Central Ohio

Summary: Ohio's Winter Storm Q

By: Buckey2745, 2:56 PM GMT on February 22, 2013



Winter Storm Q has come and gone here in Central Ohio and it left behind a nice glazing of ice. All schools are shut down for the day, and most people are taking it easy, waiting for the ice to melt before venturing out.

No snow fell this morning, which helped keep ice accumulation on the higher end. But the thining out of the moisture as I eluded to yesterday did come to fruition. Because of this decent icing was confined to a time period between 1am and 3am, with another small burst after sunrise.

Here are some images of the storm:


This was Central Ohio's first ice storm of the season, and while it wasn't crippling, it was enough to slow people down quite a bit this morning. Measurments were hard to take this morning because rain actually fell at a high enough rate to be a solid runoff from the trees and bushes. Meaning all ice accumulated on the ground. Obviously that's a good thing, otherwise we could have had power outages. But measuring became difficult. I'd have to guess about 0.20" of ice, more than double what I predicted. Again, these estimates could be high, but I haven't seen any other local ice totals to check.

The next system will move through Monday night, and I'll write about the snow potential this weekend.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 2
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 10.25" (Predicted: 10")
January: 3" (Predicted: 1.5")
February: 7.35" (Predicted: 6")
Season: 20.7"

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Winter Storm Q: Ohio, 12 hours out

By: Buckey2745, 8:36 PM GMT on February 21, 2013



Winter Storm Q is approaching our area this afternoon with the promise of precipitation setting in sometime in the early morning hours. I said yesterday I expected us to have a freezing rain advisory issued for our area, but instead the NWS in Wilmington has gone with a Winter Weather Advisory because of the overall mix of winter weather.

The Storm
Q is a large double barreled low that dropped down out of the Rockies and will be moving northeast from the Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Q is a typical late winter storm with both a snowy and a stormy side.


It's this powerful nature that gives it enough of a warm side to push warm air aloft and set us up for our icing event tonight.

The Setup
This isn't a textbook ice storm. This isn't an easy forecast. But the good news is this shouldn't be a serious event for us here in Central Ohio.

Currently at 2:30pm our temp is 25.9° with a slow rate of climb. We should see it drop just a little after dark, but by the warmer air from Q should start pushing in from the south. It's possible that going up just a couple thousand feet above the surface you could find temps a couple degrees above freezing.

At a glance this appears to be an easy forecast. Precip starts after midnight, temps at the surface don't rise above freezing until a couple hours after sunrise Friday, we should have a decent icing. However...

Temperatures aloft may still be cold enough in some places overnight to support snow in the onset. Of course that would reduce icing totals. I feel like this area will be just north of Columbus, actually leaving us in a favorable for the most icing.

The next trick will be the amount of moisture. Not many forecasters are accounting for the GFS model because of some inconsistancies, but I feel like it may actually be the most accurate when it comes to forecasting what will happen to this storm as it weakens and the jet stream tears it in two.

Below you can see the split of northern and southern moisture. The jet stream will shoot warm air directly in to our area, and I believe will push apart the moisture.



Obviously that would have a huge impact on accumulations, but I feel pretty confident that instead of a nice bow of freezing rain moving in tonight, we should see more of the scattered, broken variety.

Prediction
That being said, I give this storm a pretty good chance of at least hampering travel for us. I predict .25" of snow, followed by a fairly light glazing of ice, maybe close to 0.1".

Luckily temps will rise above freezing shortly after sunrise, meaning any impact on the morning commute should melt off before any afternoon travel.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 2
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 10.25" (Predicted: 10")
January: 3" (Predicted: 1.5")
February: 7.35" (Predicted: 5.75")
Season: 20.7"

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Winter Storm Q: Ohio, Two Days Out

By: Buckey2745, 9:27 PM GMT on February 20, 2013



The past few days have been somewhat active, all things considered, with 1.35" of snow that I never predicted or wrote about. By this point in the season I've become so skeptical of all backside snow, lake effect showers, and just about any small scale event that I discount it. Between Friday, Saturday and yesterday, we got enough snow to put our season snowfall totals over 20"! For those who didn't follow me at the beginning of the season, I predicted 20" for our winter. Not bad.

But now comes Winter Storm Q, the first major US storm to actually have any effect on us in quite some time. Parts of the midwest could be looking at 2 feet of snow from a system that'll pass just west of us but still bring us some winter weather.

The Setup
Yesterday a strong cold front passed through, dropping our temperatures pretty low last night, around 16°. That cold arctic air left behind by the deepening trough will stay in place for at least the next 36-40 hours, setting us up for the next component of the setup.

The storm.


ECMWF Friday morning. Overlayed are the cold (blue) temps at the surface coupled with the warm (red) air aloft. The convergance zone should bring us ice.

"Q" is a deepening low over the midwest that is powerful enough to entend moisture far from the center of the storm, allowing warm air to surge in alot well ahead of the main storm. This means our temperatures near the surface will be in the mid 20's Friday morning, while above freezing in the clouds. With our artic air being shallow, all precip being brought in Friday morning should fall as rain or sleet, with everything freezing on contact.

Most computer models are suggesting the system weakening as it reaches us, meaning there may not be a ton of moisture with this system, at least not during our prime freezing time.

What this means is we could have a few dicey hours Friday morning until the warm air finally overtakes all levels of the atmosphere, rendering the ground too warm to support freezing rain.

I plan on writing my final predictions tomorrow, but I wouldn't be surprised if by tomorrow afternoon they have a Freezing Rain Advisory for our area.

I'll have an update tomorrow morning.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 2
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 10.25" (Predicted: 10")
January: 3" (Predicted: 1.5")
February: 7.35" (Predicted: 5.75")
Season: 20.7"

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February 13th Snow

By: Buckey2745, 10:04 PM GMT on February 13, 2013

In my last entry I eluded to the possibility of a southern low pressure system that would hit our area today but all models showed this as staying south of us.

Imagine our surprise when it started snowing this morning.

Our temperature was right around freezing so nothing was sticking to the roads, but a particularly heavy band set up in a line from Wilmington to Canal Winchester:



This resulted in 1.75" of snow for us here, while points north and south appeared to get no more than a dusting.

The few reports that are coming in are showing an area from the east side of Cincinnati to southeast of Columbus accumulating from 1.5" to 3.5".

More snow is possible Friday and Saturday which I'll write about tomorrow...

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 2
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 10.25" (Predicted: 10")
January: 3" (Predicted: 1.5")
February: 6" (Predicted: 5.75")
Season: 19.35"

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Nemo's Found

By: Buckey2745, 3:53 PM GMT on February 08, 2013

What is expected to be an historic Nor'Easter is about to hit New England. More specifically the Boston area. I usually don't write much about weather outside of Ohio, but this storm fascinates me because of how all of the pieces are falling in place for a storm of this magnitude to happen. A lot like Superstorm Sandy, everything had to happen just right for us to have a blizzard of this magnitude.

I wrote in my last post about the potential for this to happen, and everything is holding perfectly true to the computer models from a few days ago.

It's incredible to see the NWS in Boston not even have a snow scale large enough to estimate potential snow totals for that area:



Some computer models are indicating areas of over 3 feet of snow!

Storms like this make me look ahead in hopes that we could be getting something extreme soon, however we're looking above average for temps over the next few days and wet. The next chance for snow could be on Wednesday as a new low pressure system develops off of the tail of Monday's front. It's early, and it's clearly wishful thinking, but this could be our southern low we've been looking for all winter. Only the GFS picks up on this feature right now, but obviously we watch anything that resembles a storm that'll ride up the Appilacians.

Until next week...

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 2
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 10.25" (Predicted: 10")
January: 3" (Predicted: 1.5")
February: 4.25" (Predicted: 5.75")
Season: 17.60"

Updated: 3:53 PM GMT on February 08, 2013

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One Last Clipper

By: Buckey2745, 6:54 PM GMT on February 05, 2013

It seems like we've been getting clippers every other day, and yesterday's system was one of our better-producing clippers we've had in a while. Snow totals were all over the board, with 2" in Cincinnati and points eastward, 2" here in Columbus, with almost everywhere else in the state getting barely an inch or less.

So the 2" from yesterday puts us at 4.25" already for the month by the 5th day. Don't expect this average of an inch a day to last, but it's at least gotten us closer and closer to our yearly snowfall average. Better than last year at least.

Tuesday Night Clipper
Tonight's clipper is taking a much more traditional path than yesterday's, swooping down from Minnesota and across the Upper Great Lakes. Most models are looking like the latest RUC:



With each model run showing minor differences I don't see accumulating snow any further southwest of the 33 cooridor.

That would bring some areas close to an inch, but I see 0.5 for us here in Canal Winchester. Bit by bit we're accumulating a decent total for the year, even if we haven't had any big storms.

A Look Ahead
We're finally going to get a break from the constant flow of clippers after tonight, with our next storm system coming in Thursday bringing rain, and then a slight chance of snow showers on the backside.

Then another more powerful system is poised to move through on Monday.

The interesting part of these storms is they will be major players for other parts of the country.

By Friday morning our first system could join with a southern low pressure system to bring a monster Nor'Easter to the Atlantic states:


Follwed by our first of the week storm which could actually be a major blizzard for the Upper Midwest:


It's really too early to tell if they'll be total misses for us, but as of now it's looking like rain events for us here in Central Ohio.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 2
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 10.25" (Predicted: 10")
January: 3" (Predicted: 1.5")
February: 4.25" (Predicted: 5.25")
Season: 17.60"

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February Keeps It Busy

By: Buckey2745, 2:48 PM GMT on February 04, 2013

The weekend promised to be an interesting one with a multiple clipper storm system rolling through our area. However, even an all day snow Saturday couldn't bring us the snowfall totals I predicted.

With no areas in Ohio getting more than 2" it wasn't even worth a snow total map. Here in Canal Winchester we got a very minor 1" from the event.

Monday, February 4th Clipper
It may be unfair to call today's storm a clipper system. It originated in Canada and has the quick-hitter aspects of a clipper, but this storm has enough of a southern characteristic that it may even pull a little gulf moisture.

Usually with clippers we see the low pressure center slide down from Wisconsin or Lake Michigan. This one is centered over southern Illinois this morning, making for a more difficult forecast due to the nature of the moisture placement:



The GFS above surprisingly seems to have the best hold on this system. A northern stream of moisture and a southern stream of moisture appear to be present with this storm, and the potential exists for those two masses to combine at some point, but it appears this could be east of our area.

Just the threat of this storm has already brought out our sixth Advisory of the season:



Where you see the advisories would be a safe bet where we will actually see the most decent snow from this event. Snow will fill in north to south, and because of the two distinct areas of moisture, the southern part of our state may not see much at all.

That being said, this storm will really be a tough one to forecast. The NWS says "2-4 inches" but I really can't see the high end of that forecast being realized. I've been on either side of the forecast lately, but this time I'm staying conservative and saying Canal Winchester will get 2" of snow. The meaningful accumulations will be northeast of Columbus:



Yet another clipper may affect our area tomorrow. I'll follow up in the morning with more.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 2
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 10.25" (Predicted: 10")
January: 3" (Predicted: 1.5")
February: 2.25" (Predicted: 3.25")
Season: 15.60"

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Welcome to February

By: Buckey2745, 1:40 AM GMT on February 02, 2013

It's been a busy past 48 hours since my last post. We ended Wednesday's storm with yet another Severe Thunderstorm Warning, and then an immediate change to snow by Thursday morning.

I predicted a weak 0.25" of snow Thursday. Well, the snow started Thursday and kept coming in waves of showers, straight through until Friday morning. Since the showers didn't stop until Friday, I'm counting the snow total toward February. The final tally was 1.25". Definately a decent day of snow showers.

The interesting part was the end of yesterdays snow sparked our 4th Winter Weather Advisory of the season for blowing snow and freezing conditions on the roads. After that? A Wind Chill Advisory, as wind chills got down to -12° this morning.

Weekend Clippers
So after that snowy Thursday we're not done. Another Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Saturday as two clippers will slide through the area.


NAM for Saturday 1pm

Snow will start around daybreak on Saturday. We shouldn't see really heavy snow, but constant showers that should slowly accumulate over the day. Snow will last straight through until daybreak Sunday.

With this double header of snow I'm thinking we'll see 2" of snow from the first one and 1" with the second one. That will bring our total around the Columbus area to 3" for the entire weekend. If that happens it'll tie for our second biggest snow of the season (most is 3.75" on December 29th).

I've never seen more than 4" or so from a clipper, so I don't expect this to be a major event, but then again 3" does seem to bring this city to a crawl.

I'll update Sunday.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 2
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 10.25" (Predicted: 10")
January: 3" (Predicted: 1.5")
February: 1.25" (Predicted: 0.25")
Season: 14.60"

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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Personal Weather Stations

Lehman Estates
Canal Winchester, OH
Elevation: 754 ft
Temperature: 61.3 °F
Dew Point: 41.5 °F
Humidity: 48%
Wind: 4.0 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Updated: 6:36 PM EDT on September 22, 2014

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