Central Ohio

New Year's Eve Snow, Year End Review

By: Buckey2745, 1:05 PM GMT on December 31, 2012

UPDATE: December 29th Snow
Later in the evening on Saturday a small upper air disturbance associated with the low pressure that brought our snow brought us an additional 0.25" of snow. Since it was loosely associated with the original storm system, I'm counting this toward the storm total giving us 3.75" for the entire event.

New Year's Even Snow
A storm I mentioned a couple days ago effecting us on New Year's Eve will end up only barely bringing us any snow.

Forecast areas to our west could end up seeing 2-4", but it appears most of the precip just won't make it this far east.

I would guess we'll see 1" of snow today, and another dusting after midnight in to sunrise tomorrow morning.

2012 in Review
The year started out with our first snow of winter. Yes. In January. On the 2nd we got about an inch to finally get our season kicked off, followed by our "biggest" storm a couple weeks later... 2".

That was the story of our winter. Not much of one. We ended the season in Circleville (where I lived for the season) with 6.5" of snow. This season we surpassed that total on Saturday.

The severe season started out pretty decent with 6 warnings by the beginning on June. But then this happened:



The June 29th Derecho that everyone here in Columbus will remember for quite a while as much of the city sustained wind damage and power was knocked out for almost 1 million people in Ohio.

After the Derecho we went in to a long term heat wave. 11 straight days above 90° and a couple 100° days. That heat wave contributed to our terrible drought which saw much of our area only recieve 25-50% of our average yearly rainfall.

The rest of our summer went relatively quiet. Not much rain, not much wind. Wait. That could have been because I was using a very outdated WMR-968 weather station to record my data.

So at the end of September I finally took the plunge and bought a new station, the Davis 6250. It's been running perfectly since I hooked it up. From perfect wireless connection, to very accurate rain collection, and very good wind readings. I really couldn't ask for much more.


Probably other than the Derecho, the next most impactful story of 2012 was Superstorm Sandy. The monster that hit the east coast moved on a westward track toward us after landfall. Originally our biggest concern was for high winds, as forecasts called for 55-60mph winds over a 30 hour period! Luckily we never got higher than 39mph that I recorded. So the next threat? Cold and snow:



Computer models kept hinting for days at an inland snow event, and sure enough as the time approached we got a dusting in the early morning hours of October 30th. Nearly a month early for our first snowfall on climatology.

Other numbers:
Highest Temp: 103.1° (July 7th)
Hottest Low: 77.4° (July 6th)
Lowest Temp: 8.8° (January 20th)
Coldest High: 21.6° (January 13th)
Hottest Month: July (Mean Temp: 80.7°)
Coldest Month: January (Mean Temp: 35.9°)

Highest Wind Gust: 90mph (June 29th) (questionable)
Rainiest Day: 1.22" (January 22nd)
Rainiest Month: 3.49" (December)

That's 2012! Happy New Year!

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 9.25" (Predicted: 9")
Season: 9.35"

Updated: 1:50 PM GMT on December 31, 2012

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Summary: December 29th Snow

By: Buckey2745, 11:44 PM GMT on December 29, 2012

What appeared to be a light snow event actually ended up being our largest snow of the season so far. I predicted 2" and we ended with 3.5" of snow overnight.

The heaviest snow ended up setting up further south than I thought it would, so southern counties got the most snow, with some locations getting 6" of snow.

I didn't have time to create a snowfall map so here's the snowfall analysis from the NWS:



We currently have 6+" of snow on the ground, which if it holds on (and it should) would tie for the greatest snow depth to being in the new year.

Helping the snow depth may be another storm that'll roll through on New Year's Eve, possibly bringing just as much snow as our recent one. I'll post more on Monday about this system.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 9" (Predicted: 9")
Season: 9.1"

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Forecast: December 29th Snow

By: Buckey2745, 4:19 PM GMT on December 28, 2012

No more than a few days after Winter Storm Euclid gave us our biggest snowfall in 700+ days (a whole 3"!) another snowmaker is on it's way, and it could bring just as much snow for us here in Canal Winchester. However for the most part this will be a relatively light snow event.

I've been hinting at this snow for a couple days now, and all along I was on the pesimistic side of the forecast. I figured the system being so far south would really limit our totals. Now it looks like this system will interact with a weak shortwave swinging in from the Central Plains to bring an enhanced period of snowfall.

Below are the current locations of the two systems and how they'll come together over our area:


The entire area is now under a Winter Weather Advisory, barely meeting criteria.

The latest QPF shows a decent amount of precipitation could actually overspread the area as these two systems interact, with what appears to be upwards of a 14:1 snow to water ratio. That's good enough to spread quite a bit of our area with a 3" swath of snow. But looking at each model run I get the feeling a heavier band of snow will setup just along and west of the I-71 cooridor, where as much as 4" could be in store. Northwest Columbus could get 4", while southeast could get 2".

The timing is good with this system as it comes overnight and promises an all snow event. Here are my predictions for our area:


I expect 2" of snow here in Canal Winchester, making this a minor event for us, but adding to our snow depth, pretty much promises us a white New Year.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 5.5" (Predicted: 7")
Season: 5.6"

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Summary: Winter Storm Euclid (December 26th)

By: Buckey2745, 4:09 PM GMT on December 27, 2012



Euclid has come and gone and left Central Ohio with a tight gradient of snowfall totals. Almost everyone at least saw some snow, and other saw almost 10" of snow.

Here is the latest snowfall estimates map from the NWS in Wilmington:



I'm in southeastern Franklin County in the 1-3" swath and I'd say that's a pretty accurate depiction as I've measured quite a few places this morning and averaged 3" of snow. However go just 10 miles north of here and the airport got 4.5". Even further north in Franklin County some areas measured 6". That was the nature of this beast.

Of course as I talked about yesterday warm air really pushed in aloft for a long period of time and killed our snowfall totals here in the center of Ohio, but points north and west sure didn't luck out. So far the largest totals I've seen were Coldwater to our northwest near Indiana and Covington northwest of Dayton... both coming in with 10" of snow. They were definitely all snow all day.

What's scary for us is what if we stayed all snow, all day? Well in the hours before we switched over we had some pretty heavy sleet and freezing rain. Before the switchover we had almost an inch of slush on the ground. It's impossible to know how much we could have had, but it's safe to say we could have contended with some of those totals in the western part of the state.

We learned from this storm that no matter the strength, never believe a southern low will bring all snow unless the center passes further south than it did yesterday. The track was supposedly "perfect" for an all snow event, and even then we saw quite a bit of warm air override. Each scenario will be different, but imagine if this storm would have taken the central path of the three? Bringing it straight through central Ohio... we would have seen maybe a dusting on the backside.

Interesting Notes

Our season totals for 2012-2013 are already only 0.9" short of the 2011-2012 totals.

Yesterday's storm total was our largest storm since Janurary 20th, 2011!! That's unofficially 706 days since our last 3+" snowfall.

3" is all we recieved in all of February of this year, traditionally our snowiest month.

What's Next?
No rest for the weary. After not seeing a major snow storm in almost 2 years, we have Draco and Euclid in a one week period.

Coming up we'll see yet another system develop from the Gulf, and take almost the same path as Euclid. However this one is a little different. First, it's weaker. That means not a strong low that'll be pulling in warm moist air up and overtop of the low, so we will stay cold enough for snow throughout the weekend. Second, it'll be a more west to east track, taking it much further south. So far south that we will really only see a chance of snow south and east of the I-71 cooridor, with some of the heaviest falling in the Hocking Hills region south of us.

The latest ECMWF snowfall models show an area of 1-3" of snow across southeastern Ohio:



This storm will begin to affect us Friday night and through the day on Saturday. I'll have a final writeup tomorrow.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 5.5" (Predicted: 7")
Season: 5.6"

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LiveBlog: December 26th, Euclid Hits Ohio

By: Buckey2745, 2:00 PM GMT on December 26, 2012

8:44am
Light snow/sleet mix started around 5am and at some points it became all snow... then all sleet... then a very heavy mix. Just a few minutes ago I stuck my head out the window and noticed gigantic flakes with large sleet and some rain.

Temps overnight hung right around 33° and when precip moved in around 5am dropped to 31.4°. But even now temps are creeping up just a little. That's enough to keep our snowfall totals to nothing so far. Right now out the window:


Nothing more than sleet and slush has stuck around so far. And to make things worse it looks like a dry slot is moving in pretty quickly from the south:


This doesn't mean we won't see snow, I just think totals will be reduced. I now expect 4" here in Canal Winchester, but still as much as 8" just northwest of us on the other side of Columbus in Dublin. Webcams on that side of the city are showing all snow.

11:26am
We're getting some of our heaviest sleet of the day right now. Looking out the window you might mistaken it for snow, but stick your head out the door and there's no doubt it's ice.

We're almost to noon with no snow, so that tells you that we're probably not going to see the snow until we get on the backside of this low, which could be at least a couple more hours. Right now we are right in the path of a warm plume of moisture being pushed up front Kentucky:


All radar returns are showing this as sleet as far south as the Ohio River, and all webcams around the city show nothing but slush and sleet.

There is plenty of backside snow with this system that would have to eventually move through our area, but as the low pulls away from its main source of energy, the Gulf, expect the snow to actually begin to die off quicker than expected from west to east. That means we may only get a handful of hours of accumulating snow.

The 5" mark looks impossible. Best bet now would be 3" for us in Southeastern Franklin County.

11:39am
Almost as soon as I clicked submit the heavy sleet changed to heavy snow. Just like that, it appears all columns are frozen now.

12:30pm
Central Ohio snow emergencies so far. With this being the first major storm of the season, expect to see this entire map filled in from Pickaway County northward by the end of the day, with most under at least a Level 2.



5:06pm
The heavy snow has ended, with some light to moderate snow coming in from the west as the low slides away. So far here in Canal Winchester we have 3" of snow. Well under the 5" I predicted yesterday. However, as I stressed so many times over the past couple days, sleet and freezing rain can kill snow totals. And it did for us today. Without snow kicking in until a little after 11:30am we missed out on the heaviest snowfall.

The NWS has already put out a preliminary map that looks like my contours from yesterday... except less:


From the NWS Wilmington

I can't imagine we will see more than another half an inch overnight. I'll have a full writeup tomorrow summing up the event.

Updated: 10:10 PM GMT on December 26, 2012

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Euclid Will Slam Ohio

By: Buckey2745, 12:06 AM GMT on December 26, 2012



It's Christmas Day, but don't tell Winter Storm Euclid to take a hoilday. What a difference a day makes. Each computer model run over the past few days has trended the storm further west, bringing us closer to the warm core of the storm and reducing our snowfall amounts. Even yesterday I hinted at a snowfall prediction of 1-2". That doesn't seem right now.

Last night our area was placed under a Winter Storm Watch. Then bright and early this morning we were upgraded to a Warning. And then a couple hours ago they upgraded the wording of our warning. First, the warnings for our area:



Blizzard Warnings as close as Marysville have been creeping south and east. Now the 1-2" could be much much more.

Text from the latest warning:

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO
1 AM EST THURSDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.


This storm is going to have a very tight snowfall gradient. You can go 30 miles and probably see 5 more inches of snow. This wording is for all of Franklin County, which means some places may not hit that 6-10" mark. Some may.

I think here in the southeastern part we're right on the fringe of seeing all snow and seeing a mix through the late morning and early afternoon hours that would significantly cut down on totals, since this is the time period when the heaviest snow will fall.

The reason for the sudden change in forecast is the reality that the storm has ejected further south and east than models originall anticipated. Now it appears that the two paths I showed yesterday were innacurate... other than the original in terms of placement relative to Ohio. The low pressure appears to be passing just east of Ohio through Kentucky and West Virginia. If this storm wobbles either way, we will see a huge difference in snowfall totals.

That being said, here's the final prediction on snowfall accumulations:


For us here in Canal Winchester I am going with 5", mainly based off of QPF model estimates. This is assuming we only see a very brief switchover to sleet. Any more or any less will greatly effect this total.

I'll be running a liveblog tomorrow for our first major winter storm in two years.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 2.5" (Predicted: 2")
Season: 2.6"

Updated: 12:07 AM GMT on December 26, 2012

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UPDATE: Euclid and Central Ohio

By: Buckey2745, 4:47 PM GMT on December 24, 2012

Just a quick Christmas Eve update on our midweek storm... most computer models have come in to agreement on a storm track for Euclid of right up the Ohio River in to South Central Ohio, and then an eastward turn toward the Jersey Coast.

Below is yesterday's ECMWF that I posted with the newest predicted track highlighted in yellow:



With this path the freezing rain potential is still there but minimized. It appears our temps Wednesday morning will be hovering right around freezing when the precip starts, but a relatively warm ground could prevent any snow accumulation or freezing rain. It's still uncertain with a system like this exactly what we'll see, but as of now it looks like the 71 cooridor could total an inch or two of snow before and after the passage of the low, with melting inbetween as precip turns to all rain.

Winter Storm Watches are already posted off to our west, and I wouldn't be surprised if they issue a Winter Weather Advsiory for this storm here in the Columbus area as the icing potential is still there.

I'll try to update tomorrow with the final predictions. Merry Christmas!

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Mid-Christmas Week Storm Probable

By: Buckey2745, 10:00 PM GMT on December 23, 2012

Christmas Eve
We were looking at a slight chance of waking up tomorrow morning to an icy start, but the onset of precipitation appears to be later in the day. All rain for Christmas Eve.

Euclid
Wednesday morning we will have Winter Storm Euclid bearing down on us. This storm has the potential to be an absolute monster, but it all depends on its track.

Recently most models have shown the low moving either directly through Central Ohio or through Eastern Ohio. Either solution has us seeing something worse than a big snow storm. Ice.

The ECMWF has been the most consistant model and constantly shows the low passing within a 50 mile swath of Ohio. This would put us under a long period of freezing rain and warm air will override the northern part of the storm, and our surface temps will still be near freezing. This is shown in the white shaded area from the model around 11am Wednesday:



Essentially with this setup we would start with freezing rain for many hours Wednesday morning, transition to rain for a little while as the low passes close, and then wrap around snow.

However, 50 miles west or east could greatly impact our precipitation type.

I'll update tomorrow or Christmas Day with the final prediction.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 2.5" (Predicted: 2")
Season: 2.6"

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Storm Totals: December 21st Snow

By: Buckey2745, 3:24 PM GMT on December 22, 2012

Yesterday's storm has finally passed and has left 2.5" of snow here in Canal Winchester. The largest reprorts I could find were 3" just north of here, and another 3" further north and west.



The finals snowfall totals look close to the revised prediction I put out yesterday morning largely due to a strong band that persistantly stayed over the 33 cooridor for a few hours. The snow lasted from early yesterday morning all the way until about 9pm last night. Had it been more than wrap around moisture, it could have been a pretty decent snow maker.

As I wrote earlier this week, a mid week storm is still forecasted to develop, right after Christmas Day. In fact we'll see a Christmas Eve storm which should bring light precip and even a chance of ending in snow that day. But the Wednesday storm could be our big one.

Yesterday's snow already beat last year's biggest storm total by a half an inch.

UPDATE:
A couple late reports have come in showing 4+" in Licking, Logan and Delaware Counties.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 2.5" (Predicted: 2")
Season: 2.6"

Updated: 10:03 PM GMT on December 22, 2012

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Draco's Impact Minimal on Ohio

By: Buckey2745, 5:34 PM GMT on December 21, 2012

So far Winter Storm Draco has been a fairly weak event for us here in Central Ohio. The two main stories about this storm, wind and snow, haven't really made much of an impact on our area.

Last night and early this morning we saw our highest wind gusts, with 42mph yesterday evening and 40mph this morning right after midnight. Currently winds are staying about the 15-20mph range with some gusts near 30mph. This is what we should expect for the rest of the day.

As for the snow, accumulation has been minimal so far. Without going out and actually measuring, it appears we've gotten about a half an inch, and counting.

With the fetch setting up off of Lake Michigan it appears that the best snow will be northwest of Columbus. Also the 4" that was being called for yesterday seems pretty improbable, so I've modified snowfall total estimates:


New estimates for today's snowfall

I still would bet we will get close to 2" here in Canal Winchester. Snowfall reports are coming in around the area no more than 1", but snow is still consistant.

I'll update later with new totals.

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December 20th - 21st: Draco Hits Ohio

By: Buckey2745, 5:06 PM GMT on December 20, 2012



We're already feeling the effects of this storm here in Central Ohio as we're in the warm sector and getting decently heavy rain. We're already approaching 0.40" of rain in a little under 2 hours.

As rain began to fall our winds actually dropped off significantly. However now we're back up to gusts around 22mph with the steady rain. This is probably the lightest wind we'll see over the next 24 hours.

The Wind

NAM at 7am Friday, wind speeds in kts.

Each model run shows sustained wind speeds getting higher and higher. The latest NAM and ECMWF show 35mph+ winds. That should be enough to see gusts above 50 mph for some places here in Central Ohio. On a normal day those gusts would be enough to cause issues here, but this time will be a little different. Temps will drop drastically as the front passes, and leading in to tomorrow morning we could see wind chills in the teens, easily.

As for timing, winds should hit their peek by tomorrow morning, however we'll see the real uptick in speeds as the front passes later this afternoon/evening. I expect that time frame to be between 5pm-7pm.

These gusts will easily knock out power in some locations and cause some trees to go down. All of our area is under a Wind Advisory:

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55
MPH.

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SCATTERED TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SOME MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IN THE HIGHEST GUSTS.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.


The Snow

NWS Wilmington warnings as of noon Thursday.

Of course the most interesting part of this storm is the snow. Each new analysis calls for more and more snow for us here in Central Ohio. Here's the latest Advisory for us in the Columbus area:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...STRONG WINDS AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 INCHES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL OHIO.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS... AS
WELL AS A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING WITH WET
ROADS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE FROM
STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55
MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING QUICKLY FROM THE 40S INTO THE 20S TONIGHT...REMAINING
AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH STRONG WINDS.


Yesterday when the advisory was issued it really didn't sound like more than an inch or two with blowing snow being the biggest issue. Now western parts of the area could touch 4 inches. I'm still not convinced on those high of numbers, plus reports will probably be all over the place with some measurements being in snow banks or on blown surfaces.

Here is my snowfall predictions for the area:

Snowfall predictions for Draco.

For us in Southeastern Franklin County I am going with 2" for this event.

I plan on updating tomorrow.

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Draco Approaches Ohio

By: Buckey2745, 8:50 PM GMT on December 19, 2012


For the record I wasn't a huge fan of The Weather Channel naming winter storms at first. Naming a storm that wouldn't get named if it were Spring seems corny. But as time's gone on I've began to accept it. That's my rant.

Draco is comin together and making its way from the Western Plains toward Chicago over the next 24 hours. It's within that next 24 hours that Ohio will begin to feel the effects. In fact tomorrow morning should begin our rain. With every post this storm has added a more significant impact to our area. Here's the latest:

High Winds Probable
Foot in mouth. Yesterday I wrote that winds would probably stay below Advisory criteria. Well with the latest forecast discussion from Wilmington, it appears the winds will ramp up just enough:

MOST OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING
WIND GUSTS UNDER HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS AND THEREFORE
DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH. A WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGE AS FORECAST WIND
GUSTS FALL WITHIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
WENT WITH WIND GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 40 TO 55 MPH.


I still believe sometimes that Wilmington overshoots their estimates, but this storm does appear it'll pack that kind of punch.

Most models are indicating winds late Thursday in to the day Friday to be in the 26-32mph sustained range, like the NAM below:


NAM Friday morning, map type: winds (kts)

Snow Still Possible
I'm not ready to predict snow totals until tomorrow morning, but it does appear that we'll at least see snow showers overnight Thursday in to the day Friday. Accumulations will be light, and they'll be almost impossible to measure. With gusts still in the 40mph range, all surfaces should be blown clear.

I still don't have a very high confidence that we'll see much above a dusting here in Franklin County, but some estimates are already coming in with up to 3 inches to our north. I'll have official predictions tomorrow on the snow.

UPDATE:
As soon as I posted this entry the NWS put out an unexpected Advisory for the Columbus area and points westward. A Winter Weather Advisory, not the expected Wind Advisory (which was actually issued for points south):

...COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT THE AREA...

.IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID
20S THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY CAUSE WET ROAD SURFACES TO
BECOME SLIPPERY. LATER THURSDAY EVENING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH ACCUMULATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE. ALL THE
WHILE...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES...AND STRONG WINDS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY AREA.


Quick Look Ahead
It's still 7 days out and impossible to predict, but all models are depecting a major winter storm this time next week, right after Christmas. The storm track could be the one we've been looking for, a "ridge runner," which would bring us our first significant snowfall of the season. I'll be writing much more about this after Draco's passage.

Updated: 8:55 PM GMT on December 19, 2012

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Winter Storm Draco: Ohio, 2 Days Out

By: Buckey2745, 11:10 PM GMT on December 18, 2012

Winter Storm "Draco" is taking shape over the Rockies this evening and on its way for the Great Lakes region. The path of this storm determines a lot in terms of what we will see Thursday evening in to Friday. Here's what we know for sure about the impacts:

Rain
The deepening low will put us in the warm sector Thursday morning and a line of heavy rain and possibly thunderstorms. Amount could vary, but expect at least a half an inch of rain throughout the day Thursday.

Wind
Wind is the next phase as the cold front passes. Winds will go from 10mph to 30mph sustained and gusts as high as 45mph. As of now that's just below advisory criteria, but we've seen Wilmington throw advisories up as a precaution lately, so I imagine we'll see the same with the post-frontal portion of this storm.

Snow Showers
This is still one of those pieces of the storm that is up in the air. Literally. How much cold air will wrap around on the backside of this low as is passes to our north? Once the cold air moves in, how much wrap around moisture will there be coming in off of Lake Michigan and the deepened low pressure?

The current GFS shows now that the low pressure will come in a little "flatter" across the country, meaning it'll be more of a west to east track rather than southwest to northeast. That allows the low to pass closer to us, and brings us a better chance of wrap around snow showers.


GFS Thursday night in to Friday morning.

Keep in mind, if the moisture develops on the backside these will only be snow showers. It'll be nothing like the heavy snow Wisconsin will see earlier in the day on Thursday. However, the temps should drop low enough for any showers to stick on grassy areas. Does that promise a White Christmas like a dispelled yesterday? Not quite, but we'll see.

I'll write more tomorrow as the storm gets closer.

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Winter's Slow Start, Chances of a White Christmas

By: Buckey2745, 8:48 PM GMT on December 17, 2012

Strong storms have brought snow to some places in the US, but as of now none of them have headed our way here in Ohio. Our one storm to bring measurable snow was Hurricane Sandy as it moved inland and sucked in cold Canadian air on its west side to give us a brief couple hours of wet snow.

It's that west side of the storm that was the key for us though. Early and late season storms usually have to have the center of low pressure move to our east to bring us up on the west side of the storm... bringing cold air down and putting us in the white stuff (see below in blue). Instead all of our storms have move to our northwest, passing over the Great Lakes and north (see below in red).



A prime example of that would be the large storm system entering the Pacific Northwest this week, diving toward the plains, and then ejecting northeast. Had the track taken it up the east side of us, we'd be looking at our first significant snowfall of the season. Instead our best bet for snow would be some light wrap around moisture on Thursday night...


Thursday afternoon GFS

Having said that, do we have any chance of seeing one of those storms on or befor the 25th ensuring us a White Christmas?

No.

After Thursday's storm moves out we're looking at high pressure moving in and cold temps... but no storms rolling in until after the 25th.

I can say with 100% certainty that we will not see a White Christmas here in Central Ohio. The next storm moving in appears it could even take the same track as this week's, so we're not even promised to have measurable snow for yet another December.

For a winter that was supposed to be boom or bust, this could be starting out to look like the latter.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 0" (Predicted: 0")
Season: 0.1"

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December's Update

By: Buckey2745, 1:37 AM GMT on December 10, 2012




Just a quick note on this month's and this weekend's weather. So far in December we have had measurable rain every day except for the 1st. After our very dry November (0.60" of rain), we are already at 1.54" for December.

We're on our third straight day of a storm system that has parked itself over our area, bringing constant shortwaves up the Ohio Valley. At the same time this system is bringing a big snowstorm to the Upper Midwest, dubbed Winter Storm Ceasar by The Weather Channel.

Once this system passes east sometime tomorrow, cold air will wrap in on northwest winds, however snow seems highly unlikely. We'll dry out quickly as the front passes, but a flake or two isn't out of the question as a possible fetch off of Lake Michigan may make it this far south.

This wet start to December isn't a surprise as our winter appears to be setting up be a wetter one, however we just haven't had the systems pass far enough south to bring us the snow yet.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0.1")
December: 0" (Predicted: 0"
Season: 0.1"

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About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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Lehman Estates
Canal Winchester, OH
Elevation: 754 ft
Temperature: 44.8 °F
Dew Point: 36.0 °F
Humidity: 71%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Updated: 10:22 PM EDT on April 27, 2015

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