Central Ohio

More Heat Advisories, Bonnie

By: Buckey2745, 11:27 AM GMT on July 24, 2010

Saturday's Heat
Another day, another heat advisory.

Yesterday's heat advisory was warranted, but the actual high wasn't that impressive. Even though my PWS was acting up I was able to determine the high got up to 91°, however the dewpoint was around 73°. Combine those two and the heat index was above 100°.

Below is today's heat advisory:



Even worse, the Dayton and Cincinnati areas are under an Excessive Heat Warning, mainly because of air quality and the urban heat island effect.

The low temperature this morning: 78°. It's that nasty already. And it's not a comfortable 78° either, with a dewpoint already at 75°.

Just like yesterday, we're just south of a boundry which will train heavy rain and thunderstorms to our north. That means over the horizon we'll be able to see relief... but it'll be just out of reach.

There's a better chance of afternoon pop up storms today, but it really will be hit or miss. The exception will be late evening, as the front may begin to sag to the south (finally). That may bring a line of showers and thunderstorms over our area that are currently draped across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

As the cold front passes through tomorrow, we should finally see some improving temps. You know, if you consider the mid-80s an improvement.

Tropical Depression Bonnie
The first tropical system of the season will be making landfall in Louisiana late tonight. Maybe. It's questionable whether the former Tropical Storm will regenerate in time to make landfall as an officially named storm.

I can't remember the last time I saw a storm this small and disorganized. I'd never guess this was an actual tropical system. When it made landfall yesterday in South Florida, it didn't look much better either:

Bonnie will not ride up the Ohio Valley and affect us, as the previously mentioned frontal boundry will hold whatever's left of Bonnie in the south.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Tornado Watches: 2
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flash Flood Watches: 2
Flash Flood Warnings: 0
Heat Advisories: 3


Flooding and Heat

By: Buckey2745, 1:35 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

The Rain
The past few days has seen a pattern setup across our region that was conducive to flooding. Day after day a line of storms developed from central Illinois to northern Kentucky... and they trained. Over and over.

In a 48 hour period parts of northern Kentucky and southern Ohio saw 4-8" of rain. Below is radar estimates from the NWS in Wilmington. Notice that our area (far northern portion of the map) went without a trace of rain:

This flooding was caused by a stationary front that's been draped across our area all week. After dumping on southern Ohio for a couple days, the front has moved back north, and now the pattern has too.

This evening's radar shows the heavy rain to our north now. So this week has been a story of north and south... never quite right here. So far it's looking like the flow may stay north of us at least through tomorrow, with a chance of it dipping further south on Saturday. Storms can't be ruled out as long as we're in the vicinity of this front, so we'll have to watch for pop ups through the weekend.

The Heat
This little gem was issued late this afternoon, in effect for tomorrow:



It's a pretty safe bet that tomorrow will be the hottest day of the year, but last time we got a heat advisory (one month ago), we actually fell short.

I'm not ruling out some pretty decent pop ups with that kind of humidity.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Tornado Watches: 2
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flash Flood Watches: 2
Flash Flood Warnings: 0


Severe Potential for the Rest of the Week

By: Buckey2745, 12:02 AM GMT on July 21, 2010

With a zonal flow across our area for the next few days, a slight severe potential exists for at least the next two days... if not longer.

Let's start with the present:

Like we've seen the past couple days, we started off this morning under a Slight Risk from the SPC for severe weather. By the time the mid-morning issuance came out, we were out of it.

However, this evening is beginning to show hope as a complex has developed over Indiana in the past couple hours and is starting to push east.

One cell south of Indianapolis has seen a Tornado Warning this evening, and this area is passing in to decent instability. However, it seems unlikely that this turns in to any real severe threat, let alone a Watch area.

Tonight's Probability of Severe: 20%

Another day starting out with the Slight Risk criteria. We'll see if it sticks like that.

Confidence in tomorrow's forecast very low. Again, the risk exists, but it's all about the when and where. We're not looking at a chance for supercell development, rather a chance of clustering MCS development. We've missed these clusters the past couple days because they've passed south of here. I get the feeling that'll be the same tomorrow.

So, I put tomorrow's Probability of Severe at: 10%

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Tornado Watches: 2
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flash Flood Watches: 2
Flash Flood Warnings: 0


Finally, Some Severe Possible Today

By: Buckey2745, 5:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2010

Well that's what happens when I discount a day of storms before the day's over. After a couple more misses, we finally got a storm... although not a severe one.

This one literally popped up over us.

Even though there's no warning, this storm has had some of the most vivid lightning I've seen in a while. In a 15 minute period so far, I've counted 5 strikes that has struck close enough to make something in my house beep.

As you can see on the radar above, this will probably be a back-building storm, so I imagine we're in for a good long rain.. maybe up to an inch.

Four hours after boasting that this was our best chance for severe weather we'd seen in a couple weeks, I'm calling it off early. It appears that the main severe threat is staying north, and any "storms" we see this evening will be of the moderate rain variety.

My main reason for doubt is that we've had two showers pass through here in the past couple hours, and there's plenty of debris clouds left behind, which should inhibit further development in these areas.

So while the atmosphere is still rich enough to produce thunderstorms, there's no forcing mechanism this far south... which is a story I feel like I've written a few times this season.


With a cold front approaching from the west and just enough forcing to pop some storms ahead of the boundry, we're finally under a Slight Risk for severe storms today:

This afternoon's Severe Outlook

Already a lone storm here in Ohio has fired just to our west, although it appears it may head just north of us. Back in Indiana you can see multiple clusters popping up ahead of the boundry, and that'll be our focus going in to this evening.

As with most summer storms, they'll die off for the most part with the loss of daytime heating. This isn't a particularly good scenario for severe weather, but it's the best we've seen around here in a couple week. Again, it appears we're on the eastern edge of the threat, and high wind would be the greatest risk.

Some tornadoes may be possible in Northwest Ohio, so it'll be interesting to see how this afternoon develops. As of now the SPC isn't discussing any Watches for our area, but I expect one for NW Ohio, Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan probably within the next two hours.

Updated: 1:01 AM GMT on July 19, 2010


Mid July Blues

By: Buckey2745, 1:27 AM GMT on July 17, 2010

Last summer felt like we got robbed. Typical hot, dry weather was instead replaced with unusually cool days. In fact, last July was one of our coolest on record. So this July feels a little more... seasonable?

Below is the temperature report from my personal weather station, depecting a pretty typical July:

Day Mean High
1     67.4     81.0
2     67.9     81.9
3     72.1     86.4
4     78.3     91.4
5     81.2     92.7
6     81.7     95.7
7     83.0     96.3
8     81.9     93.9
9     75.4     84.7
10     77.1     89.2
12     78.5     86.9
13     73.5     77.5
14     77.4     90.3
15     79.9     88.7
16     81.8     91.6

Halfway through the month, and 7 of the 16 days have been above 90°, with our record high for the year being reached on the 7th of 96.3°.

This is expected for July. Hot. Dry. Not a whole lot of weather to speak of, except the pretty boring kind. I'm not complaining about the pattern for two reason:

1. It's nice.
2. I don't have to mow.

We're probably out of the severe weather threat until September since the jet is staying far north. Usually in July our biggest threat is if a system rolled through and bumped pwats in to the 2+ range, and then it's a heavy rain threat (which Columbus saw earlier this week).


Exactly one month from tomorrow I'll be taking my blogging to Florida's Emerald Coast, Panama City Beach. I've probably been there close to 19 times as a kid, and this will be my first time there in three years, and first with my wife and kid.

Panama City has always had a special place in my heart. It's where I had my first summer love, where I saw my closest lightning strike (hit the beach in front of our balcony), saw my first water spout, and stood on the beach during my first "hurricane." So hearing about all the heartache the Gulf Coast is living through with this oil spill tears me apart. It's a great place, and those people who make their living from the sea are going through tough times. I made my reservations before the spill, and not once did I consider cancelling. Now more than ever we as tourists need to be there.

Luckily from everything I've been reading, the Panama City area has been mostly spared. Tar balls washed up weeks ago, but even those were said to be harmless. I'll be there, and I think everyone else should try to support the Gulf states if they can.

It's been a tough year for places I love. Let's hope home stays safe.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Tornado Watches: 2
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flash Flood Watches: 2
Flash Flood Warnings: 0


Peak Heat

By: Buckey2745, 10:34 PM GMT on July 07, 2010

Each of the past two days have set records for hottest days this year. Yesterday made it to 95° and today has gotten to 96°. Tomorrow could be the hottest day we've had here in Ohio here in quite a while, with a predicted high of 97°, however I wouldn't be surprised to see us here in South Bloomfield reach close to 100°.

The Cool Down
Finally, a cold front will break through the ridge of high pressure and bring us rain and a much needed cool down. You know, if you consider mid 80's to be a cool down.

Computer models suggest the front sparks some showers and moves through the midday on Friday:

My confidence is kind of low that we'll see beneficial rain, and even lower that we'll see any severe weather.

Right now we need rain. Looking at the CPC's Drought Monitor, we're nowhere close to a drought here in Central Ohio, but the grass disagrees. The extreme heat and lack of rain has really done a number on everyone's lawn.


Heat Wave

By: Buckey2745, 4:09 PM GMT on July 05, 2010

This is the slow season here in Ohio for weather. Usually we get in a pretty quiet pattern, and with May and June being our most active severe months, we're not looking for an exciting change anytime soon.

Instead I find myself this time of year writing about much more tame weather pattens. Like the blocking high dominating the weather for the eastern half of the country.

This blocking high sits over the Carolina's and won't be moving for a while.

Blocking high puts us in a southerly flow and heats things up.

This will slowly rise our temps up from the lower 90's today, to the upper 90's and near 100 on Thursday. Also on the rise is dewpoints. They won't skyrocket, but from upper 60's today to low 70's by Thursday, we'll notice a difference. When you walk outside, it'll literally hit you in the face.

Not only will the high bring hot temps, but it'll block any relief from the west. A front is currently stalled out over the middle of the country and really won't make any progress until the end of the week.

Moisture from the west will be prevented from moving our way for the next 4 days.

We might see some small pop up showers in the afternoon just because of the increased moisture, but any rain will be short lived and highly isolated.

So this starts the summer heatwave of 2010. The east coast will see temps in the 100's, and most of the east will feel the affects from this pattern.

Typical Ohio July, if you ask me.

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Tornado Watches: 2
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flash Flood Watches: 2
Flash Flood Warnings: 0


About Buckey2745

I'm a 30 year old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio. Certified SKYWARN storm spotter.

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Personal Weather Stations

Lehman Estates
Canal Winchester, OH
Elevation: 754 ft
Temperature: 53.6 °F
Dew Point: 49.8 °F
Humidity: 87%
Wind: 7.0 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 9:02 AM EDT on October 04, 2015

About Personal Weather Stations