Pennsylvania severe weather...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:10 AM GMT on February 01, 2009

Share this Blog
0
+

"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 2/1)
This blog does not yet contain information on the coastal storm so the weekly forecast and discussion is only valid for Sunday. But by Sunday afternoon I will update on post the full discussion and forecasts for each day for the rest of the week.

Good evening all!!! There has been quite a bit of talk about the state of meteorology and forecasts. Has forecast accuracy really increased in the last 10 years or has it declined? The age of technology and advancement of meteorology proves that we should be advancing. New Doppler radar, satellites, and computer models are supposed to be making the 3-day forecast become as accurate as the 1-day forecast and the 5-day forecast as accurate as the 3-day forecast and so on. But is this really the case? I mean look at our computer models. For predicting the 1993 superstorm all there really was, was the ETA model. And then along came the NGM. There were other models too. Now we have a plethora of computer models. Forecasting use to just consist of analyzing surface maps, patterns, and trends. Since then the real forecasting of weather seems to have diverted away from the old habits. But I firmly believe this is not the correct road to chose. When choosing to make a forecast you come to a two road path; either take the short road and take the computer models verbatim, or take the hilly road and look at overall pattern schemes to make forecasts. The later always seems to be more accurate. But that is not to say that forecasting without computer models is a solid accuracy. In fact during a test trial at the HPC, two meteorologists were chosen with one doing a QPF forecast looking at computer models while another meteorologist analyzed surface patterns. The computer model QPF forecast in the end proved to be more accurate. A balance of these two roads makes up the equation to an accurate forecast. In reality, the science of meteorology is relatively young and based off of complicated mathematical equations and a basis of many sciences such as Physics. Model verification will increase as continuously new satellites will take data from a global perspective and add them to the existing computer models. There are still many "white noise" locations across the globe where data is relatively limited and this results in highly volatile solutions capable of many scenarios in the long to medium term. Absolute forecasts are non-existent in every storm. We still do not have a great idea of how the atmosphere works and how weather in Asia correlates to weather patterns in North America. But we have come a long way from the magnetic local news weather boards of previous decades. Forecasts with the highest accuracy rating are those of a combination of old and new habits. And as new weather balloon data and ROAB data is launched, the practice of weather forecasts will improve. Overall analyzing patterns and hand drawing surface maps is just as accurate as looking at computer model simulations. The field of meteorology is a growing and continuously complex science that will mature greatly in the next 10 years. All we can do is take our best guess at what the weather will be tomorrow. But yes all it is, is an educated guess. We cannot quite prediction the future, but we sure can try. Looking towards the future we can only expect more "waking up to 10inches of partly cloudy," but we can hope those occurrences are far and in between.

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 2/1)
A retreating trough gives way to a southwesterly flow for Sunday bringing in some mild air. A clipper system will be headed across the Northern Great Lakes and deepening to nearly 990mb which will help intensify the warm air advection. H85s will rise slightly above 0C across the Mason-Dixon line, but generally 850s will be near 0C statewide. A few snow showers cannot be ruled out across the northwestern part of the state as some .05 QPF is generated by the GFS and NAM. 2m temperatures will rise to nearly 5-7C across southern areas under a breezy southwesterly wind. Looking at the H5 chart a deepening trough will be dropping out of the Great Lakes towards Monday along with the passing of a cold front.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Weekly Forecasts" (Updated 2/1)
Sunday- An approaching cold front will draw in southwesterly winds bringing in more mild air. Breezy conditions will persist throughout the day with gusts up to nearly 30mph on the southern facing ridgetops. Temperatures will rise into the 40s and possibly 50s. Snow cover will try to limit the warmth, but I think low 40s are likely across northern Pennsylvania with mid 40s in central Pennsylvania, and upper 40s for southern Pennsylvania. Areas near Philadelphia should rise to 50degrees or slightly above. Skies will feature altocumulus with some rain showers across the Laurel Highlands and snow showers across the Northwestern Mountains. Rain amounts will generally be near a trace with snow accumulations generally a coating to one half an inch. Downsloping conditions will cause no precipitation for east central and eastern Pennsylvania. Sunday night the cold front will move across the region bring a shift in the winds to the northwest. Lows will generally be in the low 20s in the mountains to upper 20s across the south under mostly cloudy skies. The front should stall across western New Jersey. A disturbance will ride up along the front bringing snow showers into southwestern Pennsylvania later Sunday night. Snow accumulations will be up to 1inch.

"Current River Ice Reports and Ski Conditions" (Updated 2/1)
Finally we got our cold and relatively snowy January that many people had been asking about for years. All waterways across the entire state of Pennsylvania have at least a little ice on them with most of them being frozen over. Latest ice reports from the Susquehanna area that most of the river is completely frozen over with 10% free flowing water near the Harrisburg river reporting station. Ice consists of frazil pans with snow cover. Up across the northern sections of the Susquehanna River there are reports of 100% ice/snow coverage near Lewisburg. Up towards Williamsport the east channel remains without ice, but the west channel is completely frozen over. Across the Juniata river basin near Clarks Bridge they are reporting complete ice cover with no free flowing water. Towards the Delaware River ice coverage is becoming thicker over time especially towards the Delaware Water Gap. Up across north central Pennsylvania near the Pennsylvania Grand Canyon Pine Creek is being reported as completely snow/ice covered with only free flowing water near the ripple locations. Across western Pennsylvania the triple river connector near Pittsburgh is being reported as ice covered. Across local lakes ice thickness is generally being reported with a 6-8inch thickness across the northern mountains with ice fishing having perfect conditions. Across southern Pennsylvania ice thickness in not thick enough on large lakes for most areas. Across the Lake Erie basin the lake is nearly completely frozen over with ice fishing being reported as quite popular. Overall it appears the winter time sports of ice fishing and ice skating look to have wonderful conditions continuing through next week as temperatures will only rise above freezing for one or two days on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures then drop below normal for the rest of the week. It still is very unsafe to walk across any frozen rivers as the ice is quite misleading and especially now with snow covering the ice hiding its actual thickness. Waterway ice conditions are being reported as the best in years!

Ski conditions are being reported as the best in years with many ski resorts reporting bases up to 70inches of snow in Pennsylvania. Locations across the Laurel Highlands have just picked up some fresh powder, 2-7inches, from some lake effect snow Friday night and conditions look to be great through next week. Blue Knob is reporting 85% operation of trails with other locations reporting up to 100%. Ski conditions across south-central Pennsylvania are the best in a decade with Roundtop, Whitetail, and Liberty reporting nearly 50inch snow bases and full operation under some new snow from last Wednesday and a bit Friday afternoon and evening. Conditions across the Poconos and northern Lehigh Valley are excellent after nearly 7-9inches of snow fell from midweek. Shawnee Mountain is report 100% of the trails open with a 72inch snow base that is not going anywhere until late May. Blue Mountain ski is reporting 98% operation with even 20 lanes of snow tubing going on. Camelback is reporting great conditions along with other ski resorts. Take advantage of the next seven days as these great conditions will not last forever. For once it seems like ski resorts are not struggling in the snow department this year.

-Link to official reports page from NWS...Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions...Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Windchills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 2/1)
Well Lake Erie froze over just about completely this winter, which hasn't happened in a few years. This has limited lake effect snow outbreaks for the past few weeks and this looks to continue. It does appear there is the potential for some lake effect snow for this coming week. As a low pressure pulls out to sea the flow will turn northwesterly near the 310degree trajectory. This will be towards Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile as that trough is departing a ridge will be moving in from the Mississippi Valley keeping the flow northwesterly. With Lake Erie generally frozen over and with ice on Lake Ontario and Huron this outbreak will not be too widespread nor strong. H85s will near -15C or potentially colder for a time. Looking at Omega fields near Bradford there does appear to be some weak omega and with dendritic growth. This should result in ample snow growth with ratios up to 20:1 in some areas. Western and northern facing ridges will see the most lake effect snow likely across the Northwest Mountains. The flow does not quite appear westerly enough for widespread bands in the Laurel Highlands. Snow accumulations should range in the moderate category likely 3-6inches with isolated amounts in Warren, McKean, Erie, and Crawford Counties near 8inches. Snow accumulations across the Laurel Highlands and North Central Mountains will be more on the order of 1-4inches. Some snow showers and flurries should be able to make it east of the mountains at times also with a possible coating or two along the Raystown Lake-Lewistown-State College-Williamsport line. Also across the northeastern mountains in Bradford and Wayne County there could be some streamers as flow is northerly during the day Tuesday. 1-3inches of snow will remain possible. Overall though this snow should just be a nuisance for snowbelts.

"Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Lake Erie Water Temperature"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 2/1)
While it sure looks like the cold of winter and snow of winter is here to continue from looking outside the window, this does not seem to be the case starting late next week. An extended relaxation period looks to be upon us. Looking across the Globe it seems that extreme brutally cold air is hard to find. Across the North Pole there also has been above normal temperatures resulting in no increase in ice cover in the past week or two. It appears the cold air will retreat back across the northern including Alaska. An Alaskan vortex also looks to form during this time making it very unlikely for a major east coast snowstorm in the first week in February. Currently looking at the MJO we are in an unfavorable phase 3 which tends to keep troughing across the northwest and not the eastern CONUS. There does seem to be a progression of the MJO pretty rapidly into 4 and 5 this first half of February which still is quite unfavorable. But by the time mid February works around we could be looking at maybe phase 6 or 7 as indicated by the GFS operational and GFS ensembles. Latest ENSO reports show some warming across the equatorial Pacific and it appears the strongest of the La Nina is over, which is optimistic. Teleconnections remain unfavorable for any extended cold air during the first two weeks of February, but snow cover may help to keep the temperatures more moderate than mild. One thing to note is that the models have shown this warm air progged quite often in this time frame and never come to fruitation. But it does appear this time that we are headed for a more mild spell with less frequent snows. In all honesty I am sure the general public won't mind that forecast. Heading towards mid February it does appear things head a bit more colder and snowier with time.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (February)
Well January finishes on quite a cold note continuing the trend for my winter outlook of below normal temperatures. I am very pleased with my forecast for January of below normal temperatures and normal snowfall. All climate reporting locations in Pennsylvania have reported a below normal mean generally in the (-2)-(-5). Snowfall for the month came in below normal for southern and eastern areas thanks to some mixing. But other than Philadelphia anomalies for snowfall were not really too far off typical means. Lake effect snow belts reported above normal snowfall for January along with northern Pennsylvania which saw well above normal snowfall. Overall January went relatively according to plan. February's forecast does not look quite so easy to forecast. February is the last month for my winter forecast that consisted of December, January, and February and the month looked to be volatile in terms of pattern. Looking at teleconnections the CPC NAO index does report a negative reading for the first half of the month. But looking at heights up towards Iceland it seems that this will be an east based negative NAO which does not really help winter storms for the eastern CONUS. When the models were progging our inland superstorm the low bombed out to near 950mb across northern Canada and changing the overall pattern. Large systems like that generally are pattern changers. So when this 950mb low headed north it shifted the negative NAO to a more favorable west based negative NAO. This no longer seems to be the case. Looking at the PNA it is headed negative giving way to an unfavorable negative state making the Pacific a thorn in our side to try to get any winter storms. The only positive thing I can find in the teleconnections is the highly negative AO progged by mid month. But with a lack of cold air across the northern Hemisphere this may be difficult to occur. The MJO looks to be in unfavorable phases during this month for eastern troughing. It also appears again we have an active northern jet stream which will favor southwest flow events, overrunning systems. This leads me to believe a lower confidence than normal monthly outlook.

Temperature- I am going to take a risk and go against what has been the case this entire winter. I am forecasting normal to above normal temperatures. Above normal temperatures should range from (+2)-(+4). Areas at most risk for above normal temperatures will be south of I-80 as a weak trough may hang up over New England keeping those areas cooler including northern Pennsylvania. The first half of the month definitely looks to be more mild than towards mid month when potentially colder air works in.

Precipitation- Precipitation wise I am going with normal precipitation with normal to below normal snowfall. The northern jet should be active, but with lacking surface features and teleconnections it should be harder to get all snow events. This does not mean a large snowstorm is not possible because towards the 10-12 there have been some indications of potentially a snowstorm. Also with the lakes just above frozen over, this will limit lake effect snow. In any case February is typically the snowiest month for Pennsylvania, so I guess we will see what happens this month.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Winter 2008-2009 forecast... Link.
-Winter 2008-2009 forecast update... Link.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2008-2009 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- .75inches of snow
Monthly Total- 2.85inches
Seasonal Total- 21.30inches
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 1
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 4

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 14degrees
Lowest Low Temperature- -3degrees
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Snow - October 29 - Trace
First Snow on Ground - November 18 - Coating
Lake Effect Snow - November 21/22 - 6.00inches
Synoptic Snow - December 16 - 3.50inches
Clipper - January 17-19 - 1.50inches
Synoptic Snow - January 27/28 - 4.00inches
Lake Effect Snow - 2.00inches

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 604 - 554

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

604. Snowlover2010
4:50 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
Hey Bliz, any thoughts about this little storm this weekend.(I am guessing this week will be all rain)
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
603. Zachary Labe
4:42 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
HeavySnow- Probably, you would be fighting some southeasterly winds, but I think it would generally be a wet snow under 34degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
602. HeavySnow
4:38 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
Is the snow line far enough south for me on that 12z GFS?
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
601. Zachary Labe
4:32 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
pittsburghnurse- I was out in Pittsburgh yesterday and ran into some squalls that dropped a coating near Monroeville. More snow is coming this week out there. See my new blog in about 30minutes for more details.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
600. pittsburghnurse
4:25 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
It snowed last night on my way home from the second shift. Laid just enough wet snow on the roads to make them slick. If I didn't see another flake this winter, I would be very very grateful.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
599. Zachary Labe
4:19 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
Well just so the snowlovers have something to look at... Here is the 12z GFS for next weekend...

Take it with a grain of salt.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
598. HeavySnow
4:13 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
No Spring yet. I want some dang SNOW! A wet March snow will do. Come on, don't give up yet.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
597. Zachary Labe
2:22 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
HeavySnow- Ugh, I know. Personally I am ready for an early Spring.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
596. HeavySnow
2:01 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
It's definitely not looking good anymore. Another wasted winter. Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
595. Zachary Labe
1:56 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
SilverShipsofAndilar- Being only the 16th of February, it can't be called over especially when looking in shaded areas I have snow on the ground from yesterday. But snow cover chances dwindle as the sun becomes higher up that we can say for sure.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
594. SilverShipsofAndilar
1:21 PM GMT on February 16, 2009
Can we call it yet? Is winter officially over early? Are our chances for snow dwindling? Feels like it.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
593. Zachary Labe
3:18 AM GMT on February 16, 2009
I was out in Pittsburgh today and ran into some lake effect orographic snow in the Laurel Highlands. Mountains all looked like a good fresh doce of snow after nearly 24inches melted from heatwave. I would guess nearly 3inches on northern facing ridges.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
592. Snowlover2010
9:44 PM GMT on February 15, 2009
This now from NWS:
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 40.
This compared to this morning being mostly rain with little to no snow acc on backside.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
591. Snowlover2010
6:38 PM GMT on February 15, 2009
Thought this was interesting. It is my forecast for today in Lancaster.

This Afternoon...Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Wind chill values as low as 80 below.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
590. Zachary Labe
2:33 AM GMT on February 15, 2009
upweatherdog- Physics has loose connections with meteorology with kinetic energy and such, but I would not say it has a direct connection.

TheRasberryPatch- It was a nice Valentine's day little snow. Looks nice outside tonight. It should be gone in an hour or two tomorrow morning though.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
589. TheRasberryPatch
2:23 AM GMT on February 15, 2009
Blizz - i think the grass is covered because the flakes were good size.
it is amazing seeing the dendrites outside now.

upweatherdog- as for the laws of physics that may have not been discovered as of yet - which ones would they be that you are speaking? when it comes to weather i don't think physics has much to do with it. i could be wrong. i don't thing physicists have gotten into weather when looking into quantum mechanics or string theory or laws of motion. i don't recall physical geography having much to do with physics. like i said i have been out of the loop and could be wrong
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6273
588. upweatherdog
2:03 AM GMT on February 15, 2009
Humans program computer models to the laws of physics. However, some laws may not yet have been discovered, and some may have been programed wrong. There is still much to learn about the atmosphere.

Speaking of coumpter data, lastes AO and NAO data is trending more possitive later in Feb. PNA is still negative. GFS model data supports this and shows more of a Great Lakes storm track in late Feb. MJO is in phase 7 though.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
587. Zachary Labe
1:44 AM GMT on February 15, 2009
Officially .75inches of snow here. Snowflakes interestingly enough were half melted dendrites.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
586. Zachary Labe
12:39 AM GMT on February 15, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Not sure how much I have yet. I will measure after the last little snow shower moves through. This snow was not forecasted to accumulate though. They only metioned coatings or none for our area.

TheDawnAwakening- I think the old saying holds true. Computers are built by humans. Humans make mistakes and errors. Computers will therefore make mistakes and errors.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
585. TheRasberryPatch
12:28 AM GMT on February 15, 2009
TDW - i can tell you the snow was predicted on and off all week. this morning they were predicting a 50% chance of snow this day.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6273
584. TheDawnAwakening
12:16 AM GMT on February 15, 2009
I meant to say that computer models aren't always right.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
583. TheDawnAwakening
12:14 AM GMT on February 15, 2009
Blizzard was that snow forecasted for your area?

Also with regards to the ENSO computer forecasts, I am not saying that we don't have to use computers, but we will never be able to accurately forecast the weather, I mean we can get closer, but there is always that element of human error we can never get past. So while I'm saying that computers are always right, I'm also saying I guess we have no other choice.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
582. TheRasberryPatch
12:11 AM GMT on February 15, 2009
been getting snow for almost 2 hours. temps fell pretty fast once the intensity picked up. temp is 33F with moderate snow. about an inch on the grass. you can't see any grass.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6273
581. Zachary Labe
11:31 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
Heavy snow here with .25mile vis. Harrisburg metro city area looks to be getting extremely heavy snow probably 1.5inch per hour rates. Orange dbz according to WGAl radar over them.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
580. Zachary Labe
11:23 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
PalmyraPunishment- Well you are missing snow here in the Harrisburg area too, lol. Figures, but at least it is snowing out there. Very heavy snow across region. .25inches of snow maybe here on estimate.

TheDawnAwakening- There really isn't much of a way to predict ENSO patterns on a long term distance scale without advanced technology. Short term updates on temperature anomalies only prove so helpful.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
579. TheDawnAwakening
10:29 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
Blizzard, I am not saying I didn't know that, what I am saying is that the ENSO has such a large effect on the weather for the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, that the models can't accurately portray everything so how do we forecast without the computer models? Do we even rely on whats happening now and take past history into account to see how this certain pattern we are in now is going to end up? I mean forecasters use climatology, but to what extent? Also I think we have become too computer relient as well. I am not saying we haven't made huge strides technology wise, but to say one is certain with this type of pattern change is quite difficult.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
578. PalmyraPunishment
10:25 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
good afternoon, everybody.

spending the weekend in beautiful Huntingdon, Pennsylvania. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for this part of the state for this evening for the possibility of 1-2, maybe 3-4 inches of snow.

Currently it is snowing quite heavily. It seriously looks like a snow globe out there. The ground is being coated as I speak, and the temperature is hovering around 30. I will give you another report later on!

btw, Today... is "Hate Day"!. Take the time out of your busy day and punch somebody you can't stand straight in the face. lol.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
577. Zachary Labe
10:24 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- A series of advanced mathematical equations concerning present state of global weather patterns and current ocean status filter into the large supercomputers. It is how we forecast any weather pattern short term or long term. Or even yearly anomalies such as global warming predictions. It is all based on calculus.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
576. TheDawnAwakening
10:20 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
How can we forecast a transition to El Nino? What exactly goes into the computer models to have them forecast it? Its such a large phenomenon that if it is wrongfully forecasted that could have significant effects.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
575. Zachary Labe
10:16 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
Coating of snow only on grass. The intensity of the snow overcame the temperature.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
574. Zachary Labe
10:07 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- 36degrees here. Fell three degrees in last 20minutes. Snowing really good here. Radar echos are quite impressive.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
573. TheRasberryPatch
10:04 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
snow showers here with temps in upper 30's.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6273
572. Zachary Labe
10:03 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
Here north of Harrisburg...

Moderate snow
.5mile vis.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
571. Zachary Labe
9:58 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- We are already in a La Nina regime/pattern. Some may even consider it being moderate considering the SST anomalies. The hadley cell did cause waters to cool once again after some warmer anomalies showed up about a week or two ago. I do expect Nina conditions to prevail through the end of winter. Then potentially a transition to Nino. Global models predict a pretty impressive switch to El Nino and I am not biting it fully yet. Here are the current equitorial anomalies...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
570. TheDawnAwakening
9:53 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
Hi Blizzard. It looks like a weak La Nina is returning out of a moderate ENSO pattern where there was a neutral phase. An EL Nino would favor a severe weather season in the south, but since a weak La Nina is returning with the SSTs becoming cooler in time severe weather will be migrating further northward in time and possibly favoring the central Plains in the next month or two. Am I correct in assuming this?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
569. Zachary Labe
9:38 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
Light snow here just north of Harrisburg.


dragonflyF15- Happy Valentine's Day to you too. Thanks for stopping by!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
568. dragonflyF15
8:00 PM GMT on February 14, 2009

Happy Valentine's Day Comment Graphics
Member Since: February 13, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 2153
567. Zachary Labe
7:41 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
Quick little long term update this afternoon. By the way new blog out Monday afternoon. Anyways so far my monthly outlook for February is holding strong with above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. Now that we are approaching mid month it still does not appear we enter a favorable snow pattern. Cold air looks marginal and I see signs of southeast ridge returning. Snowfall chances look limited. MJO still in unfavorable phases 5 and 6 along with unfavorable GWO. Nina looks to have large affect on next few weeks with ridge in west. Overall pattern looks relatively calm with marginal cold air and dry conditions. If a snowstorm is going to occur I think the best chances look to be around next weekend into early of that week.

seflagamma- Thanks for the greeting! Same to you. Have a wonderful day.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
566. seflagamma
7:39 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
Hi Bliz,

Hope you are enjoying your weekend!

Valentine's Day
Valentine's Day - Graphics for Myspace, Hi5, Friendster
Comments for Myspace, Hi5, Friendster : CoolMyspaceComments.com
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 301 Comments: 40945
565. Zachary Labe
4:35 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- It is a nice day now. Still in upper 30s here. Some clouds will be moving in along with maybe some light snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
564. TheRasberryPatch
4:30 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
nothing but a beautiful day right now. temp in low 40's.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6273
563. Zachary Labe
3:28 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
Light snow here and 34degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
562. Zachary Labe
2:56 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
shoreacres- Good morning! Thanks, same to you!


*Some light snow across the region this morning. I am a bit surprised in how widespread the snow showers are and I am surprised with the winter weather advisories.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
561. shoreacres
1:17 PM GMT on February 14, 2009
We interrupt this on-going weather discussio for - Valentine Greetings! Enjoy the weekend!

Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
560. Zachary Labe
8:10 PM GMT on February 13, 2009
PalmyraPunishment- I have to agree with you. Usually I am always excited for snow every day, but this past week I have no longing for snow whatsoever. As much as I love a snowstorm, one thing for sure we can count on every year is thunderstorms. I did see some snow flurries here today which was nice.

I hope everyone sticks around through the summer during severe weather season. It has been a lot of fun this winter having a larger viewing and commenting population. Below I posted a copy of a comment I posted yesterday in sullivanweather's blog. I stick by it. The latest trends though seem to indicate this low being weaker and farther inland.

I am not feeling it next week. West coast ridge is looking miserable and a trend in the weakening 50/50 low by both the EURO and GFS is not promising. Confluence nil on some of the latest runs. Now that being said there are some major phasing issues with 12z EURO and the nutsy 975mb low, but the trend has been to weaken the 50/50 low. Without that the position of the troughing suggests Ohio Valley. Our hope is to get something in Canada and we get a miller B out of this.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15133
559. PalmyraPunishment
2:55 PM GMT on February 13, 2009
hmm... the conflict has finally arrived.

i stood outside for a few minutes wednesday night watching the wind and trying to see if i could spot any lightning from the "storms", and the wind coming from the south felt so amazingly warm and inviting. reminded me of an early to mid spring's evening where you knew eventually it was going to storm and plummet, and be cold in the morning -- but that by the time afternoon rolled around, all would be wonderful.

i can't help but say that kinda took some winter enthusiasm away from me.

in regards to the storm for next week. I'm assuming you're referencing the 18th - 20th, snowlover? something tells me that it's going to be another case of the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer...

this is my speculation without any guidance whatsoever... soooo... take it with a grain of salt lol.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
558. Snowlover2010
2:21 PM GMT on February 13, 2009
how is that storm lookng next week?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
557. SilverShipsofAndilar
1:33 PM GMT on February 13, 2009
Let's talk about snow.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
556. TheRasberryPatch
12:36 PM GMT on February 13, 2009
upweather - what you describe sounds very much like the poles they have out for purple martin complexes. they make poles like that where you can lower them down. a very interesting idea for weather instruments
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6273
555. Mason803
3:50 AM GMT on February 13, 2009
yeah it was fun. good night
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
554. TheRasberryPatch
3:48 AM GMT on February 13, 2009
Great discussion this evening. Have a good night.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6273

Viewing: 604 - 554

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

About Personal Weather Stations