Fanele, 06F

By: Bobbyweather , 7:36 AM GMT on November 19, 2008

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For the 2008 Northern Hemisphere TC season archive, see here.
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As of 1800 UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Fanele has maximum sustained winds of 35 kt and minimum pressure of 994 mb. Here is the latest advisory summarized:
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WTIO30 FMEE 220014
RSMC La Reunion
Warning number 19 for Moderate Tropical Storm 7 (Fanele)
Jan 22 2009 1800 UTC

The center of Ex-Fanele is located within 30 nm radius of point 26.4S/51.6E and is moving southeast at 15 kt.

Dvorak analysis is T2.5/2.5, the central pressure is 994 hPa, and the maximum average wind speed (10-min sustained) is 35 kt. The radius of maximum winds extend out to 50 km. The first closed isobar is 1006 hPa and the average diameter is 500 km.

Extension of winds by quadrant:
30 KT NE: 260 SE: 140 SW: 360 NW: 140

Forecast:
12 hr: 28.8S/52.6E, max wind 35 kt, Extratropical

Additional information:
Since the system has moved back over water, Fanele has a well-defined LLCC but quide wide where no deep convection has managed to build today due to moderate northwesterly wind shear. Quickscat pass at 1453Z show a wide central area of relatively weak winds (diameter about 40 nm) surrounded by a crown of strong winds. Extratropical transition is underway as system is currently leaving the heat content waters.

Most of the available NWP models are in good agreement with the forecast track.
___________________________________________________________Next, there is Tropical Depression 06F. It has not changed much. The chance for it strengthening into a TC is low.
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List of 2008-09 Southern Hemisphere storms
South-West Indian Ocean
01R.NONAME- Area of Disturbed Weather
02R.Asma- Moderate Tropical Storm
03R.Bernard- Moderate Tropical Storm
04R.Cinda- Severe Tropical Storm
05R.Dongo- Severe Tropical Storm
06R.Eric- Moderate Tropical Storm
07R.Fanele- Intense Tropical Cyclone

Australian Region
(I will change HGW's I into S.)
01S.Bernard- Tropical Low
02S.Anika- Category 2 TC
03S.Billy- Category 4 TC
04S.NONAME- Tropical Low
05S.NONAME- Tropical Low
06S.Charlotte- Category 1 TC

South Pacific Ocean
01F.NONAME- Tropical Disturbance
02F.NONAME- Tropical Depression
03F.NONAME- Tropical Disturbance
04F.NONAME- Tropical Depression
05F.NONAME- Tropical Depression
06F.NONAME- Tropical Depression
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11. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:20 AM GMT on January 21, 2009
LOL I kept reading it as 925 hPa this morning, thinking that is what it read.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
10. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:58 AM GMT on December 04, 2008
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
DEPRESSION BOB08-2008
8:30 AM IST December 4 2008
=========================================

Subject: Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

At 08:30 AM IST, Latest satellite imageries indicate that a Depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and lays centered near 6.5N 90.0E or about 650 kms south-southwest of Port Blair, 1300 kms southeast of Chennai, India, and about 1000 kms east-southeast of Tricomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
9. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:48 AM GMT on December 03, 2008
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TWO-F
15:00 PM FST December 3 2008
==========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1004 hPa) located near 18.0S 161.0W is reported as moving slowly. Position FAIR based on Multispectral infrared/visible with animation. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Convection has been persistent in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is well defined from low-high level [800-200 hPa] with deep convection to the east. Tropical Disturbance TWO lies in a moderately sheared environment. Most global models [AVN/UKGS/US/EC] are showing little deepening of the system in the next 24 hours and moves it southwest.

POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE "TWO" TO FORM INTO A CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
8. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:25 AM GMT on November 26, 2008
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB07-2008
2:30 AM IST November 26 2008

Subject: Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal

At 2:30 AM IST, The Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka coast moved northwestwards and lay centered at over southwest Bay of Bengal near 10.00 N 80.00 E, or about 50 km southeast of Vedara nniyam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Tamil Nadu coast near Vedaranniyam within a few hours.

---
This was at 21:00 PM UTC bulletin.. the latest image at (0:00 AM UTC) still has it at T2.0.. I think the landfall is just beginning in southeastern India and it won't become named. The JTWC has the system at 45 kts with a central pressure of 989 MB.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
7. wxgeek723
12:44 PM GMT on November 25, 2008
There is an investigation area, 96L. As of now, 96L is concentrated to the north of Panama and Costa Rica, and is under some heavy shear (15~30 kt). However, conditions will become favorable for development, and a tropical depression may form in the next day or two.

Actually I'm not so sure shear will let down. It's late November and in the Atlantic that means there'll be high shear in almost all the Atlantic 'til at least late May or June. I do not think 96L will develop.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3713
6. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:25 AM GMT on November 25, 2008
20081125/0222z
SE-PAC 24.0S 156.7W 1006 MB 25 kts 99P "INVEST"
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
5. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:12 PM GMT on November 24, 2008
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook - 0900z 24NOV
=========================================
This morning's low pressure area over Sri Lanks and neighborhood now lies as a well marked low pressure area over the same region. The interpretation of numerial weather prediction models indicate that the system is likely to concentrate into a depression over southwest Bay of Bengal and further intensify into a tropical cyclone during subsequent 48 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
4. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:34 AM GMT on November 24, 2008
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 24 2008
=========================================

A low pressure area has formed over Sri Lanka and adjoining neighborhood. It is likely to concentrate into a depression during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere in the north Indian Ocean
-------------------
Convective clouds are seen over south Andaman Sea, south Bay of Bengal,a nd southeast Arabian Sea.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
3. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:09 AM GMT on November 20, 2008
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 03 2008-2009
6:00 AM UTC November 20 2008
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 9.7S 84.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 18 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near gale-force winds
=================
within 45 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in northeastern quadrant

Gale-force winds
=================
up to 75 NM from the center


Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.7S 87.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 8.7S 89.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
xxxx (Out of AOR)

Additional Information
=======================
The system is accelerating eastwards. It should cross 90E on Friday. Strongest winds extend in the northeastern quadrant due to the rapid system own speed and reaching probably 35 knots in this area. Upper level west-northwesterly winds are strong but the system's quick eastward movement allows it to keep on involving within rather favorable environment within the next hours and it could reach, very temporarily, tropical storm intensity. Beyond, upper level environmental conditions (mainly intensifying northerly winds) should not allow the system to maintain its intensity. Available NWP models are in good agreement, this forecast is based on a consensus.

Center has been relocated more northern thanks to last available microwave satellite imagery.

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Gale force wind of 35 knots found but Mauritius not naming the system?!
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
2. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:53 AM GMT on November 19, 2008
looks like 99S will get the second name from the Mauritius/Seychelles list. (Bernard)

Mauritius has 03-20082009 as a tropical depression when it enters central indian ocean (Perth AOR)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
1. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:41 AM GMT on November 19, 2008
Tropical Cyclone Warning #1 (0600z 19NOV)
======================================
At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (999 hPa) located at 9.4S 78.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.8S 81.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 10.0S 84.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
=======================
Thunderstorm activity associated to the system has organized over last night. The system is quasi-stationary, but should track eastwards and intensify. Regularly within a rather favorable environment.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908

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About Bobbyweather

Hi. I am Bobby Yoo. As of Oct. 2014, I am seventeen, live in Seoul, S. Korea, and like meteorology, especially those related to tropical cyclones.