Looking Up

By: Bogon , 9:48 PM GMT on June 30, 2014

Share this Blog
1
+

Once in a while I like to pick a word, one that I think I know perfectly well, and look it up in the dictionary. Sometimes I discover that it doesn't mean exactly what I thought it did. Sometimes the history of the word (its etymology) is at variance with its current meaning. Today I looked up 'summer'.

Guess what? It means summer, the season between spring and fall. Apparently it has meant that for a long time. It is a very old word. Etymologists trace cognates all the way back to Sanskrit. (How do they do that?) Extant examples of Sanskrit date from several centuries before the Christian era. The conjectured Proto-Indo-European root can take you back five thousand years. I'm no etymologist, but I think it must be rare to find a word that has survived so long with its meaning intact.

Most things change: landmarks, technology, customs, national borders, even long-lived institutions such as religions change over time. The words that we use for these things can slip their moorings and go adrift. Summer happens every year. The motion of the earth provides a built-in anchor and annual reinforcement for that word.

Summer is an inclement season. Living things are about as likely to die from heat and thirst in summer as they are to perish with cold and hunger in the winter. In the winter some creatures, such as bears, like to hibernate. In summer the equivalent word is 'estivate'. That's what I plan to do for the next couple of months.

Look it up. :o)

    *    *    *

Blob Watching


Teleconnections





Previous Entry

Toward a Hurricane (Bogon)
Hurricane Arthur lies about two hundred miles in that direction. In an hour those clouds advanced to cover the sky.
Toward a Hurricane

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 59 - 9

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

59. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:59 PM GMT on August 01, 2014
Bogon has created a new entry.
58. Bogon
7:12 AM GMT on August 01, 2014
For a while there it was a naked swirl, but today the Atlantic blob is back. Today the floater is labeled Bertha.

Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
57. Bogon
1:54 AM GMT on August 01, 2014
There's a low coming up the east coast. The first evidence of its arrival here is light, mostly stratiform rain. The forecast says rain may hang around for a few days, too. That's great. After the heat, drought and thunder of midsummer, it's just so out of whack with all my expectations.

Well, shucks, I guess it had to happen sooner or later. After a day or two I'll get used to it.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
56. Bogon
10:32 AM GMT on July 30, 2014
I swear they were calling it TD3 yesterday, but the Atlantic blob fizzled overnight, and today it's back to invest 93L.

After further research, and upon further consideration, I did a little editing on yesterday's comments. Thought I would mention that in case you thought you were going crazy. It's not you. It's me.

Ylee, I changed the graphics in the previous comment. Originally I posted a pair of animations from the Climate Prediction Center. This morning they look wackadoodle, so I ditched them for WU's own ocean temperature anomaly map. You can see the original graphics here.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
55. Bogon
9:36 PM GMT on July 29, 2014
Hey, Ylee. If you're looking at the temperature anomaly map, you may be right. Right now there may be fewer, smaller patches of orange and blue and more white than at any time during the animation. The warm Kelvin wave that kicked off the ENSO discussion has surfaced. There are no more waves behind it to keep the warm current flowing.



For the time being the eastern Pacific remains anomalously warm pretty much everywhere from Peru to Baja California. The greatest anomalies are at high latitude, which don't show up on that chart.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
54. Ylee
7:34 PM GMT on July 29, 2014
Looks like the Pacific is getting cooler, at least it does to my untrained eye!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 93 Comments: 15594
53. Bogon
4:41 PM GMT on July 29, 2014
The Atlantic blob, currently designated invest 93L, is a large area of disturbed weather at low latitude, which means it will be slow to spin up. In a day or two it will encounter warmer water, which should aid development.

But why am I telling you this? You can get the same information elsewhere from more authoritative sources. In the absence of other input, I'm just thinking out loud.

That's why I posted a couple of teleconnections in the header. They are food for thought. The Madden-Julian Oscillation changes day to day. I like watching the MJO map.



For the last six weeks or so the MJO phase chart has oscillated across the Pacific Ocean. That has been good for hurricanes in the east and typhoons to the west. Meanwhile Europe, Africa and Asia have been stuck under the Brown Downer. Sounds like a recipe for anomalous heat and drought, and I've heard news of hot weather in Europe and Japan. The monsoon in India seems to be catching up after a slow start; rainfall is 25% below normal to date.

ENSO moves on a timescale of months to years. Watching that is like watching paint dry. The latest ENSO blog explains why meteorologists are still unprepared to announce the onset of El Niño. Could global warming affect the cycle? When it comes to climate change, we're all tyros.

I might have made a breakthrough in my understanding of global circulation. I went to Wikipedia with questions about global wind patterns. An article about the ITCZ explains what I have been seeing on MIMIC in the Indian Ocean and southwest Pacific. In summer the ITCZ detours far to the north in response to the Indian monsoon. Coriolis effect causes southerly trade winds to veer around to the west when they cross the equator. Perhaps that accounts for the stream of westerly winds I mentioned in comment 14. The article also describes the double-barreled appearance of the ITCZ in that part of the world.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
52. Bogon
2:07 AM GMT on July 29, 2014
Sounds like you did a good job of figuring out the problem. If the oil pressure reading is twitchy, chances are there is something wrong with the gauge. If there is oil in the sump, the pressure is normally steady, whether present or absent, which makes it a good candidate for an idiot light. Still I would rather have a gauge for some reason. Maybe because it costs more?

I visited your blog a few times lately, ycd. You were talking about listening to folk music, then you heard an owl. (Who?) I figured either one probably sounded better than anything I could think to say.

I have heard people around here say 'warsh'. Actually there are a variety of indigenous accents from one end of North Carolina to the other. I have a feeling that you might hear 'warsh' in a lot of them.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
51. ycd0108
9:58 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
" Glom onto" and "'a mess of beans" are familiar but "gom", as in mess, is new to me.
I'm not sure where they got their accent but my neighbour when I was a kid always pronounced "wash" as warsh.
Contrary to popular myth, Canadians do have a distinct accent (or lack thereof).
Take my Keybeck buddy Charlo for example - "I never understood a single word he said".
Our competing monologues:
Sometimes it's a relief to check the blog index and find my blog drifting away down the page but I keep on checking anyway
Gotta go install a new oil pressure sender on the boat - the reading was jumping around the dial last time we went out but yesterday it flatlined but the engine was running fine and the temperature was normal so I let it ride.
Tloml was ferrying folks back and forth to the Island so I just sat here and worried and she had no problems.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 177 Comments: 4620
50. Bogon
8:20 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Hey, ycd. It was starting to feel like a monologue here again. Thanks for saving the conversation.

My granddad spoke Appalachian English. You can still find native speakers of that language in western North Carolina, but my feeling is that television and public schooling will soon have it extirpated. Grandpa had a word, 'gom', which he used as a synonym for 'mess', as in "make a gom". I suspect it may have been related to 'agglomerate'. I have also heard people say "glom onto", which probably means something like 'agglutinate'. You can glom onto an idea, or you can use bubble gum, for example, to glom one thing onto another.

Grandpa used the word 'mess', too, but I remember him using it to mean a quantity or portion, as in "a mess of beans".

My parents were both school teachers by trade, so I was raised on Standard English. I don't speak Appalachian, but the sounds of it were familiar to my ear when I was a child. The last time I ran into a certified Appalachian speaker was several years ago when I took my car to Mars Hill for an annual inspection. The gentleman manning the local gas station performed the inspection in short order. I hung around, waiting for him to apply the sticker to the windshield that constituted proof of compliance with state law. I waited, but there was no further action on the part of the mechanic. I was predisposed to be patient, but finally I asked about my sticker. "Ya don't git nairn!" he explained.

The process is computerized now. If I should be stopped by a cop, he can tell whether my license, inspection etc. are in order by looking me up in a database. No sticker required. My windshield is clear, which is probably safer for all of us.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
49. ycd0108
2:37 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
"agglomeration"
It rang a bell but I looked it up anyway.
The word listed next in my Collins Canadian English Dictionary is even better:
"agglutinate"
"unite with glue etc; form words into compounds"
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 177 Comments: 4620
48. Bogon
12:06 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
There's a thing in the Atlantic this morning, an agglomeration of blobs. It's still too far away to show up in the blob watching window above, but you can click on the window and go to a site where other views are available. Check down the left hand column for Wide Atlantic, Pacific and tropical floaters.

The east Pacific has become a fertile source of tropical mayhem over the weekend. Genevieve and Hernan earned names, and two more storms rated numbers. Two storms have since drifted west and are now being tracked in the Central Pacific region.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
47. Bogon
10:53 PM GMT on July 27, 2014
The biggest thing on the national weather map this weekend is a big high pressure dome over Texas. I think Texas must get one of those about every summer. Yep, it's a big heat island surrounded by a ring of fire. On the west side the clockwise circulation feeds tropical moisture into the monsoon over Arizona. On the east side, where I am, we're having showers and cool northwesterly breezes. I don't think anyone is complaining either here or in Arizona.

Folks in Texas might be ready for a change.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
46. Bogon
11:00 PM GMT on July 25, 2014
The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction arm of the National Weather Service produces a map of estimated rainfall from radar observations. Today that map says that we, here in the Dry Slot, got two or three inches of rain during the last week. Most of that fell last night. There is moisture in the soil again.

I have taken a break from dragging the hose around. Instead it's probably time to mow the grass. I hope to finish that chore tomorrow. I've enjoyed an extended break from mowing, because without water the grass doesn't grow.

The rain came with a cold front. The high temperature today peaked in the mid eighties (under 30° C) with a dewpoint in the sixties (under 20° C). Awfully nice for July. My playing partner and I managed forty holes of disc golf this afternoon. Didn't do too badly, either. Normally that would not be possible this time of year, because we would have melted in the heat!
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
45. Bogon
5:09 PM GMT on July 24, 2014
Congratulations to Vincenzo Nibali, who finished today's final mountain stage of Tour de France over a minute ahead of the next closest contender. In the overall classification Nibali has a lead of over seven minutes, which should more than suffice for changing a flat tire or answering the call of nature. It could even compensate for a mediocre time trial on Saturday. Nibali will have to finish the race to claim the trophy, but he has certainly done everything he could up to this point to put himself in position to win. Barring catastrophe the outcome is, as the French say, a fait accompli.

Nibali is an Italian riding for a Kazakh team. The closest American competitor is Teejay van Garderen, currently in sixth place. Van Garderen hopes to improve his position during the time trial, but, as things stand now, he needs more than two minutes to catch fifth and four minutes to vie for a spot on the podium.

Second place belongs to young Thibaut Pinot, a French rider wearing the white jersey.

Polish rider Rafal Majka has locked up the polka-dot jersey with today's third place finish.

The green jersey belongs to Slovak sprinter Peter Sagan. He finished today's stage in 88th place, twenty-six and a half minutes behind Nibali. Fortunately for Sagan, the green jersey is awarded on the basis of points, not time. Sagan has earned 408 of 'em. His closest rival has 253.

French racing team AG2R-La Mondiale enjoys a margin of well over twenty-eight minutes in the team competition. A French team leading a French race: what could be better?
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
44. Bogon
1:20 PM GMT on July 23, 2014
Not for long, Ylee. I hit the Submit button, then hit the sack. :o)

I was driving in and out of misty rain yesterday, until I got home. Today looks sunny with 30% scattered thundershowers. Rain chances double tomorrow as the next front arrives.

There is a persistent rainy area about fifty miles offshore the Southeast coast, where old fronts go to die. Hurricane Arthur was born out there, and there has been something going on in that area ever since.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
43. Ylee
8:20 AM GMT on July 23, 2014
You're up early! Or late!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 93 Comments: 15594
42. Bogon
8:07 AM GMT on July 23, 2014
Depth of the twenty-six degree (C) isotherm as of July 28:

Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
41. Bogon
11:42 AM GMT on July 22, 2014
Blob watching has been on hold the last few days as other subjects clamored for my attention. There are a couple of blobs out there, one in the east Pacific and one in the Atlantic. The Atlantic blob, currently designated TD 2, is noteworthy primarily for its presence in a hitherto hostile environment. No one seems to expect much from it. The odds are still against it.



Rising air associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation has been oscillating between the east Pacific and its perennial home in Oceania. Normally one thinks of the MJO as a wave that propagates right around the world, but that is an idealized view. As a wave the MJO is free to refract, reflect, diffuse, split and rejoin as waves will. Right now the preponderance of its energy seems focused on manufacturing typhoons.

In the west Pacific a stream of westerlies continues to oppose the trade winds. Typhoons are one side effect. El Niño may be another.

The descending phase of the MJO is all over Africa and the eastern Atlantic, which will inhibit formation of Atlantic hurricanes. The brown downer is stronger in winter, so its effects are more widespread across the southern hemisphere in this season.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
40. Bogon
3:27 PM GMT on July 21, 2014
I'm on the road, Ylee. My aunt celebrated her 94th birthday yesterday. No internet at her house!

Wife told me that a thunderstorm brought rain to our yard last night. Looks like pretty good chances for rain again today. It's rainy where I am. That was not part of my plan for this trip! The cool temperatures are welcome, though. Don't expect those to last much longer.

When I posted #38, I was up late into the night listening to Johnny Winter on YouTube. I was never a great fan, but I found a lot to like on the Toobs.



Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
39. Ylee
4:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2014
I'm not sure if it's a sad commentary of my lack of checking the news, or a good thing, but by checking the WU blogs, I found out that both Johnny Winter and James Garner passed away. :(

Could use some rain.....
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 93 Comments: 15594
38. Bogon
5:35 AM GMT on July 18, 2014


John Dawson Winter III (February 23, 1944 – July 16, 2014)
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
37. Bogon
2:27 AM GMT on July 18, 2014
Oh, hi, Ylee. It hasn't been altogether what I would call 'cool' here, but it has been relatively comfortable throughout a greater percentage of the day, compared to what is usual for July. It is certainly dry, which makes the heat much more bearable — unless you're a plant. The grass perked up after our little rain. Most of the other trees and shrubs remain thirsty. In the morning I plan to resume watering.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
36. Bogon
2:17 AM GMT on July 18, 2014
Tropical storm Wali menaces Hawaii...

[~poof~]

No it doesn't.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
35. Ylee
2:09 AM GMT on July 18, 2014
We've had two multiday periods of cool, dry weather, which is most unusual for us! Not that I'm complaining.... :' )
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 93 Comments: 15594
34. Bogon
5:24 PM GMT on July 17, 2014
Referring back to the header, there is a clickable map for NOAA satellite graphics, including floaters for tropical hurricanes. Below that are three visualizations of teleconnections. The top two are devoted to ENSO, and the last is for following the MJO.

El Niño is temporarily on hold. The first warm Kelvin wave to start upwelling along the west coast of South America is tapped out. Forecasters are reasonably confident that the process will continue, and that we will see a delivery in time for Christmas. It takes a while for the whole Pacific Ocean to tip the other way. :o)

One thing the ocean temperature map shows quite clearly is the seasonal movement of the intertropical convergence zone. You can see the warm red band shift northward during the period (currently April to July) covered by the animation. The same thing is happening in the Atlantic. Tropical waves spinning off Africa now cross the ocean at a latitude almost high enough to clear the northern coast of South America. Soon they will be able to sail into the Caribbean without interference from a continental land mass. That will enable the Cape Verde wave train.

The rising phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is upon us again. So far the effect on tropical storm formation is noticeable mainly in the east Pacific. The Atlantic remains too dry and windy.

The MJO map is hosted on Dr. Michael Ventrice's web site. When I posted the header I linked the map to the MJO page at Climate Prediction Center, which is also the source of the ENSO graphics. I want to give credit where credit is due. Ventrice hosts a lot of useful information about the MJO and other weather topics.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
33. Bogon
2:15 PM GMT on July 16, 2014
Well, it's 70° this morning with a low of 60 (~16 C) forecast for tonight. Pretty amazing for July.

During the afternoon yesterday the sky filled with stacks and layers of clouds, and thunder began to rumble. It did that for a while, rumbling first on one side and then on the other. In between the sun continued to shine merrily.

I watched weather radar as two waves passed in this manner. Then, as the sun drooped low in the west, a third wave of convection approached. The waves were oriented southwest to northeast. They moved directly west to east. Within each wave individual storms drifted northeast parallel to the wave. The cells morphed and reformed as they went, so it was hard to predict how strong they would be when they arrived, or how long they would transit my location.

This time one of the green blobs on the map passed directly overhead. I ran downstairs and out the door. I felt a raindrop! I took down the fern that hangs on our front stoop and placed it out on the sidewalk, where it could get wet. That was an act of pure optimism. The sidewalk itself was not yet damp. On similar occasions earlier this summer I have put the fern out for rain, then had to retrieve it still dry. I am in danger of becoming superstitious about that fern, as if it were bad luck to set it out. It's like, if you're carrying an umbrella, it won't rain. If you want it to rain, it's better to leave the umbrella at home. I was thinking that, if I really wanted it to rain (I did!), maybe it would be better to leave the fern on the stoop and water it from the tap.

Eventually parts of two or three cells in the slowly moving wave trained over the Dry Slot. Onset of rain was gradual. Most of the output of the first cell went into moistening the ground and air, so that subsequent cells would have a more friendly environment in which to operate. This morning the weather station at the local airport reports upwards of three millimeters recorded over a period of eight hours.

It's not much, but it's better than nothing. The fern, when I picked up the basket, was dripping and heavy. I'm celebrating by skipping my daily watering.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
32. Bogon
2:48 AM GMT on July 15, 2014
Thanks to the disturbing influence of typhoon Neoguri on the shape of the jet stream in the north Pacific, we're going to get a sample of cooler than average weather here in North Carolina. Anything that bears a passing resemblance to cool will certainly be welcome in the middle of July. The weather front will increase our rain chances, too. Rain would be a wonderful bonus. However, given our recent history with 'cold' fronts, I remain skeptical about how meaningful this putative precipitation event may be. I'll believe it when I see water from the sky soaking the ground.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
31. Bogon
10:07 AM GMT on July 14, 2014
Sweet dreams, ycd.

I heard we get three supermoons in a row. The one next month is especially super.

Speaking of the moon, there's a new theory about why the moon's near and far sides look different.

I finally got around to visiting the ArchDruid. He has definitely bitten off a mouthful. Should be enough to keep him out of trouble for a while..
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
30. ycd0108
5:40 AM GMT on July 13, 2014
Write on Bogon:
If I was not so tuckered and slightly intoxicated I would attempt to add something useful.
I'll try again in the morning.
Super moon is late(or in fact "new").
I'm to pillow.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 177 Comments: 4620
29. Bogon
5:15 AM GMT on July 13, 2014
No problems with traction here, ycd. It's too hot and dry. There may have been a time or two when I woke up in a puddle of sweat. That's especially likely when the cat crawls under the covers. His little body runs well in excess of 98.6°.

Haven't seen ArchDruid in a while. To tell the truth I'm still working on David Suzuki's Broken Ground. Thinking about the notion of an environmental bill of rights, trying to decide if that's the best way to approach an obvious problem. The authors introduce Norway as an example of a country with such a public guarantee. That's as far as I've gotten.

Do I have a right to a clean environment? As a U.S. citizen, no, but ought I to have such a right? I'm sure I would like one if it were granted. I guess my problem is that I'm more used to thinking of environmental protection as a duty than as a right. To me the natural environment is something that we inherit. It's like a football that we pass from generation to generation. I don't want mine to be the generation that drops the ball! Ideally we pass along a world that is in better shape than the one we were handed.

This is a very, very important duty, because it affects the future of our children and of every other living thing. The earth is not consumable. We don't dare think of it that way, not unless we are capable of finding or producing new habitable planets on demand. We're not there yet, not by a long shot. We've got to make this tired old planet last.

Hey, it's a fixer-upper.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
28. ycd0108
12:33 AM GMT on July 12, 2014
Estivating as best I can here Bogon:
Mentioned that word to a number of folks that were wondering why they had no traction once the sun came up
(after a good night's sleep that is).
Have you checked out JMG's "ArchDruid Report" lately?
Looks to me like he has set the bar for himself fairly high this time.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 177 Comments: 4620
27. Bogon
8:39 AM GMT on July 11, 2014
After muddling around in the middle of the phase chart for a couple of weeks, the MJO has popped out on the Maritime Continent side, 180° from where it was headed before. Are you confused? So am I.

The brown downer dominates from here to Africa, so Atlantic hurricane chances are low. There should be support, at least temporarily, for the Indian monsoon. Business is booming for West Pacific typhoons.

There's a lively looking blob in the East Pacific this morning around 10N 115W. It doesn't appear to have an official designation. Don't know if it has a future. The models aren't picking up on it. If it does develop, it's in a location that could threaten Hawaii.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
26. Bogon
7:25 AM GMT on July 11, 2014
The big rain prediction brought us less than a tenth of an inch. There was enough Wednesday night / Thursday morning to wet the sidewalk. It was not enough to wet the ground underneath a tree.

The good news is that I don't have to mow the lawn. I have to water the shrubbery instead. The latest edition of the Drought Monitor has me highlighted in D0 yellow.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
25. Bogon
11:54 AM GMT on July 09, 2014
Thanks, Ylee. I'm thinking that, for a blog rating system to be meaningful, WU should provide a way to list highly rated blogs. I, for one, would be interested in finding and reading highly rated blogs. It would be interesting to know which of my own blogs got modded up, but I'm not going to revisit them all to build that list myself.

While I certainly appreciate attaboys from my readers and viewers, I can't say that I always notice. My eyes naturally turn to the blog content much more than to the little widgets around the edges. On my own blogs, once the header is written, I spend most of my time down in the comment section.

On the photo gallery side, winning an AC award still gives me a thrill. Unfortunately NUWU2 is not very good at notifying me when I have e-mail. The old versions worked better for that. So sometimes Wunderphoto comments go unanswered for days.

    *    *    *

For the first time in many days it is cloudy this morning. The clouds will lower the temperature a bit, but the break in heat comes at the cost of higher humidity. The low this morning was near 70°. The range of variation today will be about twenty (Fahrenheit) degrees. Yesterday it was much dryer, and the temperature range between day and night was near thirty degrees.

From the local weather service office:

IN ANTICIPATION OF HEATING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACHING 9 DEG C/KM MAY BE REALIZED. THIS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V SIGNATURE. BULK
WIND SHEAR VALUES NOT AS ROBUST AS PREDICTED 24 HOURS AGO WITH
VALUES NOW IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. STILL...CONSIDERING THE TIME OF
YEAR...THESE WIND PARAMETERS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONVECTION
TO ORGANIZE INTO BROKEN BOW SEGMENTS. IF THIS OCCURS...THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE. THUS...EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG-SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LESS TO THE SOUTH AND
SE OF RALEIGH AS THIS REGION A BIT REMOVED FROM THE BETTER DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT. EXPECT CONVECTION COVERAGE IN THIS REGION TO BE
ISOLATED.

Gotta watch out for those inverted Vs. They'll getcha!
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
24. Ylee
3:52 AM GMT on July 09, 2014
The "+" voting for blogs started in the original NUWU, although it wasn't as obvious as the one in NUWU2. To me, the + is like an attaboy for a job well done to the blog owner, nothing more. You can + a blog in Classic, though the total doesn't show.

The blog theme title also stopped being shown in NUWU2. I'm using combinations of glitter text and fonts so that "Windows to the World" can be seen on my blog, but it becomes a bit redundant in Classic. :' )
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 93 Comments: 15594
23. Bogon
3:22 AM GMT on July 09, 2014
Say, though I continue to refer to this blog as the "Dry Slot", I just noticed that in NUWU2 that title does not appear anywhere on the page. Wots, uh, the deal? It's still there in my Blog Profile...

Also noticed that there's a rating button up there by the header. How long has that been there? Does anybody ever use it? What is it good for? There doesn't seem to be any way to browse blogs by their rating.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
22. Bogon
3:05 AM GMT on July 09, 2014
A weather phenomenon, which was variously reported as a front or decaying mesoscale convective thingie (MCT), crossed the North Carolina piedmont tonight. A good-sized radar reflection came straight down highway 421. I wondered what it would do when it got to Greensboro. Would it come ahead east to Burlington, or would it follow the highway to Siler City?

It came straight on, but it about fizzled out by the time it got here. We had gusty wind and some precipitation that might be described as light drizzle or heavy virga. It wasn't enough to wet the ground, but it sort of gave the flavor, as it were, of an actual rain storm. There was that scent of humidity in the air, perhaps mixed with a pinch of dust and a soupçon of ozone.

No help for the yard, alas, but I can't help but regard it as a hopeful sign. The front (or MCT) is supposed to hang around for a couple of days. It got here too late to do much good tonight. If it is still in the area tomorrow, when the sun is high, it might do better.

I'll probably still get up at the crack of dawn to water the lawn. Unless, that is, it's raining.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
21. Bogon
1:52 PM GMT on July 07, 2014
A lot of televiewing options this weekend with Wimbledon, FIFA and (as Bob Roll says) "Toor day Frants". This year the bike race begins on the moors of Angleterre. That might have cosmic significance...

or not. Tonight everybody packs up and drives back through the Chunnel.

Still dry here in the Dry Slot. I have been rising early to go forth and operate the hose. Might have been a little tardy with that. Looks like one of our hydrangeas may have croaked when I wasn't lookin'. It was a little one, that probably doesn't have deep roots yet. It was planted in what is normally a damp spot, only there is no dampness to be found out there right now, other than the short-lived artificial ones I create with the hose.

WU's local forecast says it will probably rain Thursday. The NWS gives a 50% chance. WU's forecast issues from some algorithm in, like, California. The NWS forecast is written by a guy in Raleigh, who watches and learns the local weather patterns. I'm betting with the NWS, except that I'll be surprised if it rains much at all.

Don't get me wrong — I'll be fine if the next front serves up a bloomin' frogstrangler.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
20. Ylee
2:01 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Glad you're getting some coolness, even if the front didn't bring any rain! The 50s we've had here the past couple of days have certainly been a bonus!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 93 Comments: 15594
19. Bogon
1:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Ahhh, cool this morning. Until about 9:00 am we had the door open! The forecast high today is only 83°.

Most unusual for July.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
18. Bogon
1:44 AM GMT on July 05, 2014
Hi, WTS. In this case I would have to say that drought is a relative thing. It's not unusual to need to water the yard in summer, even on the east coast. I was just really hoping for some rain from the hurricane or the cold front or both.

I'm sure the situation in California is at a whole other level.

I actually went out to California once with a notion that it might be a nice place to seek my future. After looking it over I changed my mind. It's a fantastic place in many ways. Like North Carolina it has lifestyle options from the mountains to the sea. In California the mountains are higher and the waves are bigger! The trouble is, tens of millions of people beat me there, and there's not enough fresh water for the people living there already.

They say that necessity is the mother of invention. Maybe Californians will invent an economical way to desalinate sea water or to tow icebergs from the arctic. So far the big cities in California expand their water supply by piping in water from someplace else. Can't say that I approve of that myself. The history of the Owens Valley makes an ugly story, if you were one of the people who used to live there.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
17. WatchinTheSky
7:04 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Quoting 13. Bogon:

No rain. Except for the pathetic sprinkle mentioned in comment 10, we got no rain. A whole hurricane went by! — and no rain.

All that dry air that made Arthur sputter and wheeze? It came from here.

Dry R Us.


Oh man, I hate when that happens!
Dry R Us 2

Applause is an interesting word, etymologywise.
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 130 Comments: 1922
16. Bogon
3:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Thanks, bug. Wife is hatching plans for Fourth fun with in-laws.

Found some early news about the effects of Arthur on eastern NC. Sounds as if most places did okay.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
15. palmettobug53
3:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
LOL.... loved the Holy Grail clip!

I get a daily Word of the Day email from Merriam-Webster at work. I tried several but M-W was the one with the most interesting choices for their word of the day.

They give the definition(s), give examples of their use (usually from articles, books, etc) and the origin of the word.

I like finding out about the origin of words. Some are very surprising and don't arise from what you think they would.

Had no issues from Arthur. It was business as usual here, unlike the NC coast.

Despite the rip currents, the surfers here have been happy as pigs in a mud wallow with the 6-8 foot waves.

Hope you have a good Fourth!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 233 Comments: 25078
14. Bogon
3:08 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Well, if you think it's dry here, think how dry it must be in, say, Mali.



As the month of July cranks up, the intertropical convergence zone drifts along or just south of ten degrees north latitude. That means that most of the humid tropical air crossing the Atlantic Ocean still runs into South America. A few noteworthy tropical waves have sloshed over into the eastern Caribbean, but so far there has been more than enough hot, dry, dusty air from north Africa to effectively cancel them out. Sometimes you can actually see tawny dust clouds on satellite photos. That airborne dust is quite capable of crossing the ocean into the western hemisphere.

The major teleconnections are sending mixed signals. The sea surface temperature anomaly chart in the header shows El Niño is still on track, though the initial subsurface Kelvin wave is almost expended. A new plume of westerly winds is bucking the trade winds in the western Pacific, stirring up typhoons, so maybe another Kelvin wave will soon slosh toward South America's western shore.



Last month the rising wave of the Madden-Julian Oscillation broke on our Pacific shore. I chose the word 'broke' deliberately, because now we see assorted fragment wavelets scattered around the world. The largest piece of the original wave is moving into Africa. A blob in the Indian Ocean raises hope that the dry falling phase of the MJO (which I like to call the Brown Downer), may be evicted in time to save the remainder of the Indian monsoon season. The latest edition of the ENSO Blog says that El Niño can be bad news for thirsty India.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
13. Bogon
1:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
No rain. Except for the pathetic sprinkle mentioned in comment 10, we got no rain. A whole hurricane went by! — and no rain.

All that dry air that made Arthur sputter and wheeze? It came from here.

Dry R Us.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
12. Bogon
6:21 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
At 18:00 GMT I'm doing my weather nerd thing. I have the WUndermap open with radar overlaid on the 12:00 NAM Wind map. It looks like the NAM is close. The storm may be outrunning the model's predicted track just a skosh. Overall, I like the NAM's presentation better than the other models' in this rather complex situation.

Outside it's mostly sunny. White puffy clouds gather thicker to the southeast. The radar shows band action from Arthur extending inland north of Wilmington toward Rocky Mount. The nearest blobbage is only a county away near Pittsboro. Right now it looks like our best chance for rain lies in that direction.

The opposite side of the sky remains mostly blue. Radar is starting to pick up a line of storms outlining the impending cold front. The front appears to be stuck crossing the Appalachians. WUndermap shows a small low pressure cell anchoring one end of the front over the headwaters of the Savannah River. That has hardly moved at all so far this morning. The NWS office in Raleigh, which issues my local forecast, says the front will move east sometime today. It had better get its act together!
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
11. Bogon
4:46 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
At noon hurricane Arthur lies south of Cape Fear. Later tonight the center of the storm will pass Cape Lookout. The National Weather Service maintains an office near there at Morehead City. That surely will be a fine source of information about Arthur's progress during the next twenty-four hours.



1153 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT

THIS AFTERNOON TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. SEAS AROUND 12 FT...EXCEPT AROUND 9 FT NEAR SHORE. DOMINANT PERIOD 8 SECONDS. ADJACENT SOUNDS AND RIVERS EXTREMELY ROUGH. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY.

TONIGHT HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E WINDS 60 TO 80 KT... BECOMING NW 65 TO 75 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 100 KT... DECREASING TO 95 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AROUND 25 FT...SUBSIDING TO 23 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR SHORE...SEAS AROUND 16 FT...SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOMINANT PERIOD 10 SECONDS. ADJACENT SOUNDS AND RIVERS EXTREMELY ROUGH. TSTMS LIKELY. SHOWERS LIKELY.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
10. Bogon
2:44 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
As Wife and I were waking up this morning we heard the sound of rain on the roof.

It was a very brief shower. A thin line of storms formed where an advancing cold front met the edge of Arthur's circulation. It was not a spiral band. It was a straight line running from Charlotte to Danville. The rain ended as Arthur pushed the front back. The line retreated north-northwest.

Meanwhile Arthur wobbled eastward, shifting from its northward advance. There is another front fifty miles behind the first. That one is the main event. The first was only a forerunner.

Arthur has reached the state border. It is raining in Wilmington.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693
9. Bogon
11:08 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
Good advice, ycd, about hydration. Last time I ran out of water. This time I took a bigger bottle.

Not too shabby overall. I probably had more bogies than birdies, but I figure any day with a birdie is a good day. With 105° "feels like" temperatures, I'm not going to worry too much about the bogies. The sweat was dripping down my glasses. I couldn't see. I was making shots purely by feel. :o)

My playing partner was having a bad day putting. Sorta felt bad for him on account of that. I don't think it was necessarily heat-related. He had a good putting day last time out. Probably more of a mental thing.

I'm currently in the posthydration phase. Got some Pisgah Pale Ale and some Scrimshaw lager I found at the local coop. The air conditioner is working great.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3693

Viewing: 59 - 9

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

Top of Page

About Bogon

Unemployed software engineer. "What is that?", you may ask. It's someone who has time to blog about the weather...