Hurricane Season 2014

By: Bogon , 9:59 PM GMT on August 01, 2014

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National Hurricane Center


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Northern Hemisphere Rainbow Composite


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Michael Ventrice, Ph. D.
TRMM rain rates (shaded) overlaid with 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies
 Negative anomalies (divergence) are cool-colored contours;
 positive anomalies (convergence) are warm-colored contours.


Madden-Julian Oscillation
Forty Day Wheeler & Hendon Phase Chart


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105. Bogon
8:34 PM GMT on October 22, 2014
As winter approaches the tropical storm threat recedes. I won't miss the hurricanes, but I may miss this collection of maps and charts. Maybe I should start a snow and ice watch. Or I could shift the maps to the southern hemisphere for a fresh supply of tropical cyclones.

The orange X in the Bay of Campeche has been christened TD 9.

I'm not sure what the NHC is thinking about the giant whorl out by the Azores. Invest 92L appears to have zero chance (by my reckoning) of ever making a hurricane. It's fun to watch it swirl in some of the animations. The wacky track forecasts say it could go anywhere it pleases — like a 900 pound gorilla. If it goes south it really might turn tropical. My guess is that it will eventually be sucked up into the jet stream to go bash on Europe. Earlier this summer there was a gyre like that, a big low west of Spain, which sat there and spun for days.

Our NWS forecast calls for one sunny day after another. There's a nor'easter to the northeast, and TD 9 to the southwest. Here in the middle the weather is outstanding. :o)
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
104. Ylee
4:45 PM GMT on October 21, 2014
I'm all for this particular blog to die a peaceful death, if you know what I mean... :' )

May mow for the last time tomorrow, though a warm spell could cause me to do a once over on the stragglers.
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16033
103. Bogon
4:37 AM GMT on October 21, 2014
Today I started mowing the lawn for what could be the last time in 2014. Grass growth is really slowing down. I needed to rake some leaves before I could mow, which complicated things. I only did about half the yard. The weather forecast looks good this week, so there should be no meteorological reason why I can't finish the back soon. Getting the leaves collected makes mowing easier, and getting the grass cut will make raking easier. While it may be the last time mowing, there will definitely be more raking. The great majority of leaves are still on the trees, still green.

I also updated the blog header for what may be the last time. This entry is getting old. There are a couple of Xs on the NHC map. The blog has life while those remain.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
102. Bogon
7:26 PM GMT on October 15, 2014
The little yellow X is no more. It bit the dust, shot through the heart by a westerly jet. Goner. Kaput. Tango uniform.

There is still a big tropical wave there, which, if it were given a few days peace, might reassemble, resurrect and resume. I don't think it will be given the opportunity. Rumor and innuendo hint that the next spot to watch for tropical storm development is the Bay of Campeche.

Gonzalo and Ana are still very much in business. Folks in Bermuda and Hawaii should be alert. Folks in the Lesser Antilles might want to glance eastward once in a while just to make sure that a zombified yellow X doesn't sneak up on them.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
101. Bogon
8:22 AM GMT on October 15, 2014
The Satellite Blog on the CIMSS site at the University of Wisconsin points out that the severe weather front that has been plaguing the South this week, and which is currently raining on my house, started out as Typhoon Phanphone.

The guys who track ENSO are sticking by their guns based on model predictions. They say there is still a pretty good chance that we'll see El Niño in the next month or two. There's not much to note on the Pacific sea surface temperature map, except that the ITCZ has started its seasonal southward shift. The temperature anomaly map shows positive anomalies all over the north Pacific basin, especially at higher latitudes. It may be that prevalence of warm water that stymies El Niño, which depends for its formation on the establishment of a temperature gradient. There's no gradient if the water is warm everywhere.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
100. Bogon
1:14 AM GMT on October 14, 2014
I didn't pay much attention to news last week while we were on vacation. The house where we stayed had cable television and good internet. I watched a little football, and I kept up with this blog. That was about it.

Even before we got home I learned that on Friday a federal judge struck down a constitutional amendment affirming heterosexual marriage as the only legal domestic union in North Carolina. The report came from a sister-in-law, who apparently attended a gay wedding over the weekend.

That was good news for me, who failed to vote in the 2012 primary during which the amendment was passed by approximately 20% of the state's electorate. It was also good news for my five year old niece, who discovered that cake was served at the wedding. :o)

More on the gay marriage issue and local politics from Slate.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
99. Bogon
6:30 PM GMT on October 13, 2014
Leaves are just starting here, too, Ylee. That's why it came as a surprise. A week ago those trees were still mostly green with just a leaf or two starting to change. Trees also lose leaves like that from drought, so it was impossible to tell whether those preliminary signs were hinting at the real thing. Autumn!

I think it's funny that we have a resurgence of hurricanes now that the leaves have started changing. Fay showed impressive development for a few hours after she passed Bermuda. Now Gonzalo is grazing the Leeward Islands followed by a little yellow X. The GFS 168-hour forecast has been showing a blob following Fay's track. Maybe that's the yellow X a week from now.

On the Pacific side there's a big blob of convection southeast of Hawaii. The area features prominently on Ventrice's velocity anomaly map. The phase chart still shows the MJO lurking in the center circle, but to me it seems clear that there in the Pacific the oscillation is leaving its mark on the world. Perhaps that's a shortcoming of the phase chart, eh?
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
98. Ylee
5:51 PM GMT on October 13, 2014
Nice! Leaves are just beginning to turn here!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16033
97. Bogon
11:47 PM GMT on October 12, 2014
Home again. It's cool and drizzly in the northern Piedmont. While we were gone, this happened:

Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
96. Ylee
11:50 AM GMT on October 11, 2014
Quoting 95. Bogon:

Sorry, Ylee, I took a break from blogging yesterday. Today my reply is late, and your comment sounds dated. There's a swirligig and two yellow Xs on the NHC map this morning. Sheesh, take a vacation, go to the beach, and look what happens.

The weather has been great here all week. Today is our last day. Tomorrow morning we must bid adieu to the balmy Atlantic and return across the rusty old pivoting bridge to the mainland. Once I'm on the far side, I can shout "Nyah-nyah!" to all the blobs and yellow Xs. :o)


Yeah, we'll blame all that on you.... :' )
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16033
95. Bogon
9:24 AM GMT on October 11, 2014
Sorry, Ylee, I took a break from blogging yesterday. Today my reply is late, and your comment sounds dated. There's a swirligig and two yellow Xs on the NHC map this morning. Sheesh, take a vacation, go to the beach, and look what happens.

The weather has been great here all week. Today is our last day. Tomorrow morning we must bid adieu to the balmy Atlantic and return across the rusty old pivoting bridge to the mainland. Once I'm on the far side, I can shout "Nyah-nyah!" to all the blobs and yellow Xs. :o)
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
94. Ylee
2:28 PM GMT on October 09, 2014
It may wind up to be a fish/Euro storm, but the NHC has upgraded it to an orange x now.
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16033
93. Bogon
8:04 AM GMT on October 09, 2014
The NHC posted a yellow X briefly yesterday, Ylee, down by Nicaragua. That area of disturbed weather continued to flourish, but it went over land into Central America. It is now in the process of emerging over the Pacific.

The new blob east of Puerto Rico caught my eye even before I saw the yellow X. It appears to have some associated swirl. I'm not sure whether the swirl developed naturally as part of the evolution of a storm, or whether it was induced by air motion with other causes. Time will tell if the storm and the spin make common cause.

At this point I'm not too worried about that storm coming here. It's already north of the islands, which usually means it's on its way out. Besides, the last cold front cleared out a big tropical exclusion zone around eastern North America. A reinforcing shot of dry continental air is supposed to arrive here by morning. If the blob should zig west, it will have to buck a wind blowing the opposite direction.

Wife and I will head back up the hill this weekend, anyhow. Back to Life As We Know It, six hundred feet above the storm surge.

We went for a stroll up the beach this evening to the Jolly Roger pier, where we turned around. There were clear signs that, with a rising ocean, this place will be threatened. It doesn't matter what short-sighted North Carolina politicians would like us to believe about the future value of coastal real estate. Waves have been nibbling at the dune line and scouring beneath stair steps leading down to the beach from a few of the cottages along Ocean Boulevard. This week's King Tide reveals how small the margin is with normal tidal range, no storm required. The ocean is coming.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
92. Ylee
9:55 PM GMT on October 08, 2014
At the beach, eh? Enjoy! BTW, we have a new yeller x out in the Atlantic!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16033
91. Bogon
1:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Howdy, ycd. Welcome back.

Wife and I are declaring a moratorium on problems this week, at least for the big, intractable ones. We plan to limit ourselves to questions like, "Do we go for a walk on the beach now, or do we take a nap first?"

I expect I'll drop by your place in a little while, if you don't mind. Maybe I'll go find out what's bothering the Archdruid, too.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
90. ycd0108
3:21 AM GMT on October 06, 2014
Good line Bogon:
"Didn't come here for the cyclones"
I did not go to Liberia for the Ebola neither.
Frayed I've been reading too much "Archdruid Report" lately - it don't look good.
'specialy 'cause no one is talking about it: BBC, CBC and Al Jezeera are zipped/zero.
Monbiot and Gwynne Dyer off in their own fantasies.
Maybe it is "no problem"?
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 182 Comments: 4651
89. Bogon
11:01 PM GMT on October 05, 2014
After wandering around in the center of the chart for a while the MJO is poised to emerge onto the Maritime Continent. That is the place it used to hang out before El Niño. Does this mean that El Niño is over? I don't think so. The ENSO oscillation occurs on the scale of years. The MJO changes week to week. Let's wait until Christmas. If El Niño doesn't show up by then, we'll call it a bust.

Wife and I woke up to a chilly morning at home. We're at the beach now, which helps a bit. The low here will dip into the 50s. Not too bad. I could get used to this, especially the low humidity. Earlier this week I went disc golfing. The afternoon temperature was only about 80°, but the humidity was high. Sweat was dripping from the bill of my cap before we made it halfway around. Alas, that may say as much about my physical condition as it does about the weather. I hope not.

The National Hurricane Center advises that no tropical cyclones are expected over the Atlantic for at least two days. Sounds great. We didn't come here for the cyclones. :o)
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
88. Bogon
8:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2014
The wind is picking up here, Ylee, and this morning's blue sky and warm sun have been overlaid with shades of gray. There's squall blowing in. Based on the local forecast and on reports from places where the line has already passed, this cold front is going to lower our temperatures about twenty degrees. The technical discussion from Raleigh predicts heights will fall 120 meters by tomorrow afternoon. The low temperature Sunday may drop into the high thirties. I brought a few heat-seeking plants indoors for the duration.

This system is a quick-hitter, though. Monday's low will rebound into the mid forties after a high Sunday in the sixties. Weather throughout the rest of the week should be seasonal.

That's good news, because Wife and I plan to celebrate our anniversary next week at the beach. As we prepare for departure, Dr. Master's recent article, about what a dud this hurricane season has been, also contributes to our sense of well-being. Hopefully tropical cyclones will remain scarce until we return.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
87. Ylee
10:24 PM GMT on October 01, 2014
I live in a rural area, so the wind just blows most of the leaves out into the fields, anyway!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16033
86. Bogon
10:07 PM GMT on October 01, 2014
I'm not a fan of raking leaves, Ylee. Given our circumstances it seems the best option.
1) The city provides free pickup, if I can collect leaves into a pile by the street. The truck comes around once a month from October until January.
2) The leathery leaves from post oaks are slow to degrade. I've tried it. They don't rot or fragment. If you leave them alone, they're still there a year later. The yard seems happier with them gone. Less fungus in the air, less tannin in the soil.

Other trees pose less of a problem. Our maples, for instance, dump fewer leaves, and those leaves shrivel and break down quickly. They might make good mulch, except that when I rake the yard, I don't try to sort the pile. Everything goes to the curb.

Many of my neighbors use leaf blowers to accomplish the annual chore. They probably get done sooner, but they make a heck of a lot more noise. Gotta burn fossil fuels, too. I'll stick with my rake as long as I'm able.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
85. Ylee
8:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2014
We mulch our leaves as best we can; never bothered to rake or burn them! Been mostly fall like here, as temps remain fairly cool, with no rain for almost three weeks, which has been a boon to the local farmers. May see our first frost Sunday morning!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16033
84. Bogon
1:02 AM GMT on October 01, 2014
Man, autumn doesn't mess around. Back around Labor Day the sky was light until 8:00 pm. Now, at the end of September, it's dark by 7:00.

The seasonal change is evident in other more welcome ways. Rain has become a regular feature of the local weather scene once again. That would make me a slave to the lawn mower, except that it has also grown cooler. The forecast for next Sunday's low temperature dips into the 40s (Fahrenheit). I'm thinking I might want to bring some of our plants inside by then.

Cooler weather has made possible a return to the world outside my door. I have resumed some of the yard chores that were neglected during the heat of summer: mulching, pruning, and weeding. Of course, cooler weather will directly cause the biggest yard chore of the year, raking leaves. Hopefully I'll have another month or so to get ready for that.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
83. Bogon
6:23 PM GMT on September 29, 2014
96L did go poof, but some traces remain. It has finally started to move forward again, because there is a new wave pushing from behind.

The news from NHC is that there is a swirl over Bermuda. They have awarded an orange X this time, though the swirl is an ad hoc affair, not part of the regular stately procession of tropical waves.

Here at home we're back to September in the rain. There may be no hurricanes along the east coast, but there is a steady northward flow from the Caribbean. A series of low pressure pulses continues to stream from Florida to Maine. A lot of ocean heat is being redistributed into the atmosphere. If that pattern holds into the winter, folks up north can look forward to a battering from nor'easters.

In the west Pacific the latest storm is called Phanfone. (To me that sounds like a trendy new telecommunications product.) Looks like manga readers in Japan may get an extra share of Phan service.
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82. Ylee
1:47 AM GMT on September 26, 2014
Not much mouisture to support 96L, IMO. Probably go poof soon......
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16033
81. Bogon
6:54 PM GMT on September 25, 2014
The blob I mentioned in the previous comment hasn't gone poof yet. Instead the NHC has bestowed a yellow X upon it.

To tell the truth, I am not too excited about Invest 96L. It has been subjected to a lot of wind shear, a head wind so strong that the storm hasn't moved for a couple of days. I rather optimistically placed it at 45°, figuring that it would be there by the time most people read the comment. No such luck. It's still stuck at 43°.

On a positive note, once in a while it looks like it has spiral bands. The bands are all on one side, though: downwind.

    *    *    *

Lately I have been getting a lot of calls on our land line from political pollsters. I reckon various organizations are trying to find out whether their ads work.



Don't believe those polls. The participants are self-selected. I always hang up. :o)
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
80. Bogon
5:42 PM GMT on September 23, 2014
Uhh, we got a ULL. The symptoms are a hazy sky that can't decide whether to rain or shine. The outside temperature is so cool that I decided to wear jeans today rather than shorts. Since this is officially the first day of fall, I reckon that sort of thing is to be expected. Right on time.

I hear that Jack Frost has made a comeback in the Northeast. 'T is the season when hot and cold resume their battle. There's a lot of mixing action out across the Atlantic, which is one reason why hurricanes are hard to find.

That being said, satellites reveal a band of stormy weather persisting from the Lesser Antilles westward to south of Baja California. A plume of convection survives in the middle of the Atlantic (~45° W). The blob has little or no spin to stabilize it, so it may go poof as quickly as it popped.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
79. Bogon
5:14 PM GMT on September 22, 2014
Featured blogger Steve Gregory says there's nothing on the tropical weather radar for at least a week. The 168-hour GFS model forecast agrees. The satellite photo of west Africa is clear. Surely the worst is over, as far as the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season goes.

It's too soon to relax, though. The risky part of the season extends into October, with rapidly decreasing statistical risk arguably extending as late as December. Even though this blog is low maintenance, I don't plan to keep it going that long. This season was not quite as slow as last year, but it has been a dud. We're up to 'F' so far. In busier years we could have been watching I, J, K storms swirling across the ocean by mid-September with M and N waves already queued over Africa.

I'm going to wait through another cycle of the MJO and see what happens. Sometimes we get a late bloomer, and as some people never tire of pointing out, it only takes one killer storm to change a dud into one for the record books.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
78. Bogon
3:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2014
No, Ylee, I spent a quiet weekend at home. Watched some football, gave watching the weather a break. The weather is doing fine. :o)

Tonight is the equinox. We have more darkness in store for a while. I'll miss the long daylight, but I won't miss the heat!
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
77. Ylee
2:15 PM GMT on September 22, 2014
All is quiet on the Eastern, and for the most part, on the western front, too.

Are you traveling again?
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76. Bogon
1:48 PM GMT on September 17, 2014
There is an O-storm in the East Pacific right now. Odile threatens to swamp parts of Arizona and New Mexico. (Last night AccuWeather used the words "catastrophic flooding".) That part of the world is largely desert, so they're not used to multiple inches of rain at once. There's not much in the way of ground cover to catch the rain. Each drop lands running.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
75. Bogon
1:38 PM GMT on September 17, 2014
Here's my favorite hurricane song of all time.



The most recent coming of Ophelia was in 2011. The name has not been retired, so there is a chance we may see Ophelia return in 2017.

It doesn't appear likely that we'll get that far down the alphabet this year. If we did, it would be Omar creeping over the horizon atcha.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
74. Bogon
1:07 PM GMT on September 17, 2014
Ha! UK, my budget for this blog won't cover orthopedic devices for readers around the world. I wonder if a blog has ever been shut down for presenting a medical hazard? It might not be hard to find a lawyer who is willing to give it a try. :o)
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
73. Bogon
1:00 PM GMT on September 17, 2014
That's a possibility, Ylee. LakeWorthFinn posted a scenario like that from the CMC model on SkyePony's blog last week (9/14). I'm not sure what the models are saying now — I fell asleep last night before I could write this reply — but I have seen a hurricane make the loop before. One recent example was Hurricane Nadine in 2012.

Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
72. insideuk
9:41 AM GMT on September 17, 2014
Edouard is doing the pinball wizard thing and bouncing back at you again?!

What with your weather charts bouncing up and down and Edouard going side to side the Dry Slot blog should come with a free neck brace...
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71. Ylee
2:28 AM GMT on September 17, 2014
Advanced forecast for Edouard has it moving south after losing it's tropical characteristics. Think it will loop around and head west again?
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16033
70. Bogon
2:17 AM GMT on September 16, 2014
ycd - One thing that bugs me about the so-called "war on terror" is that it is open-ended. When Senior Bush went into Iraq, he had a plan and a description of what victory would look like before the first shots were fired. The war on terror won't be over until the President says so, if then. It's like a longterm employment security program for American defense contractors.

When Junior Bush stepped down and Obama moved in, I had hopes that saner minds would prevail. Unfortunately it appears that Obama listens to the same crew of professionally paranoid bureaucrats that advised Dubya.

Ylee - How fast this page loads will depend on the bandwidth of your network connection and to a lesser extent the horsepower of your CPU and graphics engine. More memory only helps up to a point (the point at which you have enough :o). Recent versions of Windows will seldom be happy with 512 MB. It might still do for Linux.

I'm also a fan of the MIMIC animation. Maybe one of these days they'll get it working over land, too.

The African wave train will keep chugging until the intertropical convergence zone moves south for the winter. Over the next few months the ITCZ will slowly drift from Senegal down toward the Ivory Coast, thus altering the geometry of land/water interaction. MIMIC is a great way to watch that seasonal change.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
69. Ylee
10:22 PM GMT on September 15, 2014
Been away due to technical difficulties; now that I have an i5 Intel with 4GB of RAM, instead of an ancient Celeron with 512MB of RAM, your blog loads easily and quickly! I really like the MIMIC graphics. Is that a new wave off West Africa?
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 96 Comments: 16033
68. ycd0108
7:29 PM GMT on September 15, 2014
Our I.T. "Nerd" built this desktop for us a few years ago and it still the fastest terminal I have used. The little SamGal and Tloml's Toshiba behave more or less like insideuk's IProduct though.
Read the linked article and I'm afraid it merely agrees with my preconceived notions.
Drove a 250 scrambler into a number of craters in Cambodian roads with Tloml complaining on the "Rat Trap" behind me.
For most of my years I imagined that Canadians were better informed and less prone to stupid violent actions than Americans - lately I'm less sure of that.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 182 Comments: 4651
67. Bogon
6:04 PM GMT on September 15, 2014
Alright! Nice to see somebody on here besides me.
So far the weather this week is a lot more interesting than last week.

Skye - I agree, the MJO is one oscillation among many. And I'm not so interested in the MJO, per se, as in watching the velocity potential anomaly map. (It took me a while to figure this out.) The map shows raw geographic data from which the MJO signal is extracted. The MJO phase chart leaves a lot to be desired. Why do they use that artificial phase space? Why not longitude? Why do they abstract away latitude altogether? Sometimes the green and brown patches divide between north and south. That may not fit the hypothetical Madden-Julian signal, but it is interesting nonetheless.

On the Australian Weather Center site there are time-longitude plots which combine all the wave types on one graphic. All the information is there, but it's not very useful to me. Maybe, with practice, I could learn to read such a plot and apply it to the real world. So far I'm not tempted to try. The four-way animation you linked is more accessible, but those little waves jig around, appear and disappear pretty fast. It's hard to associate them with developing storms etc. The graphics might be more useful, if you could step through them frame by frame.

Ventrice's Kelvin wave maps work better. You can step through them one frame at a time. The computer generated signal is overlaid on wind and rain patterns, so it's easier to see how the wave affects actual weather.

Earlier I said that the Kelvin wave was moving faster than the MJO. That is what I expected, but at the moment Ventrice's Kelvin wave chart matches pretty well the area and location of the negative anomaly on the velocity potential map. If it is in fact a separate signal, it would be hard to prove it by me.

ycd - Thanks for your vote of trust! Hopefully I can keep on earning that for a while.

I actually performed the google search, "most bellicose nation", before I mentioned it in my previous comment. High up among the returned hits was this one, written by a compatriot of yours.

It makes me wonder who the terrorists really are. Sounds like we Americans are responsible for blowing up more people in more places than all the Islamic fundamentalists combined. No wonder that we begin to worry about all that exported violence coming home to roost.

UK - You know how I love a good weather chart! Sometimes they take a while to download here. I can imagine how they might lag on a trans-Atlantic connection.

A lot of late-trending information shows up on Master's blog, but sometimes the signal-to-noise ratio dips low. Frankly, I have a hard time keeping up. There are usually half a dozen conversations going at once. It's kind of like scooting under a jump rope that other people are already turning. Besides, Dr. Jeff himself doesn't have time to comment or moderate. If you leave a comment there, you're talking to the wind.

Speaking of wind, it will surely be several days before Edouard can blow back to the eastern shore of the Atlantic. That's more than enough time for the forecast to change. In the meantime the only land possibly at risk from Edouard is the Azores.

In one recent model run Edouard made a loop and started west again. The short version: it's too soon to tell!
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
66. insideuk
10:47 AM GMT on September 15, 2014
I'm still lurking. I come here when I feel like my broadband needs some exercise, those awfully pretty weather charts up top of the Dry Slot blog take some downloading.

My desktop Windows PC seems to cope best, but on my ipad the page keeps skipping around throwing the comments up and down for what seems like an age. Makes it hard to decide when it might be safe to start reading!

The Doc Masters blog does the same thing, all the extra bits and pieces uploaded into comment boxes appear in their own sweet time. Meantime I'm left struggling to keep up with the thread of the latest barney that is apparently kicking off. I do enjoy a good barney over there, its even better when I can time it so that I can get the general gist of the fallout before the moderators start cooling things off with time outs and ice bucket challenges etc...

So is that EDOUARD storm (who had parents that had lots of vowels leftover to use up when naming him) going to find its way to Europe then Mr B? I've had 15 days straight of DRY STUFF, with another several more dry days forecast. Is ED going to spoil the September drought?
Member Since: February 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1440
65. ycd0108
5:10 AM GMT on September 15, 2014
Bogon!
I, for one, do read and appreciate your blog.. Though I don't understand the MJO, Gravity/Rosby Waves nor much else in this world I trust that some folks do.
You happen to be one of those folks I trust.
Dunno why - just a feeling.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 182 Comments: 4651
64. Skyepony (Mod)
4:57 AM GMT on September 15, 2014
I find looking at the various waves can point to areas of favored activity. MJO rules but I wouldn't say it's king. It's something I'll look at usually when I'm looking at global weather for an upcoming week. The forecasts of those are sort of shaky at best. Gives another general idea where things are headed for a week or so.

I really studied all of Wheeler's stuff before I found Dr Ventrice.

We really had more people that just hung out here before facebook. The true weather geeks have lingered.
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63. Bogon
2:59 AM GMT on September 15, 2014
Today the high temperature in my area was about seventy degrees. Under those conditions I felt compelled to mow the lawn. Normally I don't like to mow on Sunday, on account of how it's a day of rest for most of my neighbors. But seventy degrees was such a gift. I didn't want to appear ungrateful by refusing to accept it.

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Judging by the amount of comments on this blog, not too many people are interested in hearing about the weather. My theory all this time has been that, heck, this is a weather site, so meteorology ought to be a safe topic.

Too safe, maybe. I don't run a visitor counter, so it's possible there are lots of lurkers.

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I could talk about President Obama's decision to reboot the war in the Middle East. Maybe he knows something I don't, and there really are a bunch of bad actors over there. Maybe he truly believes that bombing them will make them more peaceful.

I'm pretty sure that, if somebody bombed me, it would not make me more peaceful. Not if I survived it.

Shucks, I'll leave it up to you. See what you get when you google "the most bellicose nation on earth".
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
62. Bogon
10:42 AM GMT on September 14, 2014
Thanks for the linkage, Skye. I have you to thank for introducing me to Dr. Ventrice a couple of years ago.

I won't pretend to understand all those types of waves. When it comes to meteorology, I'm strictly a fanboy. I once looked up Kelvin and Rossby waves on Wikipedia. If I had to take a test on them right now, I would surely flunk.

Here on this blog I've tried to assemble a set of photos, maps and charts that help me visualize the weather and understand the state of the atmosphere. Visualization is key.

During my lifetime the greatest progress in monitoring weather has come about through weather satellites. Thanks to satellites we can keep tabs on Edouard in mid-ocean. Before satellites the only information on such storms came from planes, ships and islands that survived an encounter with the storm on the earth's surface. That information was typically textual rather than visual, and it was limited in scope to the observer's path through the storm.

A basic form of satellite information is the photograph. Nowadays satellites have a variety of sensors, and satellite 'photos' are routinely comprised of data gathered on multiple electromagnetic frequencies, not all of which may be visible to the human eye. Furthermore, those data can be processed by computer in various ways to reveal or highlight specific details, as in the Rainbow Flash animations we both choose for viewing hurricanes.

The pages Skye linked are maintained by Matthew Wheeler at the Center for Australian Weather and Climate Research. All those wave charts are based on analysis of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Meteorologists can analyze the same data in different ways to track the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby waves or mixed Rossby-gravity waves. They publish phase charts, time-longitude plots and maps to present this derived information.

For my money maps and photos are more useful than abstract charts. This year I list only one, the MJO phase chart. Last year I also posted this simple time-longitude plot.



After watching these for a while, it seems to me that the 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies map conveys essentially the same information, especially if you view an animation. That display actually has some predictive power. You can see which way the wind is blowing. Where the green patch moves, hurricanes follow. The brown patch suppresses convection, can actually cause drought if it lingers too long over one place.

I'm still making up my mind about Kelvin waves. Ventrice does a good job with his presentation. The information is geographic in form. There are multiple layers — winds, rain rates and colorful contours. My question is, does this chart have predictive value? Does it work as well or better than the velocity anomaly map to explain what we see on satellite photos? I want to watch closely this week, because the Kelvin wave is moving faster than the MJO.

It may say something that Ventrice posts a velocity potential anomaly map on the front page of his web site. His best Kelvin wave maps are stashed halfway down a page about tropical waves.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
61. Skyepony (Mod)
7:02 PM GMT on September 13, 2014
I was looking at that the other day from a different perspective.. The second one a mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) wave (brown).. That might help too.. here's main link there.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38679
60. Bogon
1:17 PM GMT on September 12, 2014
We've got a gloomy outlook for the next few days. The National Weather Service seven day forecast shows gray skies as far as the eye can see (through Monday night). An autumnal front, which has cooled off half the continent, will stall here. Days will be cooler but probably more on account of clouds than from advecting air. Rain chances will be high during the afternoon, because precipitable water values are high. It's muggy outside.

A few days ago our fearless leader, Doc Masters, linked a blog at WSI written by our favorite convectively-coupled Kelvin wave guru, Mike Ventrice. Ventrice explained that, since the MJO is currently stuck in the middle of the phase chart, the greatest short-term influence on tropical storm formation in the Atlantic may be a big honking Kelvin wave. Here is Ventrice's latest global Kelvin wave map.

Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
59. Bogon
3:10 PM GMT on September 11, 2014
Oh, yeah, the blob I was watching by Nicaragua went away last night, but another blob popped up in its place. The whole general area still looks inflamed.

This morning the inflammation seems to be spreading into the Gulf of Mexico. There is convection with a hint of spin over the Bay of Campeche. We may not have to wait for a wave from Africa.

Add: Invest 91 is now TD Six.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
58. Bogon
2:38 PM GMT on September 11, 2014
I owe you an apology, if you got confused while reading the last couple of comments. I got my Invests mixed up. I used the 'E' designator for Invest 91. Invest 91L got its orange back this morning on the NHC map. Looks like it might actually be a twofer.

In the Pacific Ocean tropical invests get an 'E' in the east and a 'W' in the west. That makes sense to me, at least in a Pacific-centric sort of way. With the International Dateline running down the middle, there's plenty of room for confusion. (Why is the 'W' side called the Far East, while the 'E' side is in the Western Hemisphere?) Here on the East Coast, we get to use the letter 'L', which I guess stands for AtLantic. That doesn't really work very well for me as a mnemonic. (Why not 'A'?) I might get better mileage, if I imagine myself facing south and call it the Left Coast.

Anyway, sorry for the mixup. It's fixed now.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
57. Bogon
6:44 PM GMT on September 10, 2014
I'm sitting here waiting for the sun. Sunday and Monday it rained. It was the first such all-day precipitation event in quite some time, probably since spring. During summer our rainfall was doled out by quick-hitting squall lines and isolated showers.

The local NWS forecast calls for blue skies, but so far the sun is a no-show. Last night Wife and I met family members for dinner in Greensboro, which is about twenty miles away. The clouds broke up as we drove west. We squinted into the setting sun. On the return trip we watched the moon rise. Here it remains too cloudy to see blue.

The National Hurricane Center continues with the same two Xs, though Invest 91L has been downgraded from orange to yellow. The large tropical wave has managed to dampen down a lot of Saharan dust, but it has gone wobbly and elliptical. In the last few frames of the MIMIC animation it looks as if the storm may be at risk of ingesting dry air from the southern hemisphere.

Closer to home an upper level low over the Bahamas seems likely to bring unsettled weather over Florida. After that it may yet beget mischief in the Gulf of Mexico. There is another low spinning over a pool of warm (30° C) water southeast of Bermuda. In general ULLs are a poor bet to form hurricanes, but if they sit and spin long enough, they can begin to deepen.

There is a blob east of Nicaragua that has persisted in the same spot for a couple of days now. There is no spin associated with this blob, but, again, if it sits undisturbed long enough, it could spin up. The rising phase of the MJO appears poised to reenter the western hemisphere from the west. That will boost support for tropical development, starting in the east Pacific. The area around Central America already has the inflamed look of a monsoon depression, so it probably won't take much to get something going down there.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
56. Bogon
4:51 PM GMT on September 07, 2014
Today the yellow X in Georgia is gone, and the one in mid-ocean looks a good deal less likely. Invest 90L continues to gain latitude. It might reach warmer water faster that way, but drifting north increases the chance that it will remain a fish storm. Probably decreases its life expectancy, too, since that path takes it farther from its tropical roots.

There's a new orange X near Africa. Invest 91 is a healthy wave moving at low latitude, where the water is warmer and humid tropical conditions abound. It will need plenty of moisture to insulate it against the latest surge of arid Saharan air to the north.

A reinforcing shot of warm water is about to surface off the west coast of South America. El Niño is still alive.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744
55. Bogon
4:41 AM GMT on September 07, 2014
Hey, Skye. Heard you had a nice vacation in WNC.

I'm looking forward to having the windows open again. I put off a lot of work during the summer because it was too hot. Pretty soon I'm going to run out of excuses.

Pruning, mulching, painting, planting... don't know whether I'll get around to all of those or not. Don't forget leaf raking! Maybe I can coast another couple of months before that one becomes unavoidable.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3744

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Unemployed software engineer. "What is that?", you may ask. It's someone who has time to blog about the weather...