Cooler air by week's end...

By: Zachary Labe , 12:23 AM GMT on October 13, 2008

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 10/12)
Good evening!!! I say this every year, but there is nothing else quite like a Fall in Pennsylvania. Magnificent colors dapple through the forest canopy. Shadows begin to lengthen with each passing day, and clear blue sky causes endless visibilities. It seems this season with each passing day is more and more fall color. See more information on fall color in fall foliage section below. So this weekend has just been beautiful and definitely work getting out in the outdoors with temperatures in the 70s, but still with lows in the low to mid 40s. Some people may describe this as an "Indian Summer," and I would agree with that. This is probably the last bit of real warmth we will see for quite a long time, because as the month progresses the sun's rays continue to lower in the sky along with the allowance for more polar air to penetrate the Northeast region. So enjoy this warmth while it lasts for the first half of this week, and I would not be surprised if we hit 80degrees either Monday or Tuesday for many areas south of I-80. But all great things seem to come to an end, and that will be the case as an impressive cold front comes crashing through the region with the coldest air of the season. Yes, I am using the word cold and not chilly. Some areas this weekend may not see highs out of the mid 40s with mostly cloudy skies. And it seems the "cold air" wants to stick around for a while. Fall leaves will probably reach peak in many northern areas this coming weekend.

There has been one change on my blog for the standard format. I said my goodbyes to the gardening outlook section last week, so now as this is a seasonal transition blog I am devoting a section to winter predictions and forecasts. This will continue to update all of the indices I have mentioned for my forecast. Also this will look at places around the United States that may and are seeing premature winter like conditions. There will also be links to the Winter Forecast Blog and Winter Forecast Update Blog. Continue to feel free to post your winter outlooks, as that will be a major discussion point in the next few weeks to come. Today is the 12th of October so we are about midway through the month. Also I was taking a look through my weather journal from last year; the first snowflakes occurred in November 9 for my area, which is less than a month away. So for now enjoy these wonderful Fall conditions we are under. Have a great day!!!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 10/12)
A large ridge of high pressure sits bubbled over the North Carolina/Virginia border with a max pressure 1032mb. This will continue to pump up extreme abnormal heights for this time of year with the 15C isotherm nearly over the region, which is several deviations above normal. This large ridge will continue to slide out of the region Tuesday and Wednesday, but still keeping the flow southwesterly. Dewpoints though will continue to be dry around 50degrees. The large storm system over the western United States producing all of the snow will move northeastward into Canada, while a strong but dry cold front marches east across the lower 48. The front will begin to slow down as it moves eastward across the Ohio Valley. And by Thursday the front moves into the western portions of Pennsylvania. QPF will generally be light around .1inch. Rapidly falling heights behind the front below 10C will move into the region with a dry northwesterly flow. By Friday the 0C isotherm moves near the I-80 corridor. High pressure will be situated across the Midwest, so the flow will turn north-northwest near the 320degree mark. Clouds will be over the region with a slightly unstable flow with CAPE values up to 50, so there is enough to produce light rain across the far northwest and cumulus clouds elsewhere. A weak disturbance will rotate along the trough for Friday out in the Midwest and slides south of Pennsylvania during the day Saturday. This will reinforce the cold air bringing the coldest air of the season with isotherms near (-1)-(-4)C across the state. Surface temperatures remain very cold for highs and lows. Solutions diverge with a possible scenario of a coastal low forming and heading up the east coast. The GFS has been consistent with forming a low pressure off the Middle Atlantic, but most runs show it heading out to sea. But the latest 18z run from October 12 show precipitation being thrown back into Pennsylvania with QPF near .5inches. I am not sold on that solution, so I am buying the out to sea solution at this point. I do want to note something very interesting. That 18z run shows temperatures at the surface for Saturday night in the upper 30s for eastern Pennsylvania with precipitation over the region. Also 850s are below freezing, so yes the 18z run does develop mixed precipitation over northeastern Pennsylvania. I highly, highly doubt this will happen, but I thought I would show everyone just to make them shiver, lol. So weather for this weekend remains a little questionable with maybe some rain for Saturday night. But one thing I am for sure is the coldest air of the season is moving in this weekend. Stay tuned for more updates.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Weekly Forecasts" (Updated 10/15)
Monday- The ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen turning the flow southwesterly pumping up the heat up the Appalachians. The warmest air since mid September will move into the region with highs nearly 15degrees above normal. Skies will generally be clear, but there could be some afternoon cirrus. Dewpoints will be low and in the low 50s. Highs will be near 80degrees from I-80 southward and mid 70s to the north of that. Sunshine will prevail, but as evening approaches temperatures will drop once again. Dewpoints will though be slightly higher than previous nights creating some patchy valley fog. Lows will be in the mid 40s across the north to low 50s in the south.

Tuesday- Another beautiful day is in store across the region. The ridge of high pressure in the southern Middle Atlantic will continue to dominate the region, but it will slowly be moving eastward. Highs will still be nearly 10-15degrees above normal. Cloud cover will generally be non-existent though some orographic lift could aid cumulus development in the Laural Highlands and northwest mountains. Highs will be near 80degrees in the major city metro areas. Elsewhere highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Dewpoints will be in the mid 50s. Tuesday night will be another cool night with ideal radiational cooling. Lows will drop to wet bulb levels with them ranging from the upper 40s across the north to low 50s across the south. A bit of cirrus cloud cover may move over the region later in the night ahead of an advancing frontal system.

Wednesday- The ridge of high pressure will be moving to the east and a front will be approaching from the west. We are caught in a squeeze position, which usually generates warmer than normal temperatures with slightly higher dewpoints. Cloud cover will be partly cloudy with a cirrus deck and possible afternoon cumulus in the western part of the state. Highs will be near 5-10degrees above normal. Highs will be in the upper 60s across western areas, which is cooler than most areas thanks to some cloud cover. Elsewhere highs will be in the 70s. Overnight Wednesday some light rain could move in for western areas with cloud cover over much of the state of Pennsylvania. It will be a very mild night with lows statewide in the 50s.

Thursday- The cold front continues across the state of Pennsylvania with any precipitation rapidly drying up after maybe some morning light rain across western Pennsylvania with rainfall totals less than .25inches. I also would not rule out a thunderstorm. Clouds will be over the state with near normal temperatures for most areas. Highs will be in the 60s statewide, except for a few 70degree readings in the Philadelphia area. Cooler conditions will funnel in later in the afternoon and evening. Overnight Thursday clouds will be scattered over the region with some light 5mph northwest winds. The northwest flow will inhibit radiational cooling for the most part keeping temperatures warmer than they could have been. Still lows will drop in the low 40s across the northwest and mid to upper 40s elsewhere. Metro areas will see lows in the low 50s. Clouds will break up as the night progresses.

Friday- Much cooler air will funnel into the region with a north-northwest flow. Moisture from Lake Erie will cause a few lake effect rain showers across far northwestern areas. Clouds will be partly cloudy during the day, especially in the afternoon hours. Highs will be near 5degrees below normal. Highs will be in the low 50s across the north country and highs in the low to mid 60s across the south. Friday night will be very chilly, and if winds decouple lows could drop in the upper 20s across the north and mid 30s elsewhere with some frosts and freezes possible in areas that still are in a growing season. Stay tuned for more updates on this potential.

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Fall Foliage Outlooks" (Updated 10/12)
Well for a few areas across the state of Pennsylvania we are entering peak foliage time. Take a spin this Columbus Day down the famous Rt 6 in northern Pennsylvania, because foliage conditions have been reported near Peak across many areas, especially for northern hardwood maples. The Poconos and the Pennsylvania Grand Canyon areas are reporting beautiful fall foliage with vibrant and bright colors of reds and yellows. Also many areas in the central mid portion of the state from Mercer County to Centre County to Carbon County are reporting 50% fall color change with many of the maples of all varieties at peak conditions. Bald Eagle Mountain is really shining these last couple of nights with bright yellows and dotted reds. Some of the oaks though are still green. Peak conditions in this central region can probably be expected by the end of next weekend towards the start of next week. The coal country of Pennsylvania in the Schuylkill County region is reporting nearly 40% color change with many of the Birch trees near peak conditions in the limestone mountains. Areas in the Laural Highland ridge tops will be nearing peak conditions in about one week. Many trees in this region are of the oak variety and taking slightly longer to change color. Across southern Pennsylvania to the south of the ridge and valley region, conditions are being reported at 25% with now just about all conditions reporting color. Even local mountainsides definitely have color. Across counties such as Berks, Lehigh, and Northampton conditions are slightly farther ahead than areas just to the west. And finally across the Philadelphia suburbs conditions have noticeable changed with conditions near 15% with mostly maple trees changing color. Some of the roadside poisons and sumacs may be misleading to the actual color of the countryside. Warm days and cool nights are perfect for bringing out bright colors, also dry conditions brings out the colors. These cold nights and warm days we have been having are just about perfect for leaf changes. I see a noticeable difference each morning I get up with the color change. As for peak changes they are running about normal across the north and slightly earlier than normal across the south. Also interestingly enough we are running about 20-25days earlier for color changes than we were last year. So get this beautiful Monday and take a drive through the beautiful Pennsylvania countryside. Feel free to post pictures below! Here is a website for more information on Pennsylvania Fall Foliage... Link.

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 10/12)
We are just about into the heart of wildfire season here in Pennsylvania. Our wildfire conditions from season to season never amount to anything much, especially considering what happens to the Western United States, but still it bears monitoring this time of year when things are dry. We have not had much rain here in eastern areas for nearly two weeks it seems. Some areas across western Pennsylvania, though, saw nearly .5inches of rain a few days ago. Northern areas in counties such as McKean, Potter, Tioga, and Bradford Counties are reporting the driest of conditions statewide. That is also where the peak of fall foliage is with leaves covering the forest floor. And that is also where the driest of dew points are located. I would put that area at a heightened risk of wildfire conditions, but luckily winds are light and variable preventing rapid spread of anything that develops. Elsewhere conditions are still prone to development, but not exactly ideal conditions. Last year several large forest fires occurred this time of year, partly thanks to all the heat we had in the beginning of the month. Lycoming, Centre, and Clinton Counties saw the worst of the first conditions. So for this coming week take precautions when outdoors. Across the United States conditions are very prone to fire development in California with red flag warnings up. But overall the United States is pretty quiet with red flag conditions. Once again here is the criteria according to the State College NWS for fire development...Link.

Criteria for rapid initiation and spread of wildfires in PA:

1. Winds must be sustained at 15 mph (13 knots) for two hours or more, and

2. Minimum Relative Humidities (which usually occur in the afternoon) must be 30 percent or less, and

3. 10-hour Fuel Moistures must be 15 percent or less (and expected to remain there for two or more days).

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"A Look at Winter Predictions" (Updated 10/12)
I just finished up my blog on my latest winter prediction updates, but this section in my weekly blog is going to look at early appearances of winter across the country along with changing conditions in nature. Also I may choose to have updates on indices such as the winter ENSO situation. Anyways a major winter storm just occurred across the Western United States with snowfall affecting nearly six states with some areas in the higher elevations seeing over four feet of snow. Even valley locations saw wet and heavy snow accumulating sometimes over 6inches causing tree limbs to fall and power lines to come down. Many higher elevations over 10,000ft will hardly see any snow melting in the coming weeks even with warmer air, so this will be a nice build-up to the western United States snow pack for the ski season, and even provide water for surrounding communities. Many areas in Alaska have been seeing above normal snowfall to start out their winter season. We have now started into the season where everyday there is some type of winter advisories in the state of Alaska.

Looking around at our natural surroundings we can definitely tell winter is coming with not only the leave changes, but also insect and animal patterns. It seems there have been abnormal amounts of spider webs this season, and abnormal amounts of those pesky stinkbugs. Also squirrels have been running around like it would be mating season, but they have only been gathering acorns and such to store for the winter. Reporting from the Dutch County, the Amish have reported that the horse’s winter coats have come in very heavy, which could potentially mean a cold winter. Pennsylvania Dutch standards have lots of interesting weather folklore. Many areas are also getting ready for hunting season; meanwhile warm water fishing is just about over. Hard to believe, but already they are beginning to stock trout in area creeks and lakes for ice fishing this winter. There are plenty of other changes according too.

Winter 2008-2009 forecast... Link.
Winter 2008-2009 forecast update... Link.

"Snow Depth Animations and Current Wind chills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 10/12)
Yep it is starting to get that time where in my long term outlooks I begin to look for potential snowy patterns. But not yet, so do not get worried. Currently the NAO is positive, which corresponds exactly to the weather pattern we are in with a large ridge over the east. But as we head later in the month the NAO is progged to go negative and the PNA heading positive favoring east coast troughing. It looks like my monthly outlook for October should pan out nicely in the temperature department. Troughs look to be coming down out of Canada in the Midwest and then should head eastward. The pattern looks pretty progressive with troughs not lasting long, but they still should be the overall pattern with below normal temperatures. Precipitation wise I still do not really see any good chances of rain. And looking at the size of some of these troughs, I would not be surprised for some more areas to see snow flurries before the month's end. The CPC is calling for below normal temperatures for the second half of the month also. So overall the pattern looks very similar to the beginning of October this year with below normal temperatures and occasional lake effect precipitation. This pattern looks to continue through the beginning of November. Also I do want to add that some of the GFS model runs are indicating very deep troughs to move across the east with some having the 0C isotherm as far south as the Gulf Coast. While this is not quite feasible, it still shows that some very chilly air will be moving southward.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (October)
So September has now just about come to a close. Precipitation was above normal for most of the state of Pennsylvania, except for parts of western and extreme northwestern Pennsylvania. Temperature wise it was about 1-2degrees above normal for much of the state. My forecast called for normal temperatures along with above normal precipitation, so overall I am pleased with my forecast for September. The first half of the month was much warmer than normal followed by a cooler than normal second half of the month. So now we are in October, the height of the fall season, and many are wondering if we will have another scorcher like last year. Temperatures were into the 80s for much of the month along with an extremely late fall foliage season. As many bloggers have mentioned, they were swimming in pools during the first half of the month. By the end of the month finally many areas received a very late frost and freeze followed by a relatively cold November with an early snow around mid month. So for October here is what I am thinking...

Temperature- There does not seem to be quite an evident trend for temperatures for October. There does not seem to be one distinctive pattern setting up other than a consistent eastern United States trough. The NAO seems to be staying negative for next two weeks along with PNA mostly positive. AO index is also staying the majority of the time in the negative range. Also EURO long-range model supports Greenland blocking with a slight eastern trough. GFS has shows a similar pattern with cold and mild periods throughout much of the month. So overall I expect temperature values to be near normal with slightly below normal temperatures in some areas. I do not think we will be seeing any extreme warmth this month like last year.

Precipitation- Precipitation wise again there does not quite seem to be an evident storm track. I am thinking a typical October like setup occurs with a few dry cold fronts along with some wetter low-pressure systems. Around midmonth the long range GFS has consistently showed a large coastal storm so we will have to see what happens with that. Tropics are beginning to calm down, so I do not feel too confident on the east coast experiences another tropical system. So my forecast for precipitation is normal to slightly below normal. Overall I think October should be pretty consistent with 30-year historical means.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 4
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 32

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 6
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 0.02inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.61inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 17

Codorus State Park (Blizzard92)
Codorus State Park
Codorus State Park (Blizzard92)
Codorus State Park
Beautiful Pennsylvania Fall Weather... (Blizzard92)
Gettysburg... Near Little Round Top and Devil's Den
Beautiful Pennsylvania Fall Weather...
Beautiful Pennsylvania Fall Weather... (Blizzard92)
Gettysburg... Near Little Round Top and Devil's Den
Beautiful Pennsylvania Fall Weather...

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79. Zachary Labe
11:46 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- It is pretty typical for dewpoints to rise after winds calm down. When the winds calm down the mixing of the dry conditions seems to cease. I would still expect the dewpoint to drop later tonight with temperatures falling in the 20s.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
78. TheRasberryPatch
11:43 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
its 40 degrees now and the dewpoint is actually increasing from a low @ 4pm of 24, it is now 31 degrees
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
77. Zachary Labe
11:32 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
Stanb999- Stay warm up there! I have a new blog coming out in about 1hour detailing all about the flurry chances for your area. Be sure to post any pictures of the snow even if it is a coating. Most of us on this blog are crazy snowlovers, lol!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
76. Stanb999
11:27 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
Been lighting the wood stove nightly since Thursday, Noaa is calling for light snow for Tuesday night-Wed. morning, dusting on the high elevations (thats me). Leaves are mostly gone.


Looks like old man winter is coming to NEPA a little early this year.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
75. Zachary Labe
11:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
WeatherBobNut- Already 44degrees here!!! Dewpoint is in the 20s, but I was checking and I had a dewpoint of 21degrees this afternoon. That is really low for October standards. We will see about early November. I am sure after this cold pattern things will have to reload up in Northern Canada, but with a negative NAO and positive PNA through early November, I have a hard time seeing that it will very mild. Also with sun lowering each day, climatology does not really favor any more heat waves.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
74. WeatherBobNut
10:28 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
Hi Blizz, brrrrrrrrrr! already 50.6 here and as the sun sets, the temp is falling fast. Just checking the dewpoint and it's 24 so i expect a low in the mid 20's in the morning!

Euro and GFS continue to show a huge trough next week, snow showers from the finger lakes of Ny to northern Pa. Points west to the Great lakes.

However, GFS has November coming in on a milder note, but that could change. ttysoon. Stay warm!

-Weather Bob
73. Zachary Labe
9:20 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
croftj- That's ashame. Still awaiting the first killing frost here, but that is coming tonight.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
72. croftj
9:15 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
Well, I guess you know it's the end of the summer when your basil gets whacked by the freeze last night! Not to mention the tomatoes. I was hoping covering the basil would help, but it didn't. At least not the sweet basil. The Thai basil took it well. So did the thyme and oregano. Fortunately we had some in a pot which we brought in overnight. Our low was 25.8 at my house here near East Brady.

71. Zachary Labe
9:11 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
jthal57- Yep looks like a very chilly end of the month.

weathergeek5- Keep me updated on your low temperature.

philliesrock- Probably not, but thanks for sharing. How far south are the snow showers? I saw the mean anomalies for the GFS and EURO during that time period and they both have major troughs.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
70. philliesrock
8:46 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
The ECMWF has some snow showers for next week.

Am I allowed to post maps from a pay site? That's where I get my ECMWF precip maps...
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
69. weathergeek5
7:42 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
Here in Delaware we have a frost advisory. However on Wednesday it could get close to freezing here maybe a little below. I had to put on the sweat pants on this morning
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
68. jthal57
4:43 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
Blizz-haven't looked at it at length. Interesting! Below avg. temps are here to stay for the rest of the month it appears!
67. Zachary Labe
4:33 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
jthal57- Yep the growing season should officially end tonight for all counties except Delaware and Philadelphia Counties. Have you looked at the long term GFS? It is talking snow flurries as far south as the Mason-Dixon line around Halloween.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
66. jthal57
4:20 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
Blizzard-Low of 29F here this AM. Whatever survived the previous patchy frosts is pretty much done now, or will certainly be after tonight's freeze! High of 58F on Saturday. Was at my college homecoming, what a beautiful day to be outside!
65. Zachary Labe
4:14 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- The last couple of nights my temperatures for lows have been very warm. The winds do not want to seem to decouple here allowing for radiational cooling like you have been getting. But tonight will be different and I expect temperatures in the 20s. Yep that is a large coastal storm causing winds up to 40mph on some of the New England shorelines along with high surf. Coastal flood advisories are out for the east coast.


***New Blog coming today detailing a few little SNOW chances and more cold weather.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
64. TheRasberryPatch
3:35 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
Wow, Blizz you were high on the temps for the evening. I had a good frost with a low 30.9 degrees. my tabasco leaves are half blackened from the frost. celery still looks fine.
what is that huge cloud bank off the coast? was that a nor'easter off the coast? if so probably stirring up the surf.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
63. Zachary Labe
1:44 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- It is another beautiful day to work outside today. Our growing season will end tonight. Low this morning was 36degrees here, kept up by those pesky winds.

JDinWPA- Thanks for your report. Hope your garden did not fare too bad.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
62. JDinWPA
1:27 PM GMT on October 19, 2008
Hi Bliz. The low reading of the morning was 27.1 degrees. Everything is rather sad looking and droopy.
61. TheRasberryPatch
12:42 AM GMT on October 19, 2008
good evening, Blizz. I had a high of 59.5 degrees today. another great saturday to work outside. i loved it.
it cooled off considerably by late afternoon. it is now 44.2 with a dewpt of 32.8

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
60. Zachary Labe
8:39 PM GMT on October 18, 2008
***Good afternoon!!! Today marks the first sub-60degree high day for the season so far. My high was 57degrees today. Dewpoint is currently 28degrees. It is going to be a very cold night, but the key to how cold it is going to get is if the winds are going to decouple. I believe they will giving way to a killing frost for many areas outside the Philadelphia region. Sunday night should be even colder. And then mid next week, even colder! Anyways be sure to post morning lows here tomorrow morning. Have a great rest of your day!!! Look for possibly a new blog tomorrow for forecasts for next week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
59. Zachary Labe
4:08 PM GMT on October 18, 2008
JDinWPA- Yea it is a chilly one out there. It is still 49degrees here with mostly cloudy skies and a northwest breeze. Tonight and should be a very cold too along with Sunday night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
58. JDinWPA
3:40 PM GMT on October 18, 2008
Good morning Bliz. Dropped to 33.1 here last night. Probably would've been colder if that cloud deck hadn't moved in during the night. It was clear as a bell when I went to bed.

I moved the last of the house plants in yesterday. Picked most of the remaining peppers but have kept a few potted ones to move closer to the front door, mostly to keep them fresher, longer. There's too many sitting in the frig at the moment. lol.

It's starting to clear here. Looks like the rest of the day will be decent. Have a good one yourself!
57. Zachary Labe
3:22 PM GMT on October 18, 2008
WeatherBobNut- I am hoping for some type of rain in the near future. Conditions are pretty dry here, but it the dry season of Fall. It seems that through the entire 384hr GFS period that continued cooler than normal conditions will persist with troughs moving in a progressive pattern, but still continuing to funnel out of Canada.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
56. WeatherBobNut
3:16 PM GMT on October 18, 2008
Good morning Blizz, yes, i did see the 0z GFS. Quite interesting. Did you see the o6z GFS this morning for 180-186 hrs? Which would be next Saturday evening into Sunday? WOW, quite a storm! If that pans out, someone is in for quite a rain event. Plus i'm excited over the set-up. If this is a pattern of storms to come, we're in good shape for some good snowstorms. We'll see.

31.3 was my low here. ttysoon.

-Weather Bob
55. Zachary Labe
3:15 PM GMT on October 18, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good morning!!! 40degrees was the low here, but I had consistent wind all night long preventing radiational cooling. You will definitely get a killing frost in the coming days, and it could happen several times this week. I would not be surprised to see upper 20s Sunday night. I picked the last of my vegetables last weekend. This weekend I hope to empty the rain barrel and bird bathes. Also time to put covers over outdoor water spigots to prevent freezing.

cchamp6- Good morning!!! You should have killing frosts almost every morning during the next seven days. It is a beautiful fall day today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
54. cchamp6
1:22 PM GMT on October 18, 2008
Good morning,

Low here of 30 this morning. Has been a great stretch of weather.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
53. TheRasberryPatch
11:46 AM GMT on October 18, 2008
I had an outside low occuring at this time of 35.6F. some light frost on the grass in spots. still not a killing frost for my area. i have celery and tabasco pepper plant still thriving. the pepper plant looks so nice with yellows and oranges and reds. time to pick them and make the sauce. if anyone ever does this make sure you do it outside.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
52. Zachary Labe
10:54 AM GMT on October 18, 2008
WeatherBobNut- Thanks. The 0z GFS is quite cold this morning for this coming week with Wednesday it has the -10C isotherm down through New York State with widespread snow showers in New England. 2m Temps for that period are below freezing south to the southern Middle Atlantic. That is surely pretty chilly for this time of year.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
51. WeatherBobNut
3:14 AM GMT on October 18, 2008
Hi Blizz, already down to 38.8 here and falling so it may bottom out around between 30 and 32 and probably some 20's farther north. Yes, the models look quite interesting to say the least, as always, time will tell. I've been enjoying the crisp days with the beautiful colors as well, great pics here on your blog. ttysoon,

-Weather Bob
50. Zachary Labe
7:34 PM GMT on October 17, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good afternoon!!! Yep, you are absolutely correct. I have been using the term Indian Summer more in a non-technical sense. But you are right a true Indian Summer is a period of 80degree high temperatures after the first killing frost. I do not think this applies to any areas in Pennsylvania during the past week.

WeatherBobNut- Isn't it great out there? It is a true autumn day; high here has been 59degrees. Long ranger is looking quite interesting from both the EURO, CMC, and GFS with them bring trough after trough along with some strong cut-off lows to the mix, should be interesting. It appears like several nights during the next several days will see widespread 20s. Tonight though it appears the winds might not decouple.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
49. WeatherBobNut
4:07 PM GMT on October 17, 2008
Good afternoon Blizz, Well, here it is...the cold air has moved in. Had a morning low of 42 here and expecting much lower temps tonight, and i wouldn't be suprised to see widespread 20's in some of the northern mountains.

There is talk of our first flurries here by next Tuesday by the local mets.

The GFS longer range is already showing fantasy BIG storms and really has those other folks over at accuweather buzzing...lol. I think the real winter will set in the week of Thanksgiving. However, i do think we will see flurries, but that will be confined to the higher elevations, not the valley cities in which where i live. ttysoon...

-Weather Bob
48. TheRasberryPatch
12:23 PM GMT on October 17, 2008
I had a low of 41.1 today. dewpoint got down to 37.1
I thought Indian Summer was a day or days with highs above 80 after a killing frost. is that correct?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
47. Zachary Labe
10:25 AM GMT on October 17, 2008
jthal57- I had heard that the Lehigh Valley is really getting some nice color the past few days. These cool nights coming up should make for peak color for quite a few locations in the next 5 days.

pittsburghnurse- Lol, I try to make my weekly forecast section easier to understand than other sections, so maybe that section would be to some help. Feel free to ask questions any time. We lost a decent amount of leaves on some trees yesterday and last night when the front went through with the gusty winds. Maples still though are beautiful around here. I am expecting a possible frost or freeze both Saturday night and Sunday night for many areas. I am not a fan of analog years and do not really do any research into, but some winters people have mentioned are 1950-1951, 2000-2001, and some have even mentioned 1995-1996. Thanks for stopping by!

JDinWPA- Yep, similar conditions here. Almost 20degrees colder this morning than it was yesterday with some very dry dewpoints here. If the winds decouple for your area I would not be surprised to see upper 20s. This is a very, very chilly air mass with dry air. And the high pressure will be setting up perfect for radiational cooling.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
46. JDinWPA
2:34 AM GMT on October 17, 2008
Hi Bliz. One of those topsy-turvy days where it's warmer in early morning than in the afternoon. Not dramatically, but enough to know that Indian summer is over. It was really nice while it lasted.

Didn't get much rain from the front, .15". But that little bit of rain and the accompanying wind blew down a number of leaves. sigh.

Looks like I'll be below freezing come Saturday morning. sigh again. I hope no lower than 30 though.
45. pittsburghnurse
1:08 AM GMT on October 17, 2008
Hi Blizz, been lurking on your blog trying to learn and understand technical weatherspeak. I I'm afraid I'm hopelessly lost. This blonde brain seems to be closed for the season lol.

Here in the city, the locusts are 80% bare. I got a kick out of just watching the little leaves float on the breeze like buttery snow flakes. Red maples began dropping significantly a couple of days ago. Some of the previously orange foliage is brightening to gold. The sumacs are firey. Oaks are now turning and there is still some green. We'll be heading into the Laurels on Sunday for a visit to Seven Springs for their autumn fest. Hopefully the leaves will hang for just a few more days. I want to get some pics to post. We should be getting our first frost either this week or next, right on schedule.

Blizz, is there any analog year you can associate your winter forecast with? I'm trying to get an idea of whether I should purchase snow tires this year.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
44. jthal57
12:44 AM GMT on October 17, 2008
Blizzard-Haven't had too much free time lately. Finally got the garden cleared out. The fall colors have now really established themselves around here.
43. Zachary Labe
9:09 PM GMT on October 16, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Every year it seems there is a wide tree variance in changes in color for different time periods. I actually saw those maples last weekend down in Hershey, and I am sure they are quite beautiful today. On a side the note the GFS has made its first print out of accumulating snow in Pennsylvania, near Bradford off course. Now I highly doubt this will actually occur, but it is an idea to the type of air mass coming next week. Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
42. TheRasberryPatch
8:43 PM GMT on October 16, 2008
not getting much leaf drop with my pears and maples. the birch trees in my neighborhood are yellowing and dropping.
a lot of the maples that line 322 traveling into Hershey have nice color. what is amazing is that some trees have no leaves, some have beautiful reds and oranges and some are still with green leaves.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
41. Zachary Labe
7:59 PM GMT on October 16, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- There is nothing quite like it! It should be one of those amazing fall weekends this Saturday and Sunday, perfect for raking leaves. Interesting enough leaves from my two large and mature oaks in the front yard did not drop leaves until mid November last year. This year this weekend I will already have to start to rake.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
40. TheRasberryPatch
7:56 PM GMT on October 16, 2008
I love these cold fronts also. i have worked out in the yard so often on a Saturday with these conditions and love it. the scenery, the sounds and the temperatures. the crisp evenings drinking a beer next to a fire in the pit.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
39. Zachary Labe
7:20 PM GMT on October 16, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Well changes are coming, within the next few hours actually. After that we enter the long and cold road ahead. I just love when these big cold fronts move through in the Fall and Winter. Temperatures drop so fast with a strong northwest wind, just amazing to me.

Stanb999- Well it definitely will be possible. I think it is slightly early to be calling for snow flakes. But with this deep trough there could be a cut off low creating lake effect and orographic precipitation. Upper levels (850) are well below freezing and several deviations below normal. Surface temperatures will be marginal with highs in the low to mid 40s for your area. But lows at night will be in the 20s. So at this point I think it is possible. I will have a better idea on next week, when I issue my new blog this weekend. Keep us updated up there!

WxWyz- Wow, 50inches, when I think of Oklahoma I always think of it being like a brown Kansas. I have never been in Oklahoma, but I was in Kansas. I see some frost advisories are up out your way. Hopefully this will bring some of your fall color out!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
38. WxWyz
1:13 PM GMT on October 16, 2008
Morning B92...

Mid 40's bringing a Fall nip to the air this morning. Tranquil weather for the extended.
Not sure if I mentioned before but Tulsa has had over 50 inches of rain so far this year. Been a wet one! Hence the name "Green Country".
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 352 Comments: 3847
37. Stanb999
11:52 AM GMT on October 16, 2008
Well the "Local" TV weather man said,

Light snow for the Northern Mountains on Wed. the 22nd.

He is usually spot on to warmer for the forecast for us. The reason I know the forecast is as I was leaving the house this morning the Wife came out and stopped me to tell me it. She wasn't too happy, She likes the warm. But of course she picked this place on this mountaintop.

So Blizzard, How's next week look?
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
36. TheRasberryPatch
11:29 AM GMT on October 16, 2008
My low yesterday was 59 and today was 63 degrees. it is mild and warm, like a summer morning
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
35. Zachary Labe
10:16 AM GMT on October 16, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- It sure is another mild morning out there with a low of 59degrees, well above normal. Yesterday my low was a toasty 62degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
34. TheRasberryPatch
1:57 AM GMT on October 16, 2008
the report was in this monday's paper in the life section with the nature reporter. he told of the wolly caterpillars and that there is another caterpillar similar with no markings.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
33. Zachary Labe
8:30 PM GMT on October 15, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- O, lol, ok. JDinWPA had a good picture of one of the caterpillars with two brown stripes and one black stripe. I believe the Patriot News had an article in the paper about the brown wolly caterpillars about a week or two ago. But other than that I have been hearing about mixed reports with coloring. Omar just does not seemed to be well "media-advertised," but off course if it would be affecting the United States then that is another story.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
32. TheRasberryPatch
8:21 PM GMT on October 15, 2008
Blizz, just wanted to let you know the caterpillars in my area are all black.
that hurricane seems to have caught some people off guard
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
31. Zachary Labe
7:08 PM GMT on October 15, 2008
Roebear- Good afternoon!!! I have very similar thoughts to yours. Also wolly catepillars are predicting a cold winter with some of them being completely brown, which really means a cold winter I believe. It would be nice to get an above average snowfall. It seems like people forget how bad some winters can get around here. But their short term memories seem to forget the 1996 was not too long ago, when Harrisburg saw nearly over 80 some inches of snow. I hope to see you post more often! Have a great afternoon!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096
30. Roebear
1:49 PM GMT on October 15, 2008
I'm looking for a colder than normal winter with an early onset and likely snowfall in the 40-60 inch range for Dauphin county area. That could be exceeded if we get more than one or two large coastal storms, which I expect at least that many. My reasons, very low solar minima (so far lowest sunspot activity since 1933), low general solar activity, very heavy autumn insect activity, heavy nut crops, other natural indicators (proprietary), position in enso cycle, position in atlantic cycle.

Last year my winter forecast was not very detailed, as I could not get a good read on natural indicators with the freakish warm fall, but ended up calling for about normal winter with a warm bias and ice storms, which was close enough for a not very interesting winter. Definitely got the ice storms, thank you my predictive Pin Oaks.

This year will be much more interesting and much more "old fashioned".

Best to all,
Roebear
Member Since: December 12, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
29. Zachary Labe
10:23 AM GMT on October 15, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- No I do not really have anything too add to Omar. I must admit I have not really been following the tropics for a while.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15096

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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