First Major Winter Storm on a Widespead Impact Level...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:24 PM GMT on December 09, 2008

Share this Blog
0
+

Thoughts on December 11-12 storm...
A very fascinating storm system is headed towards the east coast, but first it is delivering rare snowfalls in parts of the Gulf Coast that have not been seen since 1998. Snowfall accumulations have been reported as far south as Houston with winter storm warnings now out for parts of central Mississippi delivering up to 6inches of rare snow. I am sure everyone down there is enjoying this little taste of winter from the north to brighten their holidays, though I imagine there are many issues on the roads thanks to the rarity of the snow. Here is my storm discussion followed by my timeline...

A sharp temperature contrast cold front is stationed across southeastern Pennsylvania this time and will slowly push to the coastline before stalling out. Low level cold air in the bounday layer will slowly push in across the state, but will likely not reach far southeastern Pennsylvania until Friday. The cold air aloft will have a hard time moving in over the region due to lack of arctic high to north. While it may seem that there is a high pressure to the north in the Great Lakes, this will push quickly off to the east as a clipper dives down in the Midwest. We can all thank the clipper for the lack of snow in this sytem. Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will form and ride up along the cold front likely taking a track up the east coast and off the southern Delmarva tracking slightly off the coast by about 25-50miles. Lack of easterly track will keep precipitation types across much of Pennsylvania of rain or a mix. A surge of an anomaly of moisture will be moving up the coast with PWATs several deviations above normal. Coastal low moves up the coast bring strong southeasterly winds to southern areas drawing in warmer air for the southeastern Piedmont with once again warm temperatures similar to Wednesday highs. H85s rise to near 10C near Philadelphia, but the sharp contrast leads to the 0C line from Altoona-State College-Scranton where the snow/sleet/freezing rain line will form. With lack of high pressure to north, temperatures aloft for the colder air will be in a bitter battle with the surging warmth. Low level cold air will be filtering in which is sort of different from typical storms in which we have cold air damming with only stagnant cold air. This time we have fresh cold air moving in that should stay locked in for the boundary layer temperatures leading to the development of a signficant ice storm. Temperatures will be marginally around freezing for much of the central and northeastern part of the state. But temperatures near 32degrees seem to be the best for large accretions of ice to form. The problem see is the bust potential as temperatures could be plus or minus 1-3degrees which could completely throw off ice storm potential. Elevations above 1500ft in the Poconos stand the best chance for ice accumulations with nearly .75inches or more possibly accumulating. One aiding factor in lower ice accretions will be the heavy rate of the freezing rain, which tends to make accumulations of ice harder to form thanks to run-off. Many other lower elevations though will see a damaging ice storm particurily from the Laurel Highlands up through the Middle Susquehanna Valley on up through the Northeastern Mountains. As for rainfall it will be quite heavy over extreme southeastern Pennsylvania likely totaling near 2inches by the end period of the storm. A few minor flooding issues are possible, but I do not see any problems developing. There will be a definite lack of snow with this system as the northwestern end of the precipitation sheild will form right at the 0C H85. Snow accumulations will likely be highest over the northeastern mountains. Overall this system looks to be a potentially damaging ice storm for a widespread area and should be taken very serious. As the low pulls to the northeast a deformation of snow may form as cold air aloft comes rushing in. This may cause a band of 1-2inches of snow in central and east-central Pennsylvania before the storm is all said and done and that would likely be around for the Friday morning commute. Please be prepared for widespread power outages in the ice storm prone locations along with the possibility of widespread tree damage thanks to the added addition of a northeast wind gusting up to 30mph particularily in eastern Pennsylvania. Snow accumulations do not look to be overally heavy, but could be widespread on a light level. Remember a change of 1 or 2 degrees could be the difference between rain and a devastating ice storm. That means this system has a large bust potential, which is making forecasts very difficult. My maps are below and are of my latest thoughts. The only issues I see with them is maybe a bit to far south on the extent of the frozen precipitation, but for now with many models slowly trending and east surface analysis showing a bit more southeasterly track, I will keep the maps the way they area.

9:00pm-12:00am...
Spotty precipitation will be scattered across the state of Pennsylvania with slowly falling temperatures especially across central areas on westward. Across western and northern Pennsylvania spotty freezing rain is being reported including around the Pittsburgh metro area. Post frontal mixed precipitation with sleet and snow may also occur across western Pennsylvania with ice accumulations up to .1inches in some areas and a trace of snow. Across eastern areas spotty drizzle with some dense fog will be the main issues for tonight. Temperatures will be falling into the 30s towards 12am.

12:00am-2:00am...
Precipitation shield will be advancing across southern areas of Pennsylvania crossing over the Mason-Dixon line. Rain is primarily expected in the southern border counties, but out towards the Laurel Highlands, the freezing rain will begin with areas near Mt. Davis and Laurel Summit seeing a trace of ice accumulation in this time period. Temperatures will continue to slowly fall.

2:00am-7:00am...
Precipitation sheild will be across much of the state with freezing rain now falling in my areas including the lower elevations from about the turnpike on northward. Ice accumulations may form up to .1inches in this time period. Across southeastern Pennsylvania heavy rain will begin to start to fall with mild temperatures. Further west in the northcentral mountains precipitation will begin as a period of snow/sleet with accumulations up to 2inches.

7:00am-12:00pm...
Precipitation will be widespread from about westcentral Pennsylvania on eastward with areas seeing freezing rain and plain rain. Temperatures will begin to stop falling and become more steady. I do not anticipate a rise in temperatures during the day, except for southeastern Pennsylvania near Philadelphia. Ice accumulations will be up to .15inches in parts of the Laurel Highlands and Poconos. Elsewhere ice accumulations will be less than .1inches

12:00pm-6:00pm...
Coastal low will be strengthening drawing in some colder air aloft changing the western extent of the precipitation over to snow and sleet with accumulations up to 2inches. Elsewhere freezing rain and rain will persist with damaging ice storm accretions beginning to form across northeastern Pennsylvania.

6:00pm-12:00am...
Precipitation will slowly change from freezing rain to snow from west to east, with southeastern Pennsylvania still seeing plain rain and mild temperatures which will slowly be falling in the later portion of the period. Ice accumulations could be up to an additional .15inches in parts of the Poconos. Snowfall amounts will generally be less than 3inches.

12:00am-9:00am...
The end of the storm will be nearing with backend of the precipitation slowly advancing northeastward changing some areas back over to snow for a time period with snow accumulations up to 3inches in parts of central and east-central Pennsylvania. Cold air will move in for later in the morning for finally southeastern Pennsylvania.

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
Tough prediction to put exact estimates on the rain/snow lines due to the fact that the situation is continuing to look colder than earlier surface patterns and guidance suggested. But here are my main precipitation lines. These lines are for precipitation at the height of the storm and are subject to change. Many areas will get in on wintry precipitation, but not until the end of the storm. West of the lines is the colder of the two types of precipitation.

My rain/freezing rain line is... Greencastle (Franklin County) - Gettysburg (Adams County) - Lewisberry (York County - Elizabethtown (Lancaster County) - Mt. Gretna (Lebanon County) - Hamburg (Berks County) - Allentown (Lehigh County) - Easton (Northampton County)

My freezing rain/snow line is... Indiana (Indiana County) - Altoona (Blair County) - Milroy (Mifflin County) - Jersey Shore (Lycoming County) - Laporte (Sullivan County) - Scranton (Wyoming County) - Milford (Pike County)

These are overall precipitation types. Precipitation types can wander several miles on either side of the lines.

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Significant ice accumulations possible across interior.
2. Significant snow accumulations likely across central areas.
3. Heavy QPF across a widespread region of Pennsylvania.
4. Heavy rain likely across eastern areas with minor flooding possible.
5. Duration of event is relatively short with fast moving system.

Snow Map...

*A few higher amount could be expected across parts of Bradford, Susquehanna, and Wayne Counties for elevations above 1900ft.

Ice Map...

*Map includes elevation for the higher ice accumulations.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Rain changing to moderate freezing rain accumulating up to near .25inches. Back end snow possible up to 2inches
Baltimore, MD- Mainly rain possibly mixed with sleet at end of storm up to 2.5inches
Washington, DC- Rainfall up to 2.5inches
Wilmington, DE- Rain mixed with a trace of backend snow
Dover, DE- All rain accumulating up to 3inches
Cape May, NJ- All rain up to 3inches. May become breezy gusting up to 45mph
Trenton, NJ- Mainly rain with a trace of backend snow Rainfall up to 2inches or more
New York City, NY- All rain likely up to 2.5inches
Poughkeepsie, NY- Severe ice storm up to .5inches of ice or more. Back end snow may also accumulate up to 1inch
Binghamton, NY- Mainly snow with a bit of sleet. Snowfall accumulations from 5-9inches
Albany, NY- Snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain. Ice accumulations up to .25inches with 3-6inches of snow
Hartford, CT- Moderate ice storm with freezing rain totaling slightly over .25inches
Concord, NH- Snow/sleet/freezing rain with snowfall up to 3inches and near .5inches of freezing rain
Providence, RI- All rain likely totaling up to 2inches or slightly more
Worcester, MA- Severe ice storm accumulations up to .75inches
Boston, MA- All rain mixing with sleet at times. Rainfall up to 2inches
Nantucket, MA- High winds and heavy rain. Winds up to 55mph with heavy rain totaling over 2inches
Portland, ME- Freezing rain with rain at times also. Up to .25inches of freezing rain and likely over 1.5inches of plain rain
Bangor, ME- Freezing rain up to .3inches changing to sleet and snow. Snow accumulations less than one inch
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Well we have been tracking this storm for over a week and have seen a variety of solutions on the modelst. I must say just when you think the models cannot get any worse, they do actually get worse. Still no consensus on the model runs and we are still getting trends with shifts nearly 50miles to the east on models such as the 18z NAM. Also with 12z EURO we had a major shift east. Overall though, despite what some may say, I think the GFS did the best job in spotting this second system and for its consistent placement for a coastal storm. The EURO took longer to catch onto the system and seemed to have a western outlier type track for a majority of the time. Before I start in on my quick analysis of the models, I do think they are overestimating some of this warm air especially aloft. Looking at latest mesoanlysis from the Storm Prediction Center, then critical thickness lines such as the 540line are already much farther south than progged at this models at this time. This is not to say though this will be a more snowy solution as I do not think that is too likely. I think the models have a pretty good grab on the track of the system with my model of choice being the NAM/NMM combo. The SREF mean seems to have a good hold on this system too. EURO remains a bit too far west along with CMC. The GFS seems to have the system initiated too wrong. Another fault I see with the models is over predicting QPF totals which I do not see such high end totals. They have consistently all had a wet bias this year.

So here is a quick look at the latest runs of the models for the American Models...

The 18z NAM is sort of my model of choice for this sytem as it has been a bit farther east than other models and it seems to be estimating the cold air pretty well. The QPF sheild is pretty decent throwing precipitation back in west-central Pennsylvania and into southwestern Pennsylvania. It also shows the sharp cut-off, which I think will be evident in this storm. But the interesting part is about the 18z NAM is the deformation band that forms. While it seems a bit extreme and slightly unlikely some areas may see a bit of snow out of this...

The 18z GFS on the other hand seemed to have some initiation problems with the cold air aloft. When the model run came out the initial 0 hour had the 540 line over Lake Erie, when in fact it was actually over northwestern Pennsylvania according to actual upper air data. Overall it just seemed to be a faulty run with a track about 25miles farther west than it showed in the 12z run...

The NMM or otherwise known as the WRF HIRES model has a very high resolution power able to pick up on banding and orographic lift. The model seems to have the best hold on QPF, but still a bit over the top in my opinion...

Another interesting part is the simulated radar, which does also develop a strong deformation band of snow as 850s crach down below 0C. This simulated radar is for late Thursday night into Friday...

Overall the models have yet to reach a consensus and I would not really expect them too. For those stills monitoring the models, tonight's 0z runs are the last ones of significane.

After the storm...
So after the storm snowlovers will go back in hiding as a mild spell is headed our way, which could potentially hinder the accuracy of my December Outlook. This pattern shift is somewhat expected after a brutally cold end of November to beginning of December with record lows being broke all across the region and very unusual events, such as the lake effect snow squalls that dropped nearly 4inches all the way to Philadelphia in a very small streamers. And we cannot forget back on October 28 where our own blogger Stan999 even reported 18inches of snow in northeastern Pennsylvania in Wayne County. That was quite a rarity type event where unusual snows also fell in Bucks County during that event. The next day brought traces of snow for everyone across the state. Note after the big October nor'easter, a very mild period hit in the beginning of November with highs approaching 85degrees near records. This period lasted for nearly two weeks eventually giving way to a full month period of arctic cold with occasional snows. I believe most everyone has finally seen their first accumulating snow. So here we go with another big storm, which will eventually bring a pattern shift for a deep western trough bringing nearly record cold temperatures and even snow across the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking their seems to be an above normal amount of cold air available across the north. Laws of equilibrium suggested a eventual shift in the pattern for a period of time, and that time has come. There has been a general model consensus for nearly a week on the new gained warmth across the east with cold situated over places such as Montana. Other developments prove now that we do have an official La Nina I believed after some rapidly declining SST in the Pacific. Warm weather will bring highs to near 10degrees above normal for some periods, but I do not really see any great signs of blowtorch type weather headed towards the east. More so temperatures should just be above seasonal levels. MJO pattern shift moves into phase 4 bringing very warm anomalies up the eastcoast and generally cold conditions across the west. NAO and PNA all situated for eastcoast ridging along with positive AO. Signs do point to a general return to cold air later in the month. MJO shows signs of maybe future shift to a move favorable east coast troughing phase near 6 or 7, but that remains to be seen. Also teleconnection indices are showing signs of more favorable snowy pattern. Something to keep in mind for past few winters is the lack of Greenland Blocking and lack of true definition of negative NAO. This prevented any major storm from forming and which will eventually lead to a non-snowy nor'easter in the short term. The hope would be for a shift to a more favorable negative NAO towards the end of the month, and a development of blocking. We really have not been in a good pattern for snowstorms this entire season despite the anomalous cold air. So I guess one snowlover could consider this all wasted cold. My concluding thoughts bring the idea of a 1-2week reloading period with deep trough over west and warm conditions elsewhere across the east. Long term GFS does favor back door cold fronts so some areas in New England may escape the warmest of the pattern. Those looking for a white Christmas this year may be sort of out of luck, despite the current pattern we have been in.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2008-2009 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0.00inches
Monthly Total- 0.75inches
Seasonal Total- 6.85inches
Winter Weather Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Heavy Snow Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Snow Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 26
Lowest Low Temperature- 14
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First Snow - October 29 - Trace
First Snow on Ground - November 18 - Coating
Lake Effect Snow - November 21/22 - 6.00inches

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 283 - 233

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

283. TheRasberryPatch
8:00 PM GMT on December 14, 2008
Wow, Blizz I didn't realize that the temps would be that cold.
From the little bit I have read it appears the NE received an ice storm relating to the one we got last year at this time.
I guess now that you brought up about snow traffic on the blog will increase again lol
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
282. Zachary Labe
6:08 PM GMT on December 14, 2008
Just to keep everyone updated a winter storm is likely headed towards the region Tuesday. Crazy NAM prints out 7inches of snow for Harrisburg while GFS shows ice storm. I will have more information in my new blog coming sometime today or tonight.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
281. lawntonlookers
4:20 PM GMT on December 14, 2008
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Yes, that storm rattled the house a lot. Too bad the rest of my family was commentating during the storm, because they were all in the garage watching the storm with me. We said some unwarranting words, but I guess everyone does. That was a great storm and since it was on my birthday it was a great present from God.


Just watched you video. It really shows what you see if you pause it during the lighting strike toward the end and then move slowly through the frams by moving the bar on the bottom. It lights up the whole area for a moment and then you can see the lighting bolt.

Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
280. TheDawnAwakening
2:09 PM GMT on December 14, 2008
Yes, that storm rattled the house a lot. Too bad the rest of my family was commentating during the storm, because they were all in the garage watching the storm with me. We said some unwarranting words, but I guess everyone does. That was a great storm and since it was on my birthday it was a great present from God.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
279. Zachary Labe
12:59 AM GMT on December 14, 2008
jthal57- So frusturating, the pattern has been cold for weeks then a day where it gets warm during a major storm, then more cold for a week. But this week does in fact look relatively warm compared to what it has been. Already 23degrees here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
278. jthal57
10:22 PM GMT on December 13, 2008
pretty cold night on tap tonite...possible teens here...where was this a couple of days ago! lol
277. Zachary Labe
9:45 PM GMT on December 13, 2008
TheDawnAwakening- Nice video, especially the lightning strike near the end of the video. It reminds me of some of the intense lightning strikes that hit the mountain behind me at the summit. The soundwaves then radiate down the valley making for some home-shaking thunderous roars. Unfortunately I missed out on seeing any of that phenomenon during this past summer.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
276. TheDawnAwakening
9:25 PM GMT on December 13, 2008
Link
Lightning one of natures coolest displays. My little brother caught this video of a summer thunderstorm we had on my birthday that I was dying to show you blizzard. And there it is on youtube a few months later.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
275. Zachary Labe
5:45 PM GMT on December 13, 2008
***New blog coming tomorrow!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
274. Zachary Labe
5:00 PM GMT on December 13, 2008
JDinWPA- Wow, you picked up quite a bit of lake effect last night. Thanks for your report.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
273. JDinWPA
4:34 PM GMT on December 13, 2008
Well, that sounds omnious! Good morning Bliz. Three fluffy inches on the ground this morning. And a cold morning too, 14 degrees for the morning low. But the sun is shining, compacting all that fluffy whiteness and it should be gone, again, by tomorrow or the next day.
272. Zachary Labe
3:04 PM GMT on December 13, 2008
hurigo- The front will drop in from the Northwest and stall across the region with waves of low pressure forming along it to create overrunning precipitation events.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
271. hurigo
1:25 AM GMT on December 13, 2008
So will the weather be moving from the NW to the SE. Or, in other words, when you in PA get the storms will they be coming from your northwest?
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
270. Zachary Labe
1:11 AM GMT on December 13, 2008
hurigo- The entire period of weather up past Christmas is looking very stormy across the country. Active northern jet.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
269. hurigo
1:09 AM GMT on December 13, 2008
Oh No Blizz,
I appreciate the heads up, but that doesn't sound good. I know a lot of people will soon be traveling, with school getting out and people on holiday.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
268. Zachary Labe
1:07 AM GMT on December 13, 2008
hurigo- Next week looks like a mess too with a stalled front with ice across much of Pennsylvania and further south possibly.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
267. hurigo
1:05 AM GMT on December 13, 2008
Oh No, the Poconos had the ice storm? Those are special mountains for me. Look forward to seeing your new blog.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
266. Zachary Labe
1:01 AM GMT on December 13, 2008
wxgeek723- A lot of rain here too, with some minor flooding, but all in all things were not too bad. I imagine this would have been an 18inch-24inch type snowfall. As TheRasberryPatch mentioned earlier, there would have been less moisture content available.

hurigo- Pennsylvania made out ok, some areas in the Poconos above 1800ft recieved quite a bit of damaging ice, along with parts of the Laurel Highlands. My new blog should be coming Sunday for the week ahead.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
265. hurigo
11:47 PM GMT on December 12, 2008
Hey Blizz,
What a difference. Yesterday 70 today 40s. It was cold but the sun was shining. Last night it was so hot making it difficult to sleep. We had a lot of rain. We've got a leak on the front flat roof, but it wasn't too bad. A plump towel soaked it up.

I see in the news that the ice storm is just awful in the NE and upstate NY. I guess PA made out okay with this one? I will have to read back into your blog to see what is next.

Thank you for your blog. I do appreciate it.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
264. wxgeek723
11:28 PM GMT on December 12, 2008
Aha. I could almost sulk over the huge, depressing rain amounts we have gotten. 3.51 inches of rain here in Philadelphia...imagined if it had snowed! And Jersey Shore, PA, haha that kills me all the time. Looks like someone missed their beach house, lol. I'm starting to wonder whether or not this winter will be a bust or if it has a surprises for Philly. Weather around here lately seems bi-polar, more than usual at least. Well enjoy your Friday, blizz!
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
263. Zachary Labe
8:06 PM GMT on December 12, 2008
Snowlover2010- I think I am going a bit more conservative now for forecasting medium range storms, after what just happened. No thoughts on storm for several days.

TheRasberryPatch- They are really getting slammed with an arctic blast. One pattern I have noticed, which may come in handy later in the winter is the widespread available amount of arctic air this winter. Last winter it was all bottled up in Canada and could not be accessed.

PalmyraPunishment- I am still optimistic about this winter compared to last couple of winters. We are above normal for snowfall so far and it has been very cold. The problem is the unfavorable Atlantic with no high pressure to north of systems. Our storm tracks have been off the coast since Fall, so when we finally get the arctic high, Watchout!

lawntonlookers- Yep all in all we lucked out. This could have been a serious ice storm.


***Thanks everyone for tracking this storm here, we had a lot of great discussions and thoughts. Meteorology is still one of the little known sciences, and sometimes we will fail and other times succeed. No need to dwell over the past rain storm, I am moving on!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
262. lawntonlookers
1:41 PM GMT on December 12, 2008
Good morning everyone. Some minor flooding in the area, but in Harrisburg we lucked out in not getting the colder temp.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
261. PalmyraPunishment
1:32 PM GMT on December 12, 2008
blizz i had to laugh when i read your one comment on here saying "to bring everybody's spirits up, we may have another mixing event next week with a stalled front".

by mix do you mean "heavy rain mixing with light rain" or the more traditional "rain with 2 ice pellets and a little lost snowflake"? haha
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
260. TheRasberryPatch
12:39 PM GMT on December 12, 2008
Blizz - did you see the front coming into the West and Plains. wow, the temps will be dipping to brutal cold out there, with a lot of Blizz warnings. lol
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
259. TheRasberryPatch
12:36 PM GMT on December 12, 2008
temps are starting to fall.
storm totals from Wednesday AM - 2.79". very impressive storm.
I am sure up and down the east coast those reservoirs and lakes and groundwater is filled up nicely.
As for how much snow we would have gotten - well had it been cold enough for snow I doubt that the storm would have had that much precipitation. upper 30's holds more moisture than upper 20's which holds more moisture than upper 10's. for a good classic big snowstorm you really want the temp in the upper 20's, but I am sure most know that.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
258. Snowlover2010
11:46 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
So how much snow are you thinking for the storm next week?(ha ha I so want to move on to that one now)
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
257. Zachary Labe
11:25 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Snowlover2010- Yep, I just checked outside and it is lightly snowing with a little rain here at 36degrees and falling.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
256. Snowlover2010
11:21 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
What a dissapointment!
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
255. Zachary Labe
11:20 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Snowlover2010- With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s it will likely be a rain/snow mix initially, but change to all snow. Nothing much is expected as band will likely break up east of mountains. I think it is time we move on to the next storm, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
254. Snowlover2010
11:17 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Hey NWS and wgal say it is snowing here but all the radars show rain coming, whats up?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
253. Zachary Labe
11:09 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Well what a miserable winter storm. Total rainfall here of 2.23inches.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
252. jthal57
10:47 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
My 3 day RAIN total here 7 miles north of Easton PA: 3.82"
I can only dream if it were all snow!
251. PalmyraPunishment
10:25 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
so uh. i'd like to nominate this storm for automatic induction into the "Bust" hall of fame.

anybody object? yeah, i didn't think so. lol
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
250. JDinWPA
2:35 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
We're still hanging at around 30 degrees. Light precip started here about an hour ago. At first it was slush but now there's big, feathery snow flakes falling. It's rather pretty actually with the white Christmas lights luminating it.
249. Snowlover2010
2:05 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Last minute report that my temp has drop 1° to 35, hope this helps me get out of my quiz tommorow(in my dreams)
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
248. Zachary Labe
2:03 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Well I am signing out for the night. Last thoughts...

Watch the area of precipitation in Kentucky tonight and continue to monitor observation reporting sites in areas such as State College for changeovers to snow. If we see any snow tonight it will be with that second area on the radar. Have a great night all!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
247. Zachary Labe
1:58 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Correct. 5hour difference.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
246. TheRasberryPatch
1:52 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
i would think the z means zulu time? which is greenwich time. so 5z equals midnight, right?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
245. Snowlover2010
1:52 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
So bassically this will happen while I am in school. No Delay. Bummer.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
244. Snowlover2010
1:49 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
11-16z equals what time?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
243. Zachary Labe
1:45 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Latest update from State College...

FURTHER EAST...RAIN AND POSS FZRA
OVR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL TAPER OFF ARND 06Z WITH ARRIVAL
DRY SLOT...THEN DEFORMATION BAND SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. GENERALLY EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BTWN 11-16Z ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE SFC TEMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV 0C SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMS.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
242. TheRasberryPatch
1:43 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Blizz - its pouring here. looking at the latest public statement there hasn't been much snow reported for the state.
you saw they have a flood advisory up.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
241. Zachary Labe
1:40 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good, old Davis, lol. Always makes me laugh when our scientific weather stations end up saying it's raining cats and dogs.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
240. TheRasberryPatch
1:39 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
the clipper appears to be dry.
anyway, the rain is really coming down now. temps are steady and the barometer is still falling @ 29.66". winds are coming out of the NE.
rain gauge is telling me its raining cats and dogs.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
239. Zachary Labe
1:33 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Just to brighten everyone's spririts, lol, we could be looking at another mixed precipitation event next week with a stalled front.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
238. Zachary Labe
1:30 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Snowlover2010- Temperatures will be up and down throughout the night. As heavier precipitation moves in for the first half of the night temperatures will rise as warm air is aloft. But as the night progresses when colder air moves in aloft, and heavier precipitation may lower temperatures a little.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
237. Snowlover2010
1:28 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Another question, NWS has my temp rises to 42 around 11, but it is 37 now, will this really happen because then I see myself getting no snow?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
236. Zachary Labe
1:27 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Snowlover2010- My feeling is not, but I am taking the more conservative route, so the possibility is there.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
235. Snowlover2010
1:24 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
So do you not think the deformation band will make it?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
234. Zachary Labe
1:23 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- The frontline going through Michigan is the clipper, and the precipitation in Kentucky and West Virginia is the back-end snows, which the NWS thinks will affect us but I am starting to doubt it.

Snowlover2010- Not necessarily. The dry slot will enter our region, but during that time temperatures may drop below freezing, but they also may not. Then if the deformation band is still around it should move through early Friday morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
233. Snowlover2010
1:17 AM GMT on December 12, 2008
Also will that dry slot coming affect us at all?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003

Viewing: 283 - 233

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Fall in Ithaca
Snow Fluff
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD

Personal Weather Stations

About Personal Weather Stations