Wednesday storm thoughts for 14-15th...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:27 PM GMT on January 06, 2008

Share this Blog
0
+

"Afternoon thoughts"
Good January afternoon. For Thursday things quiet down all in preparation for the next front that will come through this Friday. This will be a stronger front, that could pose some problems in terms of mix precipitation in the far north. The NAM model shows it really cold with mixing as far south as I80. But for now I like the GFS solution, with a little mixing in the extreme north. There will not be to many flooding issues as most of the snowpack is gone, though rainfall could be heavy. Possibly over 1inch can be expected. The mix of precipitation should not cause too many problems. Then things clear out completely by Friday night with much more seasonable air.

"Short Term"
Ok, this short term is devoted to all the weather events this weekend that will lead up to the 14-15th storm. For saturday it appears that temperatures will be getting back to normal with highs in the 30s statewide. The real colder air is going to move in for Saturday night and Sunday ahead of the real storm. Alot of ingredients are there for this storm.
1. High pressure to north of storm(in Canada).
2. Contrasting airmasses of real warmth and cold.
3. Strong pattern shift.
4. Above normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures.
5. Strong gulf flow.
6. No low pressure heading up west of Appalachians.
7. 992mb pressure possible, off of the coast of Cape Cod.
8. High pressure will slow movement of storm.
9. NAO-Neutral to negative.
10. Cold air with eastern trough will push the storm just far enough off the coast to affect many people with snow.
These are the top reasons I could come up with to support the storm. Sunday appears to be cloudy and cool with snow approaching southern PA by noon.
Current Radar...
Current Radar...

"Long Term"
This long term is devoted now to the 14-15th storm. But real quick, for the long term after the storm. It appears it stays cold with more possible snowstorms. I see no warmup in sight after this one. Ok, now on to the storm. First off I want to start off by saying that even though the storm is getting closer, I still do not think any of us have a better idea than yesterday or the day before then on this storm. The GFS still shows a flat wave heading out to sea and some of the other models such as the EURO show a big coastal storm. I think that the GFS will gain a concensus soon. It is hard to say what is going to happen with this storm. I would be interested to hear everyone thoughts on this system. My thoughts are that it heads up the coast and areas west of I95 see snow. So for today I want to hear everybodies thoughts and tomorrow I will update fully on new updates on the potential storm.
Outlook for Coastal Storm...
"Subject to Change"

Current NAO...
NAO...
Notice the negative trend.


"Just to throw out there"

I think we should throw out the recent 12z run of the GFS. I do not think this is the solution of the storm. All of my forecasts made today are based off of several models including the 6z GFS. This is a similar solution to what I think will happen.

"Regional Forecasts" (Wednesday Night)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Windy with clear skies.(WestnorthWest). Low 32.

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Winds becoming calmer.(WestnorthWest). Low 31.

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Windy.(WestnorthWest). Low 36.

4. Central- (State College)-
Clear skies. Low 30.

5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Partly cloudy. Low 28.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Partly cloudy. Low 29.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Mostly clear skies. Low 26.

January Outlook
Well already it is January 3rd and it seems like the holidays flew by. Anyway it is time to look at the monthly outlook. Overall it appears temperatures on average will be around .5-1degree below normal when the month comes to an end. Periods of arctic air and somewhat mild air will cause only a minor below average temperature. There will be though times of very warm conditions, especially from the 6-11th of the month. Then there will be cold times like the first few days in January and the last 2-3weeks in January. Precipitation should come out well above normal. We are in a very active weather pattern due to the La Nina especially. Storms seem very frequent throughout the month. Snowfall will probably be above normal across much of the state except the far southeast. About 1-4inches above normal looks likely. So overall it appears to be a relatively cold January with normal to above normal snowfall. I know this does not agree with other January outlooks by Accuweather or NOAA, but I still believe it will end up being overall cold. Those weather services seem to be overestimating the warm air from the La Nina. They predicted a warm December and it ended up being colder with alot of snow in some areas. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this month plays out. So stay warm!!!


***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.

Regional Map...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 146 - 96

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

146. Zachary Labe
8:29 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
REMINDS ME OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EAST COAST STORM OF 12 FEBRUARY 2006. IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE IS GOING TO BE ALONG THE COAST.

Finally the nws sees the potential storm, the February storm they mentioned produced up to 20inches of snow in parts of southern PA. Also pops are now at all snow and 50%for harrisburg.

This is good news for us snowlovers.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
145. Zachary Labe
8:19 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
forecast discussions for longterm sometimes make me laugh.

Also my local weatherman for harrisburg says that it will be 46degrees with sunshine for monday. What are anybodys thoughts on this?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
144. PalmyraPunishment
1:40 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
man, this storm has been a roller coaster... im glad none of your heads have exploded yet haha
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
143. sullivanweather
11:33 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
Blizzard,

I stood awake just to watch that model come out before going to bed. Glad I made that decision...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
142. Bonedog
11:32 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
at least they are finally talking about the system.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
141. Bonedog
11:31 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
forcast discussion from PHI...

they are a funny bunch I tell ya

WHILE THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM HAVE SHIFTED EWD WITH THE SUN NGT
SYSTEM, THE OP GFS REMAINS THE SERN OUTLIER. THE SOUND OF THE GFS
(TRUCK) BACKING UP CAN BE HEARD IF WE WERE TO COMPARE LAST NGT/S 00Z
RUN WITH TNGT/S ALTHOUGH IT STILL DOES NOT HAVE PCPN REACHING OUR
AREA EMPHASIZING TUE/S CLOSED LOW EVENT INSTEAD. THE CAN GGEM/UKMET
AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST PCPN GETTING TO ALL
OR PART OF OUR CWA. THAT`S WHY WE CONT TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS
IN. MY SON KEEPS ON ASKING ME THAT GREAT PHILOSOPHICAL QUESTION THAT
HAS GONE ON THROUGH THE GENERATIONS: DAD WHEN IS IT GOING TO SNOW?
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF RUN WOULD HAVE ME ANSWER NEVER AGAIN, THIS MODEL
SUITE OFFERS A BIT MORE OPTIMISM ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE HAVING THIS
CONVERSATION IN THE POCONOS OR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
140. Zachary Labe
11:27 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
Forecast discussion from state college...

SUN NITE/MONDAY...00Z ECMWF NOW TRENDING TOWARD ENSEMBLE SOLUTION
OF OTHER MED RANGE MODELS...KEEPING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVES UNPHASED. ALTHOUGH EAST COAST STORM APPEARS
UNLIKELY...WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SNOW SHWRS AS UPPER
LVL TROF SWINGS THRU SUN NITE AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHWRS
APPEAR POSSIBLE TUE/WED...MAINLY MTNS...AS NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THRU. NO ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. TEMPS
LIKELY TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
139. Zachary Labe
11:23 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
sullivanweather- did you see the 6z gfs?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
137. Zachary Labe
11:18 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
Yes it sure does, southern Pennsylvania would get crushed by snow, though our local media and nws say just flurries.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
136. Snowlover2010
11:17 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
This new 06 GFS looks good for a nice snowstorm.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
135. Zachary Labe
11:01 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
ITS BACK on the 6z GFS with alot of people seeing snow. My recent nws discussion in state college says the storm will go way southeast of the area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
134. PalmyraPunishment
2:06 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
gentlemen,

we're still 4 days out... plenty of time for everything to change, let's hold up on the enthusiasm and/or deflation for about 2 days, eh? haha

think snow
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
133. eaglesrock
1:52 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
I wouldn't be too optimistic. I think I have a good chance of seeing about 25% rain.
132. Zachary Labe
1:56 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
I think mostly snow for you though you are far enough east near that dumb rain/snow line.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
131. eaglesrock
1:54 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
I'm in Allentown.

Read my blog for your forecast. I believe Harrisburg gets all snow.
130. Zachary Labe
1:52 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
Blogs are acting strange tonight!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
129. Zachary Labe
1:02 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
eaglesrock-Where are you located near?

Do you think it is snow for me north of Harrisburg?

Yes the times seem to be screwed up on the blogs.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
128. eaglesrock
1:48 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
I'm not thinking it will be all snow for me. I think rain will mix in at the height of the storm.

Is it just me, or are there problems with the blogs tonight?
127. Zachary Labe
1:46 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
I like your map, but for now I still think people for the southern poconos and lehigh valley see snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
126. eaglesrock
12:59 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
I like your snowfall map for the storm. I agree with it.
125. Zachary Labe
1:41 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
Well, I think the GFS is going to come in line with the other models. I think that the small clipper will slightly phase with the storm. I think there is only one low which will be semi-coastal. Why do I say semi-coastal? Well one of my fears is that the new 12z EURO is right with a farthur inland track. But for now I am sticking with what I have been thinking for almost a week. That many areas 20miles northwest of I95 see a good snowstorm. I am sticking with my snow outlook map for now.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
124. eaglesrock
1:38 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
What are your current thoughts on the storm?
123. Zachary Labe
1:33 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
eaglesrock- I agree, I think for me here north of Harrisburg that we get hit with a good snowstorm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
122. Zachary Labe
1:33 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
charlesimages- Thanks for your response lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
121. eaglesrock
1:31 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
My forecast low track:



This will probably change by Friday when the models have a better handle on the Pacific ridge and the vortmax coming into the US.
120. charlesimages
1:28 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
Hmm.. you wanted me to take a look earlier I believe..

I'll say it starts off as rain, and then changes to snow. You may have a period of sleet mixing in.

I'm not sure on accumulations.. heck, I'm not even totally sure on MY AREAS accumulations LOL
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
119. Zachary Labe
1:22 AM GMT on January 10, 2008
Models that show coastal storm...

NAVY(NOGAPS)
CMC
EURO

Models that do not show coastal storm...

DGEX
GFS
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
118. PalmyraPunishment
9:13 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
well, Margusity's on board for a big one (i swear to god, if he shoots a video on saturday wearing that god forsaken "big daddy" t-shirt, i'll light a fire with the force of a thousand suns and jump inside)

im hoping that we get snow, and not rain or a mix... snow, and not 1-2 inches, but i'll hold out hope again... it'll prolly be ice.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
117. Zachary Labe
8:59 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
Great, but if the 12z EURO is correct than most people see rain or a mix. The appalachians in this case would see the heavy snow. But I do not think this will happen.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
116. eaglesrock
8:57 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
Almost definitely. The 850 0-degree line will be to the south of you the whole storm.
115. Zachary Labe
8:56 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
eaglesrock- I agree. Do you think if this storm happen I see snow in Harrisburg, PA?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
114. Spetrm
8:36 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
Good point blizzard, common rule second wave of weather in a row is usually the worst.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 9857
113. eaglesrock
8:51 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
The GFS still isn't phasing the clipper into the southern stream. Most other models are. We just need to wait for the GFS to show it. I think the Euro model is the most reasonable solution for this storm, if you move the low about 100 miles east.
112. Zachary Labe
8:41 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
I think north of the NY/PA border and of course west of the big cities will see a mix of precipitation. I do not think anything will be to significant, but in the mountains there could be a few inches of snow. With most valleys though it will just be a mix that will have a hard time accumulating. I would not worry to much about Friday.

But Sunday-Monday that is something we need to watch for something significant.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
111. Spetrm
8:41 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
Two weeks I had my dosage of snow, expecially mid last week when we got over a foot of lake effect. That crap is crazy! I think overall though the entire NE will see a mix of rain and snow friday, what you think blizzard?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 9857
110. Zachary Labe
8:32 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
Well I guess that is good news for the storm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
109. sullivanweather
8:25 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
Blizzard,

For some reason the GFS just isn't resolving the pattern well...

From the HPC:

"ALREADY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EARLY DAY 3/SAT... MODEL
CONSENSUS IS SLOWER THAN THE 00 UTC GFS WITH THE ERN PAC SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARD THE PAC NW/WRN CANADA. VERIFICATION OF WELL
DEVELOPED ERN PAC SYSTEMS IN RECENT MONTHS STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
THE SLOWER ECMWF CLUSTER IS MORE LIKELY TO BE CORRECT. THIS
LIKELY FLAW IN THE 00 UTC GFS LEADS TO A BROADER AND FASTER TROF
FCST TO TRACK EWD FROM THE PLAINS... "
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
108. Zachary Labe
8:22 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
One thing though is with that new EURO it brings the rain/snow line really far inland.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
107. Zachary Labe
8:20 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
O my! Why does the GFS not show a coastal storm?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
106. Zachary Labe
8:06 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
PalmyraPunishment- I am north of Harrisburg and I saw 2.5inches of snow on the 30th of December. In downtown Harrisburg they too saw 1inch.

And personally I do not think we need to worry about rain here in Harrisburg. Either we are going to have snow or there will be no storm at all.

Updating blog soon.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
105. sullivanweather
8:05 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
Holy lord!!

Look at the new 12z ECMWF!!

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
104. WeatherBobNut
6:07 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
Todays 06z and 12z doesn't have the storm along the coast...time will tell............................
103. PalmyraPunishment
6:04 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
it's going to rain everywhere south of I-80 and East of a line from Altoona/State College/Williamsport.

it pains me to say that... but until im proven wrong, it's the harsh reality of the past few winters..

(of course, this does not count for december 30th, 2007 when Harrisburg reported rain, and in Carlisle I ended up seeing all snow)
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
102. eaglesrock
12:56 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
Rain and snow, but mostly rain.

Signing off.
101. dean2007
12:50 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
What about the coast, east of I95?
100. eaglesrock
12:21 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
I like the 0z Euro. The clipper gets phased into the southern stream, then the storm rides up the East Coast bombing out near Cape Cod. I-95 gets mostly snow along with the interior, and everyone is happy.

Now we just need to wait for the DGEX, NOGAPS, and UKMET to show this. The 6z GFS has trended NW giving the big cities some snow.
99. Bonedog
11:27 AM GMT on January 09, 2008
keeping fingers crossed :)

looks like all the ingrediants are in place or will be. Just need the system to run the benchmark.

Still dont see why OKX and PHI are calling for 40% snow showers. Guess they are being overly cautious as usual. Even went so far as saying the system will be off to our east. No system has gone east this winter thus far. Time will tell.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
98. Zachary Labe
11:19 AM GMT on January 09, 2008
That certainly looks like a good storm!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
97. sullivanweather
9:16 AM GMT on January 09, 2008
I love the Canadian Model for this potential storm on Sunday night/Monday.

120hr

132hr

144hr

-------

Now, will this scenario play itself out?

Too early to tell. The GFS still is out to lunch, but as I've been saying...The GFS almost ALWAYS loses the storm in the 108hr-156hr timeframe for reasons unknown.

Perhaps it has a poor resolution/data gaps, when the energy that spawns these systems is out over the north Pacific, or something...
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
96. eaglesrock
3:02 AM GMT on January 09, 2008
All your answers are right here.

Click on the dates preceding the storm to see the patterns that occurred, and do this with any other storm back to 1979.

Link

Viewing: 146 - 96

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations