Central Ohio

Dry Slot

By: Buckey2745, 2:41 PM GMT on May 30, 2014

A lot of times we hear the phrase "dry slot" when we're talking about large systems that have dry air get pulled in to the low pressure center and leave an area without precip. Well it seems the past 7-14 days has left Columbus in sort of a dry slot. In the past 7 days I have only recorded 0.07" of rain at my house, even though we have had a couple of heavy rain systems move through, leaving the rest of the area with upwards of 2-3" of rain!

Take a look at the 7 day estimated precip for our area from ILN:


While I wouldn't call this a drought, when you stretch it out to 14 days you see the same sort of "hole" in the heavy precipitation, and I've only measured 0.31" of rain in that time frame. By tomorrow the 14 day will be down to 0.09" of rain for the time frame.

What we are seeing is grass beginning to dry out, flowers beginning to wilt just a little bit, and everything just looking a little dryer. Again, we're not looking at drought, but we're on our way I believe. If we don't start getting some more significant rainfall soon I think we could be looking at a very localized drought. Why localized? Because places just 20-40 miles north and south of us are doing just fine, have been in flood watches and warnings off and on this week, and are probably on a little bit of a surplus for the year.

Chances for rain return multiple days next week, but nothing solid. We're not expecting any definite pouring rains, just chances... just like we had this week. So it'll be hit and miss. Do we finally get a good soaking?

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4
Tornado Watches: 1
Tornado Warnings: 1
Flood Watches: 4
Flood Warnings: 3
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

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Flood Watch for Today

By: Buckey2745, 7:52 PM GMT on May 28, 2014

Kind of ironic that we've been in a bit of a drought lately (0.08" here at home over the past 7 days) but now we're under a Flood Watch?

Well there's good reason, as storms have developed to our north. The possible training that could occur through the overnight hours may dump some heavy rains on us:


Those storms are moving generally west to east, but will eventually start to sag south over our area. Seems like Central Ohio is kind of right in the middle, with more rain over Kentucky too. But eventually we'll get in on the act, and it'll be welcomed rain.

I think ponding on roads and yards will be the main threat today as hail and wind seems pretty unlikely.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4
Tornado Watches: 1
Tornado Warnings: 1
Flood Watches: 4
Flood Warnings: 3
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

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Afternoon Popups Probable Today

By: Buckey2745, 5:06 PM GMT on May 27, 2014

Not really a classic severe weather setup today, but it's more of a classic summer pop up storms scenario. We have a weak boundry providing minimal forcing, low 80's and decent dewpoints giving the instability, and boom... you have pop ups.

We're seeing clouds dot the landscape north of Cincinnati right now and this is where we'll see storms begin to take shape:


For the most part nothing is showing up on radar yet in this area of clouds, but the development of those clouds suggests enough forcing has occurred to bring us some small storms.

I don't think we'll see a Watch at any point today, and I'd be really surprised if any of these storms become severe enough to warrant a Warning. But keep an eye out today, as these storms won't move real fast and could cause some ponding on roadways.

Tomorrow looks to be the better day for storms in terms of coverage, but again we're not looking at any sort of classic severe setup.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4
Tornado Watches: 1
Tornado Warnings: 1
Flood Watches: 3
Flood Warnings: 3
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

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LiveBlog: May 21st Severe Weather

By: Buckey2745, 2:56 PM GMT on May 21, 2014

10:50am
For the second day in a row we have a Slight Risk of severe weather, but today's chances are better than yesterday.

But I don't think today will be a slam dunk severe setup. The forcing will be there as a front sags south, out of the position it was in yesterday that caused all of the severe weather in the Chicago area. But our instability may actually be an issue. Cloud cover is prevalent today and we probably won't see much clearing before the afternoon like we had last Wednesday.

The latest HRRR shows storms popping up out of nowhere right around 3pm. But will they go severe before passing to our south?



That's going to be the question today... placement of initiation and how much instability we get. I think the Cincinnati area will get the worst of it today.

I'll update after lunch.

1:04pm
We're about to get a Severe Thunderstorm Watch soon, as hinted from the SPC:


I actually think storms may develop just a tad further north than originally anticipated which would put is back in play for more severe weather than I thought.

2:05pm
There it is until 9pm. Very very high probabilities of wind and hail with this. Large hail could be a pretty big issue with low freezing levels:


2:15pm
Maybe I was wrong about storms developing further north. You'll notice on the Watch image above there are two small storms that have developed. One over Lafayette, IN and another just east of Columbus, OH. If you draw a line between the two, that's where the boundary is. I imagine all storms will fire along this and move south.

4:08pm
These storms are severe warned and will be moving in to the Columbus area in the next hour to hour and a half:

Updated: 8:10 PM GMT on May 21, 2014

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Severe Weather Possible Today/Tomorrow

By: Buckey2745, 7:56 PM GMT on May 20, 2014

It's like you stole the words out of my mouth...


When I woke up this morning and saw how they had the Slight Risk positioned, it looked a lot like something we would see when forecasting the track of a derecho, like the one a couple years ago.

Then the latest Outlook came out and the Slight Risk has actually been moved north of the Columbus area. The latest HRRR shows why, as a multi-line derecho may actually develop sometime close to midnight, but then will actually move just north of us:


I actually think we'll be fine here in Columbus, but tomorrow could be a different story. By mid-morning we could be catching the tail of tonight's potential derecho... some clearing... followed by some pretty strong storm development in the afternoon. This is where our real threat will be for the next 36 hours.

I'll post again tomorrow, possibly with a LiveBlog.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4
Tornado Watches: 1
Tornado Warnings: 1
Flood Watches: 3
Flood Warnings: 3
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

Updated: 8:03 PM GMT on May 20, 2014

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Spring Retreats; It's Rainy Season

By: Buckey2745, 9:58 PM GMT on May 17, 2014

It's been a rollercoaster for us here in Central Ohio. For a while there it looked like Spring not only ramped up, but may have gone ahead and transitioned in to Summer with 5 days of 80°+. But then Wednesday happened. With that one day of severe weather, we got a much colder airmass ushered in on the backside. The result? Cold.

Ok, not cold like we were used to back in the Winter, but for the middle of May... yes... cold.

Yesterday and today? Never cracked the 60° mark. Barely making it to 55°, in fact! We were only a couple degrees away from 90 earlier in the week, so this is a bit of a shock for everyone. Tonight should be our coldest night in a while as we will be in the mid 30's outside of the city. A frost advisory has been issued for most of the state. Huge difference from 87° on Tuesday!

On top of the cold temps, how about some rain? We have had measurable precip 8 of the last 9 days, totaling 4.27" so far. We could add on to that as our day goes on today.

It's been an ugly day out there. Off and on rain showers all day has given way to sun on rare occasions, but I would bet we have had at least 5 individual showers here at my house today, with the last one being the most significant... including hail! Yes, the freezing levels of the atmosphere have dropped very low, allowing any heavier rain makers to produce hail. We just had some here in Canal Winchester about 15 minutes ago.

But don't worry, true Spring-like weather is on its way. Every day during the work week coming up will be in the 70's! So hold out just a little bit longer... Spring will make a comeback.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4
Tornado Watches: 1
Tornado Warnings: 1
Flood Watches: 3
Flood Warnings: 3
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

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Summary: Tornado Warned Storm for Columbus Area

By: Buckey2745, 11:48 PM GMT on May 14, 2014

With as many storms as we had around us today we were bound to finally get hit with one and we did.

For the first time this year we had a Tornado Warning for our area. And not just a glancing blow, this storm was headed right toward us. As the tornado sirens went off I checked the velocity high res radar and saw a classic rotation to the storm off to our south:


This was when the storm was about 25 minutes away, centered just south of Ashville. It was apparent there was incredible low level rotation as the radar angle was at 0.50° angle. No tornado had been reported on the ground but the warning was warranted.

However....

It was a dud. Less than 5 minutes before the rotation reached the Canal Winchester area, it fell apart. And didn't just gust out... it died. As the storm hit we never got a gust over 13mph, but we did get about 0.57" of rain.

This was the first time in a long time I truly worried for the well being of my family. The radar signature was perfect and the environment was perfect. It just wasn't meant to be.

The severe threat has passed. The atmosphere has been absolutely worked over and we turn our eyes to storms to our south and west that will bring heavy rain. We could get up to another inch of rain by sunrise.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4
Tornado Watches: 1
Tornado Warnings: 1
Flood Watches: 3
Flood Warnings: 3
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

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LiveBlog: May 14th Severe Weather

By: Buckey2745, 11:58 AM GMT on May 14, 2014

This is a liveblog covering the severe weather possible for the Central Ohio area this afternoon. Updates will be in chronological order with the newest at the bottom of the entry.

7:49am
This is our biggest severe weather day of the year so far with our best chance of actually seeing some decent storms this afternoon. The SPC has had us in a Slight Risk ever since Monday morning for today's event, so we've known for a while this was coming. Looks like Mother Nature didn't let us down.

The Setup
We've had days this week with more instability than today. At the peak today we may reach 2000 J/kg. But what we have today that makes things dangerous? Forcing. A nearly stationary front off to our west will inch its way through Illinois and Indiana and give us that spark we've been needing.

What makes today not a slam dunk is the abundant moisture and cloud cover that comes with the front. A large area of rain and cloud cover will be passing very close to us as it moves up from the south to nearly due north. It's the area to the immediate east of that, where some clearing will take place and instability can be realized, that we will see discrete supercells shortly after lunch time:


I think the Columbus area is right on the edge of the cloud shield which makes it difficult to tell whether we'll be able to destabilize enough. I personally think we get enough sunshine in the late morning hours to give enough fuel for the 2-5pm timeframe when storms will really begin to explode. There is plenty of shear also, so any supercell that develops should rotate.

Keep an eye on the sky today. I'll post more all day.

10:26am
Early morning pop ups have moved out of the area, northward with the advancing warm front. That leaves us in the warm sector with a quickly growing clear slot that should help produce instability for when the low pressure center gets closer to us:


If storms ONLY pop in the clear slot, we're looking at points east of Columbus to be the focus area for supercells this afternoon. Now we wait....

1:22pm
And now it begins.

First we have our first Severe Thunderstorm Warning of the day in Pickaway County for a storm that will head toward Columbus soon. We need to keep a close eye on this because the way these storms are blowing up this afternoon, they'll become severe fast and they'll rotate. If they start to rotate, they will have a good chance at dropping tornadoes. Here's the Pickaway storm right now:


And as that storm got warned, the SPC finally put out our Tornado Watch:


This lasts until 9pm tonight, so expect these storms to fire up very very rapidly this afternoon and just about every storm will become severe. This will be an extremely active day. I think we have a 60% chance of seeing a tornado warning in our area today.

1:47pm
The warning has just been extended to eastern Franklin County for this storm. It's going to have hail and I think it's slowly beginning to rotate in the lower levels:


3:00pm
To top it off we have a Flood Watch in effect. With as much rain as we've had lately, we will most likely see some high rivers and streams when the main batch of heavy rain comes in.

3:15pm
We have our second Severe Thunderstorm Warning of the day for parts of Franklin County, this time over the southeastern portion of the county, for a cell that has developed in Pickaway County. This cell is further east than the first one, so the Columbus area will just barely get swiped with this one:


5:26pm
I feel like we're about to pass the worst of the severe threat. With this larger area of rain and storms to our south, the atmosphere appears it'll officially be worked over:


There aren't any other storms developing to the south of this area... at least no other discrete supercells like we've dealt with all afternoon.

Instead we should shift our attention to the heavy rain threat. A couple lines of storms have developed to the west and will slowly make their way in to our area. But these storms will train over the same spots over and over again. With saturated grounds already, we will absolutely see flooding by tomorrow afternoon in our area.

5:59pm
This storm has a tornado on the ground north of Xenia with a debris signature on dualpol radar:


This is not good for those folks north of Xenia.

On top of that we have to two cells to our south that are tornado warned. Those storms will head in our direction. One is passing east of Chillicothe, and the other is heading directly for Circleville. The Circleville storm is what we need to look out for here in the Columbus area.

Updated: 10:04 PM GMT on May 14, 2014

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It's Soggy - More Storms Today?

By: Buckey2745, 6:37 PM GMT on May 12, 2014

We've had quite a bit of rain lately here in Central Ohio. At my house over the past four days we have totaled 2.55" of rain. That's pretty substantial considering we didn't top that total any one month from January through March. We just topped it in four days.

But to truly understand how wet it's been here in the Columbus area you have to start counting raindrops from April 28th until now. That late April rain we had was the beginning of this soggy stretch, and when you add all of that up that's a grand total of 4.83" of rain in all in just a two week period. Two weeks! How does that work out for total rainfall for the year? Well we've seen a total of 12.27" on the year, which means the past two weeks have been almost 40% of our total rain this year.

We've seen some flooding here and there, but luckily nothing serious. Driving in to work this morning I noticed quite a bit of yard flooding, but that's typical after a heavy overnight rain.

That overnight rain? Well I eluded to it in my post yesterday evening that I thought we had a chance for some overnight storms. A large, well organized MCS dove down from just south of Chicago and headed toward Columbus, dropping 0.77" of rain in the overnight hours. While we were sleeping, this is what the radar looked like:


Looks impressive, but I didn't record any high winds with what appears to be a massive bow echo... almost derecho-like. Instead just some thunder and lightning and heavy rain.

So, more of the same today?
Well, if you look at the forecasted CAPE by this evening you'd think we're in for a pretty dangerous day as CAPE is forecasted in the 3500 J/kg range:


Just like yesterday the SPC has opted to keep Central Ohio out of the Slight Risk area, but I think we have another shot at afternoon popups again just because of the extremely unstable airmass. Something not being discussed is high level windshear, which if you just look out the window and pay attention to high level and low level cloud movements, might be strong enough to spin a couple storms if they're in the right environment.

I'll post again later if we get some storms heading our way. Right now there are small showers beginning to pop to our southwest, so expect something to happen in the next 3-5 hours.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2
Tornado Watches: 0
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 2
Flood Warnings: 3
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

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Mother's Day Storms

By: Buckey2745, 10:55 PM GMT on May 11, 2014

6:46pm
On a day without any Slight Risk forecasted for our area, we have a Tornado Warning north of Dayton right now with a cluster of storms that has developed in the afternoon sun.


Circulation isn't very tight in this storm on velocity, but it does have the potential for high winds and hail.

If there is enough rotation in this storm for a spinup, it'll be rain wrapped and very short lived.

I'll keep an eye on this cluster as it heads toward Columbus.

8:51pm
The storms eventually made their way east towards Columbus and sparked our second Severe Thunderstorm Warning of the season. The storm doesn't seem like it'll deliver much of a punch as the VIL shows little hail and winds may not gust above 30mph.


But could still dump half an inch of rain on us since it's not exactly moving quick. I get the feeling the NWS did another one of their precautionary city warnings. They're pretty well known for that.

I wouldn't be surprised if it stormed off and on throughout the night as there are more storms back in Indiana. Everything will eventually begin to die out with the sun going down, though.

9:07pm
Close enough. Had a 36mph gust with the onset of the storm. Really good lightning out of this one, too.

Updated: 1:08 AM GMT on May 12, 2014

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I'm Back, So Is Spring

By: Buckey2745, 1:12 PM GMT on May 09, 2014

I'm back!

Wait, I didn't tell you I left?

Oh yeah, sorry about that. I got married on April 26th! Then a 10 day honeymoon in beautiful Jamaica where weather was not an issue at all.

So needless to say, I've missed some things. Like the 2.31" of rain my weather station saw on the last three days of April. That prompted a flood warning, along with a storm that spawned a severe thunderstorm warning.

And then I come back from the warm and humid Caribbean to find... the warm and humid Central Ohio area! Every day since I've been back it's been in the 80's, with each day coming very close to a daily record. Before May 7th, I hadn't recorded an 80 degree day since October 2nd of 2013! So it felt like we went from winter to summer. Pretty typical of Ohio, huh?

So how about weather coming up soon? We're looking at three straight days where there's a chance for precipitation, with today I believe being the best chance for storms:


While we aren't quite in the Slight Risk area for today, I think by the evening and overnight hours we could see some storms from the south begin to nose in to our area. I don't think it's a very good chance, but it's our best chance in the new few days.

Now we're back to Spring weather in Ohio. Maybe we'll see some good storms soon?

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1
Tornado Watches: 0
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 2
Flood Warnings: 3
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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Eric

Personal Weather Stations

Lehman Estates
Canal Winchester, OH
Elevation: 754 ft
Temperature: 68.1 °F
Dew Point: 62.1 °F
Humidity: 81%
Wind: 6.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 12.0 mph
Updated: 9:30 AM EDT on September 20, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations