19 year old freshman at UNC Asheville majoring in atmospheric sciences. I'm deaf and proud of it :) Twitter: @KyleNoel15
By: Bluestorm5 , 8:39 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
UPDATE 2 (12:09 PM EDT 5/7/14):
While Invest 90E still look good (Figure 4), the circulation is still very broad and there's almost no more time left to tighten up the rotation to get tropcial cyclone status. It doesn't help that wind shear will increase across the area just before landfall in Mexico not too long from now. I don't think this storm will make it to tropical depression status, but we'll see. NHC still got this storm at 50% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and ATCF is still mostly the same except the pressure is now 1004 mb.
Figure 4: NOAA GOES satellite image at 1530z (11:30 EDT)
UPDATE 1 (4:57 PM EDT 5/6/14):
Well, that didn't last long. Minutes after posting this blog, National Hurricane Center decided to update their Tropical Weather Outlook to 50% of development in the next 48 hours. Honestly, I'm still skeptical of development into a tropical cyclone (whetever it's tropical depression or tropical storm) mainly because of climatology. It's still only May 6th, but we'll see. ATCF update at 18z (2 pm EDT) still got Invest 90E at 25 knots.
FIRST TROPICAL INVEST OF PACIFIC SEASON
Good afternoon, y'all. I hope everybody is enjoying this week because I know I am enjoying my first day of summer back home in Central North Carolina. It's absolutely beautiful outside with very few clouds and temperature of 85 degrees. Anyway, we finally got something to watch, tropical wise, in one of two basins. Bloggers on WU has been tracking a tropical disturbance (Figure 1) just off coast of southwestern Mexico for few days in hope of getting Pacific's first tropical storm of the season. Technically, Pacific hurricane season doesn't start until May 15th, but Mother Nature sometimes doesn't follow rules. Anyway, NHC marked this disturbance as an invest 12z (8 am EDT) this morning with the follow:
EP, 90, 2014050612, BEST, 0, 110N, 1070W, 25, 1009, DB, ..., INVEST
For those who aren't familiar with ATCF, basically we got an invest coded 90E (E for Eastern Pacific or L for Atlantic) with sustained winds of 25 knots and pressure of 1009 mb. This invest, according to ATCF, is located at latitude of 11 north and longitude of 107 west. Anyway, this invest marked the start of 2014 Pacific hurricane season unofficially. National Hurricane Center also followed up their declaration of invest with their first TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) of the season as well by giving Invest 90E 30% chance of making it at least tropical depression (Figure 2).
Figure 1: Satellite image of Invest 90E from NOAA/University of Wisconsin as of 1745z (1:45 EDT).
Figure 2: 12z TWO from National Hurricane Center
FORECASTING INVEST 90E
There really isn't too much to talk about for our little invest. It's currently in the best environment over the next few hours, but it isn't going to last long at all. This storm will struggle to spin itself as it's pretty large and broad. Increasing wind shear over the next two days isn't going to help this large low pressure at all either. Building massive high pressure between Hawaii and California will steer the storm northward into mainland Mexico in about 48 hours, which isn't enough time for storm to develop into tropical storm in my opinion. However, you can't help but think there's at least a chance by looking at the satellite loop so this is why I am giving it 30% chance of ever developing into at least tropical depression (different from NHC because chance of development in my standard is for storm's lifetime rather than 48 hours). I also think this storm will peak at around 35 mph between now and landfall somewhere in Mexico while the environment is still decent (Figure 3).
Figure 3: My forecast for Tropical Invest 90E. As usual, background map credit to Weather Underground.
One last note: this is really more of a test blog as I usually don't do Pacific unless I got nothing to do, like right now. For this year, I will do a blog for a single storm and post updates on that blog post rather than posting a whole new one. Hopefully this will save me the energy of doing new blog posts and give me more motivation of doing more blog posts on Atlantic and Pacific cyclones. We'll see how it go :)
- Kyle Noël
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