Central Ohio

July 23rd: Severe Weather Possible

By: Buckey2745, 6:24 PM GMT on July 23, 2013

Another day, another watch. But this time it's not for flooding, rather severe weather. We now have our sixth Severe Thunderstorm Watch of the season:



Since these storms are developing pre-frontal, don't expect this broken line just to our west be the end of it today. The watch goes until 10pm because more will develop in our unstable atmosphere.

Todays threat will be high winds and hail, with little shear present for tornadoes.

I'll update if anything becomes severe.

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July 22nd: And More Rain

By: Buckey2745, 2:43 PM GMT on July 22, 2013

Central Ohio can't catch a break when it comes to rain. For the Wilmington, OH forecast area this is the 32nd consecutive day with measurable rain. Of course for us here southeast of Columbus it's not been quite that many days, but we are at 10 out of 22 days with rain. And the third straight day we've got rain out of this soaker of a system.

Central Ohio is under a Flash Flood Watch through this evening, our fifth of the year. On top of that, western Franklin County, including Columbus, is under a Flash Flood Warning because of a heavy cell that has continued to back build over the area for the past two hours.


Via AHPS, past 30 days precip above normal

The image above says it all, with absolutely saturated soils. Then combine a moisture rich system coming up from our southwest and it's a recipe for flooding.

Today's rain will bring heavy rainfall rates and flooding, there is no doubt about it. A storm currently sitting over eastern Franklin County has dumped 1.10" of rain in 20 minutes on my weather station, and possibly extending the Flood Warning further east.

I will update shortly with more information on more storms to come today...

UPDATE: 1056am
Up to 1.67" from this storm over eastern Franklin.

UPDATE: 1103am
Up to 1.80" from this storm over eastern Franklin.

UPDATE: 1111am
Up to 1.89" from this storm over eastern Franklin. A small tail has developed on the storm and may dump another tenth in the next 20 minutes. This has been one of the heaviest rains I have had in the year+ I have lived in this location.

Today's Remaining Outlook

The first round of rain has finally moved out of the area, with most of Franklin County blanketed with 2" radar estimates. In Canal Winchester I have ended up with 2.10". This amount is impressive on its own, but we're not done.



A second round of rain will skirt the southern part of Columbus, possibly bringing just a little more rain to our total. Also I'm keeping an eye out for a third round with more development off to the west in Indiana. With PWATS over 2" today, any rain that develops will bring heavy rain with it. I expect Columbus may end up with over 3" before this event is all said and done.

Already my monthly total is at 6.85"... well above normal. This July could be a record setter with 9 days left to go.

Updated: 3:53 PM GMT on July 22, 2013

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July 17th: Heating Up

By: Buckey2745, 3:19 PM GMT on July 17, 2013

For the first time this summer the Columbus area is under a Heat Advisory. Temps in the low 90's and dewpoints in the low 70's are forecasted to push the heat index as high as 102°. But I think it'll go higher.

On Monday I recorded a heat index of 101°. Yesterday? 103°. Todays dewpoints are forecasted to be even higher than yesterdays, so I predict a high heat index of 105°. That's oppressive.

This always happens once a year, usually around July or August, a major warm up brings out the heat advisories and calls to check on your elderly neighbors and stay out of the sun during the peak heating.

Already today at 10:40am I recorded a temp of 87° with a heat index of 98°. That's what you get with a dewpoint of 76° I suppose.

You can track today's heat index from this image, updated every minute:


Relief in Sight
While this heat wave isn't a truly major heat wave by definition, it's still hot enough to make us all want a cool down. Well, it's coming in the form of severe storms this weekend.

The SPC has been tracking this next round of storms accurately every since Sunday, an unheard of 6 day outlook.

As of now here is the current Saturday outlook for location.



I'll post more once model guidance becomes a little more clear on our risk.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 5
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 7
Tornado Watches: 1
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 4
Flood Warnings: 0
Heat Advisories: 1
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

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July 10th: The Last Round

By: Buckey2745, 3:36 PM GMT on July 10, 2013

Finally, reprieve from a cold front arrives overnight.

But before we can get to a cool down and an eventual stop to our deluge, we have one more day of severe weather and heavy rain ahead of us. And this could be a pretty big one.

Our focus today will be from a MCS over Illinois that should bring the forcing we need later on. The system itself is slowly progressing eastward, but with storms on more of a southeasterly march I don't think the actual MCS itself will be our severe weather of the day. Instead I expect an outflow boundary to develop out ahead of this as storms begin to rain out and push cooler air in to our extremely unstable airmass:



Speaking of our airmass, it's 11:30am and the heat index is 95°. That's because of an oppressive dewpoint of 76.7°!. This is some of the most moist conditions I believe I have seen in a long time around here. This is tropical in nature.

When you combine all of these things, we could really be looking at some big wind and hail producing storms this afternoon, along of course with flooding rains. Our Flash Flood Watch is still in effect for the rest of the day, and with absolutely saturated grounds throughout the state, one tiny storm could over run creeks and streams. When you factor in that the storms today will absolutely be heavy rain makers, there is no doubt that today will be a volatile day.

I plan on updating later with Watches and forecast updates.

UPDATE: 12:50pm
There's our watch, our sixth of the season:


The SPC points at high wind events being our main threat, but also highlights our extremely high PWATs and high flood risk.

UPDATE: 1:46pm
Looks like I was wrong about a second line coming from an outflow boundary. It appears the entire MCS has congealed in to a large squall line.



Smaller cells are slowly developing in the soupy airmass out ahead of the main system, and those very well could become severe in a short amount of time. But the main event will get here sometime near or after evening rush hour, between 6pm and 8pm.

Updated: 5:51 PM GMT on July 10, 2013

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July 9th: Severe Weather and Flooding Threat

By: Buckey2745, 7:00 PM GMT on July 09, 2013

The NWS in Wilmington put out an interesting public information statement today saying that our soggy streak has lasted 19 days now. While my weather station wasn't on the list of top rainfall totals, I can verify over the last 19 days I have totaled 3.82" of rain, with yesterday's 1.25" being the high water mark... literally I guess.

Because of all of the rain lately, any chance of decently accumulating rainfall lately has brought on a Flash Flood Watch. Yesterday was no different, bringing us our 4th watch of the season. And so far the watch stands, as they have extended it twice already, the latest lasting us until tomorrow night.

On top of the flood threat, a severe weather threat is present with instability really ramping up this afternoon. Aside from CAPE and other factors, you can FEEL the instability out there. Currently I have a dewpoint of 76.1°! That is absolutely insane. Even with a temp of 87° that still puts the heat index and an absolutely oppressive 98.6°.

A setup like that prompted the SPC to move the Slight Risk in to our area for this afternoon, and then again for tomorrow:



The SPC already has a MD out for our area hinting at the potential for a Watch here in the next couple hours.



High instability but low shear points at possible heavy rain and hail storms. No good chance of rotation, or much of a bow potential for high wind, so this afternoon will be just about like every other afternoon for the past 19 days.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Chance: 70%
Tornado Warning Chance: 1%

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 5
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Tornado Watches: 1
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 4
Flood Warnings: 0
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

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July 4th Flood Watch

By: Buckey2745, 2:55 AM GMT on July 05, 2013

The NWS has us under a Flash Flood Watch through tomorrow night as a large plume of Gulf moisture has our entire area under the risk for heavy rain the entire time.

Flood Watches stretch all the way from the Florida Panhandle to Lake Erie:



So far since the watch came out we've only had 0.16" of rain, but very heavy rain with embedded storms line up all the way to the Kentucky/Tennessee line:



This has been one of the coolest July 4th's on record with a high here in Canal Winchester of 76°, and more rain coming to keep the temp low.

It's possible we could see an additional 2" before the end of the weekend. I'll update with local rain totals later.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 5
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Tornado Watches: 1
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 3
Flood Warnings: 0
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

Updated: 2:55 AM GMT on July 05, 2013

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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Personal Weather Stations

Lehman Estates
Canal Winchester, OH
Elevation: 754 ft
Temperature: 69.2 °F
Dew Point: 45.2 °F
Humidity: 42%
Wind: 4.0 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Updated: 6:36 PM EDT on September 23, 2014

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