Relatively Quiet in the Tropics; Current Damage & Casualty Estimates for Haiyan

By: Bobbyweather , 3:43 AM GMT on November 18, 2013

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Hello, it's been a long time since I last posted a blog.

It is relatively quiet in the tropics, where only 98L is active.

98L is currently non-tropical, but is expected to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, so we need to keep an eye out for it. According to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 PM EST, there is a medium chance, or 50% of 98L transitioning into a (sub)tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a high chance, or 70% during the next five days.

According to the latest ATCF, 98L is located at 26.6N 52.7W. As you can see, the center is devoid of convection. However, this is typical of extratropical cyclones.

This shows that there is a fairly good chance of 98L developing into a tropical cyclone.

The wind shear map indicates that there is low shear near the center of 98L. Low wind shear is a contributor to tropical cyclone development.

850mb and 700mb vorticity is very strong.

So, using these observations, I predict a high chance of subtropical cyclone formation (as it is currently non-tropical) during the next 48 hours. Expect a transition to a tropical cyclone thereafter.

Here are the model forecasts for 98L:
Early cycle track forecasts:

The track forecast up to 48 hours is fairly clustered, but it spreads out after that time frame. The BAM models predict a sharp turn to the east-northeast, while the other models predict a more northerly motion.
Late cycle track forecasts:

Early cycle intensity forecasts:

Only the SHIP model and LGEM model predict that 98L will strengthen into a hurricane.

Super Typhoon Haiyan
It's been ten days since Haiyan made landfall in the central Philippines as a very strong 145-mph (195 mph according to JTWC) typhoon. Haiyan is unofficially the strongest tropical cyclone to ever make landfall (using 1-min winds), surpassing Hurricane Camille.

Here is the link to estimates of damage and casualties in the Philippines associated with Haiyan.

Summary of Damage and Casualties in the Philippines
As of 06 AM November 18 (Philippines Standard Time), 3,976 people were reported dead, 18,175 injured, and 1,598 are still missing.

The total cost of damages was pegged at PhP10,384,690,061.00(this corresponds to about 238,235,174.69 US Dollars) with
PhP1,295,508,600.00 for infrastructures and PhP9,089,181,461.00 for agriculture.

Bobby Yoo

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About Bobbyweather

Hi. I am Bobby Yoo. I live in Seoul, S. Korea, and my favorite subject is meteorology, especially tropical cyclones. I am currently sixteen years old.