Winter System 3?

By: Buckey2745 , 12:23 AM GMT on December 15, 2008

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A few hours after posting my previous blog, the forecast models changed, and now we could be looking at an icy mix on Tuesday night. Here's what's coming over the next 48 hours.

A cold front will be moving through tomorrow and droppping temps back down. Mostly rain should be expected with this system. Tomorrow night after the front passes and stalls between KY and WV, we could be looking at a few hours of changeover to snow. I'm not focusing on this part of the forecast because we'll see no more than half an inch of snow Monday night, if any at all.

What concerns me is the sudden icy change for Tuesday night. As this front finally passes, a warm sector will develop ahead of a weak disturbance coming out of the central plains. This warm air will come over top of cooler air and the moisture from the disturbance for a chance of freezing rain Tuesday night in to Wednesday morning.

This is the first run of the models I've seen this in, so the details are kind of sketchy. For now, here's a rough breakdown of where the freezing rain and snow will fall:

Forecast Summary
Since this is the first I have seen this, I have a low confidence that we will see any freezing rain, let alone any ice accumulation. When we see icy systems, it usually comes out of the south, possibly a Gulf system. This seems too unrealistic of a situation.

I'll update tomorrow when everything falls better in to place.

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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