding. These flooded areas haven't even had time to crest, and now we're going to dump more.

A Flood Watch has been posted west of here, but by daybreak I fully expect it to be extended over most of Central Ohio. It's unfortunate, but I think this could be a rough weekend for many of us.

Stay dry, everyone.

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3. nocaneindy
11:07 PM GMT on March 03, 2011
Great blog as always! Boy it would be nice if the heavier stuff sets up south of us both. Still, it's going to be too much regardless.

Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 522
2. Buckey2745
10:25 PM GMT on March 03, 2011
Ironic, my house was just zoned within a few yards of the 100 year flood plain. Fantastic.
Member Since: December 28, 2007 Posts: 664 Comments: 200
1. AnalogueKid
9:54 PM GMT on March 03, 2011
This is going to be full of fail for somebody. Difficult to say at this point but we may be shaping up for a 100 year return period flood event in some places.

I'll be watching closely:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/new/index.php?m=real&r =oh&w=map
Member Since: December 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 132

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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