Warmth returns followed by a major storm down the road?

By: Zachary Labe , 10:51 PM GMT on December 26, 2008

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 12/26)
Good Friday evening!!! I want to first start off and hope that everyone had a wonderful Christmas! It is amazing that Christmas is already over, wow what a rush. Now onto New Years before the long, cold, and boring months of January, February, and March. This blog covers the period of weather from Friday the 27th to Thursday the 1st. Then towards the weekend a potential winter storm makes it's mark towards the Northeast. During early next week around the 30th or 31st I will likely issue my January Outlook with also my December verification.

So now we enter the new year. 2008 has come and gone with global impacts of a great variety. It is time for once again those New Year's resolutions, that we all know are never followed through, hehe. But in all honesty as many of us look forward to the new year, others sit depressingly looking at what horrible could go wrong with the new year. Truthfully the new year does mark a new you. It is a new beginning full of new opportunities. As the countdown at Time Square begins, let that mark the beginning of a fantastic tomorrow! Weatherwise, there are a many of things to look forward to. More thunderstorms, blinding snowstorms, and flooding rains are likely eyeing up our region as they always do. After coming off of what really was a quiet summer in terms of severe weather, it seems that once again the threat is there. As a whole Harrisburg is really not known for it's severe weather. While events occur such as the Flood of 72, Blizzard of 96, Tornado Outbreak of 04, and Hurricane Isabel of 02, but still these events are found far between each other by nearly every five years. Many parts of the country deal with blizzards, tornadoes, and hurricane threats every single year and what seems to be every single month during some seasons. But the one remarkable thing I can say about Pennsylvania weather is the variety and seasonability that we are so lucky to experience. You can find every type of weather in the state nearly every year in every season. So what will the weather bring our area for this coming year? No answer can be given, but I know for sure that I will be here to track it for another year and I look forward to everyone else here along with me tracking these systems. Have a wonderful New Years!!!

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 12/26)
High pressure located over northern Maine and the Canadian Maritimes will be departing to the east giving way to a strong southwesterly flow with rising heights. Warm air floods in across the Northeast by late Friday night with any shallow cold air being displaced now farther to the north. QPF initially will be very light generally a few hundredths of an inch. Then by Saturday for the first time in quite a while H85s will rise above 10C statewide across Pennsylvania as southwesterly flow takes over with winds occasionally breezy on the ridgetops in the Laurel Highlands. 2m surface temperatures look to rise near 60degrees across southern Pennsylvania with 50s elsewhere. Snow pack will greatly melt. Developing low pressure in Midwest will head up through the Great Lakes as a 996mb low and bring a cold front eastward across the Ohio Valley towards Tuesday. Flow generally just brings marginally light precipitation for much of Saturday with QPF below .1inches for the most part. Cold front comes crashing through for Sunday with a cold front generally drying up as it heads eastward. H85s will dive from 10C to about 0C in about a 12hour period. Other than that front generally has weak dynamics with little QPF up to .25inches as a max. 500mb jet develops a more zonal flow to start the next week with a Pacific orientation airmass keeping temperatures around normal values. Arctic air will be hard to find anywhere across the CONUS. A ripple in the northern jet drops south out of Canada with maximum vortex lifting across New York State. Dynamics are lacking so shortwave will only generally bring reinforcing cooler air with H85s dropping to -10C across parts of northern Pennsylvania. Another disturbance drops down from Canada towards Wednesday with a bit better dynamics and a colder origin of air. Light warm air advection snows may break out across the State, but with QPF below .1inch, there will be little to no snow accumulation. Colder airmass moves in with H85s near -10C statewide. High pressure builds over region for Thursday and Friday with below normal temperatures setting the stage for a potential weekend storm.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Weekly Forecasts" (Updated 12/26)
Saturday- Statewide it appears Saturday will be a dreary day with overcast skies and occasional drizzle. But I can report that warm temperatures will be found across the region under a strong southwesterly flow. On occasion breezy conditions with gusts up to 25mph may occur on the southern facing ridgetops. Some light rain will occur at times throughout the day with a few areas of freezing drizzle across the higher elevations. Precipitation amounts though will generally be under a tenth of an inch and temperatures will be above freezing by early morning. Highs will be very mild approaching some records in a few areas with highs in the 60s across southern Pennsylvania south of the turnpike, highs in the 50s should be expected elsewhere. Saturday night it appears drizzle and fog will be found statewide with locally dense fog across the areas with remaining snow cover. Rainfall amounts will be less than a few hundredths of an inch. Lows Saturday night will be extremely mild and near 20-25degrees above normal with them in the low 50s across southern Pennsylvania and 40s elsewhere.

Sunday- The cold front will be approaching from the west in the Ohio Valley sparking some rain showers statewide. High temperatures will once again be well above normal with them similar to Saturday highs likely in the 60s in the south and upper 50s elsewhere. I would also watch for a few areas of thunder to develop as some unstable air works into western areas and all southern areas. Rainfall amounts will generally be up to .25inches with lesser amounts towards eastern Pennsylvania as the cold front dries up. Sunday night the front will pass through the rest of the state with rain showers coming to an end. A few snow showers may linger up in northwestern Pennsylvania but little to no accumulation is expected. Lows will fall steadily through the night back to seasonal lows in the mid 20s across the northwest to low 30s across the far southeast. Some gusty winds will be found in the early evening behind the cold front gusting up to 40mph at times, but overall impacts should be below advisory criteria.

Monday- High pressure remains parked over region with sunshine prevailing statewide. A few snow showers in the morning are possible, though, across the Erie Plateau with snow accumulations up to a half an inch possible. Temperatures will be much cooler than they were Sunday, but still above normal as to seasonal values. Highs will be in the upper 40s across southern areas with low 40s across northern areas. Monday night will feature clear skies and calm winds giving way to radiational cooling. Still with dewpoints relatively high, I find it hard to see temperatures getting very cold. Lows will drop into the low to mid 20s across northern valleys with upper 20s found elsewhere.

Tuesday- A dry disturbance drops down from Canada on Tuesday giving way to sunny skies to start the day followed by afternoon clouds. Little in the way of precipitation is expected other than a few flurries across the northwest. Highs will be cooler back down towards more seasonable readings with highs in the low to mid 30s across the north and low 40s across the south. Winds will turn out of the northwest bringing in colder air for Tuesday evening. Tuesday night will feature cloudy skies across the state under a northwest flow. Lows will be back to normal lows will lows in the teens across the northern mountains to mid 20s across southern areas.

Wednesday- An Alberta Clipper along with a cold front works its way down into the region with the center staying to our north in New York State. None the less some light snows will break out across the state with even light rain mixing in for southern areas. Generally snow accumulations will be less than one inch and rain totals will only wet the ground and be reported as a trace. Cloudy skies will prevail under a stratus deck. Flow will turn more northwesterly as weak cold front passes through with another slightly colder airmass. A few lake effect snow showers look to form across northwestern areas with accumulations up to one inch in the snowbelts. Wednesday night high pressure moves into control ending any residual snow showers giving way to clear skies with light northwesterly winds preventing temperatures from dropping to low. Still low temperatures will drop in the teens across the north to mid 20s across the south.

Thurday- High pressure remains in control statewide with sunshine prevailing. Temperatures will average a degree or two below normal with highs in the upper 20s across the north to upper 30s across southern areas. Winds will be light out of the west. Thursday night clear skies with light winds and low dewpoints will give way to great radiational cooling conditions. Lows will drop into the low to mid teens across the north with upper teens to low 20s across the south. A few clouds may approach the region from the south ahead of the next storm system.

"Current River Ice Reports and Ski Conditions" (Updated 12/26)
Interestingly enough the other day the Susquehanna River had moderate ice traveling down it with it in the form of sheet ice. Climatology suggests this is a relative rarity for December standards for southern branches of the river to have moderate icing. There was also a river-water rescue the other day during all of the ice jams as a boats motor was reported stalled out near Rockville. Fortunately everything turned out ok. But this is a constant reminder that waterways in the winter time are very dangerous. With the coming warm spell, any waterway with ice still on it will melt so please take caution around the melting ice even across northern areas. Ice fishing does not look possible this coming week. Colder weather does move in for the end of next week. As for ski reports, ski conditions will develop to the poor level for this weekend as rain and very mild temperatures overtake the region. There will be significant snow melt across all ski resorts. Towards the start of next week conditions will improve and snow making will be allowed to resume. Natural snow looks to be hard to come by this week with only about one inch of natural snow found up near Erie and Bradford, maybe a dusting across the Laurel Highlands. Chances of snow do increase though towards next weekend. Looking at the pattern down the road it does seem relatively stormy so period of snow will be possible in early January. Overall ski conditions will remain from poor to slow throughout the entire week. Temperatures will only fall below freezing during the night time low temperatures. Thursday will be the coldest day of this term.

-Link to official reports page from NWS...Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions...Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Windchills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 12/26)
Little to no chances of lake effect snow this week as flow generally remains more zonal and westerly. Water temperatures generally remain in the 30s across Lake Erie with some near 32degree readings towards Toledo, Ohio in the more shallow part of the lake. Ice reports remain to be very few across the Lake Erie region. So it seems that we still have a while to go before the lake effect machine cuts off for Pennsylvania. Best chances of any lake effect precipitation will be late Sunday into early Monday after cold front moves through region. But airmass in generally Pacific with H85s only near -5C, which is not cold for this time of year nor unstable enough for widespread snow bands. Winds will also be light near the 270 trajectory out of the due west. But none the less a few scattered snow showers may occur in Erie County with a coating to one inch in a few isolated spots, nothing more than a mere nuisance for that region. Then high pressure moves in for midweek before a disturbance moves down for Tuesday into Wednesday in the form of a clipper. Flow turns a bit west-northwest along with colder air near -10C 850s. But high pressure quickly moves in region by Wednesday night. Still a few cells of lake effect snow showers may form in some northwestern snowbelts dropping up to 1inch of snow maybe 1-3inches on the Erie County Plateau. Towards weekend high pressure remains in control. So all in all very few lake effect snow concerns to worry ourselves with as northern jet stream remains fairly stable unlike the past week or two. Much of the ice along with the lake shores and freezing mist will generally melt in the next few days as a two-day mild spell moves over the region. Cold air will be hard to come by, but that goes by your definition of cold. Highs will be in the 30s across the snowbelts, but to me that is not cold for this time of year for what it could be with highs in the teens and twenties. Seasonable seems to rule the roost the week.

"Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Lake Erie Water Temperature"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 12/26)
Very difficult long term section for forecasting as model variables have been difficult in showing trends. January is looking highly volatile in terms of temperature trends. It does appear a cold regime will make its way back towards the eastern CONUS, but for how long. The NAO is showing signs of heading sharply negative along with some favorable Greenland Blocking. GFS is been highly advertising building heights over Greenland with a ridge, but during the past few model runs it has been backing off with its solution. The Pacific remains the volatile region which could offset the primed Atlantic. PNA index is in question whether it will rise positive, but GFS ensembles insist it will towards early to mid January. MJO phase also appears to be shifting during the next 20 days to a more favorable trough phase for the east coast of either phases 5 or 6. The AO index is also headed highly negative during the early January time period. Now what has me worried about the pattern is the considerable cooling of the sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific putting us back into a La Nina state. Now I was forecasting a return of a weak La Nina status, but it does seem the cooling is a bit more than first anticipated by many including the Climate Prediction Center. The implications of this Nina development may really cause some issues down the road with southeast ridge development and western troughs. Still though, those impacts remain to be seen. Now back to the closer long term. A storm is progged across somewhere east of the Mississippi towards the weekend. Greenland blocking and a negative NAO look to remain in place along with a high over southern Canada. Typically that would mean east coast snowstorm, but latest models runs are increasingly showing an inland cutter. Still though I think it is just part of the wild swings in the models especially this far out. A miller B solution looks very possible with the primary weakening near the Ohio River giving way to secondary developing over northern North Carolina and heading up coast delivering a nice ol' winter storm, but confidence remains slim with any solution at this point. EURO is showing wild shifts with lows by near 100mi for each run. GFS had been consistently showing a coastal low solution, but now the last two runs are towards inland runner. It seems to me that a more coastal solution makes more sense as long as the Pacific cooperates. In any case a major winter will likely impact parts of the Northeast for next week. I will have model run updates throughout the coming week.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (December)
So here it is the first month of the meteorological winter, and quite hard to believe at that. It feels like we were just watching severe thunderstorms role across the heartland and hurricanes roar across the Gulf of Mexico. But now it is our season for extreme weather; winter storms. Looking back at my November Outlook I called for normal to below normal temperatures with normal precipitation. That is very close to what actually happened and with the temperature department I nailed it spot on. Temperatures for the first half of the month were well above normal and by the second week temperatures plummeted to the coldest temperatures we had seen in November in quite a long time. Temperatures average below normal by a few degrees, but it could have been an even bigger anomaly if we had not seen that very warm outbreak in the beginning of the month. Snowfall I called for normal snowfall to above normal snowfall, and many areas across Pennsylvania are running 150% above normal in the snowfall department. The only area really lacking snowfall is in the Lehigh Valley where they have only seen a few coatings, even the Philadelphia snow season is starting off with a bang. Some areas in the snow belts near Erie have seen some of the snowiest weather in November in decades. Precipitation as a whole though was slightly below normal to normal in most areas. It seems we have been caught in a somewhat drier pattern lately in comparison to other years, still though we are far from a drought. So for December here is what I see…

Temperature- For quite a few months as far back as August, December was looking to be an extremely cold weather in comparison to normal. Now as we approach December, very little has changed in that regard. I am forecasting below normal temperatures across the entire state. Now the anomaly will not be extreme, but it will be enough for a couple of degrees below normal as a whole. I am expecting very cold weather for first week or two of December, before a more rollercoaster type pattern with cold followed by warmth. Then for the end of the month I think the coldest air moves over the Northeast with the coldest weather possibly of the whole winter. There are teleconnective signs of a decent negative NAO that would favor deep troughs over the east coast. But there are a few discrepancies with the models with some favoring a western Atlantic ridge and warm air up the east coast. But I still think the models think we are in a stronger La Nina pattern than we actually are. Just recently the climate CFS model which was forecasting a strong La Nina again, has now backed up to a weak La Nina which is more reasonable. I must also mention that now the CFS shows below normal temperatures across Pennsylvania for every meteorological winter month. All in all I think December will favor below normal temperatures with even some more favorable blocking scenarios towards mid to late month.

Precipitation- Lately we seem to have been in a drier spell, so I find it hard to forecast above normal precipitation. So my forecast calls for normal precipitation with above normal snowfall. Looking at all of the global models, the ECMWF, GGEM, and GFS they all forecast a much stormier weather pattern starting the second week in December and lasting for quite a while. The northern jet seems to become the focal point of all the weather with storms even coming into the northern US Pacific coast and traveling transient across the nation and out to sea in the Middle Atlantic. At times there may be phasing between the northern and southern jet, which could lead to some strong winter storms across the central and eastern US. I also believe the pattern favors many Alberta clippers in which some of them could even be Saskatchewan screamers. Lake effect machine may end towards later in the month as Lake Erie may freeze over this winter, especially with how the pattern is looking. Warm air advection snows are also possible.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Winter 2008-2009 forecast... Link.
-Winter 2008-2009 forecast update... Link.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2008-2009 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.00inches
Monthly Total- 4.35inches
Seasonal Total- 10.45inches
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Heavy Snow Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Snow Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23
Lowest Low Temperature- 10
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Snow - October 29 - Trace
First Snow on Ground - November 18 - Coating
Lake Effect Snow - November 21/22 - 6.00inches
Synoptic Snow - December 16 - 3.5inches

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93. Zachary Labe
10:51 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
Snowlover2010- Not sure. Basically I am at the lowest confidence level I could be at for a storm only a few days away. The GGEM, ECMWF, DGEX, UKMET, and GFS all have basically a non-event. Can it change? Probably, but something we need to be concerned about. GFS does have tendency to lose a storm in the days 3-5 period too, and 12z EURO synoptics did not seem physically possible. So I guess we all need to sit back and monitor.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
92. Snowlover2010
10:47 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
Hey Bliz could this 18z GFS have just been affected by its SE bias. I mean especially since throughout all the runs of the storm. The 18z GFS has always made a huge jump SE. Basically I am saying the 18z may be right about SE movement, but it could just be exaggerated.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
91. Zachary Labe
10:43 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
TheDawnAwakening- I would go with 3-7inches at this point. I think just south of Worcester will be the hot spot, but your area should do fine too. Looking at some of the guidance it has -10C over you with the second half of the precipitation which produces some nice snow growth making it definitely cold enough. Right now your biggest concern should be boundary layer temperatures.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
90. TheDawnAwakening
10:41 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
Blizzard too bad its only the fantasy period. I think the locals are just being conservative for this clipper right now and they don't want any busts now, and thats understable, but Tim Kelly from NECN has to be the most conservative on NECN. 2-5" with generally 3-4" reported. WHDH says 5-8" for Boston, MA points further west into Worcester, MA and Franklin, MA as well.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
89. Zachary Labe
10:38 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
Look at this beauty for later in the month on the 10th. Just another 18z GFS fantasy...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
88. Zachary Labe
10:06 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
O golly 18z GFS takes 12z EURO route with a more split flow and progressive run with less digging. Basically we are back to square one with confidence level...

Still though the low in the Pacific that is going to crash into the Northwest, is in an area of very few meteorological soundings. Until we can get a feel for that low and the affects for the slight ridge in west, we will not know a solution with this eastern event for Friday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
87. Zachary Labe
8:53 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
PalmyraPunishment- Finally we have mainly an east coast storm track with the only low in the midwest being a clipper, even though it does act as a primary low. I really do not think we have to worry about wintry mixes. We have to worry about QPF and whether or not we get any snow. Dryslot? In any case it is still very early. On another note the clipper for Wednesday is progged a bit further south with EURO and GFS QPF indicating a coating to half inch of snow for our area followed by bitter winds for New Years Eve. Looking at long term GFS and EURO, a cold snap is definitely looming for later this month along with what appears the best looking teleconnections in the Atlantic and maybe Pacific since the winter of 02/03.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
86. PalmyraPunishment
8:28 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
greetings, children!

i have but a few minutes here. have been lurking for minutes at a time the past couple of days, and will continue to do so until hopefully the 3rd.

quite a weird series of events weatherwise the past couple of days. that fog the other night followed by a brief warm up and rapid cool down was pretty epic. driving in the fog wasn't fun -- but it's not like it was "life and death". no, that was Interstate 81 for a brief period on the 24th.

looks like things may be taking shape for our first true east coast storm in quite some time (please, god no "wintry mix of death" this time.) of course -- by the time i get the next opportunity to look at the models, everything will have changed and it'll be GLC time. hope not.

pretty seasonable today -- not too warm, certainly not cold. i'm ready for an extended cold snap however. so some bitter cold will be welcome.

i'll be around soon. maybe this evening, hopefully.

think snow!
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
85. Zachary Labe
8:23 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
Snowlover2010- I have this feeling our area will get dry slotted, but we will see. We should definitely see a little snow, but I am in question too how much. Chances are fairly decent especially for Lancaster, though, to see some significant snowfall. Stay tuned.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
84. Snowlover2010
8:19 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
Hey bliz, think I could see a significant snow ac Fri?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
83. Zachary Labe
8:17 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
Good afternoon all!!! A few chances of snow this week along with bitter cold for those out New Years Eve.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
82. TheDawnAwakening
6:28 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
Thanks Blizzard. I will check back later for the 18z NAM.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
81. Zachary Labe
6:06 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
TheDawnAwakening- Hehe, usually I am downplaying your snowfall. I did note this the other day... Looks like you have a pretty good chance for snow. With a developing coastal/clipper you could see some enhancement. Hopefully, though, your boundary layer will be cool enough.

So I can see where he is coming from. I am using the EURO model track traveling across Pennsylvania putting your area definitely on the colder side of things. For now I am sticking with a moderate accumulation of snow for your area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
80. TheDawnAwakening
5:56 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
Wow I like it how Sully is down playing and you are excited about our prospects for snow are. How is the Friday storm looking?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
79. Zachary Labe
5:31 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
TheDawnAwakening- I think the main event for you will be the clipper and not the second storm. Honestly 10inches is not out of the question. Snow growth in upper levels in fantastic and clippers have the tendency to overproduce.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
78. TheDawnAwakening
5:23 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
Blizzard, I would like to see this trend continue further southeast for us on the coast east of I95 corridor.

As for the clipper the NAM is printing out .5 to .75" of precip for us on the eastern MA coastline and with a 20:1 snow to liquid ratio we could be talking 10 to 12" of snow right?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
77. Zachary Labe
4:36 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
GFS continues the idea of developing the secondary farther south off the coast of Virginia. Run is also a bit colder and has snow for all locations in Pennsylvania, even Philadelphia verbatum this run...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
76. Zachary Labe
4:22 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
TheDawnAwakening- I agree, though I think that is part due to holiday travelers being away. Looks like a great snow for southern Massachusetts with several inches of snow possible up to 6inches in some spots. There is a great dendritic growth section over southern New England along with a great fluff factor of ratios near 20:1.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
75. TheDawnAwakening
4:15 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
I wasn't just talking about you Blizzard. In general its been overlooked. I was just wondering how we could be affected by the clipper for New Year's Eve?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
74. Zachary Labe
2:30 PM GMT on December 29, 2008
onoweather- Yep a very good chance of snow for our area.

upweatherdog- A pattern change is coming and it seems to favor east coast storm tracks.

TheDawnAwakening- The reason I have not talked much about it, is because it won't really affect PA too much other than some accumulations in the northern part of the state. Though I do have to monitor it's southern trends.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
73. TheDawnAwakening
4:53 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
Blizzard I think the clipper storm is being overlooked and if its far enough south and strengthens quicker, this one could be our surprise storm for many.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
72. upweatherdog
4:44 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
Models show 2 miller-type B storms this week. The one after New Years could be a big one.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1371
71. onoweather
4:43 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
hey blizz,
Looks like we got a nice chance for some snow this weekend, i hope everything comes together.
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
70. Zachary Labe
4:14 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
0z GFS out and shows another more coastal solution, but it does not tap in the Gulf Moisture and we loose the rapid intensification. Still many areas pick up a widespread 2-5inches of across much of Pennsylvania particularily in the eastern half.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
69. TheDawnAwakening
4:12 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
Thanks Blizzard.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
68. Zachary Labe
1:52 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
TheDawnAwakening- Looks like you have a pretty good chance for snow. With a developing coastal/clipper you could see some enhancement. Hopefully, though, your boundary layer will be cool enough.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
67. TheDawnAwakening
12:55 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
Taunton NWS is starting to like our clipper chances, especially snow chances for the MA pike region and points north. Right now the EURO is most favorable for Southern New England region with mostly snow for us.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
66. Zachary Labe
12:42 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
sullivanweather- Interesting synoptics beginning to setup starting this weekend through mid January, at least evident on the GFS that is.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
65. Zachary Labe
12:37 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
sullivanweather- They were up in the lower 40s for most of Saturday, but they did get some radiational cooling to drop temperatures. Yesterday here it was steady around 37-39degrees through midnight along with dense fog.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
64. sullivanweather
12:31 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
I was rather surprised this morning when writing up my blog to see State College at 28°F. Not often you see a -2°C surface temp with a +13°C 850mb temp.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
63. Zachary Labe
12:24 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
sullivanweather- Good evening!!! Relatively speaking the warm-up was short-lived down here too especially considering NWS forecasts. We only had 9hours above 49degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
62. sullivanweather
12:19 AM GMT on December 29, 2008
We still got a good 2-3" snowcover here.

The inversion that held over us really helped to insulate it from the warmth. Then today the warmup was so short-lived (dewpoints dropped back below 30°F by 3pm) not much of the snow melted today.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
61. Zachary Labe
11:34 PM GMT on December 28, 2008
Meteograms are out. Friday through Saturday storm prints out 6inches of snow for Harrisburg using 10:1 ratio. But looking at bufkit data, ratios would likely be 15:1 verbatum the 18z run... Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
60. Zachary Labe
10:21 PM GMT on December 28, 2008
WeatherBobNut- Thanks! I have a tiny patch of snow from where I shoveled in the shade still left, lol. The 3rd storm looks pretty good on the 12z UKMET, CMC, EURO and now 18z GFS. But still previous GFS runs today were not favorable. This should be an exciting week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
59. WeatherBobNut
10:19 PM GMT on December 28, 2008
Hi Blizz, I think the models will toss the 3rd storm around right up until Wednesday.
All snow is gone from my yard. Had a high here of 57 today. It felt nice.

Excellent blog, I'll ttysoon.

-Weather Bob
58. Zachary Labe
10:19 PM GMT on December 28, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- We just had a beautiful sunset. Now it is dark. Looks like that is the last of the warm weather for quite a while.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
57. TheRasberryPatch
10:15 PM GMT on December 28, 2008
temps have started to fall and the winds have shifted to the NW. i can see blue sky.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
56. Zachary Labe
10:14 PM GMT on December 28, 2008
Beauty of an 18z run GFS... Snow as far south as the entire Mason-Dixon line including western Philadelphia city suburbs.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
55. Zachary Labe
9:50 PM GMT on December 28, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Down to 53degrees here.

Snowlover2010- I am taking this storm one day at a time, but I do firmly believe the GFS was in lalala land today with the 12z run. Physics does not support a bombing low over the central Appalachians. I live the EURO solution and I have been believing that this is the best chance for a widespread significant snow somewhere across the northeast. Stay tuned here!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
54. Snowlover2010
7:40 PM GMT on December 28, 2008
Hey Bliz what are your thoughts on Friday? esp after the 12z Euro coastal storm.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
53. TheRasberryPatch
7:32 PM GMT on December 28, 2008
temp is 62F with winds out of the SW
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
52. TheRasberryPatch
5:55 PM GMT on December 28, 2008
hasn't moved through here yet. temp 63F and winds still SW
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
51. Zachary Labe
5:42 PM GMT on December 28, 2008
Well the front just blew through here and dropped the temperature back into the 50s. So much for all of the warmth.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Front now moving through central Pennnsylvania.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
it looks like this front is moving pretty fast.

i am at 62F with the barometer falling rapidly and the winds out of the SSW with a ten min average of 12mph
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
wow that is a quick rise in temps!
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Front moving through west-central Pennsylvania. Look at the temperature difference in one hour for Erie, PA...

8am...Light Rain Fog/Mist and Windy 41

7am...Mostly Cloudy and Windy 65
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
weathergeek5- Just shot upto 56degrees here!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
It is 60 here. Quite a temp contrast!!
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Looks like fog has cleared across region. 47degrees here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
weathergeek5- Looks to plow through your area by mid to late afternoon.

TheDawnAwakening- Yep too far west for your area for snow. I would also be watching the clipper up your way New Years Eve and maybe development of norlun trough.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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