Snow headed for start of weekend...

By: Zachary Labe , 9:21 PM GMT on January 07, 2009

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Thoughts on January 9-10 storm...
Lack of confidence for forecast, therefore no discussion on storm. I believe that much of central Pennsylvania will be dry slotted and then as precipitation moves in, some of it will mix. Accumulations will be lucky to get to 4inches I think at this point. I am not one to give up on a storm, but I have had a bad feeling about this storm all week, just see my posts from a few days ago. I think these warnings may bust badly. I-80 corridor and northward is place to be as frontogensis places heavy snow band at that location. A sharp cutoff can be expected to the south. Then as precipitation moves in due north of low, mixing will take place. What we need to setup is a good initial band across central Pennsylvania as indicated by some earlier model runs on the 700mb RH moisture charts. Whether that will happen or not is a guestion. I have a feeling some areas in York and Lancaster will really get shafted. In any case I hope I am wrong, but this is how I see things this evening. And I would rather feel good to know that I am firm with my gut than stick with the NWS forecast of warning criteria snowfall just because they have a winter storm warning.

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
This is my experimental snow/mix/rain lines. These lines may adjust up to 25miles north or south, but they are my best estimation at this current time. This precipitation line is for the height of the storm, some initial snowfall to south of the lines is expected.

My rain/sleet line is... Deep Valley (Greene County) - Morgantown, WV - Frostburg, MD - Frederick, MD - Manchester, MD - Delta (York County) - Oxford (Chester County) - Wilmington, DE

My sleet/snow line is... Pittsburgh (Alleghany County) - Latrobe (Westmoreland County) - Johnstown (Cambria County) - Bedford (Bedford County) - Shippensburg (Cumberland County) - Middletown (Dauphin County) - Ephrata (Lancaster County) - Quakertown (Bucks County)

These are overall precipitation types. Precipitation types can wander several miles on either side of the lines.

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Significant, widespread snowstorm.
2. Largest snowstorm for Pennsylvania for the winter season.
3. Mixing will cut down on accumulations for border counties.
4. Snow ratios near 13:1, 15:1.
5. Quick moving system.

Snow Map...

*Note the southern part of the 5-9inch will more likely be 4-8inches.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- 1-3inches of light snow. Freezing rain up to .1inches.
Baltimore, MD- Light snow/sleet then rain. C-1inch of snow.
Washington, DC- Trace of light snow/sleet then rain.
Wilmington, DE- Light snow then rain. 1-3inches of snow.
Dover, DE- Trace of light snow then rain.
Cape May, NJ- Rain up to .5inches.
Trenton, NJ- 2-4inches of snow then sleet and rain.
New York City, NY- Moderate snow mixing with sleet and rain. 3-5inches of snow possible.
Poughkeepsie, NY- Heavy snow likely. 6-10inches of snow.
Binghamton, NY- Moderate to heavy snow likely. 5-10inches of snow.
Albany, NY- Moderate snow. Snow accumulations 4-8inches.
Hartford, CT- Heavy snow likely. 6-11inches of snow possible.
Concord, NH- 3-5inches of light snow.
Providence, RI- Heavy snow with some sleet. 5-9inches of snow.
Worcester, MA- Heavy snow likely with 6-10inches.
Boston, MA- Heavy snow. 6-10inches of snow likely.
Nantucket, MA- Moderate snow with some sleet. 3-5inches of snow.
Hyannis, MA- Moderate snow with 3-7inches.
Portland, ME- Light snow. 2-4inches.
Bangor, ME- Light snow. C-1inch of snow.
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
After one of the most frusturating groups of model runs, we are now finally coming to a consensus. Model blend for my forecast consists of NAM/GFS/GGEM blend with EURO only for idea of mixing farther north. Models took a while to come on a solution as the EURO had a much more amplified runs and took the low well to the north. Meanwhile the GFS was the southern outlier along with the UKMET and showed the low crossing through central Virginia. As we got closer to the event, the NAM provided a middle ground solution and held ever side consistent with it generally trending only a bit to the south. The new EURO has now come around to a NAM track with similar temperature profiles. Track of 850 vortex low seems pretty consistent for all of the models tracking across central Pennsylvania between I-80 and the turnpike. This will cause mixes to occur generally to the south of the turnpike as a sliver of warm air sits at around 900-950mb. Timing is a major issue with the models as the NAM seems to be very slow with the system and even the latest 18z NAM does not show bulk of precipitation until the 24hour mark. Looking at the GGEM model it currently is the farther north, tracking the low across the Turnpike and bringing the H85 0C line as far north as just south of I-80. But during short term predictions I do not advise using the GGEM as the resolution is lower. The Canadian RGEM is a better high resolution model and takes the system very similar to the NAM with similar temperature profiles. The GFS finall came around to a slightly farther north solution taking the low just south of the Mason-Dixon line and that seems to be a good track. Personally I think the GFS has the best hold on this storm with temperature profiles, track, and QPF. Here is the simulated radar from the HIRES NMM for the height of the system...

As you can see it is pretty widespread with precipitation. Here are the final QPF totals for the GFS...

This a relatively sharp gradient, so that will need to be monitored in the form on Nowcasts.

After the storm...
Good Wednesday afternoon!!! This is the only section I will update for today, but there is a lot to talk about. So far I am very pleased with how my winter outlook is unfolding. Cold temperatures have dominated the winter so far along with snowfall +-1-2inches of normal, which is my call. It does appear we are entering what I believe to be the main theme of January. Who is ready to board the clipper express? Extreme cold air has been bottled up in Alaska for quite a while part in response to an unfavorable polar vortex over the region. A shift in this vortex will occur. This vortex is part reason why storm tracks have been through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Lets first look at the teleconnections... The NAO is sharply negative currently with a negative PNA. The negative NAO is balancing out the unfavorable PNA resulting in near normal temperatures for the time period. Right now if we had less blocking and a positive NAO, I think we would be quite mild. The NAO is trending towards a positive state. Now in the past massive swings like this have been accompanied by major storms systems along the coast. In fact all major snowstorms on the east coast have showed a negative to positive trend in NAO. But for now models are speculative to anything of that occuring. 0z GGEM from Wednesday morning had a tightly wound cutoff low inland bombing out, but that scenario seems unlikely for next week. The AO index is positive currently and will be trending sharply negative during the time period of this arctic blast. The PNA lastly is going to be positive through this time period. The EPO and PNA being in favorable conditions along with the negative AO should balance out the effects of the positive NAO. Another major feature resulting in this highly cold period coming up is the dramatic shift of the MJO. Over much of December it was in phase 4 trending to phase 5, which favors more of a midwest and western US trough axis resulting in inland runners. Now finally we have moved into phase 6 and possibly into phase 7 which is ideal for an east coast trough axis. Something of concern is the La Nina that has developed quite impressively over the central Pacific with temperature anomalies near -1.1degree. Now there has been a few signs of warming waters very gradually surrounding the cold anomaly region. Also I have found from the past that La Ninas typically peak in early winter with a gradual decrease or otherwise known as warming of sea surface temperatures. All ENSO/SO climatic schemes are different and they cannot be put into judgement on further exact forecasts for future, but in this overall pattern the SO is the bust potential.

So now onto global models. They are in fair agreement for a severe arctic blast lasting from midweek next week through at least January 21, nearly a seven day period. H85s are near -20C with even a core of -30C across southern Canada. Surface temperatures likely resulting in negative numbers in some areas and single digits. While this seems extreme, it is all of the models showing this. EURO at times has been even more extreme showing polar vortex over the Great Lakes. This will result in likely a few lake effect snow outbreaks and many clippers. The latest 12z GFS from Wednesday afternoon makes this an evident idea with clippers moving in every few days bringing colder and colder air, snow ratios for some of these events may be near 30:1 across the north. The coldest temperatures look to be in the 10day mean with strong riding on east coast. Also another evident sign of cold air will be the positive anomalies across much of Alaska. Temperatures will be quite bitter for several days with gusty northwest winds under a times tight gradients. This will likely be the coldest period of the winter. Also I apologize for not issuing a January formal outlook, but it does seem like the month will be below normal for average snowfall for all across Pennsylvania. It has already started off very wintry and this is likely to continue. Stay warm all!

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2008-2009 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- C-1.5inch of snow
Monthly Total- 2.00inches
Seasonal Total- 12.45inches
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 1
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 3

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 14degrees
Lowest Low Temperature- -3degrees
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Snow - October 29 - Trace
First Snow on Ground - November 18 - Coating
Lake Effect Snow - November 21/22 - 6.00inches
Synoptic Snow - December 16 - 3.5inches

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908. TheRasberryPatch
1:55 AM GMT on January 18, 2009
it snowed. wasn't much to amount to anything. got to see snow, though. hahaha

looking at the radar at the top of the page it looks like we will have a period of snow overnight
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
907. Stanb999
12:17 AM GMT on January 18, 2009
Hey, I'll head down to the Susquehanna tomorrow and see if it's solid all the way across. Up here there is a section in the town of Susquehanna that is deep and slow. I bet it's solid by now. Maybe the whole stretch?
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
906. Zachary Labe
12:08 AM GMT on January 18, 2009
Stanb999- Wow, thanks for your report.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
905. Stanb999
12:01 AM GMT on January 18, 2009
Good evening Blizzard,

I just had to tell ya.
I went by the neighbors this afternoon. He said it hit -18f. He is less than a mile away but 500ft lower in elevation.

Have a good night.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
904. Zachary Labe
11:51 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
We currently now have light snow!
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903. Zachary Labe
11:16 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- I know it is hitting the ground in State College with a coating being reported. But the place most of the snow is, I have not heard any reports.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
902. TheRasberryPatch
11:08 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
hey that's true, Blizz about the spotters. i wasn't paying attention. finally.

any idea if the snow is hitting the ground? if so someone is getting a nice bit of light snow. it appears to be staying in one spot
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
901. Zachary Labe
11:02 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- Temperatures will likely rise slightly overnight.

TheRasberryPatch- Looks like finally Lebanon County had some spotters...

... Lebanon County...
Lebanon -6 1/17 700 am spotter
ft Indiantown Gap -4 1/17 800 am GOES
Jonestown -2 1/17 800 am spotter
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
900. TheRasberryPatch
10:58 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
the clouds are very thick to my west, but i have partly cloudy skies over my head
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
899. TheRasberryPatch
10:45 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Blizz - it looks like the snow can't make it into this drya air mass over me. i notice the record report. very interesting. i got to only 1.9F for my low. Didn't make it to minus numbers.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
898. TheDawnAwakening
9:38 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Yes they are Blizz. Ocean effect clouds and snow showers developing over western Cape Cod, MA and Martha's Vineyard, MA. Again the likely favored areas of summer time thunderstorms are getting the ocean effect snows on a southwest flow. Normally a southwest or southerly flow would favor Nantucket, MA and Martha's Vineyard, MA. Temps of 19F with a dew point of 5F.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
897. Zachary Labe
9:34 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- Sundogs are quite common during these alto-stratus days.

TheRasberryPatch- Yep that is the same one I am using too. Looks like there is some momentum to the snow, so I guess we will have to wait and see.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
896. TheRasberryPatch
9:32 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Blizz the radar i am using is this oneLink

it looks like the other night where it just didn't make it over the mountains. also, the dewpts are real low here.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
895. TheDawnAwakening
9:15 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Blizzard, possible ocean effect snow showers developing to my southwest, but look too far southwest and west to affect me at this time. Clouds have been increasing all afternoon and after the Celtics won today I saw two sun dogs outside roughly 20 to 25 minutes ago.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
894. Zachary Labe
9:06 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Check out that radar without virga, shows some decent snow moving in.

PalmyraPunishment- I hope everyone enjoys it, I really try to cover the middle atlantic winter from snow droughts to major snows.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
893. PalmyraPunishment
8:53 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
The Middle Atlantic Winter: One Greek Tragedy After Another by Blizzard92

i smell a best seller. hahaha

Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
892. TheRasberryPatch
8:51 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
it looks like a bit of snow riding along the turnpike near harrisburg
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
891. TheRasberryPatch
8:45 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
looking forward to it Blizz. did you see the forecast for the next few days. they even have an accumulation for monday.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
890. Zachary Labe
8:41 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Well I have started my blog which will debut best case scenario this evening, but likely tomorrow. This blog is a special feature one which will be "The Middle Atlantic Winter." I hope you enjoy it.
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889. TheRasberryPatch
8:19 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
cica - just curious did you use warm water? that is what i was told to use.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
888. cicadaknot
8:17 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Got down to -11 here in Schuylkill County and -3 yesterday morning. That's the lowest i've measured since i got the station 5 years ago. Tried the hot water toss this morning and got a giant cloud, but no snow.

Bliz- according to the fish commission, they recommend 6+ of ice to be safe, however 2 inches of 'clear ice' is enough to hold a person easily. As always, good judgment is key.
Member Since: July 17, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 75
887. TheDawnAwakening
7:19 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Blizz, its too tough, so I am going to a place where its not even tough to get snow, Central NH for college next week. Won't be on here as much, and that's a good thing.
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886. TheRasberryPatch
6:43 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Blizz - don't get me wrong, there was ice, but you also saw water. now today is probably different.
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885. Zachary Labe
6:33 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- That's odd. Well by the start of next week it will likely be frozen over.
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884. TheRasberryPatch
6:31 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
I was surprised to see the Swatara Creek yesterday wasn't frozen over at Rt 39 bridge.
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883. TheRasberryPatch
6:28 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
i hear you PP. i didn't start skating and playing until 2003. i took an introductory hockey class taught by Tim Tookey. He was great and he taught you all the fundamentals of skating first. I played for about 3 years on a team where we played at Twin Ponds East and West. Of course no one plays any checking in the leagues. Most people have to get up and work the next day and don't want to get hurt and miss work, especially if you have a family to take care.
My biggest problem with playing hockey now, is that on foot i am very fast, but on skates I had guys that were faster (they had been skating for years) that i know i can run circles around. I wasn't slow, but when guys can cut on a dime and go around you it gets frustrating.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
882. Zachary Labe
6:27 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
And the cold spot in Pennsylvania for this outbreak goes to........

... Cambria County...
Nanty Glo -28 1/17 700 am spotter
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
881. Zachary Labe
6:25 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
SilverShipsofAndilar- Yea I agree with Palmyra, that seems a bit thin. Maybe on Monday by then it will be thicker.

TheDawnAwakening- Many storms are rain storms in the winter up there, tough place out there on the Cape.

jthal57- Fantastic picture! I hope to get some on Monday of the Susquehanna which is much more frozen than the Delaware.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
880. jthal57
5:41 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Blizzard-low of -4F here this AM. Sounds like some light snow tonight/Sun.AM. Got out and took some ice pictures of the Delwaware River earlier.
879. TheDawnAwakening
5:01 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Clipper looks very dynamic right now over the Great Lakes. It has a very well defined spin to it.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
878. seflagamma
4:59 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Bliz,

good morning to you and happy weekend!
I would say you are a little cold this mornig LOL

have a good day!

glitter graphics
Free Glitter Graphics, Saturday Glitter Graphics
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40956
877. PalmyraPunishment
4:32 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
i'd love to play with you PP. have you tried the new rink in Palmyra?


nah i haven't made it out there. the last time i've played in an actual rink was a couple of years ago at this place in Altoona next to Blair County Ballpark. i like rinks (ok, i like the fact that rinks have boards and glass, simply because i like playing full-check) but there's nothing like playing on a lake or a pond, or a river that's wide enough.

sure the game is sloppier outside due to bumpier ice, softer ice, and other inconsistencies where a rink provides a faster version of the game -- but it just feels so much better freezing to death. if you can't tell, i'm a bit of a purist lol.
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876. TheRasberryPatch
4:26 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
i'd love to play with you PP. have you tried the new rink in Palmyra?
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875. TheDawnAwakening
4:20 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Another rainstorm for Cape Cod, MA.
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874. PalmyraPunishment
4:06 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:
I walked out a few paces and measured, and we've got a hair under three inches of ice. I'm originally from Texas, so I don't know much about this "ice" stuff. Think it's safe or should I wait?


hmm, 3 inches -- i think i'd wait a little bit. i have a pond at my parents house, and when i would go out on lake raystown (when it would freeze) i wouldn't go until it was 4 or 5 or 6 inches. it may be 3 inches in some place, but it may also be somewhat soft ice. i would err on the side of caution
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
873. SilverShipsofAndilar
4:03 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
I walked out a few paces and measured, and we've got a hair under three inches of ice. I'm originally from Texas, so I don't know much about this "ice" stuff. Think it's safe or should I wait?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
872. PalmyraPunishment
4:00 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
man, i'd kill to have a place to skate right now. that and 9 more people to get a nice game of hockey going. nothing better than playin' hockey outside.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
871. Zachary Labe
3:49 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
SilverShipsofAndilar- I am located north of Harrisburg on the foothills of Blue Mountain. It is about 200ft higher than surrounding areas. It is always colder here with a bit more snow. I think many will be able to actually ice skate this weekend, and I am hoping to get some pictures of the Susquehanna River on Monday.
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870. SilverShipsofAndilar
3:46 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Yeah, I saw that you mentioned a while back that they're very dry. On the plus side, we may be doing some ice skating before the weekend is out. Can't believe you made it to -3 in Harrisburg. I think we only made it to 2 in Carlisle. I'm going to go test the ice.
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869. Zachary Labe
3:42 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
SilverShipsofAndilar- I mentioned this a few days ago, but I do see more of a wet pattern coming up starting towards later in the month of January. If we have enough cold air, there could be some decent overrunning snows. These arctic airmasses are never good for snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
868. SilverShipsofAndilar
3:37 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
That's too bad. We've been short-changed with the snow over here. I only saw one inch of the six you saw on November 21/22. We've kept up otherwise, but some more snow sure would be nice. Well, here's hoping to the February and/or March blizzard(s) of 2009...
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
867. Zachary Labe
3:19 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
SilverShipsofAndilar0- C-1inch if you are lucky. There should be a dry slot over much of eastern Pennsylvania, but I do think some areas will see some light snow accumulations mainly north of the turnpike and west of the Lebanon-York line.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
866. TheRasberryPatch
3:08 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Heavy - you keep believing your slanted networks and your hollywood buffoons, which btw is losing viewers by the millions while i will keep listening to my classic rock. i don't have time for orwellian networks. thanks for reading my thoughts about Obama. I have no idea what you are talking about, but i appreciate you reading my thoughts. sounds like a liberal - telling me what i am supposed to think and how to think. seig heil. now should i start bowing down to the name of obama?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
865. SilverShipsofAndilar
3:07 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
How much snow are we getting in Carlisle from this clipper? Don't tell us 5-9 inches unless you really mean it this time.
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864. Zachary Labe
2:54 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
cchamp6- Wow, that sure is cold. Thanks for your report.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
863. HeavySnow
2:03 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Real quick RP, thanks for your slanted views. It is not I who have fallen into their trap. I can actually think for myself and form my own opinions by watching and listening to all things presented as news. Certainly only a child would think that talk radio is giving anyone the REAL news as you say. That must be the mouse king. Talk radio is not reality, it's who can yell louder and who can say the most ludicrous statement. I bet you think Obama needs to show everyone his birth certificate to prove he's a U.S. citizen. Now enough of this talk, back to a possibly impending snowstorm, something we all can agree that we want.
Bring on the SNOW!
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862. cchamp6
1:42 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
-16.2 degrees here in northwest Connecticut Blizz. 2 degrees colder than yesterday.
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861. Zachary Labe
12:48 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Well we did it here just north of Harrisburg. It is currently -3degrees. This is actually the first time it has dropped below zero since I have had my vantage pro2.
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860. PalmyraPunishment
12:31 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
ahh yes, who's up for an "uncomfortable silence"?

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859. TheRasberryPatch
12:29 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
a low of 1.9F this morning. i see the clipper is already going through Michigan
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
858. TheRasberryPatch
12:26 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
Real quick Heavy - thanks for your slanted take on talk radio. i appreciate that. Thats fine that you can fall into their trap. I will stick with the REAL news. Why do you think the Democrats in congress want to install the fairness doctrine? So they can quiet talk radio and have their truth presented on the networks. There are too many examples to get into.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276

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