Update as of 10pm on midmonth storm...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:26 PM GMT on January 02, 2008

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"Afternoon thoughts"
Well good afternoon!!! Here across Pennsylvania it is much more mild than it was yesterday. Current temperatures are from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Also there is some precipitation moving across the state as we speak. Also of variety is occuring with the precipitation. Most areas are seeing light rain. But out of Du Bois and Bradford the latest observation is light snow. So for the rest of the day expect light rain, light sleet, or light snow. Then for tonight when it gets colder at the surface there may be some freezing rain. Across the north and across the
Poconos there are some freezing rain advisories. So if you are heading out to night, be careful. In the upper atmosphere it will be above freezing, so expect no snow.

"Short Term"
Well this coming week looks mild with highs in the mid 50s for most areas this week. On Wednesday a strong front moves through and this cools everything down with back to normal temperatures and then another front moves through this weekend with temperatures getting colder than normal. With the first frontal passage there may be some heavy rain associated with it. So stay tuned for this. They may be some flooding issues with the rapid snow melt and ice melt on rivers combined with over 1inch of rain. So for most of the week expect warm conditions with clouds and an occasional shower. See the longterm for more information on snow chances.
Current Radar...
Current Radar...

"Long Term"
Well interesting long term. After the warm air leaves(talked about in the short term), some cold air moves back in. And there is a storm, as usuall. A couple points I want to make about the long term outlook.
1. We go in patterns of well warmer than normal temperatures to well colder than normal temperatures and then back to warm and so on...
2. Strong storms will develop between these air mass changes.
3. Snow lovers who are already dissapointed, remember there is still plenty of winter to go.
4. It will finally snow sometime soon I believe in the middle atlantic states.
5. The NAO appears to remain neutral for a while, which to keep out temperatures in the northeast either normal or colder than normal.
Ok, now lets talk about the winter storm the models have around for the midmonth period. Well first off the GFS has had the storm on all of its runs for quite a long time, which shows there is some consistency. Then now the EURO has it on its long term. It is even more agressive with the storm than the GFS is. Another thing to note is there will be alot of cold air around and even a strong high pressure north of the storm in Canada, which helps to bring in the cold air. During the worst of nor'easters there is always a high pressure to the north of the system. Another point is the NAO goes from positive to neutral by midmonth. As seen below. Many people think a coastal storm is less likely without a negative NAO, but the superstorms of 1993 and 1996 had neutral NAO's. So for now I would not get to hung up over that the NAO is only neutral. Now lets talk track of possible storm. Well the GFS has it going up right through the Appalachians, and personally I do not by it. I think it will end up either going west of the mountains or heading up the coast. Also I choose the coastal storm over the west of mountains storm, because there is alot of cold air that will push the storm to the east. Now remember this storm might not even happen. It sounds like I am saying this storm will happen, but really it might not happen. I just enjoy tracking these long term forecast systems. And even though it is a long way away, I still get excited for the possibility. Stay tuned for more updates in my blog throughout the next week on this potential storm. Well for today the models continue to show storms for midmonth with a major snowstorm around the 14th of January. This storm has been on the models for almost a week now. So confidence is growing by the day. I do think we will see a major snowstorm this month! Well the 14th storm is still on the models and it shows snow all the way to the coast with no rain/snow issues. So for now, stay warm! I will have updates throughout the weekend on the potential coastal storm.

Here is the 12z run of the GFS for the 14th of January...
12z GFS model run...


Here is the 12z run of the EURO for the 15th of January...
12z EURO...


Current NAO...
NAO...


"Just to throw out there"

Well for the 14-15th storm the models have similar ideas on the storm. The only difference is the GFS has the storm earlier than the EURO does. But they both have the storm and cold air. So my confidence is very high with this upcoming storm. So tuned for furthur updates that I will issue in my blog everyday. I have faith that this will be a major snowstorm.

***Update as of 1000pm...
Well the 18z GFS has no storm for the 14th, but it does have a big blizzard for later in the month. I do think though there will be a storm for the 14-15th. I just think the 18z run was a dud. Also I want to emphasize that there will be enough cold air for most areas to see snow. I though have two worries. One is that the storm heads west of the mountains or two the storm heads straight out to sea. Personally I do not think at all though that the storm will head up west of the mountains. Also it will not go straight up through the mountains either. I have rarely seen any storm go right up through the Appalachians. This would tear the storm right apart. For now I will stick to this... That a storm develops right of the southeast coast and tracks quite close to the coast with the rain/snow line 15miles east of I95. This is just my gut feeling. Also I think when it is all said and done somebody sees over a foot of snow in the valleys with maybe 2ft in the mountains. Have a great night!!!


"Regional Forecasts" (Saturday)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Warmer and partly cloudy. High 44.

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Warmer and mostly cloudy. High 43.

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Partly cloudy. High 46.

4. Central- (State College)-
Warmer and cloudy. High 42.

5. Northern- (Bradford, Williamsport, Erie)-
Much warmer. Snow melt. Cloudy. High 40.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Much warmer. Snow melt. Cloudy with a few rain showers.
High 41.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Much warmer. Rapid snow melt. Cloudy. High 42.

January Outlook
Well already it is January 3rd and it seems like the holidays flew by. Anyway it is time to look at the monthly outlook. Overall it appears temperatures on average will be around .5-1degree below normal when the month comes to an end. Periods of arctic air and somewhat mild air will cause only a minor below average temperature. There will be though times of very warm conditions, especially from the 6-11th of the month. Then there will be cold times like the first few days in January and the last 2-3weeks in January. Precipitation should come out well above normal. We are in a very active weather pattern due to the La Nina especially. Storms seem very frequent throughout the month. Snowfall will probably be above normal across much of the state except the far southeast. About 1-4inches above normal looks likely. So overall it appears to be a relatively cold January with normal to above normal snowfall. I know this does not agree with other January outlooks by Accuweather or NOAA, but I still believe it will end up being overall cold. Those weather services seem to be overestimating the warm air from the La Nina. They predicted a warm December and it ended up being colder with alot of snow in some areas. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this month plays out. So stay warm!!!


***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.

Regional Map...

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33. Zachary Labe
4:44 PM GMT on January 06, 2008
Well the 12z has the storm just scraping the coast.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
32. Zachary Labe
3:52 PM GMT on January 06, 2008
The 6z is quite impressive with the storm.
I looked at the 0z EURO today and it shows a weaker storm, but nonetheless it still shows a coastal storm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
31. WeatherBobNut
4:47 AM GMT on January 06, 2008
Hi guys, well blizzard, i don't ever pay much attention to the 18z run, it's usually a bogus run. I'm sure the 00z runs will show it back....Charles, i have been to Pocono Raceway 6 times! I'm a Kasey Kayne fan...Former Bill Elliott fan...Good point you've made Blizzard about the ocean temps still in the 40's...However, if enough cold air is sucked into the storm, that wont be much of a factor. The next 3 days of runs will really give us a lock down on what may happen....It'll be a tough forcast, no doubt.
30. Zachary Labe
2:37 AM GMT on January 06, 2008
Well the 18z GFS does not show a storm at all. As usuall the 18z run is always the odd run.
Also I wanted to add that if indeed the nor'easter cranks out,at this time I do not believe that the warm air will spread in too far inland to change areas to sleet and freezing rain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
29. SilverMountain
1:37 AM GMT on January 06, 2008
Thanks for the updates! Keep them coming. I usually check with Sullivan in NY who has a great snow blog & winter blog. I live in the PITTSBURGH region here in Mercer County. Checkout my wunderphotos of PA & WV.

Alan~~silvermountain
28. Stormfront
9:53 PM GMT on January 05, 2008
Just remember guys, the ocean temps are still in the 40's and if indeed a nor'easter does get cranked up, it will have a tendency to draw that warm air into it off the ocean and make a changeover to sleet and freezing rain and then to rain. Of course, this all depends on the track of the storm.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
27. charlesimages
9:40 PM GMT on January 05, 2008
Across the north and across the
Poconos there are some freezing rain advisories.


Ever been to Pocono Raceway?
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
26. WeatherBobNut
9:34 PM GMT on January 05, 2008
Blizzrd...that statement of no snow east of the mountains only tells me that they believe all of the upcoming storms will cut up through the lakes and we'll be on the warm side....i don't believe that one BIT! Each storm that comes through over the next week will continue to push cold air farther eastward and therefore be cold enough for all snow for all of the eaast....!
25. Zachary Labe
7:57 PM GMT on January 05, 2008
Yea, I agree. I think even the coastline will see snow. There is alot of cold air around. Also I want to add that I read a blog on another site today and they believe that east of the mountains there will be almost no snow for the rest of the winter. Any comments on this??? Personally I do not agree at all with that statement.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
24. WeatherBobNut
7:33 PM GMT on January 05, 2008
Not so fast Dean2007...there may be enough of a cold air push with the first two front coming through. So i wouldn't count on all rain just yet...hang in there...there are many more runs to come out before this storm and many things will change.
The storm does look impressive on the 12z runs...Lets see if it holds that close to the coast on the 18z runs....
23. dean2007
7:10 PM GMT on January 05, 2008
Yeah for places 20-50 miles from the coastline where the coastline gets rain again, esp Cape Cod, MA.
22. Zachary Labe
4:44 PM GMT on January 05, 2008
Well the 12z gfs is out and it still shows a monster snowstorm for the 14-15th.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
21. Zachary Labe
11:16 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
I do agree that a potentially arctic air mass will come down during the end of the month.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
20. dean2007
11:10 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
18Z GFS shows a brutally cold airmass arriving around the 20th with temps around -30C in the Midwest and -20C around the Northeast, I don't buy it, and the 20th storm is too far west, it will be a coastal storm. I just have that feeling, I'll be back after the Celtics game around 10pm.
19. Winterstormsblog
10:22 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
hey blizzard...18z GFS out to 138 hours!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
18. Zachary Labe
10:19 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
The 18z GFS is soon out...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
17. dean2007
5:48 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
One major storm on the 13th of January with an out to sea with major implications on the 20th. this is all in accordance with the latest 12z GFS. We will have to look for consistency or if it goes back to its original long range ideas for the 00z as the 18z runs are the wildest ones.
16. Zachary Labe
11:28 AM GMT on January 04, 2008
Well the 0z and 6z GFS have 3 major snowstorms coming up the coast in midmonth.

Also 11degrees and falling here north of Harrisburg.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
15. WeatherBobNut
3:12 AM GMT on January 04, 2008
Dean, i do agree with you in a sense however, i did see that the past storms in the east had the GFS predicting the storm too far west, and when it came time for the storm, it was at least 50 miles more eastward. Yes, the storms did still cut up through the great lakes but i feel there is a major storm track shift pattern change after the balmy conditions in the next 10 days...
14. Zachary Labe
11:54 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
The 18z run GFS has the 15th storm heading up through the great lakes, but this will change alot between now and then. One good thing though the storm is still on the models.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
13. Zachary Labe
11:51 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
I sure hope we see some good snows.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
12. dean2007
10:24 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
I have an updated blog showing the NAO, no signs of any true Blizzard on the east Coast until maybe the 20th. I believe this is when the storms will start cranking, its just a huncj I have right now, that something big for the I95 corridor and points east will finally have their big snowstorm. I'm talking the 24"+ amounts. The 15th storm looks like an inside runner.
11. rangerwillie1
9:56 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
Hopefully, the link to the NAO is posted below.

Bill

Link
10. WeatherBobNut
9:55 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
Interesting points in your blog Blizzard. The euro has a massive storm with the cold air in faster. I do believe there will be a storm. How big, how strong, the track ect...ramains the main questions that will be ironed out over the next week....I'm excited!!!
9. Zachary Labe
8:52 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
Thankyou. When I try to make links they do not work. Sorry. Also I am going to have a new update soon with the longterm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
8. nasanut
8:44 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
Bliz,

Thanks for a great blog, I especially like the emphasis on the NAO. Is there any chance you could make the NAO prediction JPEG you post into a hotlink?
7. WeatherBobNut
4:21 AM GMT on January 03, 2008
Hi Blizzard, i too am watching that storm for mid-month. With the NAO going negative and the cold air clashing with the warm air in place only means a recipe for a storm. I know it'll be off and on the models but it will be something to watch...

Current conditions in Old Forge,Pa
Temp 12...brrr
Wind Chill -4
Winds NNW 16mph
Pressure 30.34
Dewpoint 3

6. Zachary Labe
1:20 AM GMT on January 03, 2008
Wow! thats cold. Tomorrow night we are expecting temperatures in the single digits.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
5. cchamp6
1:15 AM GMT on January 03, 2008
At 8 pm it is 10 degrees here in Bantam, Ct. Still fairly breezy with a dewpoint of 0. Im guessing if the wind drops off a bit the temp will free fall another 8 or so degrees. Dean is finally getting some of that ocean effect snow. I guess it wont stick around for too long. I love snow and hate it at the same time as I plow snow for the highway dept. here. The days and nights all seem to become one. I could use a brief warm up and a break.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1680
4. Zachary Labe
1:06 AM GMT on January 03, 2008
Currently 21degrees here in north of Harrisburg. Windchills in the teens.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
3. Zachary Labe
9:10 PM GMT on January 02, 2008
Yes it will be something to watch.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125
2. MDFirefighter
9:08 PM GMT on January 02, 2008
middle of the month could be interesting. just after i get back from my cruise. perfect timing lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
1. Zachary Labe
8:59 PM GMT on January 02, 2008
Well todays high here north of Harrisburg maxed out at 30degrees. It sure is cold outside with the windchill.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15125

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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