Cold weather and even snow for the coming week...

By: Zachary Labe , 12:09 AM GMT on October 20, 2008

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 10/19)
So as I sit here typing this around 7pm, it is completely dark with the temperature already dropping to 44degrees. I think once again it has hit me that we are now entering winter. Skies continue to darken earlier and earlier overnight, with lengthening shadows from the house in the backyard. Fall leaves are fallen all throughout the yard and all of my gardening things are away and in the shed. The snow blower has been pulled out ready for the first major snow, and shovels sit only in the corner. It is amazing how fast time seems to travel. I mean it just seems as if it was on Labor Day last weekend. But yet we are already to the nearly the 20th of October with nearly a month before meteorological winter starts. Also it is hard for me to believe that nearly half of Pennsylvania has already had or near peak fall foliage. It just seems that the colors have begun to show. And then I look into the meteorological models, grids, etc and I see snow in the forecast for parts of Pennsylvania. Some of us are beginning to enter our own hibernations as we enter the depressing months of winter with limited sunshine and a dark landscape on the horizon. But yet all of these things are happening so fast, and soon Halloween will be over and history as we look towards Thanksgiving and yes I am going to say it… Christmas. Winter has already started for parts of the United States with rapidly increasing snow cover across Alaska and snow-covered Rocky Mountains across the inner mountain west. Where has time gone? We always seem to be living in the future, and not in the present. Then when the time has come, it feels like it has flown by. It is hard for me to believe that I was wishing for snowfall back in early September with the release of my outlook, and now here I am typing in forecasts for snowfall across parts of Pennsylvania. Once again where has time gone? And then here I sit staring at my Wunderground totals of nearly 79 blogs and over 4148 comments. But yet it seems I have joined this amazing site only yesterday (mid December). I am looking forward to another wonderful year with Wunderground blogs and ready for more hilarious goof-offs in the winter. I am sure bloggers like TheRasberryPatch will keep me on my toes and let me know if I make a bad forecast, lol. So overall this evening I am saying live in the moment and not in the future. Have a wonderful evening!!! Stay warm!!!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 10/19)
A 1028mb high pressure system sits parked over the region for Sunday and Monday keeping cooler conditions funneled over the Northeast region. Meanwhile a rapidly intensifying coastal storm is moving northeast out towards the shipping lanes causing increased surf along New England and parts of coastal New Jersey. Winds are also high in the northwest quadrant with some occasional 35mph gusts along coastal regions. Precipitation though should generally stay offshore except for some .01 QPF near Cape Cod. Meanwhile a very strong cold front with some cold air will be funneling across the Great Lakes during the day Monday. Downsloping winds should keep clouds away from Pennsylvania until Monday night when a cirrus deck approaches western Pennsylvania. 5C isotherms remain parked over Pennsylvania keeping temperatures at seasonal values for Monday. For Tuesday the cold front moves quickly across the northeast with rapidly falling heights. Some light rain showers will accompany the front with QPF generally less than .25inches. Areas in southern Pennsylvania may not see any precipitation. Rapidly falling heights below 0C in the 925-850mb range will cause some precipitation to change to snow across the highest of elevations in Pennsylvania generally above 2300ft during the day Tuesday. Marginal surface 2m temperatures will prevent any accumulation. During the night Tuesday some residual moisture combined with orographic lift will aid some widespread snow showers from the Laurel Highlands up north through the northwest mountains. A dusting of snow may occur on some peaks near Bradford and near Mt. Davis and Blue Knob. Valley locations will not see any precipitation and downsloping conditions will prohibit any precipitation from reaching the Cumberland Valley on eastward. Across the north Poconos also I would not rule out some snow showers and even a dusting of snow. Isotherms continue to fall to nearly –5C during the day Wednesday. High pressure will move over the region capping off any chances of lake effect under an unfavorable flow (20degrees) from the north-northeast. Very cold conditions will persist during the day Thursday with 2m temperatures from the GFS generally under 10C statewide. High pressure (1032mb) remains parked over the region for Friday. Overnights will favor frosts, clear skies, light winds, and patchy valley fog with visibilities less than .25miles in deep river valleys of the Pine Creek Gorge. Overall though the period remains pretty quiet other than some early season snowflakes.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Weekly Forecasts" (Updated 10/19)
Monday- Another chilly day is on tap for Monday with a high pressure to the north over the region. After some very heavy frost and areas of fog in the morning, skies will clear for another beautiful fall day. Winds will be variable throughout the day and mostly calm. Some high cirrus may move in later in the day during Monday across western Pennsylvania ahead of the next front. Dewpoints will also be very low and in the 30s and 40s. High temperatures will be about 5-10degrees below normal with highs across the northwest mountains in the mid 50s, highs across the central mountains in the upper 50s, highs across the Susquehanna Valley in the lower 60s, and highs in the mid 60s in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia metro area. Monday night more clouds will overspread the region ahead of the coldest weather of the season behind a cold front. Lows will be milder than they have been, but still well below normal. Lows will range from the mid 30s across the north country to low 40s across the southern region.

Tuesday- Tuesday will be a slight transition day as a cold front approaches the region. Another weak low pressure will also accompany the front creating clouds and light rain showers across the state. Very cold air aloft will move in along with the front creating upper levels to drop below freezing. Elevations above 1800ft during the day Tuesday will see a transition from rain showers to snow showers. Surface temperatures will fall during the day. Highs Tuesday will be well below normal from the lower 50s across the north dropping to the low 40s by afternoon, and highs in the mid 50s across the south dropping into the upper 40s late. Rainfall amounts will be generally light and no more than .25inches. The lighter amounts will be found across southern Pennsylvania. As the flow turns more northwesterly some residual moisture combined with orographic lift will give way to snow showers across the mountains of Pennsylvania, especially in the Laurel Highlands and Northwest Mountains. Snowfall amounts may occur up to a dusting at the highest peaks above 2500ft. Also some areas across the Northeast Mountains will see some snow showers. Elsewhere clouds will clear from west to east with gradually falling temperatures along with a gusty northwest wind. Lows will be near the freezing mark in the mountains and in the mid 30s elsewhere in the valleys.

Wednesday- After a few morning flurries across the extreme north, skies will generally stay cloudy under a typical northwest flow with low stratus over the Laurel Highlands. Winds will be out of the northwest around 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph on the ridge tops. Downsloping conditions though will make for sunshine across eastern Pennsylvania, but it will not get warm out. High temperatures will be nearly 10degrees below normal with highs in the northwest mountains and Laurel Highlands in the upper 40s with low 50s elsewhere. Skies will clear for Wednesday night and winds will likely decouple. Wednesday night could be the coldest night of the season as radiational cooling conditions hit a max as dewpoints will be very low. Lows may even be in the upper teens across far northern Pennsylvania near Bradford if they can get clear skies. Elsewhere lows will range from the mid 20s to low 30s in the city centers.

Thursday- Sunshine will prevail after some heavy morning frost. Thursday will be the coldest daytime temperatures of the season with highs not even possibly over 50degrees as far south as Harrisburg. Across the north country high temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s. Highs will be nearly 20degrees below normal in some areas. And across far southeast Pennsylvania highs will be in the low 50s. For overnight skies will clear with calm winds. Overnight temperatures will be very cold once again with temperatures below freezing for many areas. Some patchy fog can also be expected after midnight.

Friday- After some morning frost and patchy valley fog limiting visibilities to less than 1mile, sunshine will prevail. Winds will shift from west-northwest to the southwest ahead of an approaching storm system for the weekend. Dewpoints will rise slightly up into the low 40s for most areas, which will be the highest values seen all week. Temperatures will still be 5-10degrees below normal with them generally in the 50s statewide. Overnight skies will be variably cloud ahead of the next storm system. Lows will be milder than they have been generally dropping in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Fall Foliage Outlooks" (Updated 10/19)
Conditions are quite in a varying position across Pennsylvania. Across northern Pennsylvania in counties such as Crawford, McKean, Warren, Potter, Tioga, Bradford, Susquehanna, Wayne, Sullivan, Cameron, Elk, Wyoming, Forest, and Venango Counties the fall foliage season has already peaked and now has turned mostly brown except for a few late turning oaks. Last weekend was there peak and now this cold weather and at times gusty winds have brought down the rest of the leaves. From the reports that I head, it was a beautiful foliage season across that area with epic views near Pine Creek Gorge in the Pennsylvania Grand Canyon. The central mountains of Pennsylvania are currently seeing their peak with Happy Valley, the Middle Susquehanna Valley, and the Delaware Valley (Poconos) the best viewing locations. Maples are still bright red with blotches of yellow color from the local Oak tree populations. Birches have also completely turned in the coal country. Out towards Pittsburgh color is still reported near peak or just approaching peak conditions. Many oaks are still green out that way. But with all of these frosts, conditions will quickly be changing. Across the Laurel Highlands peak conditions are now being reported with bright yellows, oranges, reds, and even purples. Out towards Mt. Davis, Blue Knob, and Laurel Summit are wonderful locations to get out and enjoy the fall colors. The new wind turbine farms should add for some interesting backgrounds for local pictures. Across other parts of southern Pennsylvania in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, Lehigh Valley conditions are being reported with colors approaching peak in about one week. Oaks have yet to really turn much, but most other trees have turned color with many maples even already have lost most of their leaves. The winds this past weekend have brought down many leaves. I expect by next weekend top viewing locations will be found in the South Mountain region, Lancaster Valley area, and the local ridges of Blue, Stony, Peters, Second, and Third Mountain. Hawk Mountain would also be a great daytrip with top hawk migrations occurring around this time up that way. Areas near Philadelphia in the Chester and Bucks County Valley locations should be approaching peak conditions by Halloween. And lastly up towards the lakes region in Erie County warmer lake temperatures have inhibited the real cold air felt elsewhere, so peak conditions are slightly delayed compared to other locations up north, but I would expect peak in a few days. Local fall foliage is running about 20-25days earlier than last year, which is quite interesting for comparison. Enjoy the beauty of Fall for the last week or two in October, because as we enter November things will definitely be more brown. Here is a website for more information on Pennsylvania Fall Foliage... Link.

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 10/20)
We have now entered peak wildfire season here in Pennsylvania. Now our forestfires are never very widespread or destructive for the most part, but still it should raise some eyebrows to watch for the possibility. Latest drought levels are reported slight drought conditions over northern and western Pennsylvania. These are also areas where already many leaves have fallen. With these dry humidity levels with dewpoints in the teens near Bradford, along with the gusty northwest wind and dry forest floors; I would not be surprised to see a few spotty brush fires reported. Last year around this time it was much warmer with similar dry conditions and many little brush fires were reported including one that was pretty destructive up in Clinton and Lycoming County. Also one was reported in Centre County along with a very small one in Dauphin County on the north side of Blue Mountain. It does not appear there is any natural ignition for any forest fires to develop during the next week, but still any tossed cigarettes or unwatched campfires with sparks could ignite an accidental fire. Responsibility is key to prevention. Looking across the United States the dry Southeast is at a heightened risk along with parts of California for possible forest fires. For this upcoming week there are a few chances of precipitation and winds should be generally light so I believe the worst of the heightened brush fire risk is over after today. But still stay tuned to any of your local park service for updates on the forest fire danger. Once again here is the criteria according to the State College NWS for fire development...Link.

Criteria for rapid initiation and spread of wildfires in PA:

1. Winds must be sustained at 15 mph (13 knots) for two hours or more, and

2. Minimum Relative Humidities (which usually occur in the afternoon) must be 30 percent or less, and

3. 10-hour Fuel Moistures must be 15 percent or less (and expected to remain there for two or more days).

Latest from State College NWS concerning fire threat this week...
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN LOW FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS CENTRAL PA FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED OVER MOST OF PA THROUGH FRIDAY. AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOMORROW...WINDS WILL LIKELY EXCEED RFW CRITERIA /GREATER
THAN 15MPH/ ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS. HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW...ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
CRITICAL VALUE /30 PERCENT RH/. THUS NO FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

COLLABORATED WITH PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY THIS AFTN. THEY ARE
REPORTING SPORADIC WILDFIRES AND ARE AWARE OF THE DRY CONDS AND
POTENTIAL WINDS TOMORROW. THEY WILL POLLING THEIR DISTRICTS FOR
SIG PROBLEMS AND WILL REPORT BACK IF NEEDED.-- End Changed Discussion --

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"A Look at Winter Predictions" (Updated 10/19)
Well looking at winter I want to talk about thaws. Every winter has its typical winter Thaw, which seems to be happening lately around New Years. Even during the coldest of winters there is always a winter thaw. The cold conditions cannot just keep occurring and at some points it just needs to become slightly more mild. During this time I call the pattern in a sense of reloading, where up in the Arctic the AO turns positive allowing cold air to build. Then as the AO shifts negative the cold air comes crashing down in the northern United States. Lately, almost every winter for the past five years it seems right around or after New Years it gets very mild with temperatures soaring up to the 60s nearly breaking records. That also occurred last winter. Then when the cold air reloaded across the Arctic it gets sent down to the Northeast during late January and February. The winter of 2006-7007 is a perfect example of this pattern. With this coming forecasted winter I do expect several winter thaws, even though I am calling for mostly below normal temperatures. So as these warm periods I would predict them to be in January and maybe late February as the pattern reloads. December is definitely looking to be the coldest and snowiest month, and then January may be warmer as the pattern reloads. So it will be interesting to watch this unfold. Even during the coldest and snowiest of winters like 1996 there were several periods of mild thaws, typically in January. But overall I am just mentioning the fact that we can expect milder periods this winter, but the overall pattern should favor colder than normal conditions. In other news looking across the United States the snow pack from the inner mountain west major snowstorm is beginning to dwindle, but the mountains still have a decent snow pack. I have even heard that some of the ski resorts have opened up with one or two trails for the early season. Looking across the Arctic the sea ice levels continuing to rapidly rise, which is a great sign and good news for non-glacier melting in Greenland. Ice levels are much, much higher than levels last year at this time.

Winter 2008-2009 forecast... Link.
Winter 2008-2009 forecast update... Link.

"Snow Depth Animations and Current Wind chills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 10/19)
Very, very interesting pattern is in store for the long term period here across the Northeast, almost too much to talk about in a short discussion. But since it is the long term I will not get too detailed, as most people know I put little faith in long term forecasts. But in any case a very deep trough is poised to approach the United States during the beginning of the week of Halloween. A strong low pressure should accompany ahead of the front, possibly in the form of a coastal storm. As that system pulls away, cold air will move over the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This air will definitely be the coldest of the season with high temperatures in the mid 40s as far south as south-central Pennsylvania. A clipper system is supposed to follow and reinforce the cold air right around Halloween. With heights down to nearly –8C in the 850s and surface temperatures in the 30s and 40s snowfall is definitely possible. Also looking at the pattern, it is very conductive to the chance of a widespread lake effect snow outbreak around Halloween with the GFS and EURO indicating snowflakes as far south as Harrisburg. The EURO, GFS, and CMC both indicate very amplified troughs for that time period with some model runs having the 0C isotherm along the Gulf Coast and the –10C isotherm along the NY-PA border. This forecast has been quite consistent now for the last week. The NAO is also headed negative around this time to nearly –2 and the PNA will be positive. Also the AO is showing signs of a negative value. The CPC also indicates the chance of well below normal temperatures across all of the east coast during this time period. It seems very likely that the month of October will close on the cold sign. As for snowfall chances, that remains to be seen. But look for many updates on these chances in the coming days. Stay warm!

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (October)
So September has now just about come to a close. Precipitation was above normal for most of the state of Pennsylvania, except for parts of western and extreme northwestern Pennsylvania. Temperature wise it was about 1-2degrees above normal for much of the state. My forecast called for normal temperatures along with above normal precipitation, so overall I am pleased with my forecast for September. The first half of the month was much warmer than normal followed by a cooler than normal second half of the month. So now we are in October, the height of the fall season, and many are wondering if we will have another scorcher like last year. Temperatures were into the 80s for much of the month along with an extremely late fall foliage season. As many bloggers have mentioned, they were swimming in pools during the first half of the month. By the end of the month finally many areas received a very late frost and freeze followed by a relatively cold November with an early snow around mid month. So for October here is what I am thinking...

Temperature- There does not seem to be quite an evident trend for temperatures for October. There does not seem to be one distinctive pattern setting up other than a consistent eastern United States trough. The NAO seems to be staying negative for next two weeks along with PNA mostly positive. AO index is also staying the majority of the time in the negative range. Also EURO long-range model supports Greenland blocking with a slight eastern trough. GFS has shows a similar pattern with cold and mild periods throughout much of the month. So overall I expect temperature values to be near normal with slightly below normal temperatures in some areas. I do not think we will be seeing any extreme warmth this month like last year.

Precipitation- Precipitation wise again there does not quite seem to be an evident storm track. I am thinking a typical October like setup occurs with a few dry cold fronts along with some wetter low-pressure systems. Around midmonth the long range GFS has consistently showed a large coastal storm so we will have to see what happens with that. Tropics are beginning to calm down, so I do not feel too confident on the east coast experiences another tropical system. So my forecast for precipitation is normal to slightly below normal. Overall I think October should be pretty consistent with 30-year historical means.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 4
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 32

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 6
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 0.02inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.61inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 17

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79. Zachary Labe
7:09 PM GMT on October 24, 2008
***New blog coming within the next hour or two.

TheRasberryPatch- Low of 30degrees here this morning. Frost was probably the heaviest it has been thanks to the close proximity of the air temperature and dewpoint.

jthal57- Thanks for your report.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
78. jthal57
2:29 PM GMT on October 24, 2008
Blizzard-pretty good freeze here this am with a low of 25.5F. Now we'll see what Saturday's rains will be!
77. TheDawnAwakening
1:36 PM GMT on October 24, 2008
Understood TheRaspberryPatch.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
76. TheRasberryPatch
11:27 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
a low of 31.6 this morning with frost.

Dawn - no phillies fan here. grew up in Towson, MD and Baltimore fan. not much of baseball fan these days because of the uneven playing field with the haves and havenots. baseball is nothing like it was back when i was growing up in the 60's, 70's and 80's.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
75. Zachary Labe
10:22 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
jthal57- Some cirrus moved in overnight so it did not quite get as cold. Now the clouds are thickening further. But still it is 31degrees outside this morning.

WeatherBobNut- I guess it has been since the remnants of Wilma since many areas have seen any October snowfall.

sullivanweather- Quite interesting. It seems the 0z EURO came a bit farther west again overnight, while the GFS fails to develop anything at all. The DGEX has also swayed from its original solution from a major interior snowstorm now to an offshore coastal storm. Still though I do not think there is a clear prediction. Many factors with placement of features.

weathergeek5- I think that will may be an embedded squall line towards the end of the rain shield that may be accompanied by damaging winds. I will highlight this forecast in my new blog coming later today towards evening.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
74. weathergeek5
10:06 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
Interesting storm this weekend details to follow but the temp outside shows 35 degrees but I think it is lower then that.

MT Holly weather service:

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES TOWARD THE GRTLKS AREA. A SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH
AND BRING A CDFNT TOWARD THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH ALL BUT THE EXTREME NE
HAVING SOME PRECIP BY DAYBREAK. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
DURING SATURDAY, WITH FROPA EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT THRU BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. PRECIP
SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM W TO EAST AFTER FROPA. THE IMPLICATION IS
THAT THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY, IF NOT COMPLETELY OVER BY 06Z
SUNDAY. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT IS LATE OCTOBER, THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THIS SET-UP. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL BUT THE EXTREME NRN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE
A WEAKENING H5 TROF AND ASSOCD HGT FALLS APPROACHING THE REGION.
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS HAVE THE TROF BECOMING NEG TILTED AS THE AXIS
MOVES TO THE NW.
THERE IS A VERY STRONG SELY LLJ...AOA 70KTS WHICH
WILL KEEP THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING. WHILE CAPE IS FCST TO BE
LOW (NOT UNCOMMON FOR LATE OCTOBER), THERE IS ALSO VERY STRONG SPEED
SHEAR AND STRONG UVV SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE STRONG WINDS. QPF VALUES LOOK TO
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. SINCE IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
DRY, NO MAJOR HYDROLOGIC PROBS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE COULD
BE AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THOSE PLACES THAT RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN OR TSTMS. ONCE AGAIN, GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --


Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
73. sullivanweather
9:08 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
It's been awhile since I've read any of the local discussions, so I decided to thumb through them this morning...

Check out what BGM has to say regarding next week...

INTERESTING SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD FOR WEDS-THURS AS
SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE COAST AND DEEPEN WHILE REACHING
NEW ENGLAND. GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MAINLY TOO FAR OUT TO SEA TO AFFECT
US WITH SIG PRECIP...HOWEVER...00Z ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST POTNL FOR SIG
STORM. BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE THE AIRMASS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...AND NOT JUST CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS AS 925 MB TEMPS WELL
BELOW ZERO
. WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY GIVEN THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY...WHICH TENDS TO COMPROMISE THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. WE
FEEL THAT GFS WILL TREND IT/S SOLUTION FURTHER WEST WITHIN ABOUT 3
DAYS PRIOR TO THE EVENT...WHICH SHOULD BRING IT CLOSER TO ECMWF
.
HAVE INCRSD PRECIP CHANCES ON TUES NITE-WEDS. THURSDAY SHOULD
FEATURE AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND
FLURRIES FOR NRN PA. TRIMMED GUIDANCE TEMPS ON WEDS BY ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES FROM MEX MOS GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS/PCPN HOLDING TEMPS IN THE
30S.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
72. WeatherBobNut
4:12 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
Hi Blizz, yes, appox about 10:30pm a brief snow shower blew through then right back to a heavy mist. Nothing major but interesting to see this early! ttysoon.

-Weather Bob
71. TheDawnAwakening
3:12 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
Thanks TheRaspberryPatch. Phillies Fan?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
70. TheRasberryPatch
3:04 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
Dawn - look up any city and the date you are looking for and it should bring it up in Wunderground of course. I went to a television station website and their almanac diverted me to wunderground and the date and year. good luck
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
69. TheDawnAwakening
2:24 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
Does anyone know when the first freeze of the season for the Northeast in the 2004-2005 winter season?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
68. jthal57
1:29 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
36F here already Blizzard. Could be close to mid to upper 20's Friday am.
67. Zachary Labe
12:41 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
DenverMark- It will be interesting. The urban areas of Philadelphia are under a freeze warning tonight. They are 47degrees as of 8pm with a dewpoint of 34degrees. I doubt the inner city will see a freeze, but there is a chance. If they do see a freeze it will be the earliest freeze in a pretty long time. For like the last few years they have not had a freeze until November.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
66. DenverMark
12:29 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
I wonder when the first freeze will occur in the big urban heat islands in Philly and NYC. It often takes until mid November or later in the big cities on the East Coast.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 6988
65. Zachary Labe
12:23 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
DenverMark- Thanks for finding out the reports for me. Denver seems to be having pretty similar weather to here in Harrisburg with highs in mid 50s and lows below freezing. Have a nice evening!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
64. DenverMark
12:19 AM GMT on October 24, 2008
Hi B92,
I just checked some snowfall amounts for Nebraska and northwest Kansas...most were not real impressive. 1-3" was common over most of the area. A few spots in central Nebraska got more. Gothenburg (along I-80 east of North Platte) picked up 5", and the max amount I found was 8" in Anselmo, NE (about 50 miles NNE of Gothenburg). Here in Denver it was a chilly but mostly sunny day, with lows in the mid 20s up to 30 downtown and highs in the mid 50s.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 6988
63. Zachary Labe
11:48 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
weathergeek5- Good evening!!! Be sure to report back your low temperature tomorrow morning! Yep, we are now getting to the time where I look at each model and each model run and make comparisons. In the Summer I mostly just use the GFS to make my forecasts, but sometimes the EURO. But now in the winter I use an endless number of resources. You may want to check out a new link I found. See comment #54.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
62. weathergeek5
11:37 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Hey bliz we have a freeze warning in effect for us so our growing season will end tonight. I am sad to see it go but I look forward to the storms of winter. You are correct the model flip flop has begun for the winter. I saw it in Sully's blog
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
61. Zachary Labe
11:10 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
TheDawnAwakening- Those answers will make for some interesting research for your book.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
60. TheDawnAwakening
10:23 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
I know Blizzard. They are connected but to what degree and what or how do they affect each other in the short term?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
59. Zachary Labe
10:05 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
TheDawnAwakening- I am no earthquake expert by any means, but I do believe that the faults and seismic activity are all inner related. This is a definite science we know little about. Discovery Channel and History Channel have had some great programs on such landslides producing Tsunamis. Really quite interesting.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
58. TheDawnAwakening
10:00 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Also largest earthquake produced tsunami wave was 22 feet in record, back in 1918 I believe or 1867.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
57. TheDawnAwakening
10:00 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Interesting what you said in my blog Blizzard. I will look into the book should I have time to do so. Also the threat is real, and I don't know where to go to find a correlation between the San Andreas Fault, The Puerto Rico Trench and the Cascadia subduction zone. I find it very strange if there is no correlation between the three to see another earthquake the same year from the San Andreas Fault and the Puerto Rico Trench. Puerto Rico is split in two by the Trench, example is the mountains on Puerto Rico. Also you are right about the on land landslides do produce Tsunamis, case in point was the Alaska wave in the 1950s. Largest wave on record, about 1,000 feet high.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
56. Zachary Labe
9:24 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
wxgeek723- Thanks. Yep it seems once October is over we are in the heart of winter. It is like Fall comes to an abrupt end right after Halloween. Yep I saw the freeze warning, which even includes the Philadelphia city area. I am sort of surprised though, I still think a frost advisory for the city is adequate enough. I know you had your doubts about this winter, especially after how poor the last winters have treated you, but this is really the perfect pattern for a sign of a cold winter. A positive NAO in October is what we have and transitioning to a negative in November. Many believe there is a direct correlation between a cold winter and a positive NAO in October. So I guess we will see.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
55. wxgeek723
9:18 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
It dipped down to about 37 I think...? Walking to school this morning was brutal. I can't believe I need winter clothes already. I like how in that entry you mentioned how fast time flies. I know exactly what you mean. I awlays feel like the foliage should be longer. And I did wake up to frost the other day. And there's a Freeze Warning in effect. This winter could be interesting.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3588
54. Zachary Labe
9:10 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
***New link added to my list on the right side of the screen. This link may come in handy for us model buffs. This is a link to the Earl Barker's model page with snowfall acumulations and indices for the computer models of the GFS, NAM, and ETA. Enjoy... Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
53. Zachary Labe
7:15 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Low of 29degrees here. That should be the final frost to kill any ragweed and such that made it through the first few frosts. I am looking foward to the rain too. This goes to show I could never live in the desert with sun everyday, lol. I need action.

TheDawnAwakening- I still think this could be a wind event, especially with the frontal passage. Winds aloft are pretty high and there should be some pretty steep lapse rates. As for next week, yes very well we could be watching a coastal low with possible a negatively tilted trough. If only this was January with a trough of this magnitude moving in.

JDinWPA- Beautiful day with a high of 55degrees here. These are the best of the fall days!

WeatherBobNut- Yep, I have to go stop by his blog. I also think the low pressure will be off the coast, but it may affect coastal New England and Maine along with Canadian Maritimes. I like the GFS solution sort of right now with the 12z run. I do think many areas will see first snowflakes of season though next week. Any flurries up your way the other night? I heard some were spotted in Old Forge. For rainfall I think we are talking a good soaking with maybe 1-2inches for many areas. I will have a blog out Friday night for more details.

edhanna- Thanks. Looking forward to a great season. It is always great seeing the previous winter's bloggers coming back for another season with more input.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
52. edhanna
6:55 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Hey Bliz, nice to see you back on for the winter, I look forward to reading your blogs.
51. WeatherBobNut
5:32 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Good afternoon Blizz, first off, i see charlesimages is back.

Did you see the euro and GFS? They are coming into agreement of a huge negatively tilted trough and spinning up a nice coastal low. I think it will be mainly offshore, but it'll be an interesting set-up here come Sunday night through Tuesday.

31.6 at my house this morning. How much rain do you think we'll get this weekend? ttysoon.

-Weather Bob
50. JDinWPA
1:32 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Good morning Bliz. Dipped to 27.6 this morning. Looks like it will be a beautiful day, especially if the wind dies down a bit.
49. TheDawnAwakening
12:10 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Coastal Low next week Blizzard? Wind event is looking less and less for this Saturday and Sunday event unless we can get some convection, but Sully says that should be for areas to our west.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
48. TheRasberryPatch
11:36 AM GMT on October 23, 2008
a low of 28.8 degrees clear skies and the moon is in the sky.
looking forward to some rain. we certainly need it.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
47. Zachary Labe
10:15 AM GMT on October 23, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Our rainfall is coming all at once. Several inches of rain is possible this weekend with the approach of a cold front and low pressure system. I will have more on this later.

JDinWPA- You were one of the lucky ones yesterday who managed to get out of the clouds. I believe Bradford's high yesterday was 39degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
46. JDinWPA
11:06 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
It was a pretty nice day here, relatively speaking of course. (as in nicer than yesterday) Cleared out around 10 AM and the winds were minimal all day, which lead to a balmy high of 55!
45. TheRasberryPatch
9:15 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Wow, Blizz. pretty intense look for next week.
high of 54.2 and blustery winds also.
btw - we really need a good dousing. 0.02" of rain for the month.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
44. Zachary Labe
9:15 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
cchamp6- First snow flakes of season are always exciting. Yea it is really early.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
43. cchamp6
9:11 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Saw a couple of flakes. Kind of depressing actually. Too early for the woodstove to be going like this.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
42. Zachary Labe
9:03 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
cchamp6- O yes quite possible. The models put an upper level low north of the Great Lakes with a quite significant lake effect snow outbreak with a northwesterly flow. Wow, that is cold, almost December like temperatures and wind chills. Any flurries? I heard some were reported in the Berkshires.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
41. cchamp6
8:59 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Blizz,

I was just checking the NWS discussion out of Albany. They are mentioning a possible early season SNOW storm for monday. YIKES!!

High temp. here today of only 42. Wind gusting to 32 mph.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
40. Zachary Labe
8:56 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
***O golly, I tell you the models are going crazy for next week. Both the 12z EURO and GFS are in similar correspondance next week for a major cold outbreak and possible lake effect snow. The crazy 12z soundings for Bradford, PA show nearly 12inches of snow using a 10:1 ratio. Most likely though if snow does accumulate it would follow a 7:1 type ratio. But no I am not forecasting 12inches of snow for Bradford, but I am starting to definitely think there will be some snow accumulations for the snowbelts and flurries elsewhere for next week. More on this in the coming days. Stay tuned! By the way cold day out there today with high of 52degrees here and blustery winds. Elsewhere across the state some areas did not make it out of the 30s.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
39. Zachary Labe
7:12 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Lol. Any snow we get in November most usually melts within a day or two. I just want to point out not that I think it will happen, but the 12z GFS points to a .5inches of snow accumulation for Harrisburg for next week. I though am starting to believe we may see our first snowflakes next week though. Still though confidence is pretty low.

TheDawnAwakening- Winds were extremely strong here yesterday and last night. Lots of minor damage reported across the region.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
38. TheDawnAwakening
3:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
... Wind Advisory in effect from 8 am this morning to 8 PM EDT
this evening...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect from 8 am this morning to 8 PM EDT
this evening for Cape Cod... Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket Island.

The combination of an intensifying low over Georges Bank this
morning... and strong Canadian high pressure building this afternoon
will cause north winds to quickly increase today.

Sustained winds will average 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph
possible across Cape Cod... Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket Island
today. Winds will gradually diminish tonight as the the ocean storm
heads further out to sea.

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds
this strong are capable of Downing small tree limbs and
branches... possibly causing isolated power outages. Driving can
also be difficult... especially for high profile vehicles.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
37. TheDawnAwakening
3:42 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Very interesting setup with a tropical disturbance that will be in the mix. The 18z GFS showed a weaker low, but I haven't checked the 6z GFS yet this morning.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
36. TheRasberryPatch
11:23 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
nice pictures Stan. I am not quite ready for snow yet. maybe by Thanksgiving. and i really don't want any snow on the ground until i get my Christmas lights up outside, which won't be until the first week in December or so.
Can't we wait until closer to Christmas for some accumulating snow. ha ha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
35. Zachary Labe
10:17 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
Stanb999- Lots of reports of light snow across the northern highlands of Pennsylvania. Wow, those pictures make me jealous, thanks for posting them! I am sure some areas received .5inches of snow to start the seasons first accumulating snow across the north.

TheDawnAwakening- Dean? Yep the weekend storm looks very interesting with chances of heavy rain, strong winds, flash freezes, and wrap-around light snow.

philliesrock- I have been looking into that factor, but I still am not sure on that negative of a NAO. If that would be the case, the transitions from negative to positive would probably lead to major snowstorms.

WeatherBobNut- I was upset to hear about it too. Anyways, it sure was wind. I recorded a max gust of 28mph, but I am sure it was stronger at times. Many fall leaves were taken down here too, but not as many probably as in your area.

TheRasberryPatch- Still looking very cold for our area next week in the 40s for highs.

JDinWPA- Yep, lol. Today will be another blustery day with many areas not getting out of the 40s.

weathergeek5- I heard what happened also. What ashame. So much drama on a weathersite, lol.

shoreacres- Lol, it sure is a swing of seasons from Maine to Texas this time of year. Many parts of Maine are seeing snow this morning. Also it is very chilly and going to stay cold up that way. Sort of a rude awakening. Thanks for stopping by!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
34. Stanb999
9:31 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Stan i am guessing that is a picture of snow, but it looks like a pic of the night sky with stars and the moon.


Just for you. :-)

Hosted on Fotki


Hosted on Fotki





Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
33. shoreacres
1:48 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
Blizzard ~

Well, at 6 a.m. tomorrow a friend is heading up to Lewiston, Maine for a week with her son. I stopped by her office this afternoon and sent her over here - she about had a fit.
Her biggest problem wasn't thinking about the cold - her biggest problem was trying to figure out how to adjust her travel gear. She'd sort of planned on jeans and a jacket and one little carry on. When I left she was muttering, "Gloves? Scarf? Coat? WHAT?!?!?!?"

So, while you ponder the return of the familiar, one poor Texas gal is pondering possible weather-armageddon. We long for cold, but we don't do it very well!

Have a great evening - enjoyed that first part of your post particularly. I'm a big fan of winter, though - I like the short days and long nights - of course, we get a little more light than you do.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
32. weathergeek5
1:40 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting WeatherBobNut:
Good evening Blizz, first off, i'm sad to hear about Charlesimages, he'll be missed, i don't know what happened there...

Boy, after the front blew through today, winds picked up to the teens and gusted to near 30 at times. Stripped a lot of trees bare, sure has that winter look to it around here so early.

Looking forward to the big rain event this weekend, looks like that tropical low will indeed merge with the storm coming in from the west. Maybe some flakes after midnight here, i'll let you know tomorrow if i see any. ttysoon, stay warm!

-Weather Bob


I Know what happened. You can send him WU mail and he will receive it.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
31. JDinWPA
1:35 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
Are you saying that I won some graupel? Wow, I'm speechless. lol.
30. TheRasberryPatch
1:08 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
Stan i am guessing that is a picture of snow, but it looks like a pic of the night sky with stars and the moon.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
29. Stanb999
12:28 AM GMT on October 22, 2008
Well it is 33F Light precipitation.

So it means.

Hosted on Fotki


Yup we got some snow.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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