Central Ohio

Wettest April, Massive Tornado Outbreak

By: Buckey2745, 4:14 PM GMT on April 29, 2011

Our severe threat Wednesday night in to Thursday morning was nothing special. We did get a Severe Thunderstorm Warning around 2am because a very narrow line of showers were producing high winds. This was mainly because the very strong LLJ that was wrapping in from the south was translating down to the surface with these storms. A 50mph gust was just about all we got out of it.

We're just about done with April and our current 7.87" is well above the Columbus record from 1893 of 7.08". Columbus is actually a little behind us this month, but they still broke the record.

Another weaker system that'll move through Sunday could bring up to another inch before the month ends.

Mid-South Tornado Outbreak
I don't want to go extensively in to this massive outbreak from Wednesday because others have done a much more in depth job, but I do want to talk about the historical relevance of this.

The NWS in Memphis reported this morning that the first possible EF-5 tornado was confirmed today. If confirmed, it would be the first EF-5 since the 2008 Parkersburg tornado.

This is what EF-5 damage looks like:

From the Smithville, MS tornado damage survey:

And this is just the first EF-5 to be surveyed in this outbreak. I suspect the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado may also be rated EF-5, just with some of the damage I've seen.

Between flooding and tornadoes, this has probably been the worst April in weather history.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 7
Tornado Watches: 4
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 7
Flood Warnings: 6
Heat Advisories: 0


LiveBlog: April 27th Severe Weather - Great Lakes Region

By: Buckey2745, 1:08 PM GMT on April 27, 2011

Not even 9am and I'm pretty convinced that today will be a bust. I know, we have all day for the severe threat to ramp up, but one of the limiting factors I talked about yesterday is on its way through our area now.

Severe weather that hit the south yesterday turned in to a massive MCS overnight and began moving our way. The problem is it was pulled two directions... one was east, the original direction of the storms... and the other was north, following the low pressure center and jet stream.

That pulling apart means the large area eventually turned in to a narrowing squall line. Also, as that line progressed north and slightly east, it did two things: 1. trained over itself, essentially choking off its own moisture and 2. moved in to more stable conditions.

So here's what we've got to look forward to today:

Current radar

First we have the diminishing squall line heading our way. There's still a couple tornado warnings south of the Ohio River, but the SPC hasn't even considered issuing a watch so this may be more of a heavy rain maker this morning.

Next, there's a developing low pressure over Arkansas that will be the focal point for today's severe weather. The SPC has another area of High Risk centered over Northern Alabama. However, our risk has been dropped to Slight because today's storms should be a repeat of yesterday's in terms of track.

I'll update later today to talk about the next low pressure and if/when it'll get here.

We have our first Thunderstorm Warning of the day for the squall line that's approaching the area. The warning is for high winds associated with the storm, but as you can see the line doesn't seem all that impressive.

As the squall line approached it actually broke in to smaller segments with downbursts, which prompted a second Thunderstorm Warning due to the risk of strong straightline winds.

This is a sight I can't remember seeing on radar before. What's more impressive is the webcam image I was able to snag before the storm hit. Below you can see a well defined shelf cloud. Out ahead of the storm we got a solid 45mph wind gust from the downburst.

Now it's another waiting game, to see how much we can destabilize before the next round...

We're back in a Moderate Risk for severe weather tonight. However, nothing's quite as bad as what they're getting in Alabama right now. I've never seen so many hook echos on one radar image before. That's a disaster.

We're getting another large batch of rain, which logic would say effectively kills any severe threat for tonight. However the lwo pressure center is over West Tennessee/East Arkansas right now and as that moves northeast (with the rest of the convection), we could see more flare-up in that void over Western Kentucky.

Could. But against everyone else's judgement I just don't think w're going to get bad storms tonight.

Below is the current radar which has just tons of rotating storms over the south:

I think our best chances for severe storms would actually be on the backside of the convection that's moving through right now. Again, I just don't feel too confident that this is going to happen.

There's the Tornado Watch.

It really doesn't look like much on radar, but I think this watch was issued because of the extremely strong LLJ winds out ahead of the low pressure center, which is now in southern Illinois.

Shear in the 0-6km level is over 100kts. That extreme, and any storm that develops out ahead of the front will spin. The problem is we don't have instability. I really feel like this watch was issued "just in case."

Nothing like what they're seeing in Alabama right now where Tuscaloosa and Birmingham have both been hit by a massive tornado.

What an event.

Updated: 11:55 PM GMT on April 27, 2011


Two Day Severe Threat - Ohio

By: Buckey2745, 7:41 PM GMT on April 26, 2011

We're on the final two days of our week long deluge here in the Ohio Valley, as this storm system will finally pass through and off to the east after tomorrow.

But before we say goodbye to what's been an unprecedented wet stretch we have to survive a fairly impressive severe weather outbreak for the next 36+ hours.

We could see some storms late today in to tonight, however the main threat is southwest of us in Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi and West Tennessee. This is the first time this year I can remember seeing the extremely rare High Risk from the SPC:

Day 1 Outlook from the SPC

Already there's a PDS Tornado Watch, again the first PDS I can remember seeing this season (please, correct me if I'm wrong).

Why am I paying attention to today's severe threat far away from us? Because it's heading this way.

We're under a Moderate Risk for severe weather here tomorrow:

Day 2 Probabilities Outlook from the SPC

Not only are we in a Moderate Risk, but we're also in a hatched area above for a risk of significant severe weather events in our area.

This could be a major severe weather outbreak tomorrow. The biggest risk will be tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Contributing Factors
A very strong jet will move east. This jet is projected to be 90-100KTS, which is much stronger than any other we've seen this season. As it moves in to our area, that could easily be a focal point for tornadoes. With this sort of scenario, ANY storm that develops will begin to rotate and pose the threat for a tornado.

The accompanying trough will begin to take a negative tilt indicating a very mature storm system.

Limiting Factors
Ironically enough, today's severe outbreak could be a hindrance to tomorrow's severe potential. The reason being after supercells develop this afternoon, they'll eventually merge in to a large MCS that'll move NE toward our area overnight. By daybreak this could easily be in to Kentucky. At that point the storms should lose severe signatures, but that moisture associated with it could prevent us from destabalizing as much as originally expected.

That doesn't mean we won't see severe weather tomorrow, it just may be limited to non-peak heating hours.

The SPC has considered marking an area inside the Moderate Risk zone as a High Risk, however the limiting factors mentioned above have kept that rare distinction at bay.

The Bottom Line is tomorrow could be a very dangerous day.

What a way to send out our deluge. I will post a live blog tomorrow.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4
Tornado Watches: 3
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 6
Flood Warnings: 6
Heat Advisories: 0


Halfway Home: The Ohio Valley Deluge

By: Buckey2745, 5:52 PM GMT on April 25, 2011

Here we are, day 4 of what's predicted to be a 7+ day deluge in the Ohio Valley. So far, so good. The initial fears were a massive amount of rain, so much so that rivers wouldn't be able to keep up with the runoff and we could see a 100 year flood.

Instead it's been an annoyance thus far.

Including today, here's our recent rain totals:

Friday: 0.51"
Saturday: 0.47"
Sunday: 0.59"
Monday:(Through 1pm) 0.12"

4 Day Total: 1.69"

The HPC in their 1-3 day forecast still has us at a risk for another 3+" of rain, but we've gotten lucky so far with most of the heaviest rain falling to our south and west, so I feel confident we may get lucky again.

Record Breaking Month
The NWS in Wilmington today revealed that Cincinnati broke their monthly rainfall total record for April and are on their way to breaking their all-time mark. Columbus so far hasn't broken theirs yet (set in 1893!) but should soon.

The Columbus mark for April is 7.08", which we passed here in South Bloomfield sometime overnight when we got to 7.28".

I also said a couple posts ago that the most we'd gotten in South Bloomfield since 2008 was last May at 6.38". I was wrong, the record was actually June of 2008 with 6.49". That's been passed.

Keep dry everyone!


The Running Tally: April Flooding

By: Buckey2745, 12:48 AM GMT on April 24, 2011

This post will be updated regularly with new information about the ongoing flooding in the Ohio Valley

Saturday, 8:40pm
As of now the Central Ohio area has lucked out when it comes to flooding rains. The rain started Friday morning and has been coming in waves. We're almost at an inch of rain for the past couple days combined, with 0.51" on Friday and 0.47" today.

We've missed out on the worst because some of the worst storms and rain has hit down around the Ohio River. Unfortunately for those folks, double digit rain totals when this thing is said and done is a real possibility.

To the south is where the Flash Flood Warnings:

But it's not over. Not by a long shot. The term "Heavy Rain" is used in the forecast for every day through Thursday of next week.

Every day.

Here's why:

You can see three MCS's lined up in that regional radar shot, and they just keep developing and moving east over the same areas. We are just not getting out of this pattern.

So for now here's the numbers for the event starting yesterday (I'll keep a running tally):

Total: 0.98"
Month: 6.57"

Sunday, 7:21pm
After early morning rain, today actually cleared out to be a decent Easter Sunday, with highs in the 70's and clouds. Overall we got another 0.24" to this point (more on the way), which means our new totals are:

Total: 1.22"
Month: 6.81"

This brief break is coming to an end, as the WSW to ENE track is turning more SW to NE as the boundry moves north and heads our way. That means the heavier rains and storms that have been prodominant on a St. Louis to Louisville line will now cross our area.

Heaviest rain should end by tomorrow afternoon before kicking back in early Tuesday morning again. We're far from done...

Updated: 11:27 PM GMT on April 24, 2011


Tornadoes Confirmed, Flooding an Extreme Risk

By: Buckey2745, 11:36 PM GMT on April 21, 2011

Tornadoes Close to Home
The NWS finished their damage survey today and determined there were seven tornadoes in Central Ohio from Tuesday morning's severe squall line. I don't know for sure, but that has to be one of the most active days for tornadoes Central Ohio has seen in a while.

What's scarier is there were two tornadoes close to home. One in New Holland and the other in Groveport... each about 10-15 miles from here.

Below is the radar from 2:30am Tuesday, with the tornadoes depicted and South Bloomfield in the black dot:

Major Flooding
Now that our biggest severe weather outbreak of the year has passed, we now have the extereme risk for flooding. A boundry will lay out from Oklahoma to Pennsylvania tonight and not really move until Wednesday of next week. That's 5+ days. And each of those days has the risk for heavy rain as waves of low pressure make their way up the jet and in to our area.

PWAT levels are going to be very high and training is a serious threat.

The latest 5 day outlook from the HPC is grim, putting us in a 4-5" area.

Since 2008 the most we've seen in a month here in South Bloomfield is 6.38" back in May of last year. We're already at 5.59" this month. Not to wishcast, but it's very possible that we could get more in the next 5 days than we did last May total. It sounds crazy, but this setup worries me.

We're already under another Flood Watch (our 6th of the year, we had 2 all of last year), and rivers are still running high from Monday and Tuesday's rain. I'll update tomorrow and this weekend as the rain piles up.

We have a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow. Given the current situation with flooding, this seems like a minor detail.


Summary: April 19-20 Severe Weather, Flooding

By: Buckey2745, 7:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2011

The storm that made its way through the Great Lakes region the past couple days has moved east and left its mark on Ohio and surrounding states. The storm reports coming in from the past 24 hours are incredible. Yesterday alone the NWS got over 900 reports:

Yesterday's storm reports

Locally there was a report of a possible tornado from the cell that passed over my house early this morning as it went east toward Groveport, OH. The NWS is out doing damage surveys today and should know soon if we had any confirmed touchdowns.

As the squall line passed through we did get a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, but nothing bad in the way of wind. However, wind must have been bad in other parts of the county because power went out at about 2:30am and didn't come back on until lunchtime for much of our area.

At its peak the storm knocked out power for 55,000 customers in Central Ohio.

We're still under a flood warning and probably will be for a couple more days. The river is rising, but should crest sometime tomorrow.

Since the power went out I'm not positive my rainfall total is correct, but if so I got 2.68" over a 24 hour period. I'll know tomorrow for sure if that's correct or a little low.

In the end it was a restless night in Central Ohio.

What did everyone else experience? Stories and pictures are encouraged.


LiveBlog2: April 19-20 Severe Weather

By: Buckey2745, 12:37 AM GMT on April 20, 2011

Tuesday, 8:25pm
I've started a new post because the other one was getting full with pictures and slowing down load times. Not to mention this storm has taken on two distict waves. The first wave was this morning with the heavy rain. That wave has brought us a Flood Watch and as of late a Flood Warning. Now we wait for the second wave which should be here around 2am or so.

I'm waiting for the 9pm update from the SPC to see how far east they decide to advance the Moderate Risk area.

The squall line has developed, and the strongest segment of the bow will probably progress east and miss us just to the north. The area we should watch would be a building area around St. Louis.

The most eastward bow of the line will be in Ohio in the next hour or so. That line will most likely pass just north of us here in South Bloomfield, however the Columbus area is definitely in play for this one. Our main concern in Pickaway County may come a couple hours later as the second, more southernly surge will head our way.

The SPC will be issuing a Tornado Watch soon:

At this point I'm going to try and get some rest before the weather radio wakes me back up...

And there's our Tornado Watch:

Lasts until 5am, which may be roughly when I'll be able to get back to sleep.

What's interesting is the probabilities they give for our area. You can tell that as the storm progresses east and stays in a quasilinear bow echo, high winds are the biggest threat (80%), followed by tornadoes (40%).

Bow echo tornadoes are very hard to detect on radar, and some of these straightline winds are going to pack more of a punch than these potential weak tornadoes.

When this line comes through your area, get to a basement. Don't chance it. If your area gets a warning, don't bother checking radar... just protect yourself.

Prepare for a sleepless night, Central Ohio.

Wednesday, 2:13am
The line is almost here, however I think we lucked out and all we have are Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. That's not any better, though. Theline is pefectly linear now and is producing 70mph winds!

It's time to bunker down and wait this out. I'll recap later today.

Updated: 6:16 AM GMT on April 20, 2011


LiveBlog: April 19th Severe Weather

By: Buckey2745, 2:32 PM GMT on April 19, 2011

Wow. What an active start to this morning. Rain moved in overnight with some small thunderstorms, lightning and thunder... and dropped 1.38" of rain! Heavy rains this morning meant driving through some high water under overpasses that I probably shouldn't have.

And this is only the beginning.

The latest severe weather outlook from the SPC now has us in our first Moderate Risk area for the season, with storms already firing over Illinois and eventually Indiana... and this isn't even the worst of the instability:

SPC outlook, radar and area of highest instability

CAPE already around 3000J/kg just to the southeast of the low pressure center (located directly over NE/OK/MO border) will move our way today. Expect explosive storm development later this afternoon which should keep its legs and heads our way this afternoon.

Wind profiles are up and supercells will be the norm early on. Later as this organizes, expect a squall line with broken bowing segments to pass through Indiana and eventually Ohio tonight.


I'll post more as this system heads our way...

The heaviest of the rain is north of South Bloomfield now, however Columbus is about to get another bout of heavy rain. That means we should see a lull between now and the main event late this evening in to tonight.

The latest update from the SPC has a special highlighted area for Central Illinois and Central Indiana:

Tornado probabilities for today

The blue hashed area indicates a higher risk of strong tornadoes. Unfortunately that's bad news for nocaneindy and everyone else to our west.

Currently CAPE's are increasing to our south, however there's still no storms popping in that area. Once the cap lifts, this area should see extreme development:

Latest instability

It's the waiting game now.

The cap is lifting soon:

MD 470

Tornado Watch

All of the above is near the low pressure center in Missouri and Illinois.

Today is also quickly becoming a flooding threat. I should have know, after driving through high water on my way to work this morning.

After the latest batch of rain passed through South Bloomfield we're up to 2.17", blowing away our previous one day rain total for the year of 1.22" on February 22nd.

PWAT's 200% of normal will spell trouble when tonight's squall line rolls through. Our rainest month this year has been February with 3.21" of rain. We could pass that in one day with a decent showing tonight, which is possible.

We're now under our 5th Flood Watch of the year. Please remember, this does not discount the severe threat overnight... this is just in addition to our potential severe squall line that could move through in the overnight hours.

From the NWS:

This could be a very memorable night.

Incredible flooding. This is the water I drove through on my way to work today, only it was 2ft deep at 8:00am. Now... it's at least 8ft deep. This road immediately dips down right where the water stops. This is the worst I've ever seen it.

Flooding at SR752 in Ashville, OH

Updated: 10:14 PM GMT on April 19, 2011


Dangerous Tuesday

By: Buckey2745, 12:48 AM GMT on April 19, 2011

As was discussed a little in the comments sections of my last post, Tuesday has the potential to be our most active - and most dangerous - day of the year so far. This season we've already had a couple Tornado Watches, but no real threats... yet.

The storm ejecting out of the Plains has a warm front draped across the area this evening. Tonight in to tomorrow this will be the focus for some convection. Not much, but enough to pop a couple small thunderstorms. Then the main event moves in late tomorrow with a large area under a Moderate Risk from the SPC:

Tuesday's severe threat

There's too much to get in to tonight in one blog post, just know that this area from Arkansas to Indiana could be in for strong tornadoes and uncommonly large hail. Supercells will be the main threat in to the evening hours before a powerful squall line forms ahead of the cold front and moves towards us here in Central Ohio.

I'll have a LiveBlog tomorrow with much deeper analysis.


Windy Weekend, Active Week

By: Buckey2745, 11:32 AM GMT on April 17, 2011

The large storm that affected the entire eastern half of the US for the past couple days has finally passed off the east coast (for the most part). In my last entry I documented my fear that we may have a heavy rain event... luckily that never materialized. Rain, while somewhat heavy at times, never really trained or dumped copious amounts on one area. I got 0.43" for the storm, but those amounts may be low because of all the gusty winds.

Speaking of winds, that may be what this storm has turned in to for us... a wind threat. Yesterday we saw numerous gusts over 40mph, with our high gust being 42mph. That's enough to push some patio furnature.

Today will be more of the same, and we're stuck in the cloud sheild as the low curls in to Canada. The NWS may eventually put out a Wind Advisory, as we have one for the northern half of the state for today. Gusts haven't let up overnight, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple 45mph gusts later this afternoon.

But this isn't the end of the active weather. If anything, this is only the beginning:

The Setup

Weather pattern affecting us through Tuesday

As the low ejects north, cool gusty winds will wrap around. But with that cyclonic motion will develop a decent LLJ that will flatten out the pattern for the next couple days. That will enhance our threat for rain and storms as shortwaves begin to devlop along the jet and train right in to our area.

Right now it looks like we could see storms tonight, late Monday afternoon, and then again during the day on Tuesday.

Then it changes.

Another strong low pressure will develop in the Southern Plains and make its way northeast toward our area.

Day Three Outlook from the SPC

If the SPC already has this area under a Slight Risk for Tuesday night in to Wednesday, then you can bet this will be a decent storm. This wording is all you need to know:


This may be a system we have to keep our eyes on.

Let's begin the active week.

Updated: 1:21 PM GMT on April 17, 2011


April Showers

By: Buckey2745, 7:40 PM GMT on April 14, 2011

Monday's severe weather threat turned in to more of a flood threat. Even though no serious flooding occured, we did have a Flood Advisory for a short time Tuesday afternoon.

After the inital cold front entered the area the boundry stalled an a secondary low moved up from the southwest. This brought us a pretty solid 36 hours of steady rain (off and on of course). After all was said and done our two day total was 1.26".

Now we're in between systems and the weather is perfect. Today is what Spring should be. After a late day warm up yesterday that got us to 66°, we're sitting at an amazing 72° under perfectly clear skies. But just like Spring is a season of transition, so is this week...

Wet Weekend
A storm system that's bringing severe weather to the Midwest today will make its way to the Ohio Valley late tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible, but with the late timing we shouldn't see any severe. In fact the threat will be flooding again. Rain will be heaviest overnight Friday in to the early daylight hours of Saturday.

Friday night NAM

When you combine the decent rain we got earlier in the week with the NWS calling for a suspected 1-2" on Friday and Saturday, river levels could rise quickly. Not as quick as we saw in late February and early March, but quick.

So enjoy today, because we're going down the hill on this rollercoaster known as Spring.


Spring Shows Up

By: Buckey2745, 11:47 PM GMT on April 10, 2011

Hello spring.

What a beautiful, warm day here in Central Ohio. Mostly sunny, breezy and nicer than any other day we've had this year. It's April 10th and we've broken the 80° mark for the first time all year, hitting 84°.

Last year we got to 80° for the first time on April 1st, however by the 10th we'd been past 80° four times.

Everyone in the neighborhood was outside today, taking advantage of the warmth. Probably because while we're only hitting 80° ten days later than last year, we just haven't been warm that much yet this year. Last year we'd been to 70° 11 times by now. This year: 4 times.

Spring is finally here.

Monday's Severe Weather
I've been watching a storm that's been forecasted to come through this Monday and it appears we may have lucked out when it comes to severe weather. Why? Timing.

Storms are firing like crazy off to our west this evening and Tornado Watches are getting as close as Illinois. This line will work our way overnight and should get here shortly after daybreak.

This evening's severe weather overview

A line will eventually develop and should stay together in to the morning hours. The SPC only has Eastern Ohio under a Slight Risk for storms. I imagine we'll see some gusty winds and possibly small hail tomorrow morning, but I don't think we'll have anything serious to worry about.

I don't plan a LiveBlog for this storm and I'll update tomorrow with any severe weather we see.


LiveBlog: April 4th Severe Weather and Wind

By: Buckey2745, 1:06 PM GMT on April 04, 2011

Going to bed last night I felt like the progressive nature of this system would put us under the gun much earlier than forecasters predicted. Looks like I was right. Storms are on our doorstep first thing thing morning with the initial line moving through our area within the next couple hours

As AnalogueKid mentioned in my last post, there's a Severe Thunderstorm Watch as close as the next county over. I get the feeling we may see another watch overlap the existing one... not for the storms we have approaching, but maybe for the potential later today.

Southwest of our advancing storms we have break before more severe storms.

Depending on how much our atmosphere destabalizes after this intial round, we may be setup for another good shot this afternoon.

It really feels like this afternoon might be a dud. Rain cooled air is the dominant feature over the northern half of Ohio, and honestly this could be more of a heavy rain event than anything.

Our Wind Advisory has been cancelled due to lack of mixing down to the surface, and discussions out of the SPC make it sound unlikely that a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued to replace the expiring one to our immediate west.

The severe threat will probably remain south of us, along the Ohio River where lack of precipitation today has allowed better instability. I would not be surprised if we do still see a warning or two later as the remainder of this system rolls in, but I imagine a Watch would be rare.

Our final line of storms is advancing in to the area. No warnings yet, except down by the Ohio River.

It's safe to say now that we've lucked out, and our new big threat may be flash flooding. We've had 0.12" to this point, but this line may bring us a couple hours of prolonged heavy rain.

This storm: a dud.

We got a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Warning all within a half an hour of each other. We're the northern-most county on the Watch, and the Warning is for the squall line illustrated above.

We got a 40mph wind gust about 15 minutes ago with the approach of the line, and now heavy rain seems to be the remaining concern. We're already at 0.47", up quite a bit from 45 minutes ago.

Piling on, here's a Flood Warning for parts of Delaware, Franklin and Pickaway Counties. This heavy rain will probably make ponding on the roadways very easy.

Updated: 7:39 PM GMT on April 04, 2011


March Ends, Storms Begin

By: Buckey2745, 12:57 PM GMT on April 03, 2011

A friend of mine said, "March: In like a lion, out like a lion poked in the eye with a stick." I couldn't have said it better myself. The final eight says of the month we didn't get above 44°, bringing our mean temp for the month down to 42.9°.

We officially got a quarter of an inch of snow for the month (that stuck), but probably had about two inches actually fall from the air and melt. It was a raw month, and let's hope that's the end of winter. Finally. If it is, here's the final stats:

Snowfall Totals:
November: 0" (Predicted: 0")
December: 7.0" (Predicted: 7.0")
January: 9.5" (Predicted: 8.5")
February: 1.5" (Predicted: 3.0")
March: 0.25" (Predicted: 1.5")
Season: 18.25"

Monday's Severe Threat
For the past few days we've been hearing about this storm that's crossing the country and could bring a severe weather outbreak to a large portion of the east on Monday. I've purposely put off writing about this because the focus area for storms has changes every day. Yesterday the focal point appeared to be over Tennessee, Kentucky and southern Ohio, but as I check the SPC today the concern is further south. In fact we're no longer in a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow.

Severe probabilities for Monday

Even with the greatest risk focused far south of us, tomorrow will still be a dangerous day. A very strong 70-80KT LLJ will be present ahead of the cold front Monday in the warm sector. This will keep winds high, but just below wind advisory levels. However, with any thunderstorm that develop, those winds should translate to the surface in the form of outflow or straight line thunderstorm winds.

Tornadoes seem unlikely tomorrow, so high winds will be the primary threat to watch out for. A squall line should develop and cross the area late tomorrow.

Luckily it appears the cold front won't drop our temps back in the 30's like we've seen recently. Tuesday will be in the 50's before warming in to the 60's for the rest of the week.

I plan on watching tomorrow's severe weather outbreak and posting a LiveBlog if conditions warrant. In the meantime, everyone in Central Ohio should probably tie down any lawn furnature you get out today. It could get kind of windy.

UPDATE: Sunday, 5:07pm
The NWS in Wilmington thinks tomorrow's gusty winds out ahead of the cold front could be serious enough to warrant a Wind Advisory. Even though the tornadic threat appears to be minimal tomorrow, the squall line that'll be associated with the cold front could have just enough shear with these high winds that I wouldn't be surprised if we did see at least a Tornado Watch sometime tomorrow.

With this situation looking more serious by the minute, I'll definately post a liveblog tomorrow.

What I don't like is "certain" news outlets comparing the seriousness of this storm to the Super Outbreak. It's not saying we won't see an outbreak of that magnitude, I just don't like it when TV looks for ratings by scaring the general public.

Updated: 9:11 PM GMT on April 03, 2011


About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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