Busy weather week...

By: Zachary Labe , 4:56 PM GMT on February 16, 2009

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 2/16)
Good afternoon! Wow, 16days since I posted a blog, my apologies. It was nice to take a bit of a break from blogging, but I am now ready for more interesting weather.

There has been a lot of talk from everyone including myself about the end of winter. Really, though, it seems premature to say that as the calendar only shows it being mid February. Yes, by this time the sun does make it difficult for daytime road snow accumulations and difficult to hold a snow pack, but some of our biggest snows have been held in the next few weeks. Just think that six years ago on this President's day we were sitting in glory at one of the largest snowstorms to hit this region. Yes it was only six years ago, which is not really that far off. I think we are all a bit irritated by the disappointment of long term forecasts to the point where I do not even mention any storm predictions until several days before the event. This winter has proved senseless in forecasting long term. Then you have to wonder why the models did not show great lakes cutters only to be changed a few days before the event to a nor'easter. But overall as I have been continuing to mention, the pattern has not been supportive of coastal storms. And yes we go another year without a true Miller A storm and a true Miller B storm. The pattern has been progressive and transient which we call all thank La Nina. Forecasts for this winter we of snowier conditions than last year, but really we are about the same. The La Nina took everyone by surprise including the NCEP. This winter's forecast of colder than normal conditions definitely panned out though considering the brutal January we had and below normal November and December. But I will leave winter forecast verifications for another time. To get the snowy winter we desire, we have to get rid of La Nina and get rid of the decadal negative PDO. Until then, we will not see snowy conditions return. Current predictions bring Nino conditions in a few months, so I guess we will see. For those still wishing for a major, historic winter storm; they will be hard to come by through the rest of winter. Conditions would have to be perfect in this type of pattern, and we have had anything but a lucky winter. In any case I would bet on some more snow before the winter's end, and it is definitely too premature to end winter now. Mid March, yes but mid February, definitely not. Have a wonderful day!

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 2/16)
A weak shortwave passing to our south with best forcing remaining to our south will result in cloudy conditions over the mountains and light snow showers. Decent dendritic growth and colder surface and upper air temperatures will support higher snow ratios near 15:1 giving way to light accumulations C-2inches especially over the northern Laurel Highlands in northern Somerset and Cambria Counties. A 1028mb high pressure will move across the region later Monday eroding western snow showers and strato-cumulus clouds. Clear skies will prevail Monday night under ideal radiational cooling conditions. Tuesday will feature clear skies and near normal temperatures under the high pressure regime before high cirrus clouds funnel in across western and westcentral Pennsylvania later in the day. Clouds will lower and expand Tuesday night as the next storm system approaches from the region. A 996mb low pressure will go roaring up through the Great Lakes with limited moisture available along with lacking decent frontogenisis. H85s rise above 0C across most areas south of Turnpike nearly immediately as precipitation moves into region. Mid level H8 will also feature a warm nose for areas around and just north turnpike giving way to more sleet than snow. Any sleet/snow accumulation will be light to none south of I-80. Some better mid level forcing and colder air will give areas across northern Pennsylvania generally 1-2inches with possibly 4inches for areas especially in northeastern portions of the state and the higher elevations. After the upper level southeasterly winds with rising temperatures, boundary layer temperatures will shortly rise limiting the freezing rain threat. Clouds will inhibit temperatures from falling too much Tuesday night. Best chance of ice accretions will be across northern Pennsylvania with up to .2inches of ice. Elsewhere accretions will be up to and less than .1inch. Cold front passes through region later Wednesday night with rapidly falling H85s. Precipitation amounts with first system will generally be .25inches for most areas with some areas with QPF near .5inches especially across northeastern regions. A dry slot may even move in for eastern areas. As a colder northwest flow rushes into region for Thursday a weak broad shortwave will move into the region giving way to widespread orographic snows. Snow accumulations will be advisory criteria for western and some central areas with accumulations 2-5inches. Areas east of mountains will generally see a trace to up to an inch and a half. Northwest flow keeps most western terminals at MVFR or IFR conditions for Thursday and part of Friday. Another trough moves in for the weekend with a potential Alberta Clipper dropping down from Canada. Some model guidance suggests moderate QPF events for the clipper, but at this point that idea looks suspicious.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Weekly Forecasts" (Updated 2/16)
Monday- High pressure generally dominates the region except for a weak wave moving to our south. Low stratus clouds will prevail over the Alleghenies and Laurels throughout the day with lake effect snow showers. Higher snow ratios even with poor forcing should result in light accumulations on favored ridges with nearly 1-3inches in some areas. Winds will generally be light today out of the north-northwest near 5mph. Highs will remain on the cool side with temperatures just slightly below normal ranging from the upper 20s over the mountains to the upper 30s in the south and eastern portions of the state. High pressure moves into the region for Monday night giving way to clearing skies and calm winds. Radiational cooling will give way to cold low temperatures in the teens for most locations to single digits for a few sheltered and colder valleys in Tioga and Potter Counties.

Tuesday- High pressure remains in control for generally a nice day. Temperatures will be a few degrees on either side of normal values with highs in the 40s for eastern areas and low 30s for the mountains. Skies will be sunny with only a few low clouds over the higher elevations in Cambria and northern Somerset County. A cirrus deck will move in across the region later in the day Tuesday especially across western areas. Warm air advection will expand and lower the cloud deck as evening approaches. Tuesday night will feature lows warming across western areas and steady lows for central areas with cooling lows for eastern areas. Cloud deck will inhibit any significant radiational cooling for most locales. Light snow will break out across the west quickly changing to sleet followed by plain rain within an hour or so. A coating of snow is possible across the Laurel Highlands as colder air will hang tough. Lows will be around 32degrees in western Pennsylvania with mid to upper 20s elsewhere.

Wednesday- A low stratus deck dominates the region for most of the day as a low pressure heads up northwest of Pennsylvania. Warm air advection will promote some snow generally north of I-80 with accumulations 1-4inches. South of I-80 snow accumulations will be anywhere from a trace to up to one inch. Surface temperatures will warm up enough for most areas to turn to plain rain by afternoon. Some freezing rain is possible in favored mountain slope locations with accretions up to .1inch for most areas. Dense fog will be across north central Pennsylvania where deep snow pack remains. Rainfall amounts will generally be light as dry slotting should cut down on totals. Rainfall amounts will be up to .25inches for most areas. High temperatures will be in the 30s for most areas in the mountains and to the east. 40s will be prevalent for western Pennsylvania. Wednesday night will feature plain rain for all locations with light amounts. A cold front advancing in from the west will slowly change over some locations to light snow across the west. Tight pressure gradient may bring some gusty winds by day break also. Low temperatures will generally be in the 30s for most locations.

Thursday- A wave approaches from the west along with slowly dropping temperatures for Thursday. Widespread snow shower activity will be across the western half of Pennsylvania with more intermittent snow shower activity for eastern areas. Snow accumulations will be in the 2-5inch range for favored mountains and 1-3inches for valley locations. East of the mountains snow accumulations will range from only a Trace to up to 2inches. Little if any snow accumulation will be southeast of the Allentown-Reading-Coatesville line. Winds may also be a bit gusty under the northwest flow with occasional gusts up to 35mph for some locations. It may approach wind advisory criteria for the higher elevations. Blowing snow will cause poor travel conditions at times during the day Thursday. Highs will be falling but generally in the upper 20s and 30s for the western half of the state and in the upper 30s to low 40s for eastern areas. Thursday night will feature more snow showers will accumulations more widespread as sun sets. An additional C-2inches is possible in many locations. Winds will continue to be breezy and occasional gusty. Lows will be cold in the teens and 20s for many areas. Clouds will be prevalent across the state.

Friday- Snow showers will be ongoing for areas in the mountains and favored northwest regime areas during the first half of Friday with very light additional snow accumulations generally less than one inch. Downsloping winds will give way to partly cloudy skies for other locations. Temperatures for highs will be below normal with mid to upper 30s for eastern areas and low to mid 20s for the mountains. Winds will begin to be a bit more calm. Frozen lake Erie will inhibit widespread lake effect snow. Friday night will feature partly cloudy skies statewide as a potential clipper moves into the region. Lows will be in the 20s statewide.

"Current River Ice Reports and Ski Conditions" (Updated 2/16)
Much of the once expansive river and lake has melted thanks to the early February warm spell and extended winter heat wave. But there are still many smaller ponds that had nearly 12inch thick ice, with ice still remaining. Any ice on any ponds/lakes/rivers is very unsafe and no one should be walking on it. There ice is very thin in spots that can not be visible to the naked eye. For the coming week any ice activity should be canceled and taken with caution for northern mountain areas. Ski conditions remain decent statewide courtesy of the snowy and cold January that aided in the best conditions in years. Some fresh snow has coated most areas with C-2inches from Saturday night especially around the turnpike. Additional snow accumulations do look likely this week. The Laurel Highlands should expect an additional 1inch of snow Monday. Another 1-2inches of snow early Wednesday. Snow accumulations in the Thursday to Friday time frame will be advisory criteria with total 3-6inches for most slopes. For the Poconos, 1-4inches is possible early Wednesday. An additional 1-4inches is possible Thursday and early Friday. Across southern slopes in the southcentral mountains and Lehigh Valley hills accumulations will be spotty this week with up to 2inches in isolated locations Thursday. A coating of snow is also possible early Wednesday. Snow making conditions will return for the weekend for all locations with a possible clipper type system for next weekend possibly affecting all of the slopes with new snow.

-Link to official reports page from NWS...Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions...Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Windchills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 2/16)
With Lake Erie generally frozen over, it will inhibit any significant lake effect snow outbreaks. But this week will feature some lake effect and orographic snow activity. Monday will feature a shortwave passing to the south of Pennsylvania. But under the northwest flow and slightly added moisture will give way to some snow showers for the Laurel Highlands and central Mountains. Snow accumulations will be light and limited to generally grassy surfaces with them ranging from C-2inches. Mt. Davis and Laurel Summit will see slightly higher totals up to 3inches. Under the 310 trajectory flow, northern facing slopes will do best in this setup also. High pressure remains in control for Tuesday. A synoptic event will occur Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Then a more cyclonic flow will occur for Thursday and could be quite significant for some mountain locations. An enhancing shortwave and gusty 300 trajectory flow will favor widespread lake effect snow shower activity. High Omega values and decent dendritic growth will favor snow ratios near 20:1 for some of the higher elevations above 2000ft. Snow may at times be heavy for parts of the Laurel Highlands during the day Thursday limiting visibility and conditions to IFR for KJST, KBFD, KAOO, KFIG, KERI, and KPIT. Snow accumulations for the valleys will be 1-4inches. Snow activity will be lake effect completely driven by Thursday night and Friday with additional 1-3inches of snow for typical upslope locations including parts of northeastern Pennsylvania in Bradford and Wayne Counties. Weak ridging moves in for late Friday ahead of the next trough with potential lake effect snow behind that for Sunday and Monday with light accumulations.

"Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Lake Erie Water Temperature"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 2/16)
I will quickly mention the possibility of a clipper for next weekend. Latest guidance suggests it dropped down from Canada with even the GFS showing a hybrid Miller B scenario for a coastal storm. EURO hinted at this a few model runs ago also. But take it with a grain of salt at this point. For now it is just another thing to monitor this week. As far as the long term pattern goes, it looks relatively normal with seasonal cold air and chances of storms. Nothing really strong enough to indicate extreme warmth or extreme cold. Sometimes in these seasonal patterns some areas can see some decent snows. MJO looks a bit more favorable by late Month in phase 7 and 8. NAO looks neutral and with a negative PNA. Lack of any blocking and the progressive flow should inhibit any significant east coast storm from forming. The EURO is a bit warmer than the GFS in late month with slightly deep western trough. Overall long pattern really could go either way, so no reason to give up hope on snowless storms. Pattern looks fairly like last February Nina like, and we picked up snow in that type of pattern making up for earlier in the winter.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (February)
Well January finishes on quite a cold note continuing the trend for my winter outlook of below normal temperatures. I am very pleased with my forecast for January of below normal temperatures and normal snowfall. All climate reporting locations in Pennsylvania have reported a below normal mean generally in the (-2)-(-5). Snowfall for the month came in below normal for southern and eastern areas thanks to some mixing. But other than Philadelphia anomalies for snowfall were not really too far off typical means. Lake effect snow belts reported above normal snowfall for January along with northern Pennsylvania which saw well above normal snowfall. Overall January went relatively according to plan. February's forecast does not look quite so easy to forecast. February is the last month for my winter forecast that consisted of December, January, and February and the month looked to be volatile in terms of pattern. Looking at teleconnections the CPC NAO index does report a negative reading for the first half of the month. But looking at heights up towards Iceland it seems that this will be an east based negative NAO which does not really help winter storms for the eastern CONUS. When the models were progging our inland superstorm the low bombed out to near 950mb across northern Canada and changing the overall pattern. Large systems like that generally are pattern changers. So when this 950mb low headed north it shifted the negative NAO to a more favorable west based negative NAO. This no longer seems to be the case. Looking at the PNA it is headed negative giving way to an unfavorable negative state making the Pacific a thorn in our side to try to get any winter storms. The only positive thing I can find in the teleconnections is the highly negative AO progged by mid month. But with a lack of cold air across the northern Hemisphere this may be difficult to occur. The MJO looks to be in unfavorable phases during this month for eastern troughing. It also appears again we have an active northern jet stream which will favor southwest flow events, overrunning systems. This leads me to believe a lower confidence than normal monthly outlook.

Temperature- I am going to take a risk and go against what has been the case this entire winter. I am forecasting normal to above normal temperatures. Above normal temperatures should range from (+2)-(+4). Areas at most risk for above normal temperatures will be south of I-80 as a weak trough may hang up over New England keeping those areas cooler including northern Pennsylvania. The first half of the month definitely looks to be more mild than towards mid month when potentially colder air works in.

Precipitation- Precipitation wise I am going with normal precipitation with normal to below normal snowfall. The northern jet should be active, but with lacking surface features and teleconnections it should be harder to get all snow events. This does not mean a large snowstorm is not possible because towards the 10-12 there have been some indications of potentially a snowstorm. Also with the lakes just above frozen over, this will limit lake effect snow. In any case February is typically the snowiest month for Pennsylvania, so I guess we will see what happens this month.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Winter 2008-2009 forecast... Link.
-Winter 2008-2009 forecast update... Link.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2008-2009 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- Trace
Monthly Total- 3.85inches
Seasonal Total- 22.40inches
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 1
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 4

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 14degrees
Lowest Low Temperature- -3degrees
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Snow - October 29 - Trace
First Snow on Ground - November 18 - Coating
Lake Effect Snow - November 21/22 - 6.00inches
Synoptic Snow - December 16 - 3.50inches
Clipper - January 17-19 - 1.50inches
Synoptic Snow - January 27/28 - 4.00inches
Lake Effect Snow - 2.00inches

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104. TheRasberryPatch
3:54 PM GMT on February 21, 2009
Mason - yes, my receiver has a port in the back to connect to the pc. so i need to have the receiver close to the computer. be nice to be able to move the receiver around.
my signal strength may have faded for the spot.

this is the link for cwop
Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
103. Mason803
9:03 AM GMT on February 21, 2009
trp,

now with davis, is the port you need to connect to the pc in the back of the console? rainwise has a seperate intereface with its own reciever which means i can put the display anywhere in the house. now with my old wireless stations, i've been told that as time goes on, the signal strengh can fade. its not dramatic by any stretch, but enough to where your favorite spot for your reciever may not work anymore. that may explain your current problem. there's also interference problems that can cut down your signal.(tv, telephone, electric fence etc) there's some food for thought. as far as cwop, no i'm not a current member. i actually don't know much about them or cocorahs. offically i'm a coop observer (gettysburg 6w) and spotter for nws ctp.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
102. Zachary Labe
1:22 AM GMT on February 21, 2009
weathergeek5- Long time, good evening! I usually do not issue a formal Spring forecast. I issue a strictly winter forecast around Labor Day and a strictly summer forecast in early April. I am getting ready for some summer time thunderstorms. I am hoping everyone sticks around for the summer to join in on the thunderstorm forecasting.


*Special surprise blog coming tomorrow morning!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
101. weathergeek5
12:59 AM GMT on February 21, 2009
Hey blizz. Man it was cold and windy especially earlier today. Last week was the the warm weather right? Ever since then I want warmer weather. In march will you issue your spring forecast at the start of meteorological spring?

This came from my NWS:

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT ALBEIT COLD. WEATHER GRIDS ARE EMPTY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IF I
WERE TO WRITE A STORY ABOUT TONIGHT, I SUPPOSE IT WOULD BE ABOUT THE
WINDS AND THE TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S EVERYWHERE. WHILE THIS IS COLDER THAN NORMAL, WERE A LONG,
LONG WAYS FROM ANY RECORDS. WE NEED TO REMEMBER IT`S STILL FEBRUARY.
LAST WEEK`S WARM READINGS THREW MANY OF US OFF
.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
100. Zachary Labe
10:42 PM GMT on February 20, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- It uses infrared satellite, but I agree it is the best infrared satellite resolution you will find. It comes in helpful at night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
99. TheRasberryPatch
10:39 PM GMT on February 20, 2009
Blizz - the one thing i like about the one i liked was it showed the clouds at night. am i wrong? that is cool with the zoom in and out

Mason - tell me about the wireless stations. for two years my base station was receiving well. now the past month its been having all kinds of problems. i hope i have found a new spot for it, but what makes it difficult is it has to be close enough to the computer. like i have mentioned before it would be nice for Davis to come up with some way to send the data wirelessly from the base.

btw - Mason are you a member of CWOP?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
98. Mason803
10:23 PM GMT on February 20, 2009
trp,

the reasoning for so many stations was to compare the accuracy of mostly temperature senor. the standard for measuring temp for coop is to use a mmts setupLink the nws rep was trying to find the station that shadows the temp from the mmts. i'm not sure what he's found out yet. i have an extra anemometer here but i'd like a backup station so i don't miss a report. these wireless stations can act up sometimes.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
97. Zachary Labe
10:23 PM GMT on February 20, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- I still think the best accuracy is this satellite. Also seen in my blog. It has a very high accuracy resolution... Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
96. TheRasberryPatch
9:21 PM GMT on February 20, 2009
Blizz - it does look like either air temp or maybe even water temp. the goes satellite does a great job on clouds.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
95. Zachary Labe
8:04 PM GMT on February 20, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Neat website. I like that Wunderground map at the bottom of the page. Is that air temperature/nexrad radar combo?

Mason803- I have another professional weather station along with my Davis, but it does not have near the accuracy being only the top of the line lacrosse station which is not even in the same league. I also have another weather station with an anemometer feature. So I guess in total three weather stations with two major ones and a moderate one.

dragonflyF15- Thanks for stopping by!

Snowlover2010- I would go with a more 1-3inch like most all areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
94. PalmyraPunishment
1:29 PM GMT on February 20, 2009
Quoting Snowlover2010:
hey Bliz I am heading back to Raystown this weekend, how much snow could I see? I am thinking a good 3-4in?


oh goodie. i'll be up there too. i'll come find you and kick you in the junk for the lancaster footer from a couple weeks back.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
93. Snowlover2010
1:20 PM GMT on February 20, 2009
hey Bliz I am heading back to Raystown this weekend, how much snow could I see? I am thinking a good 3-4in?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
92. TheRasberryPatch
12:29 PM GMT on February 20, 2009
wow, Mason - 7 stations for your boss and 2 for you. are they all the same capabilities? and why? maybe you can give me some insight on having another.
i have my main VP station and a couple of temp gauges in the house, just so i know what the temp is probably outside and not have to walk to my station. they are just cheap basic ones.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
91. dragonflyF15
8:37 AM GMT on February 20, 2009
Since tomorrow is the start of our Mardi Gras celebration I thought I'd send some luvin' to ya'll!

zwani.com myspace graphic comments
Graphics for Mardi Gras CommentsSince tomorrow is the start of our Mardi Gras celebration I thought I'd send some luvin' to ya'll!

zwani.com myspace graphic comments
Graphics for Mardi Gras Comments
Member Since: February 13, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 2153
90. Mason803
3:06 AM GMT on February 20, 2009
trp,

checked out the link. that's a nice looking setup. I once had a davis system. my first ever station was a weather wizard III. I liked it and had no problems. i might get the vp2 aspirated once my tax refund comes to compare it with mine. i know the nws coop manager has like 7 stations in his yard so i don't feel so bad having 2. lol
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
89. TheRasberryPatch
2:16 AM GMT on February 20, 2009
blizz just though i would show you this website. i found it through an email from Davis. Apparently, they went with a VP2 for their equipment. Maybe, Mason will come around hahaha make sure you scroll through the website. nice radars and visible satellite i think

Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
88. TheRasberryPatch
2:11 AM GMT on February 20, 2009
thanks blizz

pretty good wind storm out there this evening
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
87. Zachary Labe
1:20 AM GMT on February 20, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- It looks like a weak nuisance event. Sort of typical of a frontal passage with snow showers. Main clipper low heads north of area. Only C-2inch type amounts I am expecting for most locales.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
86. TheRasberryPatch
12:55 AM GMT on February 20, 2009
hmmmmmm i guess that makes sense. i mean it is precipitation that has fallen to the ground.

what do the models say for saturday? is it like your blog predicts or will it be different?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
85. Zachary Labe
12:35 AM GMT on February 20, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Yep. It counts. According to the National Weather Service policies they are as followed...

Snowfall is defined as the depth of new snow that has fallen and accumulated given a period of time.

1)If snow partially melts, and some accumulation takes place, the daily snowfall should be recorded as the greatest accumulation of new snow observed at any time during the day.

2)If snow accumulates, then melts, and accumulates again, the snowfall is the sum of each new accumulation.

(Courtesy of my Meteorological Book Collection of Northeast Snowstorms by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
84. TheRasberryPatch
12:01 AM GMT on February 20, 2009
very windy outside. i have had more than a few gusts in the 30's with the high gust being 37mph.
let me ask you Blizz - does the snow we got yesterday and today account towards the accumulation for the season if it melts in an hour? is there a time frame?

i see the forecast for Sat is a 50% chance of snow. even into Sunday
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
83. Zachary Labe
8:45 PM GMT on February 19, 2009
pittsburghnurse- Yep, just off and on snow showers.


*Two very short, but nasty squalls moved across my area around noon and dropped both each a coating of snow which melted when the sun came out. But during the time visibility was down below .25mile.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
82. pittsburghnurse
5:41 PM GMT on February 19, 2009
Got about a half inch on the ground mostly from last night. Every hour or so a squall comes by blowing snow and visibility decreases. Nothing on the roads. The sun keeps popping out. The radar doesn't show much in the way of big snow coming this way. Just more of the same of popcorn snow showers. Is this pretty much it for us?
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
81. Zachary Labe
11:01 AM GMT on February 19, 2009
Dense fog out there this morning! Snow squalls will be around Pennsylvania later this afternoon with most of them over the mountains, but some may drift to the east.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
80. TheRasberryPatch
3:03 AM GMT on February 19, 2009
haven't seen her around here in a long time.
very froggy outside tonight
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
79. Zachary Labe
2:09 AM GMT on February 19, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- It was a nice soaking steady rain. Good for their drought; I wonder how hurigo did?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
78. TheRasberryPatch
2:08 AM GMT on February 19, 2009
i haven't checked, but it looked like a pretty good rain event for the carolinas. i bet they got close to an inch throughout, if not more.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
77. Zachary Labe
1:13 AM GMT on February 19, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Some isentropic lift and warm air advection combined with a moist southerly flow led to a stratiform rain event across NC this morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
76. jaypup
12:46 AM GMT on February 19, 2009
Just a link to the canadian model earlier that WUSA9's TPann posted....I'm still dreaming.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename= 00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg
Member Since: February 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
75. TheRasberryPatch
11:32 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
so the rain in the carolina's was strictly from a front moving through?
and is our cold front out around pittsburgh?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
74. Zachary Labe
10:47 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- A 996mb low went up through the Great Lakes. Warm air advection drove much of our convective precipitation today in the "warm slot." The highly convective nature of the precipitation caused the supercooled water droplets or otherwise known as graupel. A secondary low formed off of New England, although it actuality formed off of Long Island farther south than expectred creating the double barrel barclonic zone with both lows in the 990 range. Cold front moves through with sharp northwesterly windy flow creating upslope snow showers. Steep low level lapse rates along with a pocket a very cold air could make for some heavy snow squalls with diurnal heating.

Snowlover2010- Looks like a mix of sleet/graupel there. Definitely another interesting day. If we got a large snowstorm this winter, this really would have been a pretty great winter.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
73. Snowlover2010
10:22 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
Hey Bliz what a day! This morning I picked up .5in of snow. This afternoon it was washed away. Now I just had what I thought was a hail storm but maybe it was that graupel stuff. To tell ya the truth I never heard of graupel. Here are some pics of it:


Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
72. TheRasberryPatch
10:08 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
can you explain the storm system, Blizz. i can't tell much from the visible satellite and from the radar.
it appeared a low went off the coast earlier near NC/SC border. what does that have to do with us and our precip?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
71. TheRasberryPatch
10:05 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
i am now getting graupel pretty good size. i measured one at 5mm dia. about the size of an early pea.

temp is 34.0F
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
70. Zachary Labe
9:48 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
Light rain here now.
32.6degrees
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
69. TheRasberryPatch
9:47 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
rain and sleet here coming down hard. temp is 33.8F
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
68. Zachary Labe
9:38 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- It formed a secondary low a bit farther south locking the cold air in a bit longer. Currently snow/graupel here coming down light to moderate.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
67. TheRasberryPatch
9:17 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
it appears that the weather isn't cooperating with the forecast for this morning and afternoon.
temp has risen slightly since precip has stopped and it got bright. it is getting darker again.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
66. Zachary Labe
9:12 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- The precipitation type factor is this whole event has been bizzarre. I bet roads are horrible. They quickly became snow covered here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
65. TheRasberryPatch
9:10 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
it was sleet here. just like that the precip has stopped and it is lighten up. but it appears more is on the way.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
64. Zachary Labe
9:02 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Most of the precipitation was graupel when it hit here. If it is small snow balls it is likely graupel. Upon further review there was no actual sleet here. Looks like another .25inches to add to a daily total so far of 1inch exactly.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
63. TheRasberryPatch
8:59 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
its mostly sleet now. coming down hard that is probably the oranges and reds showing up on radar
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
62. Zachary Labe
8:59 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Dropped exactly two degrees here in the band now at 32.5degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
61. TheRasberryPatch
8:57 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
its is surprising the temp has only dropped 0.5F at 33.5F and the roads are getting covered.
the reds appeared to have missed me, but it is still coming down hard
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
60. Zachary Labe
8:46 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
Wow, this is one band of snow/sleet/graupel. I haven't seen something like this in recent memory. Roads are white. Visibility below .25miles. Sleeting extremely heavy combined with heavy snow. Red DBZ.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
59. TheRasberryPatch
8:46 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
and that fast the snowflakes are coming down like a downpour in the summer
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
58. TheRasberryPatch
8:44 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
just starting to snow here. it is 34.0F with 99% humidity
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
57. Zachary Labe
8:41 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
Wow, what a line. HUGE snow flakes! Very heavy snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
56. Zachary Labe
8:35 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
jaypup- Even the GGEM has backed off on the coastal this afternoon. So I think this should just be a nuisance event.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
55. jaypup
8:30 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
Blizzard--I was reading Tony Pann's blog from wusa9 and was intigued by the possibilty. he has alink to teh canadian model which he says shows the best chance for snow this weekend. I'm skeptical though.
Member Since: February 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
54. Zachary Labe
8:26 PM GMT on February 18, 2009
jaypup- You might be too far south for much. Flow seems to progressive for coastal storms.


Here north of Harrisburg...
33degrees
heavy graupel
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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