March 30th: Slight Risk of Evening Storms
Our active March continues with our latest risk of severe weather this evening. A deeping low pressure is ejecting out of the Plains and in to the Ohio Valley this evening. We've already seen some cold shower activity out ahead of the system this morning, bringing about a tenth of an inch of rain. What this is going to do is leave a fairly moist airmass in place for this afternoon when clouds will break up a bit ahead of the storm and allow decent daytime heating to create our highest CAPE of the season so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see readings around 2000 J/KG this afternoon.
Everything from the SPC points a bullseye to an area from Southern Indiana to Central Ohio for severe storms this afternoon:
Stoms should start firing over Indiana around 5pm. With sunset close to 8pm, storms could reach their climax just as they enter our area. As always, storms will probably evolve from individual super cells in to a well organized line by evening.
While tornadoes are a risk, I see the threat being confined west of here where storms will be supercell in nature.
I'll post later when storms initiate and watches go up.
UPDATE: 2:22pm
A mesoscale discussion points to storm initiation sooner than expected and the issuance of a watch soon.
Everything is in place, so it should just be a matter of time before we see things get interesting...
UPDATE: 3:27pm
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 11pm, which means we will most likely see storms evolve into an MCS sooner rather than later, taking away the main tornado threat. Also, this is our first Thunderstorm Watch of the season (two Tornado Watches already, though)
UPDATE: 7:40pm
The line is moving through our area now, sparking multiple Thunderstorm Warnings and one cell northeast of Columbus even has a Tornado Warning.
Small hail is the norm with these storms, but a lot of pictures out of the north side are showing very low hanging clouds.
UPDATE: Saturday Morning
With the storms passed and cooler air working in for our Saturday, it appears only one possible tornado yesterday, just outside of St. Louisville. From the NWS:
SAW FUNNEL CLOUD TOUCH DOWN BUT WAS UNABLE TO SEE ANY DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
This was reported by an eyewitness and not a trained spotter, so it's very possible this gets dismissed as an actual tornado.
All in all, a pretty typical Spring day here in Central Ohio.
Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3
Tornado Watches: 2
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 1
Flood Warnings: 1
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
|
Updated: 12:28 PM GMT on March 31, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
Summary: March 18th Severe Weather
At first glance it appeared our severe weather outbreak on March 2nd was just a freak happening. The calls for an early spring weren't answered as cold air rushed in behind that system and brought us back to the feeling of winter.
Then spring woke up.
Aside from a brief cool down about 10 days ago after another strong storm system, we have been above 60° almost every day. Even better? We've been above 70° every day except one in the past week.
So with all of this warm weather, it wasn't too suprirsing to see some storms pop up yesterday afternoon. The atmosphere was ripe for severe weather, with cloud tops being seeing as far away as 80 miles as they skied clear above 50,000 ft. There wasn't much sheer in the atmospere, although just enough to warrant a couple tornado warnings in the Columbus area.
To be fair, Columbus got the worst of it. As a storm was headed toward Circleville, Columbus was getting a direct hit from a tornado warned storm that never produced:
Sunday evening radar. Tornado warned storm in Columbus, severe storm in Pickaway County.
But this small supercell headed toward Circleville would end up producing one of the most interesting storms I've had the fortune of being in. Half an inch of rain fell on 10 minutes which was impressive, but the truly severe part about this storm? The hail.
Below is the VIL from right before the storm hit Circleville. The absolute strongest returns the radar can retrieve were the hail core, headed straight for Circleville:
And without a doubt, we got hit. Hail, 3/4" in diameter, falling in buckets. The most amazing part of this storm? Clear skies on the backside, coupled with the setting sun to the west, provided a perfectly backlit scene. A sunny storm. All you need to know about this storm is shown in this video. This is the beginning of the stormy season...
Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2
Tornado Watches: 2
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 1
Flood Warnings: 1
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
LiveBlog: March 2nd Severe Weather Outbreak
10:18am
This is a huge day for severe weather, not only here in Central Ohio but for a large portion of the Eastern US. This is one of those days you don't take lightly. Today you need to have your weather radio on. Period.
Yesterday I forecasted where I thought the SPC might put out it's vaunted High Risk area for this event, and it looks like I wasn't too far off. If anything I under estimated. On the left is what I forecasted, on the right is the lastest threat area from the SPC:
Seeing a High Risk this close to home is rare. Seeing a High Risk this early in the year is down right unheard of.
While we're in a Moderate Risk, I'm not nearly as concerned for us as I am for areas to the south. Storms will begin to fire by early afternoon in Tennessee and Kentucky. I believe our biggest threat will be late when we will see more of a bowing line segment look.
I'm going to update this all day with new information, but for now I feel like I can make a scary prediction:
There will be at least one EF4 tornado between Bowling Green and Louisville by late afternoon. I hope I'm wrong, though.
10:39am
Our first tornado of the day, with debris reported. It's starting early...
Tornado on the ground, just north of Huntsville, AL
11:03am
With Tornado Watches and Warnings already popping up to our south, now we have our first PDS Tornado Watch coming just a little closer to home:
Obviously the storms associated with this first watch will be heading east over the next several hours, and that volitile area of weather should be here right in the middle of the afternoon heating.
What's more dangerous is the potential for clearing this afternoon after our initial area of weak thunderstorms from the warm front passes and we get a cloud free area begin to really enhance the atmosphere. The best way to see this? The sat:
That red arrow will be where warm, moist air will push ahead of the frontal trough and fire our severe storms this afternoon.
12:46pm
AnalougeKid pointed out that things just got pretty serious for us here. SW Ohio has been now moved in to the High Risk area by the SPC. That area reaches almost all the way to Columbus, but putting Cincinnati in the target area for now.
This is the time to prepare for the absolute worst...
Also, this MD fron the SPC about Ohio:
THE SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...IN ADVANCE
OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...MAY BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE...MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ADVECTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A TORNADO WATCH COULD BECOME
NECESSARY CLOSER TO THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME.
1:10pm
Here it is folks, our Tornado Watch. For the first time I can remember in a very long time, we here in Central Ohio are under a PDS TORNADO WATCH. Please read the bulletin below:
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ATTENDANT TO
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG LOW- AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
3:26pm
Two strong tornadoes are on the ground, just north of Louisville and are headed east northeast. On their current track they will end up in the general vicinity of south central Ohio around 6:30-7:30 this evening.
These are the long tracked tornadoes I talked about earlier today. Everyone must keep an eye on these storms.
7:39pm
The storm threat has passed. And for us here in Central Ohio we missed out completely. A High Risk thunderstorm potential turned in to a tenth of an inch of rain.
In the end the warm moist air never made it far enough north ahead of the front. The tornadic storms I mentioned earlier just north of Louisville? They stayed far south... near the Ohio River.
The tornado outbreak materialized, but just not for us. And I believe everyone in Ohio is breathing a sigh of relief.
Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 1
Flood Warnings: 1
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
|
Updated: 12:42 AM GMT on March 03, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
March 2nd Severe Weather - 1 Day Out
Yesterday's storms didn't develop for us here in Ohio, and only spawned 11 tornado reports mainly through Kentucky. Tomorrow, however...
Friday could be one of those big, early season tornado outbreaks. It's not often we have a Tornado Watch in February like we did yesterday, but it's even more rare to see a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather this far north a whole day in advance. Not only are we under a Moderate Risk but probabilities are running high as well:
Friday's Severe probabilities
I have doubts whether the severe weather will make it in to Ohio tomorrow. First, we saw a system just like this one yesterday. What did we see? Warm air rushed in front of the cold front nosed a dry slot that left the most sheared environment vacant of moisture and instability.
Looking ahead at the 3pm NAM for tomorrow, we see a similar scenario. In the highlighted area, not only do we see a break between the pre-frontal squall line to the south and the heavy rain associated with the warm front, but again this is where the best shear is detected:
I'm skeptical. That's not saying we won't see tornadoes and severe straight line winds this far north, but if the low takes the current projected path, I just don't have a good feeling about us getting in on the action.
But that doesn't mean tomorrow won't be a bad day. In fact I think we'll see our first High Risk area for severe weather show up over parts of Middle Tennessee and South Central Kentucky with the early morning issuance from the SPC. If I had to guess, this is what tomorrow's outlook will look like:
Tomorrow's Outlook Prediction
I'll post tomorrow morning to update what promises to be a busy day.
Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 1
Flood Warnings: 1
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
