Rain Changes to Snow Tonight
We're expecting to see our first Southern Low of the season tonight as a weak low pressure systen is currently moving from Texarkana toward East Tennessee. This will push a light shield of precip in to the Ohio Valley, and with CAA being brought in on the backside, we'll see a brief few hours below freezing before sunrise.
The precip should start sometime this evening before midnight as a cold rain with temps in the mid-30's. Changeover probably won't come for us in the Columbus area until closer to 4am.
We won't see the changeover until the backside of the precip, which will only give us a brief time of snow showers:
This is the NAM model at 4am, however this is actually the most agressive of the models. I feel like it may be a bit overkill but I'm going to run with the NAM for my predictions:
Nov 27th snowfall predictions
I say a dusting as far north as Columbus because I really feel confident that we will see the changeover before southern Ohio... however southern Ohio will have more abudnant moisture to work with. Snow showers should be a little heavier down there once the changeover happens.
The one inch estimates are a little on the high side for the Ohio River Valley, I think in reality it may be closer to half an inch, but I left the inch on the map because some isoluated areas of heavy snow could develop for a brief period of time.
Impacts
With this system bringing snow in the early pre-dawn hours, it could of course slow some traffic down, but with us only getting below freezing for a few hours and abundant sun today I don't believe we'll see much if any snow sticking to the roads.
The main impact will probably just be on grassy areas, much like our pre-Halloween snow in October. I don't believe it'll be much more than a minor inconvenience tomorrow morning.
Prediction
I give this system a 40% chance of dropping a dusting (0.10") of snow for Canal Winchester and other surrounding areas. Points north and west of I-71 may not see any precipitation at all.
Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0
Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0")
Season: 0.1"
Review: Davis 6250 Weather Station
I've had my new Davis weather station for about seven weeks now and I've had mostly positive results from it.
Pros
The 6250 is excellent with wind and temperature readings. Comparing local stations in the area and official NWS stations I've noticed extreme accuracy. A problem I had with my old WMR-968 was the humidity and dewpoints were way off... probably a faulty thermometer. However the 6250 has been nothing short of perfect. With the radiation shield, even a roof top mount has not effected accuracy with readings.
While this isn't directly related to the station itself, the roof top mount I purchased, called WeatherMount, was an easy installation and hasn't budged during some high wind events we've had recently. It was the best decision I made with this purchase.
Cons
Something I missed terribly in the final months of my WMR-968 was rainfall totals. I had nowhere to put my rain gauge and I never got accurate readings. With the first few rainfalls with my new station though, rainfall was dead on. I would compare it to an old fashioned rain gauge in my back yard and neighboring weather stations and found the 6250 was dead on.
Then wind happened.
Since the 6250 is a fully intergrated sensor suite, there is no way to get the perfect positioning for all of your instraments. The anemometer is in a good place on my roof, but the theromometer needs closer to ground level, and the rain gauge does not record any accumulation in high winds because of where the bucket sits. Tucked below the anemometer cups and antenna, if it's not a steady rain with light winds, water tends to blow right over the bucket.
Lately I've found myself having to callibrate the console with rain totals I record in an old fashioned rain gauge. But you can't get everything perfect. I'd prefer an integrated sensor suite like the 6250 offers rather that having instraments all over my yard.
Overall I would give the 6250 4 out of 5 stars.
Gusty Night Ahead, Colder
This was the last beautiful weekend Ohioans can expect until sometime in March. At least that's what I think. Indian Summer was in full force this weekend with a high of 72° on Saturday and 68° today. Clear skies with a little bit of a breeze out of the south. Perfect weekend. This would rival any weekend you could find in early spring.
I took advantage of the warm weather to put Christmas lights up on my parents house yesterday and my house today. Some people had the same idea, out at the same time hanging their lights. Others did their last bit of Fall yardwork. No matter what people did this weekend, it was the last time they'd really get to do it in such comfortable conditions.
Things will change tonight.
A strong cold front is advancing toward the Ohio Valley and a strong pressure gradient approaches as well. With that will bring some gusty winds overnight. I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts as high as 35mph between 4am and 8am tomorrow.
The most telling sign that this is one of those climate changing fronts is the radar, showing snow coming down on the backside of the front:
I don't think we have any chance of seeing a changeover tomorrow. Temps will drop with the onset of precip, but with the front passing during daytime I see temps staying well warm enough to hold off any snow.
We should see a more traditional November pattern after the frontal passage, with temps struggling to reach the mid 40's until later in the week. Skies will clear and high pressure will set in, but Central Ohio will definitely be in a fall pattern. Almost a winter-like pattern.
In the long term there doesn't appear to be any snow makers headed our way.
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Updated: 11:25 PM GMT on November 11, 2012
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Forecasting Ohio: Winter 2012-2013
Every year about this time I start looking at the weather patterns and long range forecasts to get an idea of what winter will be like for us here in Central Ohio, and this winter could be an interesting one.
Last winter was one of the absolutely most boring we've seen around here in ages. In Circleville I recorded a paultry 6.5" of snow, with our biggest "storm" bringing nothing more than 2" of snow. I know other areas of Central Ohio may have seen more than I did, but that was the nature of last winter. Hit and miss. But mostly miss.
Columbus averages 27.7" of snow a year, and while I know my snowfall totals from Pickaway County will almost always be lower than what Franklin County gets, my numbers since I started keeping record have been below normal for every year except the 2009-2010 season when we had almost 25" in February:
Season snowfall totals since 2008
We've been on a sharp decline with totals every year since the '09-'10 season, but it's hard to imagine us going lower than last season, right? Right?!
Winter Outlook
The CPC put their winter climate outlook out a few weeks ago with less than confident predictions. El Nino is rather neutral right now, which means it could strengthen or weaken really at any time. For us in Central Ohio that could mean an absolutely impossible forecast.
CPC temperature outlook for December through February
CPC precipitation outlook for December through February
Equal chances? That's the ultimate shoulder shrug.
My Prediction
It's impossible to say where storms will hit, which is why I love winter forecasting. When you're thinking of snow totals you could go 95% of the winter with almost no snow, and then one or two massive storms can turn your totals around.
I personally feel like overall we're going to be a little below average on temperatures because of a persistant trough that should set up over the eastern US over December and January, bringing cold Canadian air far south in to the southeast.
Winter pattern for December and January.
So much is dependant on how strong this trough is, exactly where it sets up, and where it allows storms to path. Shown above I've illustrated where the three main types of storms should go.
First would be storms diving down from the Pacific Northwest, staying well west of us and heading around the base of the ridge in to the Gulf of Mexico. It could then make its way back around to the eastern side of the ridge given the strength.
The second type of storm, and usually most potent for us is the Gulf low that comes up through the southeast and rides up the Appalacians. Plenty of moisture and interracts with our arctic airmass.
Finally we see the Nor'Easters, which is exactly what the east coast could see later this week. These storms are unlikely to affect us much as a true Nor'Easter, but again given the position of the trough it too could move far enough west to bring us snow.
Forecast
This is so hard to give a solid prediction on our snowfall totals because this year will be the most hit or miss winter we've seen in a long time. I feel like we're going to see a few storms drop many inches of snow just east of us. Eastern and Northeastern Ohio could truly have a massively snowy winter, and we'll be on the fringe.
Since winter started so early this year, and the threat of snow showers is already back in our forecast for later this week, I tend to believe this will be a very active winter. But does active mean heavy snow totals? Not always. We just may have more snow events.
So for this winter, I say we see 20" of snow in Canal Winchester. It would be the second largest snow total I've seen since record keeping, but shouldn't be so much that we're overwhelmed. Just a healthy winter.
Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0
Snowfall Totals:
October: 0.1" (Predicted: 0.1")
November: 0" (Predicted: 0")
Season: 0.1"
