The Middle Atlantic Winter...

By: Zachary Labe , 12:25 AM GMT on January 18, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

The Middle Atlantic Winter...

(December 21 Ice Storm - Blue Mountain, PA)

Introduction to Typical Middle Atlantic Winters...
For quite a few years the Middle Atlantic has been suffering from under a snow drought. While many are quick to answer this snow drought with a few little words such as climate change, it is not quite that easy to characterize this reasoning. Many global features and synoptic patterns have been favoring an unusual and extended jet stream formation that has characterized areas farther north to see above normal snowfall with sharp gradients located across Pennsylvania between snow and no snow. While there is no easy answer to the snow drought, this blog will examine the reasoning behind much of this pattern along with examining past climatological means (finding relationships), and examining case studies of past major east coast snowstorms to show the variables necessary for these major events. This is my 100th blog special edition and I hope you enjoy...

Middle Atlantic snow seasons are characterized by long periods of snow droughts followed by large anomaly years, which tend to make up for all of the snow droughts. Therefore much of the region has snow averages that are much higher than they should be for typical winters. Exclude memorable winters such as 1993-1994, 1995-1996, and 2002-2003 and you are left with snowfall means nearly 10inches less than current historical seasonal averages. Take this graph for example for snowfall seasons from 1984-2008 for State College, PA...

(Courtesy of NOAA)
A majority of the seasons fall below climatoligical means with only a few near seasonal norms and only a handful of large anomalies. With most human minds programmed to recall only the large anomalies, therefore people are disappointed when those large anomalies do not come to fruitation. Here are a few Philadelphia winter seasons. Keep in mind they average 20inches per season. This is a random chosen decade from 1949-1959...

49/50- 1.9inches
50/51- 4.6inches
51/52- 16.2inches
52/53- 16.8inches
53/54- 22.6inches
54/55- 12.1inches
55/56- 23.0inches
56/57- 7.9inches
57/58- 41.8inches
58/59- 5.1inches

The years that fall below the seasonal mean have been bolded. Note that most seasons fall well below the average, but only a few are near average with one large anomaly. The Middle Atlantic region is characterized as a relatively non-snowy location. Snowy winters are rare and far in between. Several teleconnections and ENSO patterns make these snowy winters more of an anomaly than a common occurrence. I will examine these synoptic setups below.

Also there are clear trends that during the snowy seasons, there are usually one or two large snowstorms that occur. During the less snowy seasons, climatology favors little if any chance of a significant snowstorm. Take these statistics from Baltimore, MD...

Snowiest season on record (95/96)- 62.5inches
Fourth largest snowstorm (96)- 22.5inches
Winter of 95/96 without snowstorm- 40inches
Seasonal Average Mean Snowfall- 18inches
Snow anomaly- +22inches

Fifth snowiest season on record (60/61)- 46.5inches
Ninth largest snowstorm (60)- 14.5inches
Winter of 60/61 without snowstorm- 32inches
Seasonal Average Mean Snowfall- 18inches
Snow anomaly- +14inches

This is just one random example to show that seasons characterized by major nor'easters still manage to have above normal snowfall even without the major snowstorm. Few correlations can be made between less snowy winters accompanied by major snowstorms. So basically odds are significantly higher to have a major snowstorms during already snowy winters. Therefore I am sorry to say, but the winter of 08/09 has a much lower chance of holding a historical east coast snowstorm.

Setups to these Snowy Winters...
The snowy winters found across the Middle Atlantic region are characterized by favorable conditions across the global oceans and jet stream orientation. A first look at one of the indices is the MJO. The MJO stands for the Madden-Julian Oscillation which is an area of disturbed weather characterized by the Indian Ocean tropical influence resulting in heavier than normal precipitation. These transitions and movements take place from west to east resulting in eight different phases that have a direct impact on the weather in North America. Certain phases such as 7 and 8 result in troughing across the eastern US and ridging across the West. Here is a composite mean of phase 8, Dec, Jan, and Feb, anomalies...

(Courtesy of Raleighwx)
Now other phases such as 3 and 4 result in troughing over the West and ridging over the East. Here is a composite mean of phase 3, Dec, Jan, and Feb, anomalies...

(Courtesy of Raleighwx)
Another common index to look at which I will examine later on is the NAO. This is a very important feature. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea-level between the Icelandic Low and the Azores high. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is highly correlated with the Arctic oscillation, as it is a part of it. Link. Winters are highly characterized by the negative and positive phases of the NAO. During positive phases arctic air is kept from plunging southward across North America and usually bottled up towards Greenland. During negative phases strong Canadian Highs build down in North America resulting in troughing across the east coast and ridging across the west coast...

(Courtesy of NOAA)
That graphic is a perfect example of the relationships the NAO shares. Snowy winters are typical accompained by a negative phase for a majority of the winter, but it does not always mean snowy. Take the winter for 08/09 as example. Here is a composite of the past few months and the NAO phase. Notice that we have been under a negative phase for quite a while...

(Courtesy of NOAA)
Yet we do not have anything snowy to show for it. But looking at our temperatures we have average below normal for November, December, and January. Here is the climate station of KMDT which is located just south of Harrisburg...

November- (-1.0)
December- (-.1)
January (as of the 17th)- (-2.6)

The NAO is much more highly driven to affect temperatures than precipitation. But when everything falls together correctly it can produce large snow occurrences.

The PNA is another index which highly affects winter time weather sometimes even more than the NAO. During positive phases ridging occurs across the west and troughing across the east. Take a look at the average PNA mean from 1950-2008...

(Courtesy of NOAA for chart)
Notice that during positive phases the snowier winters tend to occur. Take Washington, DC snowfall and look at the snowy seasons of...

57/58- 40.4inches
02/03- 40.4inches
95/96- 46.0inches

Note that on the PNA chart in the circled locations, the winters have a positive PNA are also found to be quite snowy. Another important index for the Pacific ocean is the PDO which highly affects the snow drought periods and the snowier periods. The PDO is a decadal index which examines Sea Surface temperature trends in the Northern Pacific which is also closely related to the ENSO/SO. Negative phases are characterized by above normal temperatures while positive phases are characterized by below normal temperatures. Positive phases are closely related to a more favorable east coast storm tracks while negative phases favor western troughing. Here is the PDO from 1900-2000. Note that snowy periods such as the early to mid 90s were found with generally positive indices...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Blocking is an important feature that occurs typically across Greenland and helps to result in non-Great lakes storm tracks. High pressure systems or cut-off lows can result in these blocking scenarios across the northern Hemisphere. Large blocking features typically result in snowy conditions downstream across the eastern US along with colder weather. Here is a composite for this year's blocking index. Note the higher amount of blocking towards early January 2009 resulted in a generally colder regime in the east...

(Courtesy of NOAA)

Lastly the greatest impact in Middle Atlantic Winters is the Southern Oscillation patterns. The SO is the sea level pressure anomalies in the Pacific located near the equator, which result in temperature anomaly patterns with below normal temperatures correlating to La Nina and above normal temperature correlating to El Nino. During El Nino phases the Pacific jet is stronger bring an active storm track to the west along with warmer than normal temperatures. La Nina brings a weak jet stream along with a cooler than normal temperatures across the western US and north central US. Both Nina/Nino are unfavorable for significantly snowy seasons in the Middle Atlantic but there are a few differences. El Nino years have been accompanied at times by large storm systems sometimes resulting in heavy snows such as the winter of 1957-1958. During La Nina patterns especially strong ones, favor dry and warm air over the southeast therefore the infamous southeast ridge. Winters such as the non-snowy winter of 1998-1999 can be associated with a strong La Nina. We can thank the last few winters of the 21st century being non-snowy due to La Nina.

Recent Snow Drought...
From about the winter of 2003-2004, many areas across the Middle Atlantic have experienced below normal snowfall. This likely can be closely related to the indices quickly highlighted above. We have been generally under the influence of moderate El Nino patterns and strong La Nina patterns. Here are the mean equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures for those periods of time during the months of December, January, February... Moderate to strong phases have been bolded.

2003 (+1.2)
2004 (+0.4)
2005 (+0.7)
2006 (-0.7)
2007 (+0.8)
2008 (-1.4)

Note that for the most part Pacific sea surface temperatures have been highly volatile and during moderate to strong SO patterns we typically do not do well in the snow department. So lets take snowy winters for example with mean equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures for those periods of time during the months of December, January, February... Moderate to strong phases have been bolded.

1960 (-.3)
1993 (+.3)
1994 (+.4)
1996 (-.7)
2002 (-.1)

Out of the sample note that only one season favored moderate SO patterns and generally that season of 95/96 was characterized as a weak Nina pattern. Generally these periods of moderate Nina and Nino have resulted in the recent snow drought. Some are quick to blame global warming but lets take a look at some statistics. The following are the least snowy seasons on record for Middle Atlantic seasons...

Philadelphia (1972-1973)- Trace
Baltimore (1949-1950)- .7inches
Washington DC (1972-1973) .1inches
Wilmington (1931-1932)- Trace
Harrisburg (1937-1938)- 8.8inches
Allentown (1931-1932)- 5.0inches
Trenton (1918-1919)- 2.0inches

Note that all of these least snowy winters have occurred greater than 35 years ago. Also many of the least snowy winters were found in the 1930s. Lack of snowfall and global warming has little to no correlation in the Middle Atlantic region. Therefore this likely proves we are headed for a snowy period soon. Also some of the snowiest seasons on record such as 1993-1994, 1995-1996, and 2002-2003 have all occurred within the past 15 years. So based on this data is seems that if you want to blame anything, blame it on the unfavorable Pacific. Another index not in our favor is the PDO which has been negative for quite a while, but showing signs of slowly inching more neutral or even positive. Overall I think expectations are a bit too high for snowfall each season especially from the Mason-Dixon line on southward. Areas north of the Mason-Dixon line have significantly higher seasonal snow totals than areas just to the south. For example the seasonal average at Middletown just south of Harrisburg is 36inches, while the average at Baltimore is 18inches with a distance of 88miles. Now take that seasonal average of 36inches at Middletown and look farther towards Williamsport with an average of 41inches and a distance of 90miles. Note the larger gradient to the south with different seasonal totals.

Analysis President's Day Snowstorm...
This winter is one of recent memory in which there was consistent snows throughout the winter along with one historical east coast snowstorm. So what made this winter stand apart? Well it is because it had a neutral ENSO status along with a negative NAO for the majority of the winter. Two distinct major snowstorms stand out with one being the President's Day Storm and the other being the Christmas Snowstorm. So here is my analysis of the President's day storm. This will detail what to look for in the coming days for a major snowstorm....
“”(Courtesy of NOAA)

Looking on a global index level, the PNA was at a favorable positive level along with a negative NAO trending positive. Almost all significant east coast snowstorms have been found that the NAO trends towards a positive level right during the storm. There is no clear definition reason why, but it is always a near correlation. Here are a few examples and I circled some significant blizzards...

(Courtesy of NOAA for the chart)

Looking the surface map it is evident to see a anticyclone to the north of the storm system which helps to keep the cold air funneled in especially east of the Appalachians. The presence of a high to the north is a must of a major east coast snowstorm...

Looking at the 500mb chart you can see the clear upper level troughing beginning to become negatively tilted therefore resulting in the coastal forming off the coast of North Carolina...


For major snowstorms cyclongenesis must occur downstream of the trough axis with the jet streak located to the north. A large region of ascent then occurs combined with isentropic lift forming precipitation likely in the form of snow to the north of the system. Initially precipitation remains light. As warmer and moist air rises aloft over the surface low, a rapid deepening of pressure then occurs making the shield of precipitation much larger and heavier. As this occurs, frontogenisis takes place creating the heavier embedded snow bands...

(Courtesy of The Weather Channel and DEWX at Easternwx)
As the deepening of the low occurs, heavier precipitation continues to break out before the low lifts out to sea. So overall for major snowstorms there must be presence of anticyclone favorably located over Ontario or Quebec, source of Gulf/Atlantic moisture, rapidly deepening low or transfer of low pressure energy, source of strong frontogenisis, fresh batch of cold arctic air resulting in cold air damming, an upper level trough with a central trough axis resulting in a negative tilt for North Carolina low formation, and a favorable negative trending positive NAO.

Concluding Thoughts...
Well as you can see Middle Atlantic snowy winters are quite fickle and difficult to predict. Large snows only come together when synoptics are all near perfect. When missing part of the equation, it completely throws out a snowy solution. Also I hope you see that it is likely not climate change resulting in this period of non snowy weather across for the past few years in the Middle Atlantic. It is impossible for me to see if this pattern continues through next winter, but it will definitely be interesting to watch. ENSO patterns seem to play the most significant roles in our snowy v. non snowy winters so that is definitely important. One of these years we will have a neutral year. I think many of us are just frustrated with this current winter because we have the cold air. In fact much of North America has experienced the coldest air since 1994 with even Maine breaking the all time record low for the state which is now -50degrees. Parts of Pennsylvania dropped in the negative 20s with even areas such as State College dropping to -15. Many areas also have a little bit of snow on the ground so it definitely feels like winter. In fact it is currently lightly snowing and 16degrees here as I type this. It just seems that every time we get a big storm system it tracks to the west of us putting the eastern US in the warm sector. Then as the secondary low forms, it forms too far north of us to keep the Middle Atlantic cold. Ice storms seem to be quite common during these La Nina events. I hope you have a new appreciation for our snowy winters. This is my 100th blog here at Wunderground and I hope that one of these days we can get that significant east coast storm system to track here. Have a wonderful evening!!!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2008-2009 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 1.5-2.5inches
Monthly Total- 3.50inches
Seasonal Total- 13.95inches
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 1
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 3

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 14degrees
Lowest Low Temperature- -3degrees
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Snow - October 29 - Trace
First Snow on Ground - November 18 - Coating
Lake Effect Snow - November 21/22 - 6.00inches
Synoptic Snow - December 16 - 3.5inches
Clipper - January 17-19 - 1.5inches

January Deep Freeze... (Blizzard92)
After some of the coldest weather in years, the Susquehanna River at Rockville just north of Harrisburg is nearly frozen over.
January Deep Freeze...
January Deep Freeze... (Blizzard92)
After some of the coldest weather in years, the Susquehanna River at Rockville just north of Harrisburg is nearly frozen over.
January Deep Freeze...
January Deep Freeze... (Blizzard92)
After some of the coldest weather in years, the Susquehanna River at Rockville just north of Harrisburg is nearly frozen over.
January Deep Freeze...
January Deep Freeze... (Blizzard92)
After some of the coldest weather in years, the Susquehanna River at Rockville just north of Harrisburg is nearly frozen over.
January Deep Freeze...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 367 - 317

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

367. SilverShipsofAndilar
6:30 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Any guesses on how much snow we'll get in Carlisle/Harrisburg?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
366. TheRasberryPatch
6:01 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
so the first storm will be moving west to east. hmmmmm. i wonder how much moisture makes it over the mountains.
now a gulf storm will definitely be full of moisture. with those storms, though i can only recall the storm of the century back in '93 holding true to form so far off. i don't think i have seen a snow storm accurately predicted that far off like that one
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
365. Snowlover2010
4:26 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
so bliz 12z GFS ensembles stay south. any change in your thinking today?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
364. Snowlover2010
3:54 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
well Bliz looks like 12z GFS wants to have me mix a little. Who knows thoughs as I am right on the line.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
363. Zachary Labe
3:15 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
So here we go again. Another potential big snowsstorm this time modeled even bigger than the bust snowstorm before. When can we get excited? After 0z Monday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
362. Snowlover2010
2:33 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Snowlover thats great


srry. wish ya could be down here to experience it.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
361. TheDawnAwakening
2:30 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Snowlover thats great
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
360. Snowlover2010
2:23 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
well i have to unfortunately say. 12 NAM looks GREAT!!!!!!!! HA HA
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
359. BostonDan
2:12 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Morning Blizz. Nice pics. The Susquehanna River scene sure looks cold!
Member Since: February 10, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 431
358. SilverShipsofAndilar
2:04 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Snowlover's link from earlier is showing more snow than before. Will Carlisle see 18 inches? http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
357. jthal57
1:59 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Blizzard- Very impressive ice pictures! Despite last Thurs.&Fri., we've had some very cold morning lows. We still have a couple-inch snow pack which is probably helping that. Low of 5.4F here this AM. Avg. low temp this month is 13.9F. I'm liking our snow chances this week!
356. TheDawnAwakening
1:59 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
No Palmyra, Central NH.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
355. PalmyraPunishment
1:54 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:
Brothers . . . let it snow, let it snow, let it SNOW. Carlisle will not be cheated this time.


don't kill it. good god don't kill it lol.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
354. SilverShipsofAndilar
1:49 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Brothers . . . let it snow, let it snow, let it SNOW. Carlisle will not be cheated this time. I want a solid 6. It will be the most snow I've ever seen from a single storm. Then, if we get another 6 from the second storm, it will tie my personal most-snow-seen-from-one-storm record. I'm not being greedy here (Snowlover, a.k.a. Mr. 10 plus 10). After my life was ruined earlier this month when we got .5 inches out of a possible 5-9, I learned to lower my expectations.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
353. PalmyraPunishment
1:45 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Figures, we get the big storms when I am at school far north from my hometown. It is a bone chilling -15F outside now and I hope not to go outside until dinner.


thats cold. lol. with that kinda cold, i gotta ask -- you a student at UMaine?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
352. TheDawnAwakening
1:42 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Figures, we get the big storms when I am at school far north from my hometown. It is a bone chilling -15F outside now and I hope not to go outside until dinner.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
351. PalmyraPunishment
1:39 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
morning everybody

time to start banging the drums.

i've been away for a few days, so i'm going to catch up on some reading here. think snow!
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
350. HeavySnow
1:31 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
I'm expecting 2 feet minimum! No I'm demanding it! I feel it. Maybe?
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
349. Zachary Labe
1:26 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- The storms follow different paths. The one for mid week comes from the west and the one potential later in the week is the gulf storm moving north that you have wondered where they have been.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
348. TheRasberryPatch
1:24 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
just my observation throughout my lifetime. very very rarely do we get 2 storms one after another following the same path. it seems like the second storm is just a bit east to give us much. winter 95-96 was different.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
347. Zachary Labe
1:21 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Snowlover2010- This storm is a pretty fast mover and I still have my doubts, so keep 10inches as a best case scenario.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
346. Snowlover2010
1:19 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
oh bliz would it not be awesome if this gave me ten inches and then the next storm on the GFS that rides the coast comes a little west and gives me ten more! I'm telling ya mother nature is trying to ask forgiviness for the past 5 winters! HAHA!:)
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
345. Zachary Labe
1:14 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Snowlover2010- 5-10inches.


*New blog coming this afternoon.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
344. Snowlover2010
1:13 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Bliz I think our time has come! How much does the EURO give us?:)
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
343. Snowlover2010
1:08 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
i'm telling ya bliz. if this 6z run comes true and I get 18-20inches of snow i would do amazing things!:)
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
342. Zachary Labe
1:07 PM GMT on January 25, 2009
Wow, some wild things happened overnight! The 0z EURO and 0z GFS show major snowstorm from DC on north. 0z GFS prints out 10inches of snow while 6z GFS prints out 14inches of snow... Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
341. SilverShipsofAndilar
4:33 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
Quoting Snowlover2010:
GFS:
Link
EURO:
Link


Thanks, brother.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
340. HeavySnow
4:10 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
Yes, blizz, that was my igloo, but it was totally of sleet! It was a 5-6 inch sleet storm. No snow at all! Best thing I ever did with wintry precip. I'm dying to do it again. Soon!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
339. Snowlover2010
4:06 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
GFS:
Link
EURO:
Link
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
338. SilverShipsofAndilar
4:04 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
Where are you guys looking at these models? The GFS and EURO etc?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
337. Snowlover2010
4:02 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
hey bliz how about that 00z GFS, still holding onto hope. i am telling ya i have a great feeling bout this one!
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
336. shoreacres
3:15 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
Blizzard ~ Per usual, I skipped the charts but I "got" the beginning and the end of what you had to say, and loved the photos. Wxgeek has some pics of ice floes over in New Jersey - I didn't stay long enough to remember it all, but they have had enough cold to freeze up the rivers there, too.

The irony is that even though we got snow before Christmas, and have had a few pretty cold days, I don't have a sense of winter having reallly been here at all. Maybe that's because I'm getting old and picky and don't go out and work the docks any more when it drops below 40 or so! I can remember being out there in 20 degree wind chills - but I was just a young 'un then!

Have a good evening, and a nice Sunday.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
335. Zachary Labe
2:56 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
HeavySnow- Lol, didn't you build a big snow igloo a winter or two ago.

Snowlover2010- Keep your fingers crossed.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
334. HeavySnow
2:56 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
Yay for no jump north!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
333. Snowlover2010
2:53 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
my bad bliz i meant 12-14. ya the NAM looks awesome. i think this has great potential. HPC has precip maps out and are saying i will see .75-.1in of precip. thats at least 6-10inches!
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
332. HeavySnow
2:52 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
I have two flexible flyer runner sleds in perfect sledding condition. Now I need some snow. I also have about 10-15 other snow riding implements, it's a sickness, I know. Again, I really need some snow.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
331. Zachary Labe
2:51 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
Snowlover2010- Yea it shows that, I think you just had a typo in the comment as you said 12-24. Anyways 0z NAM is out and at least it didn't do any major jump north.

0z NAM keeps hope alive for DC...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
330. Snowlover2010
2:49 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
yo bliz check out this link for the 18z snowfall map. it shows a small strip through lancaster county, where i live, of 12-14. Link
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
329. Zachary Labe
2:43 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
Snowlover2010- It only prints out 6-10inches.?.? Anyways I hope that verifies but do not get hopes up especially with northern trends this winter.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
328. Zachary Labe
2:40 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
HeavySnow- Wow, the Potomac. At least you are able to ice skate this winter, unlike many.

TheRasberryPatch- Thanks! Not sure, although I did hear that the Delaware was the thickest ice in spots in about 5 years. I do not think they make those sleds any more, too dangerous in this day in age, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
327. Snowlover2010
2:39 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
yo bliz 18z GFS gives me 12-24 by the end of the week! how i hope that happens!:)
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
326. TheRasberryPatch
2:37 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
nice pictures Blizz. btw - i wonder how the Chesapeake is doing? its been so long since i can recall the coast guard cutting a path for the ships to get through.

that link is impressive, blizz. you just hope it comes through, huh. then we can get some sledding in. nothing like a metal runner on a steep slope, though. do people use flexible flyers still? also. if we get that snow that means i will have to change the oil in my snowblower. what are you trying to do to me? lol
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
325. HeavySnow
2:32 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
That's better than nothing blizz. The Potomac is still frozen over about halfway up DC and quite impressively just north of the city line. I ice skated on a local lake just today. Seems crazy after yesterdays temps in the 50's, but it was still thick enough for a load of skaters. Let's get some snow now!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
324. Zachary Labe
1:20 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
wxgeek72- I took those pictures this evening around 4:30, so no melting what so ever. The river rescue just caught a bunch of kids trying to cross it the other night. The Susquehanna is one of the most dangerous rivers east of the Mississippi so it is never safe to cross. But at least near the shore the ice was over 5inches+ thick. The ice has not been this thick in years comparing pictures from previous winters, though in 2007 in February it was nearly that thick.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
323. wxgeek723
1:17 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
Hey Blizzard! I'm amazed-the Susquehanna froze over? That's pretty impressive. It's not very thick and not safe to walk on, is it? The cold earlier this week was brutal, but I guess any winter day with a wind over 10 mph is brutal to me, LOL. Did the river melt after yesterday's and today's warmup (that had wonderful timing)?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
322. Zachary Labe
1:16 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
HeavySnow- I think this is your best chance all year even if it be a snow to rain scenario. I think light to moderate snow accumulations are possible before a changeover to rain. Still though, things are trending northery so it is a close call.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
321. HeavySnow
12:41 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
And what of us sad sacks here in the DC area? Snow for us? NWS seems to be leaning that way. Tell me more! Please.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
320. Zachary Labe
12:07 AM GMT on January 25, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- La Nina years tend to have the least amount of coastal storms as jet stream does not really setup to be supportive. El Nino years average more coastals, but by far neutral years are our best winters. On a side note take a look at this printout from the 18z GFS for next week... Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
319. TheRasberryPatch
11:58 PM GMT on January 24, 2009
the only good thing about this winter is the overrunning has kept us from having a dry winter.
is the the reason the southern jet is not active because of la nina?

one comment about the average snowfall for areas to the south like Baltimore. growing up there our average was low, but from what i recall most of the 18" or so was 3" or more throughout the year. i don't recall too many 1/2" or 1" storms. definitely, growing up in Towson, we had some great sledding when it snowed. That is the snow I remember. We had so much fun with our flexible flyers down our alleys. i grew up with a great alley that ran downhill with a turn. we used to ice it up and really fly. nothing like sledding with metal runners and running and flopping on our sleds. you just don't find that too much any more.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
318. Zachary Labe
11:39 PM GMT on January 24, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Yep, basically. The flow has become more zonal. Lows coming from due west and become transiet as they move east. December had lots of overrunning events. And remember about two weeks ago I mentioned that this pattern would be occurring again, and that seems exactly the case. We just can't seem to get an active southern jet. This winter has had even less active coastal events than last winter.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
317. TheRasberryPatch
11:35 PM GMT on January 24, 2009
so with the overrunning i am guessing there will be a front to the south of us near the border and it will be fluctuating back and forth?
what is it with the overrunning setups? i don't recall them too often in the winter. spring and summer, yes, but not winter. at least not like we have been getting this year. it seems like in the past most of our winter weather is from a front moving SE from the midwest or a storm coming up from the gulf or carolina
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276

Viewing: 367 - 317

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Fall in Ithaca
Snow Fluff
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD

Personal Weather Stations

About Personal Weather Stations