Another Major Winter Storm...

By: Zachary Labe , 3:24 PM GMT on January 25, 2009

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Thoughts on January 27-29 storm...
A multi-wave, extended, winter storm event is headed across much of the country dumping heavy snow and severe ice in its path. An overrunning disturbance across the Missouri Valley and Ohio Valley will head eastward overnight Monday bringing snows across the Middle Atlantic region generally south of I-80. Increasing 700mb RH values and frontogenisis will promote the development of light snows across the southern portions of Pennsylvania as the main dynamics of the system pass to the south. QPF looks generally light anywhere from .05-.15inches south of I-80. Orographic lift will aid in the highest amounts across the Laurel Highlands. H85s near -10C and ok dendritic growth will aid in some snow ratios near 15:1/20:1 creating snow totals of 1-4inches with the highest amounts south of the turnpike across the Laurel Highland mountains. Locations such as South Mountain and Blue Ridge across Franklin County may due fairly well also from this event. Better dynamics to our south will aid in a snow shield across Maryland, West Virginia, and Virginia giving snow totals of 2-4inches. QPF in this region looks to be .1-.25inches. As this system pulls to the east a growing area of precipitation over the same region will lead to the development of an upper level low will which eventually track towards the Ohio Valley by later in the day Tuesday. A large lull in the precipitation looks looks likely Tuesday afternoon.

*The second storm discussion will be posted Tuesday.

Timeline...
9:00pm-12:00am Monday....
Light snow will generally be across central and northern Pennsylvania as some very weak warm air comma advection snows occur. Snow accumulations will generally be light and most places will only see flurries. A few locations across the northern mountains above 2000ft could see an inch or two of fluffy, fresh snow. A few locations across far southeastern Pennsylvania could see a bit of cloud clearing before a mid level stratus deck works into the region.

12:00am-6:00am Tuesday...
A shortwave disturbance moves across the Middle Atlantic south of Pennsylvania. But 700mb frontogenisis will promote light to occasional moderate snow to form across southern areas of Pennsylvania in the predawn hours. Snow amounts will be generally a Coating as far north as I-80 to about a few inches across the southern border counties particularily across the Laurel Highlands where a few locations could see up to 3inches of snow on the favored upslope locations.

6:00am-10:00am Tuesday...
Light snow will continue across southern areas accumulating another C-1inch before a temporary lull in precipitation. Eastern areas will likely see less amounts due to some downsloping. Clouds will be thick across the region with MVRF ceilings as low as 2500ft. A few flurries will be found across the northern mountains. Temperatures will range in the upper teens to mid 20s across the state.

10:00am-2:00pm Tuesday...
A lull in precipitation will occur between systems as a much stronger upper level low forms across the Mississippi Valley and another weaker disturbance pulls out to sea leaving most of Pennsylvania in an area of subsidence resulting in generally cloudy skies and dreary conditions. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 20s across the state to near 30degrees near Philadelphia.


***The timeline for the second system will be issued tomorrow afternoon.

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
This is a complex storm system with rain/snow lines that gradually move north through the entire event. But the lines I have picked out in particular will be for where the boundaries are for the majority of the precipitation. All areas will see likely all types of precipitation at one point or another so keep this in mind. Although the only plain rain should be seen in the immediant metro of Philadelphia. And it is likely farthern north areas do not see freezing rain.

My rain/sleet line is... Deep Valley (Greene County) - Morgantown, WV - Deep Creek, MD - Ft. Ashby WV - Martinsburg, WV - Frederick, MD - Manchester, MD - Newark, DE - Philadelphia (Philadelphia County)

My sleet/snow line is... Mercer (Mercer County) - Du Bois (Clearfield County) - Renovo (Clinton County) - Wellsboro (Tioga County) - Towanda (Bradford County) - Starlight (Wayne County)

*Note these lines are estimates and actual locations may vary.

Storm Reports...
Alrighty well here are some of the local snow reports from the region. I tried to include everyone's report here from the blog, but if I missed yours it was only by accident. I am extremely pleased with this forecast and really going back my only difference would have been to extend the .1inch of ice a bit farther north. Also when looking at the map remember the 5-9inches is supposed to be 4-8inches. Finally an event that goes according to plan.


Storm Impacts...
1. Long duration with entirely wintry precipitation.
2. Cold ground temperatures making for plowable snow.
3. Heavy snow across north totaling up to 8inches.
4. Large area of damaging ice in South Central Mountains.
5. Statewide impact with at least one or more inches of snow.

Snow Map...

*Note for the snow map. The 5-9inch region is actually 4-8inches for this event. I didn't accurately change the key to 4-8inches.

Ice Map...

*Note that totals such as .25inches are maximum. So for example if you are in the .25 range, then you have the possibility to receive between .1 and .25inches of freezing rain. The map is also highly elevation specific therefore the reasoning for the non uniform lines.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- 2-4inches of snow with .3inches of ice.
Baltimore, MD- 2-3inches of snow with .2inches of ice.
Washington, DC- 1-3inches of snow with .2inches of ice.
Wilmington, DE- 1-3inches of snow with .1inches of ice.
Dover, DE- 1inch of snow with an icy glaze.
Cape May, NJ- 1inch of snow, .5inches of rain.
Trenton, NJ- 3-5inches of snow, 1inch of sleet, .2inches of ice.
New York City, NY- 3-6inches of snow, 1-2inches of sleet.
Poughkeepsie, NY- 4-8inches of snow with 1-3inches of sleet.
Binghamton, NY- 5-9inches of snow, trace of sleet.
Albany, NY- 5-9inches of snow.
Hartford, CT- 3-7inches of snow, 1inch of sleet, .1inch of ice.
Concord, NH- 6-12inches of snow.
Providence, RI- 3-5inches of snow, .2inches of ice.
Worcester, MA- 4-7inches of snow, .1inch of ice.
Boston, MA- 3-7inches of snow, .1inch of ice.
Nantucket, MA- 1-3inches of snow, .75inches of rain.
Hyannis, MA- 1-4inches of snow, .5inches of rain.
Portland, ME- 6-12inches of snow, trace of sleet.
Bangor, ME- 7-14inches of snow.
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
So it is the battle of the computer models with the GFS/SREF/GEFS taking the colder route with this system while the EURO/NAM take a warmer route with a more pronounced northern low. My blend looks to be GFS/EURO/NAM. The NAM takes a relatively nice conservative route between the EURO and GFS. This model analysis will take a look at the variables in this event to explain my reasoning. The first wave is part with a warm air advection snow. This will take H85s from nearly -14C up to near -3C by Tuesday night. Warm air advection will likely not result in warmer surface temperatures. The 18z GFS shows the primary area of warm air advection snows looking at the 700mb RH chart...

Note the best forcing is to our south across the Middle Atlantic. But with temperatures aloft near -10C along with some decent Omega and dendritic growth southern areas should be able to squeeze out some snow. Orographic lift will aid in snow development and QPF likely totaling near .1inches south of I-80 and up to .15inches across the Laurel Highlands. Snow ratios should be near 20:1 making for widespread 1-3inches of snow possibly 4inches Somerset County overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. A lull in the precipitation develops as the low gathers to our southeast. Trough from over the Rockies comes in positively tilted and scoots the New England high out sea along with destorying some confluence over southern Canada. 18z NAM notes the jet streak being north of the region creating a lack in snow development as the next wave moves in...

The 850 vortex low generally travels up through Ohio and up through New York State generally supporting the idea of mixing for most locations up through the NY/PA state border. Generally the heaviest snows occur 50-90miles north of the vortices. Here is the placement of the 850 low as the front end precipitation moves into the region as illustrated by the 12z HIRES NMM...

Note the 850 tries to become cutoff, but is not quite able which is good as it limits the warm air aloft advection. The surface low pressure moves across northern Maryland and through the Delmarva. This generally keeps 2m temperatures below freezing. With remnants of the high to the north cold air damming does result for many locations including the Laurel Highlands. As the low moves due south of central Pennsylvania H85s will rise above freezing for the southern half of the state resulting in freezing rain. The best frontogenisis locates itself across northern Pennsylvania as evident by the HIRES WRF 700mb...

As the low moves east and a weak undefined secondary low forms, cold air should move back into the system making for some snows to end the system. Even -10C 850s will make their way into western Pennsylvania. Snow accumulations will remain light but be noticeable. 18z NAM indicates the cold air rushing in quickly...

So that is my general model diagnostic. I usually end up using the high resolution models in short term periods. Foreign models other than the EURO prove to be relatively useless. I do think the EURO is a tad to strong with the wrapping of the low and too warm in thermal layer. But if the EURO does prove true then some forecasts may need to be rewired. Total QPF for this event looks to be 1-1.5inches statewide.

After the storm...
The long term period is looking high volite with patterns and it seems to be difficult to find which pattern will dominate. La Nina continues to being going full swing across equitorial Pacific, but there are signs of some warming anomalies, and from past experience it always seems that ENSO patterns peak during the winter months. The Pacific has definitely ruled this winter with a low negative PDO and I do not see any signs of that changing. The PNA is also heading negative with signs of troughing across the west, but not near as deep as was the case in December with the record cold. During the same time the NAO is heading negative which should help balance out the east coast from getting too mild, but the overall pattern does look warmer than it has been. It seems to me that the beginning of February should start warmer than normal with positive anomalies near 3-5, but colder air should work in as the AO heads negative correlating to eastern colder conditions. The MJO looks to be heading into phases 2 and 3, but impacts will not be too great as the pattern is very progressive with the wave movements. There are also some signs of Greeland blocking forming, but at this point I would not expect any development in the next week or two. Generally guidance supports of warmer than normal pattern especially from Pennsylvania southward with a more active northern jet which should generate wintry mixes. The pattern in my eyes looks identical to the one with went through around mid December so yep that means ice will be more of a threat. Now it does seem cold air will eventually try to work its way in down the road, but overall the coldest air of the winter is likely over. And there are no signs screaming snow, so basically the same pattern of the winter continues.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2008-2009 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 3.5inches of snow/sleet
Monthly Total- 8.00inches
Seasonal Total- 18.45inches
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 1
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 4

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 14degrees
Lowest Low Temperature- -3degrees
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Snow - October 29 - Trace
First Snow on Ground - November 18 - Coating
Lake Effect Snow - November 21/22 - 6.00inches
Synoptic Snow - December 16 - 3.50inches
Clipper - January 17-19 - 1.50inches
Synoptic Snow - January 27/28 - 4.00inches

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727. Snowlover2010
2:15 AM GMT on February 01, 2009
Bliz there is a high in NY on the NAM!!!!
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
726. Snowlover2010
2:06 AM GMT on February 01, 2009
well bliz NAM will bring the storm west and stronger, i just hope it does not give me rain though. either way i am fine because i am glad it is no longer out to sea on the NAM
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
725. Snowlover2010
1:56 AM GMT on February 01, 2009
well Bliz I guess all hope is not lost as the 00z NAM is already much further NW.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
724. Zachary Labe
12:36 AM GMT on February 01, 2009
SilverShipsofAndilar- Yea I know, it would be nice. I am sure in the next 5 years there will be something of large significance. This pattern cannot last forever since 02-03.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
723. SilverShipsofAndilar
12:30 AM GMT on February 01, 2009
True, but I'm talking burdening snow. Memorable snow. Snow I will tell my kids about. Snow that when you look outside you say, "Man, I've seen a lot of snow, but that's a lot of freakin' snow."
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
722. Zachary Labe
12:24 AM GMT on February 01, 2009
SilverShipsofAndilar- We really can't complain though, the snow has been falling and it is currently on the ground and was enough for a plowable snow. This winter is much better than the past few.

hurigo- I heard Raleigh picked up nearly 7inches in the suburbs.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
721. hurigo
12:19 AM GMT on February 01, 2009
Blizz, there's nothing like a personal experience to define a word. I now really get what virga means!

I'm like Silver Ships--I really would like some snow. What concerns me is that this "Tuesday Storm" might be more of a very rough Noyster for us. Those strong NE winds are quite frightening and we haven't gotten the roofs fixed yet.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
720. SilverShipsofAndilar
12:13 AM GMT on February 01, 2009
I know I've said this with every storm so far this winter, but I really want some significant snow.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
719. Zachary Labe
12:10 AM GMT on February 01, 2009
Quoting hurigo:
Blizz, all we had was the "threat" of snow. Schools decided to close the night before. We woke up and no snow. Then all the reports continued to say that it was coming, get ready for up to six inches. Radar even showed that we were covered. Reporters flying around even showed that it was snowing higher up in the atmosphere. Hubby drove around looking for it. All we had were some occasional flurries. Snow on the ground stayed mostly south of the Albemarle Sound. It was funny watching the news with reporters talking about all the snow fun and all they could get on camera was a little cluster of flakes on top of sand.

I guess you got the dreaded virga.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
718. hurigo
11:55 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Blizz, all we had was the "threat" of snow. Schools decided to close the night before. We woke up and no snow. Then all the reports continued to say that it was coming, get ready for up to six inches. Radar even showed that we were covered. Reporters flying around even showed that it was snowing higher up in the atmosphere. Hubby drove around looking for it. All we had were some occasional flurries. Snow on the ground stayed mostly south of the Albemarle Sound. It was funny watching the news with reporters talking about all the snow fun and all they could get on camera was a little cluster of flakes on top of sand.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
717. Zachary Labe
11:32 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
hurigo- I will be sure to do that! So how did the snow treat you down there a few weeks ago?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
716. hurigo
11:22 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Hey Blizz,
What's this we are hearing about a Tuesday storm? I see you are going to put up a new blog tonight or tomorrow. Please don't forget to include good information for me, your southern neighbor. I'll have to waddle through the technical stuff and graphics, so a little sentence about the boundaries would be helpful to me.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
715. Zachary Labe
9:30 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Thanks for the comments all!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
714. Stormfront
8:08 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Blizzard is good. he's a little more "careful" with his forecasts, then some people we know! I still can't get over Henry and his "Big Daddy" hat. What a smuck!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
713. wxgeek723
8:01 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Quoting Stormfront:
wxgeek723- Hey neighbor! Right over here in Wenonah!


Haha really? I know exactly where that is. I have a friend that just moved here from Mullica Hill, not far from Wenonah. I live up in Mt. Ephraim, it's just outside Gloucester City and not far from the county line.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
712. BostonDan
7:58 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Quoting Stormfront:
That's what I'm talking about! I've followed your forcasts Blizz, and there are plenty of times where you out forcasted them. In the past few years their forcasts have become less accurate. Accu-weather? How about unaccu-weather!


Agreed. The last event you pretty much nailed my area. I was a little disappointed with your prediction of 3-7 with a little ice and then rain, especially when a lot of my locals and crappuweather were still predicting 4-8 and 6-12 at the time. However, yours was the one that panned out.
Member Since: February 10, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 431
711. Stormfront
7:39 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
wxgeek723- Hey neighbor! Right over here in Wenonah!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
710. Stormfront
7:37 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Storm will hold up in the gulf, impulse will drop out of Canada, with the intended cold front, give the storm a track to follow up the coast and that's my prediction! Some folks get snow, coast get's rain and we'll know the snowfall amounts after the storm ends!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
709. Zachary Labe
7:34 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Quoting Stormfront:
My money is on the hog! Sorry for the mis-spells on the last entry. I was rushing!

Hahaha, that reminds me that Accuweather said that the groundhog would not be able to appear out of its hole because there would be so much drifting snow out that way from the 09 superstorm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
708. Stormfront
7:32 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
My money is on the hog! Sorry for the mis-spells on the last entry. I was rushing!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
707. Zachary Labe
7:32 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Quoting Stormfront:
That's what I'm talking about! I've followed your forcasts Blizz, and there are plenty of times where you out forcasted them. In the past few years their forcasts have become less accurate. Accu-weather? How about unaccu-weather!

Thanks!



***New blog coming out either tonight and tomorrow morning detailing forecasts for all of next week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
706. Stormfront
7:30 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
On the lighter side of this subjuct, I'm beginning to wonder if the bread companies and dairys don't have their hand in this forcasting stuff. They pay the forcasters comissions to hype small storms into big storms so to have bread and milk sales skyrocket...The panic conspiracy!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
705. Stormfront
7:25 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
That's what I'm talking about! I've followed your forcasts Blizz, and there are plenty of times where you out forcasted them. In the past few years their forcasts have become less accurate. Accu-weather? How about unaccu-weather!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
704. wxgeek723
7:23 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Definitely. I mean in some cases you can tell what kind of weather you could have just by examining clouds. No wonder the Farmer's Almanac does so well. Nature's a much better forecaster than we are. Besides, Groundhog Day is Monday!
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
703. Zachary Labe
7:19 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Stormfront- I 100% agree. This age of using computer models completely for forecasting is bogus. Where are the old fashioned techniques such as drawing and analyzing surface maps?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
702. Stormfront
7:17 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
2 days ago forcasters were talking about a CRIPPLING, PARALIZING, DANGEROUS storm. That's what I mean by getting the old folks all riled up. I went to the store to get a newspaper and was almost trampled to death by the rush of seniors for milk and bread!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
701. Stormfront
7:13 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Wxgeek- I agree with you that forcasting is not easy. But I am 55 years old and I know for a fact that when I was in my teens and knew I had an interrest in weather, the weather forcasters were a lot more accurate then, than they are today! Too much technology, and not enough going outside and looking at the clouds! Bottom line, If your not certain, don't get people all riled up!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
700. Zachary Labe
7:05 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Quoting wxgeek723:


It's a shame how meteorologists get that infamous reputation for being incorrect. Like that winter storm two weeks ago. One of the local stations predicted 5 inches of snow; we only got a coating (seems that's all they get). That weekened I was at a little get together watching the last Eagles game, and A commercial came up: "John Bolaris, keeping you ahead of the storm". Everyone started complaining and I said "Hey it's not easy! Let's see you do it".

I have no issue with someone getting a wrong forecast, happens to everyone. But when they don't try to quickly explain what went wrong with their forecast, or try to cover up their forecast by making false lies it gets many people angry. For example the locals here were calling for a coating of snow over Martin Luther King weekend. But over the course of the weekend we picked up 2inches of snow and some spots saw up to 4inches. Yet the locals trying to hide their forecasts said that "yes a few locations saw a dusting and coating of snow." If only they would look at their window. The impression I get from the general public is all they want is an honest, quick reason to what went wrong with a forecast.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
699. wxgeek723
7:01 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Quoting Stormfront:
That's what I would do Bliz. It's time that these guys are to be made accountable for their forcasts. All they do is get people all up in a panic mode, especially the old folks, and then make excuses for their mistakes. Weather forcasting has become one unrealible science. If I made as many mistakes as these guys, I wouldn't have a job!


It's a shame how meteorologists get that infamous reputation for being incorrect. Like that winter storm two weeks ago. One of the local stations predicted 5 inches of snow; we only got a coating (seems that's all they get). That weekened I was at a little get together watching the last Eagles game, and A commercial came up: "John Bolaris, keeping you ahead of the storm". Everyone started complaining and I said "Hey it's not easy! Let's see you do it".
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
698. Zachary Labe
6:56 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Stormfront- Comparing this system to the storm of the century was completely irresponsible. I was shocked when they issued that statement comparing the two.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
697. Stormfront
6:52 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
That's what I would do Bliz. It's time that these guys are to be made accountable for their forcasts. All they do is get people all up in a panic mode, especially the old folks, and then make excuses for their mistakes. Weather forcasting has become one unrealible science. If I made as many mistakes as these guys, I wouldn't have a job!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
696. Zachary Labe
6:50 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
wxgeek723- Good afternoon. Similar situation here. We picked up 4inches of snow then some sleet and freezing rain making for this concrete of snow/ice on the ground. I have yet to see hardly any melting so far, it is just to hard and nearly impossible to walk on.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
695. wxgeek723
6:48 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Hey Bliz! Seems to be constantly melting and refreezing. I was slipping and sliding all over the ice. I feel like such a clutz, and my leg hurts from it, LOL. A brisk 29F here in Mt. Ephraim, NJ...
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
694. Zachary Labe
6:42 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Stormfront- Well that ashame. He is pretty bad. He was blaming the poor modeling on the volcano, ha. I think next time I have a forecast bust, I am going to blame it on a volcano, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
693. Stormfront
6:34 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Stormfront- Hey, long time since you have stopped by. How is winter treating you there?
Hey Blizzard, How you doing? We have had a terrible winter so far. The storm last week gave us the most snow so far this year and that was about an inch and a half. I've been reading your blogs, just haven't commented. I am with you 100% on the modeling. I have been throwing comments at Henry"s blog on Accu-weather, but whenever he screws up a forecast, he won't let your comment be posted. He is one of the worse forecasters of them all! Big Daddy Snowstorm...Hah! They really need to throw the models out and get back to forcasting the weather the old fashoned way!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
692. Zachary Labe
5:51 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
12z UKMET and CMC very far east.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
691. Zachary Labe
5:14 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
lawntonlookers- The band stretched from south of Lewistown southeast towards Marysville in Perry County then southeast towards Dauphin the southeast and stopped at Blue Mountain. It appeared like western Clarks, Fishing Creek, and Stony Valleys really got hit hard with likely the northern part of the band near Peters Mountain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
690. lawntonlookers
5:10 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
The squall you had last night must have stayed up your way Blizz. Not much new snow down here. After the one heavy snow around 3:30 yesterday afternoon not much else came through. Sounds good that the storm on Monday and Tuesday will be further to the east and not give us much of a problem. I will check in on Sunday and see what is going on. Time to go and watch some basketball. Have a good day.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
689. Zachary Labe
4:54 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
12z GEFS came in a bit farther west than the operational which is a great sign. Almost always the ensembles are east of the operational as it is their bias. But to see them west usually indicates that there should be a western shift in the operational; not always, but about 75% of the time.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
688. Finky
4:52 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Bliz,

I think Accuweather has updated their map.
Member Since: November 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
687. Snowlover2010
4:38 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Hey Bliz NWS new update for me is:
Mon-Light acc
Mon Night-Mod Acc
Tues-Light acc
So I guess according to them I am still in a good place to get some snow.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
686. Zachary Labe
4:29 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
buzzone- Their maps have not been updated, but none the less at that time when they made their forecast the precipitation sheild would have been quite large. Warmer air would have been along the surface low track and to the east of the low putting areas east of the Wilkes-Barre, Reading line in the rain zone with snow back over the Appalachians.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
685. buzzone
4:26 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Question? If the low moves up the east coast say I95 corridor, then why is Accuweather calling for major snow in Pittsburgh and Buffalo due to this low. They are showing the low moving up the coast on there map and then west of that a huge snowbelt running up thru Ohio Valley.
684. Snowlover2010
4:22 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
NWS seems to think the storm will shift west Philly NWS just updated and says that MON Night Berks will see snow showers with .5-.75in of precip, and tuesday they say it will snow there. So from what I can see National Weather Service is still going with a further west track.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
683. Zachary Labe
4:13 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Stormfront- Hey, long time since you have stopped by. How is winter treating you there?

Snowlover2010- I guess we will see.

WeatherBobNut- If this doesn't shift west, it will be the first system not to trend west in the last 48hours this winter.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
682. WeatherBobNut
4:06 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Boy, what is going on? Don't give up on the storm just yet, i do feel an explosive low will race up the coast giving Harrisburg up through the Catskills points northeast a good 8-12 inch swath of snow out of this, i've seen this set-up many times in the past. Models are shifting too far east becasue of data error. Things will come together, i'm pretty darn sure of it, i wouldn't say it to ruin my rep here, hang in there guys!

-Weather Bob
681. Snowlover2010
4:06 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
12z GFS is out and with an eastern solution. Looks like we can close the books on what was the worst modeling of a system I have ever seen in a three day span. The accuracy of a 3-day forecast is no higher than the accuracy of a 10-day forecast. I think in this age of modern technology the meteorological models should be a bit better than they currently are. Even the almighty EURO had horrible swings larger than that even of the GFS.


Bliz I do not think we can give up hope yet. Last week we had a storm that 36hrs out looked like it would give us some nice snows. Well unlike what we thought it went way northwest. I remember me telling you GFS gives me 20in. At this point we are still over 48hrs out. I think later today we will see the west trend begin. Right now is not time to give up.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
680. Stormfront
3:54 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
No Phase! No Big Daddy! Might not even develope a low! Only thing I see out of this so far is "HYPE"!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
679. Zachary Labe
3:52 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
12z GFS is out and with an eastern solution. Looks like we can close the books on what was the worst modeling of a system I have ever seen in a three day span. The accuracy of a 3-day forecast is no higher than the accuracy of a 10-day forecast. I think in this age of modern technology the meteorological models should be a bit better than they currently are. Even the almighty EURO had horrible swings larger than that even of the GFS.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
678. Zachary Labe
3:08 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
seflagamma- Thanks. 19degrees with a bit of fresh snow this morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
677. seflagamma
3:06 PM GMT on January 31, 2009
Oh my goodness you are so cold again!

But I hope you are keeping warm and having a wonderful weekend!


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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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