Winter Storm Discussion for January 6-7...

By: Zachary Labe , 3:55 PM GMT on December 30, 2008

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Thoughts on December 31 storm...
A relatively organized Alberta clipper will make a swing at northern Pennsylvania with some light to moderate snow accumulations. 1004mb vortex will be dropping out of the Upper Great Lakes in Michigan spreading light snow to the north of the track with the heaviest amounts located along and to the north of the 500mb jet streak. The clipper will be fast moving and only produce snow at locations for a little over 6hours. Initially there is some dry air to overcome as dewpoints are low in the teens, but with enough forcing this afternoon by later today some light snow will break out across western Pennsylvania. With cold air aloft and at the surface for areas north of I-80 it will be easy for snow ratios near 15:1 or 20:1 with decent ice crystal growth and dendrite development. Higher elevations above 1800ft with eastern facing slopes will pick up the highest accumulations of snow as orographic lift will be able to add to the moisture content. Forcing and energy with the associated clipper is rather impressive given the typical lack of dynamics with these systems. QPF will likely max out around .4inches somewhere in the northeastern mountains. Even with .25inches of QPF across the north country, snow ratios and excellent ice crystal growth will be able to accumulate 5inches in favored locations. Looking at bufkit data, Omega levels will also be near excellent values for precipitation development across northern locations. H85s will be around -10C for a majority of the event giving all snow to all locations that recieve precipitation. Snow will also fall during the nocturnal hours favoring snow accumulations widespread despite some warmer ground surface temperatures. This will be a moderate to high impact event thanks to the amount of travelers for New Years Eve with routes impacted such as interstate 80, route 5, interstate 81, and the Pennsylvania turnpike. The majority of the precipitation will be over by early Wednesday morning. Behind the clipper will be a much colder airmass with H85s dropping to near -20C at the NY/PA border. Winds will also become gusty as clipper bombs at near 988mb and lower off of Cape Cod up through the Gulf of Maine. Lake effect snow will also develop behind the system with a 310-320 trajectory gradually becoming a due north 360 trajectory ahead of a ridge/high pressure moving in from the Midwest. A few Huron-Erie streamers could develop for a short period on Wednesday adding to snow totals across northwestern Pennsylvania and the Laurel Highlands with some spots receiving up to 4inches of pure lake effect snow. Again fluff factor will be quite high, so snow will be squeezed out of relatively low moisture content. High pressure moves in for the coldest New Years Eve in several years with temperatures in the teens and single digits under a blustery northerly wind. No timeline will be issued for this event due to the short period of impact from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning.

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
This is an Alberta Clipper with marginal cold air in place for a mostly all snow event. Freezing rain/sleet/and plain rain is not likely in most all areas that receive QPF from this event. This is an all snow event.

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Moderate impacts due to high amount of holiday travelers.
2. Burst of snow possible during height of event.
3. Light to moderate snow accumulations.
4. Snow confined to northern Pennsylvania from I-80 north.
5. Quick event with rapidly moving shortwave.

Snow Map...

*Note areas south of 1-3inch line may see some coatings. Also I did take in account elevation so the boundaries between accumulations are not smooth.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Cold and windy with a few flurries.
Baltimore, MD- Cold and partly cloudy.
Washington, DC- Cold and partly cloudy, breezy.
Wilmington, DE- Cold and mostly cloudy with a few flurries.
Dover, DE- Cold and partly cloudy.
Cape May, NJ- Cold and cloudy with a few flurries, breezy.
Trenton, NJ- Cloudy with a trace of a few snow showers.
New York City, NY- Cloudy with light snow at times. 1-2inches of snow possible.
Poughkeepsie, NY- Light to moderate snow at times. Snow accumulations 3-6inches.
Binghamton, NY- Light to moderate snow with 3-6inches of snow.
Albany, NY- Light snow possible accumulating up to 2inches.
Hartford, CT- Moderate snow at times with 3-7inches possible.
Concord, NH- Light snow and windy. Snow accumulations 1-2inches.
Providence, RI- Moderate snow with accumulations 4-7inches.
Worcester, MA- Moderate snow possible with 4-7inches.
Boston, MA- Light to moderate snow with 3-6inches.
Nantucket, MA- Moderate snow with accumulations 3-5inches.
Hyannis, MA- Moderate to heavy snow at times. Snow accumulations 4-7inches.
Portland, ME- Light snow. Accumulations 1-2inches.
Bangor, ME- A few light snow showers with C-1inch of accumulation.
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Decent model consensus on this event, but by far the model that lead this entire track was the EURO. The EURO had a further south solution for quite a while along with showing more widespread QPF. The CMC then finally caught on with the southern solution followed lastly by the GFS. The GFS for the longest time showed a weak clipper moving across Northern New England. Then we began to slowly see a southern shift with each model run. For my forecast guidance I used the EURO track and GFS QPF shield. The EURO tracks the central vortex over the PA turnpike. All of the precipitation will fall north of the center which is being indicated. There seems to be a sharp cutoff to snow and non snow likely resulting in a few forecast busts. The NMM WRF HIRES 0z seems to have a good hold on the simulated radar for the height of the event across Pennsylvania...

Note the sharp cutoff between moderate snow and no snow positioned about 20miles north of the Pennsylvania turnpike. The short term NAM model seems to have a good hold on the track of this system across southern Pennsylvania, but there does appear to be some QPF errors in the model run likely enhancing all locations by about .1-.2inches too much. Overall seems models have a good hold on the system, but I am still noting southern shifts in each model run. I am not concerned about it, but it is just something minor to note.


After the storm...
Alright, well this is a pretty optimistic long term forecast. It appears we are entering the best period of Atlantic and Pacific correspondance for east coast storm tracks since the winter of 2002 and 2003. Now I can see this all falling apart, but I will save the scenario towards the end of the discussion. Let me first talk about the event for Friday, or should I saw what was the event Friday. For nearly a week we tracking what could have been an east coast snowstorm. We had developed a negative NAO with Greenland Blocking. But what we did not have was a favorable Pacific thanks to a very strong low plowing into the Pacific Northwest. This therefore led to the jet not digging in and phasing with the southern jet for a secondary low as the primary low heads off to the north. Placement of the 50/50 low also got a bit squashed to the north. Anyways it does not seem the linking will be made therefore the event will likely only favor a C-1inch of snow with snow showers while a low forms well off the coast barely even scraping the New England Maritimes.

Ok, now onto the more optimistic side of things. We are entering a two week pattern of very favorable teleconnections and setups. First off a negative NAO will be developing during this early to mid January time period with a high developing over Greenland. In fact during some periods the H85s will be above +0C. There has also been indications of blocking developing over the Hudson Bay and Davis Straights. The AO index has also been sharply headed negative. Now that leads to the possibility of two things. One is the cold is headed towards Asia with the lesser of the anomaly across North America. Or the coldest air heads over North America leaving Asia with a more modified airmass. It appears that the latter of the two scenarios is likely. There also appears to be a more favorable transition to a new MJO phase as we pull out of 4/5 and possibly into phase 6. Looking at January analogs this favors the cooler air stationed over the midwest and east coast. GFS operational and GFS ensembles are in good correspondance for this development along with the EURO operational and EURO ensembles. Now the question more or less turns to the Pacific. The Pacific has been in an highly unfavorable flow for us here in the east trying to get a non Great Lakes cutter of a storm. The GFS ensembles have finally come to the idea of a positive PNA development near +1 standard deviation around the 5-8th of January. But this is not set in stone by any means, as EURO and GFS have both questioned this development. One positive out of the Pacific is the momentum of the Alaskan Vortex positioning now across Canada delivering the United States colder air. Alaska has been having brutally cold air the last few days and weeks. When there is a strong Alaska anticyclone there has never been an east coast major snowstorm. The new positioning of this polar vortex will favor downstream troughing over the east coast. So then turns the question of West Coast ridging. Latest GFS/EURO 8-10 day means show beautiful ridge across the west with repositioned Polar Vortex and Hudson Bay blocking. Maps really look great, but can these models be taken seriously? They have been anything but consistent with previous events in December. The side of confidence that I am given is the wonderful agreement between all of the global models. Now what can really throw this setup off is the continued development of the cooling sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific cooling to nearly 1 deviation below normal. Yes that means a La Nina is already occuring although Climate Prediction Center is reluctant to classify it. But there is some optimism I suppose; it does not appear the affects towards the United States will not be as great as they were last year. It does not appear we will have to worry about the southeast ridge for at least the next two weeks. But down the road it may be of a concern. Also of concern is the QBO index which could inhibit ridging on west coast, but that remains to be seen. So what does that all mean for you?

Well it appears we are finally headed into a favorable storm track along the east coast. And during the winter time that means major winter storms. A pattern this favorable has not been modeled to this fullest since the winter of 02/03. There also appears to be an interesting split flow develop month which could favor the recently rare Miller A type storm that develops out of the Gulf of Mexico. Highs seem to be provided up in southern Canada to fuel the cold air with the Polar Vortex setting up over central Canada keeping the cold air continuosly funneling into the region. Blocking would develop to inhibit Great Lakes Cutters into secondary lows. But things could go completely wrong with the pattern if the Pacific does not cooperate or if the scenario does not become modeled as we get closer to the time period. The ENSO/SO could also provide issues. In any case I am looking for these as possible storm dates...

7/8... It seems that this situation is likely with a primary headed up through Great Lakes with secondary development off Carolina coast for the classic Miller B type storm. EURO/GFS have relatively similar scenarios. Blocking and a negative NAO appear to be in place but the ridging in west is a little questionable. Some places could see a significant ice storm as high should be in place in southern Canada. There is also the possibility of no secondary development putting us in the warm sector which going by the pattern of the last two/three winters; this makes this scenario quite likely.

9/10/11... This appears to hold the best potential for a pure east coast storm track and also be the third storm in the series under the blocking. Still very far out, but main concern for this event would be surpression which has been modeled by the GFS.

14/15... Another storm opportunity but yet too far out for any specifics.

In conclusion we have a great opportunity that appears to last through mid January. This too me seems to be probably the best potential to hold the largest snowstorm of season. That is not too say the other months won't be snowy, but this period has the best teleconnections modeled by the computer models in quite awhile. Still keep in mind how poorly the models have verified lately so keep hope high, but do not get overally excited, lol.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2008-2009 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.00inches
Monthly Total- 4.35inches
Seasonal Total- 10.45inches
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warning- 1
Freezing Rain Advisory- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23
Lowest Low Temperature- 10
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Snow - October 29 - Trace
First Snow on Ground - November 18 - Coating
Lake Effect Snow - November 21/22 - 6.00inches
Synoptic Snow - December 16 - 3.5inches


Winter Storm Discussion for January 6-7...
Surface analysis continues to show high pressure out in Indiana and moving northeastward quickly ahead of the next system. A nearly stalled frontal boundary is draped across the southeast causing its own assortment of problems. Latest radar returns show very light virga across the Middle Atlantic thanks to some warm air advection along with high moisture streaming in aloft. Clouds are beginning to thicken and will slowly lower through the night. But temperatures should be allowed to fall near freezing for many locations before coming to a halt. Then as the precipitation falls evaporational cooling with bring temperatures down into the 20s. Low pressure along stalled front will cause precipitation shield to slide to our south overnight while a new low pressure forms and sets sail towards the Great Lakes. This is a classic example why not to take teleconnections such as a negative NAO verbatum for an east coast storm track. Synoptics are much more than that. Low pressure will bring a cold front through Ohio Valley with a warm front likely located across Maryland for most of the storm. A weak anticyclone to our northeast will result in cold air damming along with some confluence from Canada. Warm air advections snows will break out by daybreak across the southern border counties already beginning to mix with sleet as H85s stay marginal near (-1C)-(-3C). Rising warm air aloft from the southwest will result in a changeover to mixed precipitation for southern areas likely by midday possibly early evening while the north then deals with a bit more snow on the order of 2-4inches. Surging PWATs a few deviations above normal will provide decent Gulf Moisture. There will likely be a weak secondary low forming along the Atlantic Coast which will only help to enhance the cold air damming. Through Tuesday night freezing rain should be ongoing across much of Pennsylvania up to about 25miles north of I-80. By Wednesday morning a dry slot should enter much of the region meanwhile as the cold air damming finally loses the battle. By Wednesday afternoon colder air will work into the region causing any leftover precipitation to turn to a trace of snow. Final accumulations of snow... Look for a widespread 1-3inches from I-80 southward with some isolated amounts near 4inches particularily in the higher elevations. Across northern Pennsylvania amounts should be more on the order of 2-5inches. Sleet accumulations look to be moderate in a few areas with some areas across the I-80 corridor receiving 1-2inches of pure sleet. Freezing rain is the main threat with this storm likely giving areas from Wisconisco to Tower City to Hazleton to Mt. Pocono a pretty destructive ice storm. But overall many areas are likely to see .25inches of freezing rain with some areas near a half an inch. Again marginal temperatures may prove to bust parts of this storm system making ice storms likely the hardest storms to predict. Nowcasting will play a big role along with every tenth of a degree for temperatures. Stay tuned for another short update tomorrow morning to see if it is a go for this forecast. Have a wonderful evening!!!

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477. Zachary Labe
9:15 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Lol, rain gauge still frozen here with ice still all over the place. 32.6degrees here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
476. TheRasberryPatch
9:05 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
temp has been at 33.0 or slightly above since 1130am.
rain gauge showing 0.69" for the storm
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
475. Zachary Labe
9:05 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- I had ice covered roads back here. PENNDOT did quite a bit of pretreating and my local township even pretreated, but overall the roads weren't too bad. I think the December 07 storm gave them a scare.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
474. TheRasberryPatch
9:03 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
sounds like penndot did a nice job, blizz. i don't think this storm did much to tax them though. if my driveway this morning was just wet without any pretreatment, i find it hard to think that the roads were any worse, at least around here.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
473. Zachary Labe
8:52 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- I do think the 12z EURO/12z GFS was a nice blend for forecast of this system.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
472. TheDawnAwakening
8:49 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Blizzard, the 18z NAM is still too far north. I like the 12z EURO idea, but the placement is too far north for all snow as some mix to rain will occur if the 12z EURO was right.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3901
471. Zachary Labe
8:36 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
This blog is getting a bit old and dusty. I will have a new blog out which will focus on the clipper, but the only a few sections I will write in until Friday when confidence becomes higher on Friday night/Saturday event.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
470. Zachary Labe
8:25 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
PalmyraPunishment- Models in very good agreement for all snow accumulating Friday into Saturday!!! If only. Time for us all to monitor.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
469. PalmyraPunishment
8:19 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
PennNOT overachieved this time. We'll see if they can keep up the standard work!

So what's the next couple of events look like? I saw a GFS Snowmap for i think friday showing a nice 3-4 inch snowfall for the area. That would be nice.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
468. Zachary Labe
8:07 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Thanks for the reports. Here along Blue Mountain we had .25inches of freezing rain with significantly more up the mountain. It just rose above freezing here about 45minutes ago and is now 32.8degrees. Everything is still covered in ice though. PENNDOT and local township salt trucks did a great job in this storm I must say!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
467. Stanb999
1:31 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Good morning Blizzard,


Here we have about 1" of sleet on the ground. It started last night as sleet, Looks to have sleeted all night, and it's still sleeting now.

We have a ESE wind that is very gusty, But I'd say not more than 25MPH. The temp is 25F.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
466. jthal57
1:26 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Blizz-ended up with .2" of ice here. Roads passable this am, but many schools closed. Rain and 34F currently. Temps got above freezing about 2am
465. lawntonlookers
1:12 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
Good morning. Here in Lawnton we have about 1/8 inch of ice on the cars grass and trees. It has just started to rain harder and the temp is still at 32. Roads are not bad though. I will check back in latter.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
464. TheRasberryPatch
12:45 PM GMT on January 07, 2009
32.2F here. the driveway is not icy at all. I would assume the roads aren't so bad. the trees and bushes are full of ice though. ice sucks. just way too dangerous. give me snow vs. ice. ugh. even a strong man or woman can't stand up to an ice storm
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
463. Snowlover2010
11:00 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
32 here. and no school delay or cancellation. darn.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
462. Zachary Labe
10:36 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
aquak9- Thanks. It is pretty rough out there.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
461. aquak9
10:33 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
I just looked at the radar, Bliz. Ugh. Good luck.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25937
460. Zachary Labe
10:30 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
***Good morning all!!! It looks pretty icy out there, but we won't be able to see the full extent until daylight. 30.5degrees here still with moderate freezing rain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
459. shipweather
4:12 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
rain is steady here now. temp has remained at right about 29.3F. icing is occuring.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
458. TheDawnAwakening
3:49 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Good night Blizzard. I hope the trough sharpens and the storm curls as it hits the coast off of the Delmarva peninsula and slows down heading NEward. This clipper has a lot of potential if future runs begin a consensus further south.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3901
457. Zachary Labe
3:35 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Well last post of night. A few final thoughts... Temperatures are still marginal and may rise in some areas overnight. It is hard to pinpoint when the changeover will be, so some areas may see more ice than expected some may see much less, hard to say. Have a nice and safe night and I will be back early tomorrow morning!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
456. TheDawnAwakening
3:30 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
00z NAM looks pretty far north with the clipper this weekend as well, looking like the GFS. I think the EURO and UKMET have a better solution in terms of the teleconnections.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3901
455. PalmyraPunishment
3:23 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Quoting weathergeek5:


No what I do is says this storm is wimpy and things along that line. Hopefully it makes the storm angry and decides to form a Miller A nor'easter in the Gulf of Mexico then the storm will hug the coast putting our area in the heavy convective snow bands.


not bad. i think im going to try it my way first. im pretty brash (i tone it down a LOT on here.) and maybe if i call out nature as a whole -- we'll see some epic return.

if it doesn't work. i'll give your form a shot.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
454. Zachary Labe
3:21 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 24 hours
for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended
to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn spotters
and media for these reports. This summary is also available on our
home Page at weather.Gov/ctp

***********************storm total ice***********************

Location storm total time/date comments
ice of
(inches) measurement


Pennsylvania

... Cambria County...
Johnstown 0.25 920 PM 1/6 significant glazing

... Lancaster County...
Millersville trace 707 PM 1/6 trees and powerlines starting to ice up
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
453. Zachary Labe
3:20 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Temperature rise has now come to a stop here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
452. weathergeek5
3:17 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:


interesting theory. like lieutenant dan in "forest gump" during hurricane camille when he's on the crows nest unleashing a profanity laced diatribe challenging god.

i may give that a shot.


No what I do is says this storm is wimpy and things along that line. Hopefully it makes the storm angry and decides to form a Miller A nor'easter in the Gulf of Mexico then the storm will hug the coast putting our area in the heavy convective snow bands.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
451. PalmyraPunishment
3:14 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
going out on a short limb: power outages likely

it's really coming down now. it's incredibly icy out.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
450. weathergeek5
3:13 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
32 with freezing rain here in northern delaware.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
449. Zachary Labe
3:10 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Latest CTP update... ALREADY A 1/4" OF ACCRETION BEING REPORTED DOWN IN THE JST AREA
WHERE THE SFC TEMP IS 28 DEG. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LGT-MDT
RAIN EXPECTED...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME PRETTY SEVERE ICING
BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OUT.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
448. Zachary Labe
3:07 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
jthal57- Good evening!!! Good to hear from your up there. I just saw they made the upgrade.

PalmyraPunishment- It is coming down here pretty heavy now up to 28.8degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
447. PalmyraPunishment
3:05 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
so much for the pre-treated sidewalks. just saw 2 more people falling out here. it's like luge out here... only, not as humorous.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
446. PalmyraPunishment
2:58 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
nah blizz it's still a mix but more rain than snow. coming down pretty good. awaiting the heavy burst.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
445. jthal57
2:56 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Hey Blizz- long time...ice storm warning here...temps hold 29F with light frz rain, things are glazed over, waiting for that heavier batch of rain to come up this way...may not be pretty
444. Zachary Labe
2:56 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
PalmyraPunishment- Any snow there still? Looks like State College is getting some snow... Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
443. PalmyraPunishment
2:53 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
30.2 here.

just looked at the wundercast. calling for half an inch of ice tonite and another tenth tomorrow. oi!
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
442. Zachary Labe
2:53 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Temperature fluctuations always occur during ice storms because heavier precipitation pulls down the warmer air aloft. There is an extremely heavy burst of precipitation near Carlise which will help temperatures rise some more.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
441. JDinWPA
2:51 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Hey. the temp is above freezing now, 32.1 degrees. There's around .14" of soft ice covering everything. The icicles have not grown any.
440. Mason803
2:50 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
same here blizzard up to 28 now
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
439. TheRasberryPatch
2:50 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
same here blizz. now at 29.4F with dewpt the same. 100% RH. NE wind
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
438. PalmyraPunishment
2:50 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
snowlover, i'm sure eventually they'll freeze over. how large is the surface? has it been actively used? any antifreeze on the surface? (sorry, had to lol)

give it some time man. the storm has just begun
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
437. Zachary Labe
2:49 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Temperature rising a bit here about .4degrees likely due to heavier precipitation.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
436. Snowlover2010
2:48 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
driveway and road here is still mainly wet witha few icy patches. temp is 29. Will my driveway and the roads finally freeze over at some point?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
435. Mason803
2:47 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
rasberrypatch,

check your mail I sent a link of a rain gauge
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
434. TheRasberryPatch
2:43 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Mason - that will be a curious thing to see the results after the test of the rain gauges. I have a Davis which is pretty big, but it is also self tipping mechanism. The one nice thing is that all data is sent to the computer. I feel it is pretty accurate, but on weather during the winter it won't be.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
433. Zachary Labe
2:43 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
PalmyraPunishment- Really, I guess I will have to go look too, interesting. State College is reporting light snow.

cicadaknot- Yep, I use it all the time. I guess that is just the beginning of a busy night for emergency crews.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
432. cicadaknot
2:41 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
I don't know if anybody uses this, but in events like this one i love the spc mesoscale analysis page. It uses surface data combined with the ruc model to produce a wide range of data for every hour. Usually updated about 20mins past the hour.
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
BTW just heard a state police car calling for a tow over the scanner.
Member Since: July 17, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
431. PalmyraPunishment
2:41 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
interesting development: the rain has become a mix. i'm going to say a majority of it is snow.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
430. Zachary Labe
2:40 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
PalmyraPunishment- Moderate freezing rain and still 28degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
429. PalmyraPunishment
2:38 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
Quoting weathergeek5:


What I do is trash talk the storm (if it stays all snow).


interesting theory. like lieutenant dan in "forest gump" during hurricane camille when he's on the crows nest unleashing a profanity laced diatribe challenging god.

i may give that a shot.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
428. PalmyraPunishment
2:36 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
9:34 PM: It's almost as if Mr. Freeze had just arrived. Pre-treatment has lost. Freezing rain coming down moderately - 28 degrees still.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
427. Zachary Labe
2:33 AM GMT on January 07, 2009
weathergeek5- How's it going down there this evening?
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
80 °F
Scattered Clouds

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Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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