Tropical Update

By: Bogon , 8:14 PM GMT on August 01, 2011

This morning I posted a comment on my last blog, talking about Lammas and the changing of the seasons. At that moment I became aware that my Hot Fun in the Summertime blog had just gone stale. Time to crank out the next edition.

I'm passing a personal milestone: three years since I joined Weather Underground. There are now two years' worth of blogs in the archive. This is the first time I've had an opportunity to categorize a blog entry. Does anybody know whether it is possible to retroactively categorize older entries?

Customarily I post tropical weather info in August as the Atlantic hurricane season ramps up. A number of other WU bloggers offer a similar service, some of them year round. My intent here is to gather information that I've found useful into one easy-to-view collection. Let me know if you would like to see something else to complete this list. Hopefully you folks will make this a regular stop for your daily tropical outlook, at least for the next month or so.

Western Atlantic Imagery from NOAA Satellite and Information Service

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS - Total Precipitable Water, 72 hour animation

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential - Depth 26° C Isotherm
NOTE: This image doesn't update automatically. Click to visit AOML for the latest.

Teleconnections - the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The MJO is a wave of rising air which propagates around the world every few weeks. The MJO doesn't cause hurricanes, but it can promote or hinder their formation.

Wheeler and Hendon Phase Chart indicates the daily strength and location of the MJO wave.

Ensemble GFS Phase Diagram predicts future motion and amplitude of the MJO.

IR/200 hectoPascals Velocity Potential Anomalies map helps to visualize regions of rising and falling air around the globe. The positive side of the MJO is marked in green. Brown outlines the negative part of the wave. Tropical cyclones are more likely to form under green patches.

9/1/2011 2:40:54 PM - taking sides
There is a growing disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, presumptive heir to the name 'Lee'. It looks as though Lee may be hanging around for a while, teasing droughtstriken Texas with the lure of copious tropical rain.

Dream on, Texas; it's probably not going to happen. Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for you. If Lee had proper motivation, he would head straight for the Four Corners, leaving a wide swath of saturated ground behind him. I'm afraid Lee has other plans. He's going to try to weasel out of the deal.

Most tropical storms eventually recurve to the northeast. It happened to Irene, and it looks like it's going to happen to Katia before long. Scenario one is that Lee may decide to dump his watery load across an already swampy Mississippi Valley. If that happens, there's a chance that Lee could eventually splash rain over my house, which would be a good thing. Hurricanes are perverse, though. Irene reserved a big helping of her best moisture for New Jersey, New York and New England, where it mostly wasn't welcome. If Lee comes east, there's a risk he could veer north, too, adding insult to injury.

Even if we ascribe the best of motives to the storm, Lee would have a tough assignment tackling the heat island over Texas. The rotation around that big, dry high pressure cell is clockwise, which might drive Lee west into south Texas and northern Mexico. That's scenario two. That would help part of Texas anyhow, and the moisture would remain upwind, which means some of it might yet find its way to the Dry Slot.

I'm not really taking sides. Scenario one would be nice if Lee would blow some rain my way. I don't want to aggravate the flooding up north, though. Helping any part of Texas would be better than no help at all. Their need is greater than mine. If Lee picks scenario two, I can live with that.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 143 - 93

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

143. Bogon
2:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2011
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
142. Bogon
10:53 PM GMT on September 21, 2011
Rain! Two centimeters in the rain gauge so far, with more on the radar. This time I know I can take a break from watering.

Thanks to a lingering upper level low over the Ohio valley, our local forecast remains rainy through the end of the week.

Huh-oh, this is going to make the grass grow! The mower has been on hiatus while the ground parched in the sun.

Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
141. Bogon
5:35 PM GMT on September 19, 2011
The weather has been quiet lately, and so has the blog.

Local weather was rainish Saturday. All day long it was cloudy and damp. I checked the rain gauge three times. I got a tenth of an inch once and trace amounts the other two times.

The rain looked good after a hot dry summer, but it was so light and diffuse that it had hardly any effect. I thought maybe I could skip watering for a day or two, but no. Sunday morning the plants on the back deck looked wilted and thirsty, as if to say, "What rain?".

The NWS forecast promises more precipitation chances throughout the week. I reckon that if they keep practicing, maybe one of these days a storm will actually wet the ground.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
140. Bogon
2:49 PM GMT on September 16, 2011
Hey, Skye.

Fleeting? Maybe compared to Florida. I would say that Mills River gets an honest four seasons, each one about ninety days in duration. It's possible that I'm biased; I was born not far from there.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
139. Skyepony (Mod)
1:26 PM GMT on September 16, 2011
54º in Mills River at the moment..summer is fleeting up there.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 346 Comments: 42061
138. Bogon
1:17 PM GMT on September 16, 2011
Good morning, Ylee.

So far the prediction for cooler weather has come true. We have the windows open. At 7:54 am the local temperature is 56°. That in itself is not particularly significant, because our dewpoints and morning lows have been running only a few degrees warmer than that. The difference is that it's cloudy with a chance of rain, and the forecast high today is only 58°.

NOAA's forecast includes a high probability (80%) of rain tonight. That would be great, but I'm not seeing it on the models, not on any of 'em. The rain is all down east, where it has fallen all along, every time we get a rain prediction. So I'm not buying it. I'll believe it when I see water gushing from the downspouts and puddles standing in the low places.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
137. Ylee
9:34 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
This morning we had temps in the upper 40s with cloudy skies and a stiff NW breeze. The local NWS office was showing a wind chill reading of 46(I didn't know they wind chill readings in the 40s), impressive since they were posting heat indices only a few days ago.

Hope you are enjoying the cooler temps by now!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 115 Comments: 19987
136. Bogon
4:44 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Maria's spin looks better organized this morning on the MIMIC imagery, as she trails her skirts over Bermuda. It's Maria's last hurrah. There's a chance she will visit Newfoundland's Avalon Peninsula tomorrow, but by then she'll be changing into extratropical guise.

At noontime it's sunny and 87° in Burlington, NC. The first scattered light showers associated with a cold front are creeping onto my local WunderMap from the northwest. The eastern sky is clear blue. To the west and north clouds are massing.

This time tomorrow I expect a much cooler and damper scenario. Frankly, it's a little hard to imagine. I look forward to experiencing the reality.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
135. Bogon
3:23 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Two more ninety degree days before the regime changes. The forecast high for tomorrow is actually only 87°, but that's close enough. On Sunday it will be sunny with a high of 71°. That's what I'm talking about. I want to Be There.

Local weather is already nicer than it was in August and WAY better than July. One can venture outside during the morning or evening without major discomfort. Even at midday it's tolerable in the shade.

Tropical storm Maria has started wrapping up heat and moisture from the trailing tropical wave that overtook her yesterday. The ad hoc combination of two tropical waves will be quite a bolus for the jet stream to ingest, but like a python slowly fitting itself around a rabbit, the east coast front will eventually get the job done. Maria is going north.

After that there's nothing else on the radar. The MJO has been stuck in octant 3 of the phase diagram for many days now. There's no clear signal that it's about to get unstuck. Maybe we can take a break from worrying about the tropics.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
134. Bogon
2:29 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Maria has been dragging her feet, trying to get her spin reorganized. She may not have the time. While she fumbles and stumbles over Puerto Rico, the wave behind her is catching up. It appears to be supplying motivation, urging Maria forward. It's a squeeze play. Ahead of Maria there is a front, a wall of air which will block Maria's passage westward. She is about to be swept up and carried away.

In a couple of days a cool dome of high pressure will shoulder its way into the Dry Slot. The front will drop our temperatures twenty degrees, and it will bring us our next chance of rain. The local forecast gives us 40%, but that chance looks ludicrously slim on this morning's NAM. The 0Z ECMWF offers more hope in about four days.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
133. Bogon
10:26 AM GMT on September 12, 2011
Here in the Dry Slot high temperatures are running in the mid eighties with lows near sixty. There is no sign of rain in the forecast until Friday.

Hope everyone got their fill of 9/11 documentaries yesterday. It will be a whole year until we have another excuse for a binge. Wife had those running on the teevee all day long. I mostly didn't watch. It was bad enough the first time.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
132. Bogon
10:20 AM GMT on September 12, 2011
Nate is gone, which leaves Maria as the only game in town. Maria's zigzag seems to have taken a lot out of her. She hasn't moved much since yesterday. She shows signs of devolving into an open wave. And take away the neatness points; she is slobbering on the Virgin Islands.

After Maria we have a lull. There's no support in the Atlantic basin from the MJO. The wave behind Maria lacks spin and convection. Unless something pops up closer to home, we'll have to look to the next blob coming off of Africa.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
131. Bogon
1:34 PM GMT on September 11, 2011
Home again. Slept in my own bed last night. It feels great to be back. Wife, Spooky Margaret and Thai Beau acted glad to see me.

This morning I found about an inch of water standing in the rain gauge. I don't know how it got there, but the simplest theory is that we got more rain here than I thought we did. If so, that's a good thing. I'll gladly take the heat for needless sour grapes grousing in earlier comments.

SP, your unnamed tropical wave has pushed Nate out of his cozy nest and into Veracruz, Mexico. The residual cloudy patch is drifting westward into Puebla.

I thought Maria might defy predictions and track straight westward into the central Caribbean. She appeared to defy physics instead by making a three hundred mile lateral move. If I didn't know better, I might think that this massive process, operating at balmy tropical temperatures, was exhibiting quantum behavior. She vanished here and reappeared there, neatly (for a hurricane, anyhow) sidestepping the Lesser Antilles. Now those track predictions don't look so bad.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
130. Bogon
11:05 AM GMT on September 10, 2011
UK, if Katia blows across your patch of the green and pleasant land, I hope you'll batten down the hatches and grab hold of a flag pole. Don't let go, or you might wake up among the Walloons.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
129. insideuk
10:18 AM GMT on September 10, 2011
Little old ladies are known for crashing into stuff...

It's all in the language Mr B. We don't get 'hurricanes' we just get hurricane force winds - it's something that raises a smile here as we had a BBC weather forecaster by the name of Michael Fish who gave a famous broadcast once where he told of a lady who had contacted him asking about a possible hurricane hitting our shores (back in 1987). He was on TV telling her 'not to worry, no hurricanes here' and the next day the country was flattened by huge hurricane force winds.

Now every British weather forecaster has to keep that cock up in mind when 'weather' is heading our way.

Here is a link to a current BBC weatherman explaining why it's NEVER an actual hurricane that hits you in the UK...


I'll allow anyone to claim their wind is stronger than my wind, or their rain was wetter than my rain, or their snow was fatter than my snow. We get varied weather here that changes fast but rarely ever see the extremes. But I shan't have anyone (like Dr Jeff) denying the existence of the land on which I am stood.

Most especially not when I'm stood at a peculiar angle due to some incoming 'weather'...

Member Since: February 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1676
128. Bogon
9:41 AM GMT on September 10, 2011
Hi, UK. You stole into our midst unnoticed.

Ah, the pint of ale would be most welcome. Thank you.

I believe you remarked that the UK doesn't get hurricanes, it just gets weather. Well, here comes some weather comprised of a used hurricane. It's a low mileage hurricane, a real keeper, that was only driven to church on Sunday by a little old lady from Pasadena.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
127. Bogon
8:14 AM GMT on September 10, 2011
It occurs to me that perhaps I should take a moment to speak about motivation.

I come to Weather Underground because I enjoy a dilettante's interest in meteorology. I get a kick out of watching giant killer storms buzzsawing around the planet. Never for a second do I imagine that I can out compete my fellow WUsers on the basis of my sensitivity to the breadth and depth of human suffering.

Especially not on Friday night.

Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
126. insideuk
8:08 AM GMT on September 10, 2011
Well, I was going to say something about the world being flat and how Bogon might find himself falling off the edge of that big old Atlantic ocean...

If he's lucky he'll land in a pint of warm ale.

We are told to expect up to 80mph winds across a large section of the northern half of the UK and some flooding events on the west coast on Monday. I can guarantee you some idiots will be hill walking in it.

It gives the sheep a good laugh.

The only weird bit is that that is happening with 70f temps, still a bit of 'tropical' in that 'fish' storm it seems.

A storm in the proverbial teacup perhaps?

Member Since: February 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1676
125. Bogon
12:54 AM GMT on September 10, 2011
Aw, DAM, you're sucking all the fun out!

Here we have a hurricane that comes as close to being harmless as a hurricane possibly could. Yes, Katia is still deadly if you try to sail your Hobie cat though the eye. I get that. People who try a stunt like that are bucking for a Darwin Award. Evolution in action!

Alas, most people who are affected by hurricanes don't do it on purpose. The hurricane comes to them. I get that, too. Despite all our technology we still can't stop a hurricane or even turn it aside.

The best we can do is try to get out of the way. The great thing about a fish storm is that most of us don't have to.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
124. DontAnnoyMe
12:15 AM GMT on September 10, 2011
Quoting Bogon:
I'm sure interests in and around the British Isles, such as insideuk and sandiquiz, would be quick to agree with you.

Well, I hope it's not bad for them.

I think 'fish storm' is used way too often; people don't realize the impacts.

e.g., someone drowns on the coast because of the rips caused by Katia.

And then there's stuff like this:

Hurricanes have the potential to cause loss of life over the open ocean to those on ships and there are obvious economic consequences as well. In fact, it costs the Navy tens of millions of dollars if, for example, the fleet at Norfolk has to be moved from port due to a hurricane threat.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
123. Bogon
11:28 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Hi, DAM. There I go being myopic again. I generally confine my forecasting to this side of the big pond.

I'm sure interests in and around the British Isles, such as insideuk and sandiquiz, would be quick to agree with you.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
121. Bogon
1:03 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Well, it's TGIF day, and it seems as good a time as any to attempt a synoptic inventory of all the tropical critters out there. The main question was whether to add another dateline to the header. Since there's nothing particularly momentous afoot (at least from the myopic vantage afforded by the Dry Slot), I decided to do it in a comment.

Katia is history. She's outta here. A classic fish storm all the way, suitable for meteorological research, rocking the boat, amplifying the surf. I doubt anyone laments her passing.

The upper level low formerly known as Lee menaces the midwest. We can blame Lee for ongoing flooding in the Northeast. Could be Katia contributed a little extra tropical juice as Lee fades. Lee is nearing the end of his run. He'll be packing up and shuffling along this weekend.

Maria has had a rough passage across the Atlantic, but now she has reached the promised land (figuratively speaking) of warmer water at the gates of the Caribbean. There was a flare of convection around Maria last night, which should help improve her spirits. Maria seems to be following the same path blazed by Irene.

Nate continues to putter around the Bay of Campeche. The dry air to his northwest has moderated somewhat. His swirl has firmed up, so that we may imagine he is ready for action. Whither will he wander? Beats me. So far he seems content to huddle quietly in the corner.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
120. sp34n119w
8:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
A couple more pronunciations :)

I will not worry about the blob. Plenty of others to be concerned with.

I don't know why I didn't put your "western NC" trips together with my cousin's location before this, bogon. Nice to see connections, however distant or stretched.

Hi, bf! I've been to Weaverville, CA many times. I used to live in Redding. So, there you go - more stretching ;)
Lots of Chinese influence in the area. Shall I tell you the story of the towns of Igo and Ono? It's awfully racist but also funny and has a happy ending, of sorts.

My cat usually does not come when I call. He does know how to get me to come when he calls. Cats are not dogs, lol
Member Since: January 27, 2007 Posts: 82 Comments: 4367
119. Bogon
9:47 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
BF - I liked the video. It is a good version. (Same for SP's "proper version" of Mariah.) It has been a long time since I watched West Side Story.

Never been to Weaverville, CA. That's one connection I missed.

Ylee - It's possible that we're calling Margaret by the wrong name. My wife named her Margaret. I call her Spook, but she doesn't answer to that either.

We have one cat who comes whether you call him or not. He's just happy to be there.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
118. Ylee
3:37 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
I have a cat that didn't come when I called her name. Out of frustration, I yelled to her, "Get over here, Stupid!" She came. I've been calling her Stupid ever since!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 115 Comments: 19987
117. Barefootontherocks
3:30 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
LOL, Bogon.
I spent some time in Weaverville - an artsy little town in northern California. They even have an old Chinese temple dating back to the Gold Rush days. I promise I won't post any more youtubes from West Side Story.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 172 Comments: 21218
116. Bogon
3:10 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
SP - And they call the wind Marya...
...but does she come when you call her?

We have a cat named Margaret, but, when you call her, she either ignores you or runs away.

I have heard a couple of professional meteorologists speak of that blob that's bothering you. In each case they spoke dismissively. Perhaps during some other part of the tropical season this wave would merit greater consideration. Right now, in the peak week, with no less than three named systems on the charts, I guess we're all hoping that this one will fall through the cracks. Sorry.

Ah, Weaverville. I ate lunch in Weaverville today. My wife has relatives in Weaverville. How is it that such a wee town has such wide and various connections?

BF - Aaaugh!

Oh, well, I guess somebody had to do it. :o)
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
115. Barefootontherocks
1:47 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Hi Bogon,
I love the music from West Side Story.

This Maria is from the movie soundtrack.

I see you've had a little rain. That's good.

(Hey sp!)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 172 Comments: 21218
114. sp34n119w
1:24 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
I'm so sorry but as soon as I saw the name I thought of this -

and it's been in my head ever since. See, it's supposed to be spelled "Maria" not "Mariah". Anyways ...

That blob did start to spin a while back. If it could get away from mama Katia ... okay. Nevermind. You don't think so and Bob says no and Skye doesn't mention it and I sure don't know what I'm talking about, so that's good enough for me. If it hurries it may do as you say and give Nate some oomph. Let's hope not.

I have a cousin in someplace called Weaverville, NC and that's one reason I watch NC radar, from time to time. Is that near your folks, I wonder?
Winter's coming :)
Member Since: January 27, 2007 Posts: 82 Comments: 4367
113. Bogon
12:16 AM GMT on September 08, 2011
Now that we have a hurricane named Maria, it's surely only a matter of time until someone posts a YouTube video from The Sound of Music or West Side Story.

Not me. Nope. I'm determined to resist the temptation.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
112. Bogon
11:49 PM GMT on September 07, 2011
Hi, SP. I've been visiting my parents in the mountains of western NC this week. It was pleasantly cool up here today. I still wore shorts, but we were able to drive comfortably with the air conditioning turned off in the car. That's a big change.

It rained here for a couple of days. It was mostly light rain. A creek runs down this valley, and I could not tell that it rose much at all.

Down in the Piedmont the thermometer rose above eighty today. The front that grabbed Lee has a kink in it, and Burlington remained southeast of the front in moist tropical air throughout much of the day. As of 7 pm eastern time the temperature is 79° with 47% humidity. Tolerable but not exactly cool. The outlook for tomorrow is sunny, 83°.

I see the blob you're talking about approaching Puerto Rico. You can follow it on the MIMIC imagery up in the header. I guess the answer to your question is, that it's a regular tropical wave. It has no spin. It's just floating along looking for trouble. Maybe it can help Lee Jr. (Nate?) do battle with that dry Texas air.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
111. sp34n119w
9:29 PM GMT on September 07, 2011
Hi, Bogon. I looked at the radar in your area sometime yesterday (I think) and was sure you had to be getting drenched! Then I checked the wundermap weather stations and saw some areas got next to nada. Bummer :(
At least it's cooled down some, yes?

Hey, random tropical question and maybe you know – why aren't we worried about the blob at Katia's tail, to her SSW, sort of between Katia and Maria? It is very close to both K and M so I guess it's silly to think it could develop. Looks ominous to me but I'm a tropical weather dufus. I should go put that question in Masters' blog ;)
Member Since: January 27, 2007 Posts: 82 Comments: 4367
110. Bogon
9:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011
Howdy! Nice to find visitors after a day away from the console.

Ylee, I happened to be watching the radar on one occasion when Burlington demonstrated its talent for shooting the gap between storms. I was hoping that more storms would blow over, but the entire swath of northward moving air was shifting slowly eastward. The next batch of storms in the queue missed altogether.

DAM - What can I say? Orange and Durham counties are not in the occult rain denial zone. Folks over that way actually got rain out of Irene.

I like your map. It clearly shows Lee's streaky rainfall pattern. There's a spot of darker green up by Virgilina. If the map were zoomed in at higher resolution, it might show higher totals near Durham.

It also might show dryer spots in Alamance County. According to the map we should have gotten half an inch or more. I don't think so. Maybe a centimeter.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
109. DontAnnoyMe
6:13 PM GMT on September 07, 2011
Couple inches over here. Most of that came in the morning, with 2 storms. Some places in Durham Co. supposedly got 7", but this map doesn't reflect that.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
108. Ylee
2:30 PM GMT on September 07, 2011
DAM said he got a lot of weather in his neck of the woods; looks like the Dry Slot held up, after all. :(

Drought, heat, or rain, more of the same. You're probably right, there.
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 115 Comments: 19987
107. Bogon
2:18 PM GMT on September 07, 2011
The weather station at Alamance County airport reports about a quarter inch of rain out of the entire Lee episode. Whoopee.

It's too soon to make useful predictions concerning Lee Junior. The models are all over the place. Preliminary indications are that he will follow in his daddy's footsteps. That would be consistent with this summer's mantra, "Them that has, gets."
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
106. Bogon
6:09 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
The rain appears to be over in western North Carolina. The day came up sunny. There are layered clouds shifting on a south wind. The forecast promised a cold front, but warm and muggy conditions persist.

Rain has finally come to Burlington, but it's a far cry from the general slow soaker I was hoping for. Instead there are thin ragged streamers of rain, very much hit or miss. Looks like the stream of tropical moisture will be training over the area for a while, so perhaps there'll be more rain for the Dry Slot before it's done.

Some weather models suggest that Katia may get into the act. The northward streaming air over North Carolina may draw oceanic moisture from Katia's vicinity as she spins by. If it produces more rain where it can do the most good, I'm all for it. Don't really care where it comes from.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
105. Bogon
1:38 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Ahoy, Shore!

Yes, I know where that is. I can tell it's dry because of the exposed sandbars. I have never seen them so extensive.

I hope that Return of Son of Zombie Lee will put out the fires and fill up Lake Travis. That would be a good start for a cheesy sequel.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
104. shoreacres
2:26 AM GMT on September 06, 2011
Oh, I don't know. I like your titles pretty well. We don't care if it turns out to be the made-in-China li-Li, as long as it dumps some rain.

Which reminds me of why I landed here (apart from saying hi). Water. Specifically, what to do when the rains don't come and your state's burning up. Check out this video. I put it on my blog, too, but it's just so cool I had to share it with somebody, and you like cool stuff.

Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
103. Bogon
8:59 PM GMT on September 05, 2011
Katia looks healthy today. The model consensus is pretty healthy, too, which says Katia will be a fish storm.

Yet another scenario for the Gulf of Mexico floated to the surface today. Now it looks as though remnants of Lee may linger and fester in the Bay of Campeche, possibly resulting in the Return of Son of Lee. Or executive assistant secretary to Lee, or attack of zombie killer Lee Junior.

Probably be better if I leave the title to the marketing department.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
102. Bogon
8:48 PM GMT on September 05, 2011
So far most of Lee's best rain has gone up west of the mountains.

At my parent's home a few miles from the Tennessee border the rain started last night.
Steady light rain continues during the day today.

Still waiting for significant precipitation in the northern Piedmont. Radar shows the leading edge of the rain reaching Greensboro. The local forecast for the Dry Slot touts an 80% chance of rain today and tonight, but it ain't rainin' yet. :o(
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
101. Bogon
1:24 PM GMT on September 04, 2011
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
100. Ylee
4:01 AM GMT on September 04, 2011
So what does all this mean for the Dry Slot?
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 115 Comments: 19987
99. Bogon
11:10 PM GMT on September 03, 2011
Okay, I think that now I have seen too many runs of too many models.

Consider scenario three, promulgated by today's 12Z NAM. (The first two scenarios are detailed in an addendum to the header above.) Lee drifts north and becomes entangled with a descending cold front. The front siphons off all of Lee's juiciest convection and bears it away to places like Alabama and Georgia. As a result the center of Lee's circulation slingshots back out over the Gulf, where it regenerates. Lee survives the encounter and resumes his dervish routine in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. All us would-be forecasters are back where we started.

What are the chances? Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen.

And what about Katia? The 12Z ECMWF shows Katia parked just offshore the Bahamas waiting for Lee to make up his mind. If the NAM is right, that could be a long wait.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
98. Bogon
2:10 PM GMT on September 03, 2011
The models have made their choice: scenario one. Lee will be swept away by the next front, the one which finally brings relief from the heat in Texas.

The jury is still out on how much tropical moisture stays in the Southeast, where it is needed, and how much goes north to aggravate Irene's flooding.

Lee himself keeps nudging northward over Louisiana, backing away from the ocean which sustains him, making scenario two look less and less likely.

One more hot day.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
97. Proserpina
11:04 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 188 Comments: 19248
96. Bogon
1:18 PM GMT on September 01, 2011
Hey, BF. Glad you liked the documentary. The doggone links are screwed up on YouTube, which is probably one reason you stopped after four segments.

I'm not sure about the antecedents of Nyquil Blues. A musicologist could probably enumerate different families or genres of blues. Within each family, I'm willing to bet that there's a relatively small number of unique themes. I mean, blues are deep, but the musical forms are not that complicated. That's part of what makes them universal and accessible. Fortunately for musicians, the legal regime does not require a patent search before composition can begin.

People (like me, once upon a time) who deal in other forms of software are not so lucky. The practice of patenting computer software threatens to destroy a lively and productive cottage industry. Only giant corporations can afford to do legal research, acquire patents, pay royalties etc. before starting a software project. Perhaps that is the unstated purpose of current patent law: cut out the little man.

Oops, yet another rant. Don't get me started.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
95. Barefootontherocks
2:25 AM GMT on September 01, 2011
Hi Bogon,
The blue vid threw me. Not so much the negative blue light but the tune, not the lyric, was familiar. Like some real old blues tune. Fun visit to Broken Spoke. Marlow had a place like that till early this year. The High Chaparral. The folks, one of whom was a semi-successful entertainer and songwriter, just got too old and in too poor of health to run it any longer. It's for sale. Restaurant on the other. Bar on one side. Huge dance floor and stage in the bar.

Wanted to let you know that early this a.m., and finished up today, I watched the History Channel documentary about the 1900 storm from Isaac Cline's perspective. The link you left in my blog a while back. It was intriguing, and I would've watched it all at once but was 2 a.m. by the time I saw the first four parts. Truly enjoyed it. Thank you very much.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 172 Comments: 21218
94. Bogon
12:09 AM GMT on August 30, 2011
Hi, DAM. We got a decent shower, which actually produced puddles, got things wet, etc., although it didn't last long. Looks like we might get a little more rain soon.

The garbage truck comes tomorrow, so I had considered going forth to rake leaves, possibly mow grass this evening. This much rain lets me off the hook. It's not as if I'm chomping at the bit to get out there. I've certainly had time to accomplish these tasks before the rain. I've been lying low trying to get rid of this cough. There seems to be slow progress with that. I can taste my food again.

Shore, at first I thought you were talking about the same storm DAM mentioned. (I'm slow and bleary-eyed today.) When I looked at your map I thought no, that can't be it. Then I pushed the play button and watched the big blue low wind up and head for your back yard. Yip!

The last video I posted matches my frame of mind, but after watching it, it occurred to me that some people might wonder what to make of those cool blue interiors. Here is different footage of the same venue using properly developed film.

Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 85 Comments: 4427
93. shoreacres
11:16 PM GMT on August 29, 2011
YipYip! Here she be.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288

Viewing: 143 - 93

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

Top of Page

Dry Slot

About Bogon

Retired software engineer. "What is that?", you may ask. It's someone who has time to blog about the weather...

Bogon's Recent Photos

Mob Job
Lake Tomahawk