Wednesday storm thoughts for 14-15th...
"Afternoon thoughts"
Good January afternoon. For Thursday things quiet down all in preparation for the next front that will come through this Friday. This will be a stronger front, that could pose some problems in terms of mix precipitation in the far north. The NAM model shows it really cold with mixing as far south as I80. But for now I like the GFS solution, with a little mixing in the extreme north. There will not be to many flooding issues as most of the snowpack is gone, though rainfall could be heavy. Possibly over 1inch can be expected. The mix of precipitation should not cause too many problems. Then things clear out completely by Friday night with much more seasonable air.
"Short Term"
Ok, this short term is devoted to all the weather events this weekend that will lead up to the 14-15th storm. For saturday it appears that temperatures will be getting back to normal with highs in the 30s statewide. The real colder air is going to move in for Saturday night and Sunday ahead of the real storm. Alot of ingredients are there for this storm.
1. High pressure to north of storm(in Canada).
2. Contrasting airmasses of real warmth and cold.
3. Strong pattern shift.
4. Above normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures.
5. Strong gulf flow.
6. No low pressure heading up west of Appalachians.
7. 992mb pressure possible, off of the coast of Cape Cod.
8. High pressure will slow movement of storm.
9. NAO-Neutral to negative.
10. Cold air with eastern trough will push the storm just far enough off the coast to affect many people with snow.
These are the top reasons I could come up with to support the storm. Sunday appears to be cloudy and cool with snow approaching southern PA by noon.
Current Radar...
"Long Term"
This long term is devoted now to the 14-15th storm. But real quick, for the long term after the storm. It appears it stays cold with more possible snowstorms. I see no warmup in sight after this one. Ok, now on to the storm. First off I want to start off by saying that even though the storm is getting closer, I still do not think any of us have a better idea than yesterday or the day before then on this storm. The GFS still shows a flat wave heading out to sea and some of the other models such as the EURO show a big coastal storm. I think that the GFS will gain a concensus soon. It is hard to say what is going to happen with this storm. I would be interested to hear everyone thoughts on this system. My thoughts are that it heads up the coast and areas west of I95 see snow. So for today I want to hear everybodies thoughts and tomorrow I will update fully on new updates on the potential storm.
"Subject to Change"
Current NAO...
Notice the negative trend.
"Just to throw out there"
I think we should throw out the recent 12z run of the GFS. I do not think this is the solution of the storm. All of my forecasts made today are based off of several models including the 6z GFS. This is a similar solution to what I think will happen.
"Regional Forecasts" (Wednesday Night)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Windy with clear skies.(WestnorthWest). Low 32.
2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Winds becoming calmer.(WestnorthWest). Low 31.
3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Windy.(WestnorthWest). Low 36.
4. Central- (State College)-
Clear skies. Low 30.
5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Partly cloudy. Low 28.
6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Partly cloudy. Low 29.
7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Mostly clear skies. Low 26.
January Outlook
Well already it is January 3rd and it seems like the holidays flew by. Anyway it is time to look at the monthly outlook. Overall it appears temperatures on average will be around .5-1degree below normal when the month comes to an end. Periods of arctic air and somewhat mild air will cause only a minor below average temperature. There will be though times of very warm conditions, especially from the 6-11th of the month. Then there will be cold times like the first few days in January and the last 2-3weeks in January. Precipitation should come out well above normal. We are in a very active weather pattern due to the La Nina especially. Storms seem very frequent throughout the month. Snowfall will probably be above normal across much of the state except the far southeast. About 1-4inches above normal looks likely. So overall it appears to be a relatively cold January with normal to above normal snowfall. I know this does not agree with other January outlooks by Accuweather or NOAA, but I still believe it will end up being overall cold. Those weather services seem to be overestimating the warm air from the La Nina. They predicted a warm December and it ended up being colder with alot of snow in some areas. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this month plays out. So stay warm!!!
***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.
Reader Comments
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SUNDAY, WILL SEE YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER AS LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN HEADS NE ALONG THE COAST. SINCE
THE AIRMASS IS NOT TOO COLD, MOSTLY RAIN IS FCST, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW NORTH.
What are anybodys thought on this?
Once we fall within 108hrs the GFS will pick the storm back up.
This warm air is lovely I must say =)
Thoughts? Hmm... Not to dampen your spirits (no pun intended) but I think there will be more rain before the snow changeover begins..
Yesterday's run had temperatures of -30°F in northern Minnesota....for HIGHS
Lows down to -40°F to -50°F.
Now that would be something else, huh?
charlesimages-What storm do you mean?
We actually did have lows down into the -20s last February... here in Michigan.. but I highly doubt that happens this time, there is still a lot of warmer.. more moist air aloft
This Pacific HIGH sure has been nice to us ever since it moved on shore .. except for the fog
The longer the AO stays positive the longer that arctic air is allowed to build up there...
While I dont agree with the GFS long range forecast I do foresee a pretty good arctic outbreak coming down a few weeks out..
The 200mb anomalies show a ridge beginning to build over eastern Asia.
This usually will displace large cold airmasses that develop over Siberia and send them over this way...
This will most likely happen when the pattern of a trough over Baffin Bay and the western Atlantic ridge pattern breaks down
easternwx apparently violated distribution policies for the ECMWF model
I guess the Europeans are very eliteist about their little gem model...
SUNDAY, WILL SEE YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER AS LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN HEADS NE ALONG THE COAST. SINCE
THE AIRMASS IS NOT TOO COLD, MOSTLY RAIN IS FCST, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW NORTH.
What are anybodys thought on this?
"
Thoughts? Hmm... Not to dampen your spirits (no pun intended) but I think there will be more rain before the snow changeover begins.."
LOL Looks like what I pretty much predicted earlier in here at 5:51 PM EST on January 06, 2008
I am still excited with the 14th storm. Because I am desperate for some good snow here.
Any thouhts on me possibly getting a snowstorm?
I do think the entire state of Pennsylvania by the middle of next week will be cold enough for snow if any storms heads this way.
So watch out, because this winter is going to throw a few surprises.
And Blizzard, I think it's too early to make a snowfall map.
Is it possible the the eastern trough will push the storm too far east?
On a side note, here's the 18z DGEX for Monday morning:
Is there anything that might foreshadow these storms not turning to rain and when will the models start agreeing?
Link
Link
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