A cold week is ahead...

By: Zachary Labe , 3:07 PM GMT on September 30, 2008

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 9/30)
Good morning!!! What a beautiful evening it was Monday night. Skies cleared after some afternoon diurnal cumulus, and temperature dropped down to dew point levels to give way to some heavy dew and ground fog. This time of year is always some enjoyable as fall colors dot the landscape, and fresh Canadian cold fronts draw down some cool temperatures for the nights. Each morning is always followed by ground fog. This is ground fog season the months of September and October. Last year, especially was known for lots of foggy mornings. I have noticed another busy time for nature, with squirrels swinging from every tree known to man. Also I have not seen the giant ogre groundhog in almost two weeks. The birds are still scurrying about at the birdfeeders and birdbaths, but shortly it will be time to empty the birdbaths as frosts and freezes approach. I never made it up to Hawk Mountain on Sunday due to the heavy rain and mountain fog, so hopefully in the coming weeks I will be able to witness the annual hawk migration over the ridge tops of Pennsylvania. Deer have been running about during the evening and early morning hours as they become a little more active during this cool weather season. This blog covers some of the interesting seasonal topics such as Fall Foliage and my October Outlook. This week will sure bring a taste of fall as temperatures plummet into the 30s for lows late in the week, and snowflakes potentially fall in the Adirondacks of New York State for Friday night. See below for more information on this significant trough moving into the Midwest and Northeast. Already frost advisories and freeze warnings are out for parts of the Great Plains as the cold front has already moved through. Enjoy the Fall season. Have a great day!!!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 9/30)
An active start to the forecast period for this week, but that will quiet down by the end of the week. A very strong cold front is moving across the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning. Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of the front along with some weak thermodynamic levels. CAPE values rise to near 500 j/kg. Winds aloft are marginal for severe weather with them near 25-30knots. Freezing levels aloft are quite low near 10,000ft and wet bulb temperatures are near 55. PWATs are pretty low with the front near 1.2inches max in a very narrow corridor with the frontal passage. Based on animated future radar provided by NMM it appears a narrow squall of showers and thunderstorms will push across the state. Overall a few severe weather reports are possible with hail and wind damage the primary threats. Hail parameters are a little high so I am thinking hail will be the primary threat. A surge of cooler air will approach western Pennsylvania overnight Tuesday as the front slows across eastern Pennsylvania. Left over showers and thunderstorms will occur Wednesday morning as the front crosses into the Atlantic. Total QPF is near .5inches max for central and eastern Pennsylvania. For the mid to late week a very amplified jet stream moves into the region with a deep trough over the east and ridge to the west. The 850mb line moves as far south as the Pennsylvania turnpike with a weak cut-off low to the north in Canada that will spin creating a strong northwesterly flow. Lake effect rain showers will form for late Wednesday through Friday night across much of the state. As cold air advection flows southeast over the entire northeast some of the higher elevations will be near critical levels for snowflakes. Thickness levels support a few flakes mixed in, but surface temperatures are marginal. Therefore I expect only marginal accumulations in the Adirondacks. It appears that snowflakes will only be confined to the higher elevations of New York State and New England. But I cannot rule out a flake or two across the higher plateaus near Bradford. For Saturday dry conditions develop as high pressure moves over the state. A reinforcing shot of cold air may occur on Saturday as indicated by the EURO. Saturday night may be the coldest night of this season so far. Through the end of the weekend upper level heights will only be near 5C at the most. 2m levels will max out near 10C for highs. It appears the best chance of the flow aligning for lake effect rain will be on Thursday with will be around 300. Some warmth builds in for the beginning of next week, which should bring temperatures back to seasonal values. Another trough though may be in the works to come down towards the Midwest by Tuesday as indicated by the GFS.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Weekly Forecasts" (Updated 9/30)
Tuesday- A cold front approaches from the west with some morning left over debris clouds over western Pennsylvania and a few rain showers. With some afternoon heating downwind of the Appalachians, a broken line a showers and thunderstorms may form that could be marginally severe. Highest threat for severe weather today is in all of east-central Pennsylvania and eastern Pennsylvania. Total precipitation will near .5inches in the strongest thunderstorm with the heavy rain core. Upper levels and even surface values are pretty dry for Tuesday. Highs will be highly dependent on how much sun an area sees so I would expect highs in the mid 60s for western Pennsylvania, highs in the upper 60s for central Pennsylvania, and highs in the lower 70s for eastern Pennsylvania. Tuesday night showers and thunderstorms will be around eastern Pennsylvania as the front begins to slow down its eastward progression. Meanwhile cooler air funnels in to the west. Lows will near seasonable values under partly to mostly cloudy skies statewide.

Wednesday- A northwesterly flow begins to develop with moisture coming off the lakes. A few morning showers and thunderstorms will also occur in far eastern areas thanks to the departing cold front. High temperatures will be a large range across the state because the core of the cooler air only moves into western Pennsylvania and the higher elevations. Diurnal cumulus clouds will dominate with some lake effect rain showers across many areas. Some instability thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with some pea sized hail, especially across the higher elevations. A cold pocket aloft will keep things highly unstable. Overall northwesterly winds do remain light for the most part. Elevations above 2000ft in northern Pennsylvania will see highs in the low to mid 50s with the cooler values to the west. Valley locations of western Pennsylvania will see highs in the low 60s. Central Pennsylvania will see highs in the low 60s for mountains and mid 60s for valley locales. And most of eastern Pennsylvania from Harrisburg eastward as far north as Allentown will see highs in the upper 60s. Precipitation numbers will be pretty low, but in the strongest of bands off of Lake Erie rainfall totals may near .25inches. Wednesday night downsloping winds eliminate clouds east of the mountains, but a slight northwest breeze will still be felt. Lows will not get too awfully cold with them in the mid 40s for eastern Pennsylvania, and low 40s elsewhere.

Thursday- Northwesterly flow aligns perfectly for lake effect rain showers and bands across the west and north. Precipitation totals will be near .1-.25inches in areas that see the bands. Eastern areas may escape the precipitation due to downsloping winds, but I am still expecting mostly cloudy skies across the state. Dew point levels will continue to drop into the low 40s. Highs will be nearly 10-15degrees below normal with highs near Bradford near 49degrees, especially in the surrounding mountains. Most areas will struggle to reach the 60degree mark, but in Philadelphia it appears highs will reach the mid to upper 60s. Thursday night temperatures aloft drop below freezing, but surface temperatures are going to be near lows of mid 30s across the far north with low 40s elsewhere. With the cold air advection clouds and light winds will prevent temperatures from really dropping off.

Friday- High pressure begins to move in from the west along with the core of the coldest weather with this deep trough. Highs will again struggle to reach the low 50s across elevations above 2500ft, and many areas will be in the mid to upper 50s even in the valley locations. Highs east of the mountains will near the 60degree mark. Friday night should be the coldest night of the week so far as winds will try to calm, but still may hold a light west-northwest breeze. Dewpoints will be in the 30s to low 40s. With clear skies all of Friday and into the night I would expect many readings in the mid to upper 30s with low to mid 40s in the city locations. Frosts may occur in the sheltered valleys in the eastern Laural Highlands and ridge and valley region. Also some frosts may occur in the valleys of the Poconos.

Saturday- There is some computer model confliction to whether cold air reinforces itself. But in any case currently I am expecting dry conditions with high pressure of the region with plentiful sunshine. Dewpoints will be very low in the 30s across much of the state with light northwesterly winds. Highs will be chilly once again in the mid to upper 50s across western half of Pennsylvania and across all of the north, but in the low 60s for the eastern areas. For Saturday night it should be the coldest night of the season with possibly widespread frost as radiational cooling is near max. With already cool highs temperatures will really drop to wet bulb levels which are in the 30s. I am expecting frosts to occur possibly as far south as the Pennsylvania turnpike. Freezes may occur across the north. The question that remains with all of this, is will the winds decouple. Further details will become clearer in the days to come.

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Fall Foliage Outlooks" (Updated 9/30)
After some pretty cool nights before the rains this weekend, leaves have begun to turn colors in some of the species of trees that are often prone to early color change. Across northern Pennsylvania latest fall foliage reports are at about 15-25% color change with the majority of the trees being maple. Some species of maple such as the Silver Maple has only a rust type color at this point, but on the other maples the red is beginning to shine. Across central areas of Pennsylvania around the I-80 corridor to about as far south as a little north of the turnpike, color change is about 5-10% with the majority once again being young and mature maples turning the bright reds. Some of the ornamental trees are also beginning to turn colors and loose leaves. Across southern Pennsylvania from the turnpike area on south conditions remain spotty and depend on locations. Areas in western Pennsylvania near the Laural Highlands are having some nice fall foliage reports coming in, but yet areas in the Dutch country area are seeing little if any change. Across the coal regions of Pennsylvania reports of beautiful yellow color are coming in from the local birch trees, which are known to change color early. I have not heard many reports from the Lake Erie region, but I am sure leaves are starting to change there too. With the upcoming cool and clear skies for late this week leaves will continue to change, with some areas peaking the end of next week in the higher elevations of Potter, Tioga, Wayne, Bradford, Warren, McKean, and Susquehanna Counties. Across the nation the Rocky Mountain region will be reaching its peak as the Aspens continue to shed their beautiful yellow color. In Alaska, based on some tower cameras it appears like the peak has passed. In fact in Fairbanks, Alaska they recorded a measurable snowfall a few days ago, which is in fact even early for them to see snowfall. Average temperature for highs this time of year is 50degrees up that way. Across Michigan color is pretty brilliant in some areas with again maples and ornamental trees. Parts of New England are seeing some beautiful color in the Green and White Mountains. Adirondacks are also reporting nice color. To see some of these colors, just take a glance in the Wunderground photo gallery, lots of pictures of fall color. So again it continues to look like fall. O and a friendly reminder, only 2 months to the start of the meteorological winter and about 1 month until I start looking at snow chances for the mountains of northwestern Pennsylvania.

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 9/30)
September has come to a close quite wet across much of the state. Early in September Hanna delivered a few inches of rain to eastern Pennsylvania and central Pennsylvania. Then heavy thunderstorms moved through a few days later with more rain. After that there was a period of dry weather for a week or two. Then a coastal storm moved inland towards the end of the month and acted as a cut-off low once inland creating heavy rain across much of the state, excluding extreme northwestern Pennsylvania. To end the month a dry cold front is going to move through with widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. So overall across the state ground levels are quite moist for most areas. It is still a little early for fall leaves to cover the forest floor, so really there is no natural fuel for the forest fires to form in the mountains. Temperatures for the coming week will be going below normal along with dry dew points in the 30s and 40s. But each night will feature heavy dew and ground fog adding some residual morning moisture. I do not expect any concerns with forest fires this week. Across the nation there is a heightened risk of forest fires out in the west with dry thunderstorms. Those conditions will persist through the next couple of days. Once again here is the criteria according to the State College NWS for fire development...Link.

Criteria for rapid initiation and spread of wildfires in PA:

1. Winds must be sustained at 15 mph (13 knots) for two hours or more, and

2. Minimum Relative Humidities (which usually occur in the afternoon) must be 30 percent or less, and

3. 10-hour Fuel Moistures must be 15 percent or less (and expected to remain there for two or more days).

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Fall Gardening Outlook" (Updated 9/30)
Well this is one of probably the last gardening forecasts, maybe next week a forecast too. But we are starting to enter the heart of the fall season with only cool weather crops persevering through the cold, long nights and shortened days. Frosts and freezes will be coming late this week to many areas across Pennsylvania. But some areas may not decouple, especially across the north, so stay tuned for more updates throughout the week on the frost and freeze situation. I guess this weekend I will be headed out to buy some of my favorite plants such as the Mums and Ornamental Cabbage plants. I love this season of planting even though it is quite short. Looking ahead at this week it looks to be several periods of rainfall possible, which will make watering not very necessary this week. Towards the weekend though, conditions may start to get dry. Temperatures will generally be below normal. Here is an update on my vegetable garden. My cucumber plant is still hanging in there and I just picked a beautiful cucumber just yesterday after the rain. My lettuce plants are doing wonderfully and growing it seems inches every day. I guess tomorrow evening I will do one of my first harvests for the lettuce with these plants. My spring onions (scallions) I am not sure what happened to them. It seemed a lot of them disappeared with only a few large ones still growing. I am a little disappointed, but I guess they are mainly for planting during the spring. My cabbage plants ended up dying after the groundhog destroyed them. My broccoli and cauliflower plants are still trying to grow, but I doubt I will get any crop. My pepper plants are still producing and I picked a pepper just a few days ago with another ripening hopefully in the next couple of days before the cold hits. The tomato plants are still alive and have a decent amount of green tomatoes on them, but I doubt they will ripen. My radish plants are doing pretty well and I am guessing I will be able to pick some by the end of the coming weekend. And lastly my herbs, basil, parsley, and chives, are still growing nicely and shortly I will begin the challenge of cutting all the herbs off to store in the freezer for the winter. So overall a nice end to a successful season of my first largely expanded vegetable garden. Thanks to everyone for all of the helpful advice with a special thanks to TheRasberryPatch, JDinWPA, Sullivanweather, and others. Happy gardening!!!

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 9/30)
Looking at teleconnection patterns for the first half of October it appears the weather pattern will be made up of several different types of patterns, which is pretty typical of this time of year. Weather patterns are transitioning from summer to winter patterns, which can cause some unusual weather. But those extremes are nothing like what occurs during the transition period in the Spring. Anyways NAO favors negative for first half of month with PNA favoring positive. This is indicating troughing over east and ridging over west. AO is also remaining negative, which indicates some cool weather funneling down from the Arctic. Long term EURO model favors near normal temperatures with only some slight troughing over the east. Long term GFS is pretty similar to EURO with periods of warmer and cooler weather. There are already appearing some GFS fantasy storms, which do not even need to be bothered to look at currently. So for next week I am looking at near seasonal values with a few periods of precipitation. Also there appears to be some decent Greenland blocking as some very cold anomalies move over that region. Hopefully that will help add some snow cover and recovering of sea ice. Snow has already started falling in northern Canada. Looking in comparison to last year, snow cover and the sea level ice levels are higher and more widespread than what they were last year at this time. For us winter lovers this proves optimistic to show that cold air has the possibility to begin to develop early and build, soon to become let loose come winter hopefully.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (October)
So September has now just about come to a close. Precipitation was above normal for most of the state of Pennsylvania, except for parts of western and extreme northwestern Pennsylvania. Temperature wise it was about 1-2degrees above normal for much of the state. My forecast called for normal temperatures along with above normal precipitation, so overall I am pleased with my forecast for September. The first half of the month was much warmer than normal followed by a cooler than normal second half of the month. So now we are in October, the height of the fall season, and many are wondering if we will have another scorcher like last year. Temperatures were into the 80s for much of the month along with an extremely late fall foliage season. As many bloggers have mentioned, they were swimming in pools during the first half of the month. By the end of the month finally many areas received a very late frost and freeze followed by a relatively cold November with an early snow around mid month. So for October here is what I am thinking...

Temperature- There does not seem to be quite an evident trend for temperatures for October. There does not seem to be one distinctive pattern setting up other than a consistent eastern United States trough. The NAO seems to be staying negative for next two weeks along with PNA mostly positive. AO index is also staying the majority of the time in the negative range. Also EURO long-range model supports Greenland blocking with a slight eastern trough. GFS has shows a similar pattern with cold and mild periods throughout much of the month. So overall I expect temperature values to be near normal with slightly below normal temperatures in some areas. I do not think we will be seeing any extreme warmth this month like last year.

Precipitation- Precipitation wise again there does not quite seem to be an evident storm track. I am thinking a typical October like setup occurs with a few dry cold fronts along with some wetter low-pressure systems. Around midmonth the long range GFS has consistently showed a large coastal storm so we will have to see what happens with that. Tropics are beginning to calm down, so I do not feel to confident on the east coast experiences another tropical system. So my forecast for precipitation is normal to slightly below normal. Overall I think October should be pretty consistent with 30-year historical means.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 4
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 32

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 6
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 4.36inches
Yearly Precipitation- 33.59inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 17

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48. Zachary Labe
12:43 AM GMT on October 05, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Yep it was a great fall day! A little chilly though until the sun came out. For the majority of the day it was in the low 50s.


***New blog coming tonight.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
47. TheRasberryPatch
11:45 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Good evening Blizz. it was a very nice day for working in the yard. i got sprinkled on a little late morning, but not even enough to get wet.
a great night outside, especially for grilling.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
46. Zachary Labe
8:58 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
***Good afternoon all!!! After some morning clouds and light rain it turned into a beautiful fall day with a high here of 62degrees. More chances of frost tonight which I will have an update tonight on which areas will see frosts.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
45. Zachary Labe
3:06 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Stanb999- That is quite a heavy frost. Thanks for posting the picture!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
44. Stanb999
3:03 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Well the leaves are turning fast. Probably will be peak in the next week.

Here is a pic from my pasture this morning


Hosted on Fotki
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
43. Zachary Labe
2:59 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
JDinWPA- That is pretty chilly. Any frost with that? Similar temperatures I believe can be expected tonight as there will be less clouds around, especially in the western parts of the state. Toasty night in Bradford with a low of 26degrees. The growing season has officially ended for Potter, Elk, Cameron, and McKean Counties.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
42. JDinWPA
2:52 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Good morning Bliz. Down to 36.3 degrees this morning. We ran the gamut. Clear and calm at sundown, clouds moved in around 11, rain during the night and then clearing again around 6 AM.
41. Zachary Labe
1:48 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
jthal57- Wow, that is pretty chilly. Tonight again could have similar temperatures.

cchamp6- Impressive, you area always radiates extremely well. You were almost as cold as the Pennsylvania icebox, Bradford, which got down to 26degrees. Also did you check out Mt. Washington, 3.3inches of snow in last couple of days with winds near 100mph.

TheRasberryPatch- Low of 42degrees here. Yes once again cloud cover moved in late at night to prevent temperatures from dropping into the 30s. So frusturating. Everynight conditions start out perfect here to drop, then late night clouds move in. This cloud cover is from a morning clipper system sort of. This reinforces the cold air slightly. Some of this rain is virga and not reaching the ground. But I will say it is lightly raining here; it just started.

seflagamma- Good morning!!! I wish I could send some cooler weather down to Florida, as I know is must be a nice relief when these cold fronts move through in the south. Thanks for stopping by!

Stanb999- Finally, lol, it seemed it wanted to frost several times up that way but never did. How is the fall foliage up that way? Thanks for your report.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
40. Stanb999
12:45 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Well Blizzard,

We have had our first real frost on this mountain top. The temp was 33 with a heavy frost in the garden and pasture.
The trees are turning fast, the livestock have their winter coat. The squirrels are collecting their nuts with feverishly.

Fall is here on this little mountain top.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
39. seflagamma
12:26 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Hi Bliz,

just wanted to stop by and say hello and wish you a good weekend! and thanks for stopping by my blog yesterday!!!

have a good day.

Gams
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
38. TheRasberryPatch
12:21 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Good morning Blizz. We had a low of 44.8F. I am guessing the cloud cover kept temps in the 40's.
Where is this rain and cloud cover coming from? I thought today was going to be sunny and cool. No rain here, though. The sun is actually peaking out at times.
CC is definitely in a different zone than south central PA. I recall living near West Pt. and we would get frosts by the first day of Autumn. Also, half the homes there don't have AC.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
37. cchamp6
11:53 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Low temp. here 28.7 degrees!! Wide spread frost. I am glad I fired the woodstove last night.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1725
36. jthal57
10:09 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
low of 36.5F here Blizzard at 5AM. Temps creeping up slightly. Notice on the radar showers moving across state, some frozen precip north of I-80...pretty early for that! Going to Connecticut today. Will check in later tonight/Sun. AM
35. Zachary Labe
1:15 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
stormdude77- Lol, it sure seems it. The first cool outbreak is always a rude awakening. Thanks for stopping by!!!


***Good evening all!!! So I just got done finishing my temperature inspections across the state. Already mid 30s are being reported across far northern tier counties near Bradford. Here in southern Pennsylvania it is currently 46degrees. Dewpoints are slightly high for a widespread frost. But still I am expecting widespread frosts north of mainly I-80. Some clouds are trying to overspread western Pennsylvania as a disturbance ripples along the low level jet, which may end some perfect radiational cooling conditions for western Pennsylvania. As far as winds, they seemed to have decoupled across all of the state. So patchy frosts can be expected from turnpike on northward with widespread frosts north of I-80. I called back in the beginning of September in my winter outlook for early frosts during the end of September or early October and it seems like this is the time where a good part of the state may see temperatures in the 30s. Looking foward for everyone to post their lows tomorrow morning. Have a great evening and stay warm!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
34. stormdude77
12:38 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Hi Blizz

Wow, is it winter already? Getting quite cold up there already. Anyway, stay warm...
33. Zachary Labe
7:27 PM GMT on October 03, 2008
JDinWPA- Thanks for your report. That is some pretty chilly weather. I am hoping my chives get larger. I really enjoy that herb and the smell.

WeatherBobNut- 41degrees here this morning. Actually some of that precipitation was graupel, actually quite a bit of it in the higher elevations. Chilly today mostly in the 50s until this past hour.

WxWyz- I see they are forecasting some severe weather on the great plains next week. At least well that is what forecasters are speculating based on latest models. Should be interesting.

jthal57- Thanks for your report, 41degrees here.


***Good afternoon!!! I am planning on two updates today. With this afternoon update on some interesting weather. And then tonights update which will have a forecast for tonights frosts and freezes. So first with my afternoon update. Some very winter-like weather across the north. International Falls, MN broke a record low last night getting to 21degrees. Snowfall fell as low as 2,500ft in the White and Green Mountains of New England also Adirondacks with snowfall. Mt. Washington had over 1inch of snow yesterday, I have not heard todays total. Some very heavy lake effect rain occured in snowbelts with very strong bands. A sign of things to come? Some even surface locations in NY state reported graupel. So some very chilly weather. Look for tonight an update on my forecast for frosts and freezes. Have a great afternoon!!!

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
32. WeatherBobNut
3:15 PM GMT on October 03, 2008
Hi blizz, a further look into that precip up north turned out to be some cold rains....ttysoon.

-Weather Bob
31. jthal57
2:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2008
Blizzard-low of 40.6F here this morning in east central Northampton County, PA
30. WxWyz
1:51 PM GMT on October 03, 2008
Good day, Blizzard...Actually had a trace of rain this morning with WAA/isentropic lift becoming more of a factor as west coast low begins to influence our weather. Will be nice to hear some thunder again!

Have a good day...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 352 Comments: 3847
29. WeatherBobNut
10:05 AM GMT on October 03, 2008
Good morning blizz, it's 6:00am...yes, i'm up very early today. I was checking radars out of upstate new york off the lakes and it looks as if they are having sleet! The echoes of the radar look as if they are either returning very heavy precip or sleet, now with temps right around the freezing mark up there with this front, i'll have to verify that..

I had a low here at Old Forge of 46.7 at 5:33am brrrrrrrrr,i'll ttysoon.

-Weather Bob
28. JDinWPA
3:14 AM GMT on October 03, 2008
Hi Bliz. What a cold and windy day. Our high was 51. It's been holding at 46.9 for the last few hours. But we have rain moving in so hopefully the cloud cover will persist til morning. And the wind's still moving pretty good from the SW. Cold SW wind in October. Sigh.

Stats for September:
rain - 2.25"
highest high - 87 on 9/2
lowest high - 65 on 9/9
highest low - 68 on 9/14
lowest low - 43 on 9/10, 9/19

Patch is right about the herbs. Basil will wilt with the first hint of frost but parsley will be fine until the mid-20s. Parsley is also a bi-annual and will flower next year if you leave it in the ground. The bees and such love the flowers. Chives is a perennial and will come back bigger and better year after year.
27. Zachary Labe
12:19 AM GMT on October 03, 2008
***Quick update this evening. Already very chilly out there with it already being 46degrees here with clear skies and calm winds. If those conditions will persist throughout the night then I would not be surprised for eastern cool spots to get in the 30s with a frost in the coldest of locations. A upper level system over Michigan though may cause some clouds over the state later tonight. But if they are not too widespread then those low temperatures may occur. Also it will be interesting to see if winds remain decoupled overnight.

Also to note Mt. Washington, NH has had over 1inch of snow today. Currently it is 25degrees with blowing snow and winds gusting to 76mph.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
26. Zachary Labe
8:29 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Lol, we have a while yet before snow. It will definitely be nice to be treated with a normal October after last year being the warmest October on record for Harrisburg and Williamsport. I have a few fountains and even my little water garden pond to empty before the frosts start to consistently hit a few weeks from now.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
25. TheRasberryPatch
8:23 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
not ready for snow yet, Blizz. i need to get my yard and gardens ready for late fall and winter. i still have my pool uncovered and my fountain is still running. this weekend i will take care of most of it, I hope.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
24. Zachary Labe
7:43 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- I have thrown basil into several italian sauces, but I have not made my own. Yes I forgot about those pepper strips. I guess this weekend I will be doing some winter preparation yard work. It just reached 60degrees here. Can you believe, but Johnstown and Bradford have been in the 40s all day today with Johnstown only getting to 46degrees so far today. Also Mt. Washington has been reporting some on and off snow today. Also for Adirondacks above elevations of 3000ft there could be .5-1inch of snow. Winter making an early greeting. Also by the way look at the Alaska Advisories. Seems nearly 1/3 of the state is under a winter weather advisory for up to 11inches of snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
23. TheRasberryPatch
7:27 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
yes i believe the basil does not like frost. have you made any pesto with your basil. i believe once you make the pesto you can freeze that.
like i mentioned a back in a past blog, you should cut your peppers in strips and freeze them and save for any stir fry or if you ever grill sausage fry up some onions and peppers to top your sausage.
btw - what a cool breezy day today, huh.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
22. Zachary Labe
7:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good afternoon!!! Thanks for the advice! I have a few green peppers and green tomatoes left. I guess I should cut my basil though, because isn't it pretty sensitive.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
21. TheRasberryPatch
11:38 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Good morning Blizz. If you get the chance pick your green tomatoes before the frost. some people like to put them in a brown bag and let them ripen that way, but be careful. if one starts to rot it gets one of the nastiest smells. i think putting an apple in with them might help them to ripen. another thing to try is pickling the green tomatoes. Mmmmmmmmmm. they are so good. I haven't done it for awhile, but so good.
As for parsley, I wouldn't cut it back. You should be able to get parsley at least until January. I have cut it all year long. It depends on the weather. Same with chives.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
20. Zachary Labe
12:09 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
***Good evening all!!! A few new updates on the forecast for this coming week. First of all Happy October, and it surely started off with a band with some chilly air. I was shocked to see it get dark by 7pm already. Already in the low 50s here with some drizzle from... yes lake effect rain. We had a synoptic event during the month of August for lake effect rain. But I consider this the first outbreak of lake effect precipitation. Bands are streaming off the lakes with waterspouts being reported off of Lake Erie along with reports of pea sized hail. Rainfall amounts in the bands are also near 1-2inches. These bands will continue in the northwest during the night. Now looking ahead towards this coming weekend. Some of the models want to bring down a clipper system for Saturday, but I am not jumping on that boat yet. Also it appears GFS has now come in compromise with the EURO to keep the cold air around longer through next week. Actually the 12z GFS was so cold it brought nightime temperatures during Sunday and Monday evening down in the mid 20s across the north and mid 30s across the Mason-Dixon line. This is not even factoring in radiational cooling. Though I think this is overdone, but still some frosts and freezes will occur in the next several day period. I will have more updates on that in the days to come. So overall enjoy the start of Fall. Just think in a few weeks we will all be raking leaves. Have a great evening!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
19. Zachary Labe
10:24 PM GMT on October 01, 2008
hurigo- Glad to hear you are not getting the worst of it. Boy is it chilly here this evening, already down to 57degrees with some lake effect rain showers across the state and a slight northwest wind. Fall is in the air here in Pennsylvania!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
18. hurigo
9:18 PM GMT on October 01, 2008
Blizz,funny coincidence. I was on my way here to let you know we only have a light rain and found that you had just posted on my blog. The weather alarm has been going off like crazy -- first putting us in a STS watch and since then lots of STS warnings. I am north of that strongest long line. Reminds me that things are back to normal with storms going out to sea, rather then with Hannah and unnamed Carolina (not Laura) coming in off the ocean.

JUST HEARD that the STS watch has been cancelled for all but Dare county--that's where that severe line is.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
17. Zachary Labe
7:10 PM GMT on October 01, 2008
Spetrm- Lol, sounds like fun. Good luck!

JDinWPA- Good afternoon!!! Thanks for your report. I will have some of my September stats later today too.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
16. JDinWPA
1:54 PM GMT on October 01, 2008
Good morning Bliz. End up with a whooping .29" of rain for yesterday. It was intermittant showers and sprinkles for a lot of the day. And it's started again for today. I'll be back later with my stats for sep.
15. Spetrm
10:37 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
aha! Thanks blizz. Soooo strong thermodynamic going on then? LOL I feel so smart now.

A well thanks. I'll see ya around. I'm off to school. I get to stair at hundreds of sat pics today. And every day for several weeks. O YA!
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9857
14. Zachary Labe
10:17 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
weathergeek5- Good morning!!! A bit of dense fog out there this morning.

WeatherBobNut- Good morning!!! Great! Those digital rain gauges work wonders.

Spetrm- Good morning!!! No problem. On occasion throughout the week I find these errors and end up modifying. Anyways there was quite a temperature contrast with the front creating the steep lapse rate levels over eastern Pennsylvania, but CAPE levels were pretty low as a whole statewide.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
13. Spetrm
2:02 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of the front along with some weak thermodynamic levels

Hey rob is back and ready to be a butt. LOL, Not really I just like to clarify stuff with your wording if you explain right I use it in my own words from time to time. So don't worry I do this a lot.

But the italics above seems odd. A steep lapse rate is cuased by a strong thermodynamic setup. Thus strong thermal advection a faster moving front and thus steep laps rate. So that dosent make any sense to me. Thats me though so can ya further explain blizzard! Thanks man! No offense either so don't take it that way.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9857
12. WeatherBobNut
1:59 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
Hi blizz, i got exactally the same as you from a Thunderstorm tonight, 0.24...i bought a wireless rain gauge and i get my readings now both outside and now indoors~ NEAT!

Just a note, Henry Margusity's 2008-09 Forcast will be posted on Monday, Oct 6th, for those interested.
I wonder what way he's going this year...ttysoon.

-Weather Bob
11. weathergeek5
1:35 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
hey Charles, hey bliz how goes it?
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
10. Zachary Labe
12:58 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
charlesimages- Weather has been interesting here with heavy rain over the weekend from the cut-off low and then thunderstorms today. Those squalls can get pretty nasty coming off the lakes along with some low scud clouds that the public could mistake for a tornado. Well I got to go, long day tomorrow. Thanks for stopping by!!! Have a great night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
9. charlesimages
12:54 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
Sweet. Yes it has more than hit here, I hate it LOL The pop up showers are neat to watch and someone reported a Funnel Cloud north of Grand Rapids, MI today. I didn't see anything with rotation.. I kind of doubt there was a funnel though... May have been a cold air funnel.

How's your weather been?
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
8. Zachary Labe
12:52 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
charlesimages- Good evening!!! Doing great here! Just getting ready for the cooler weather. Has it hit your area yet?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
7. charlesimages
12:47 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
Hey Blizz how's it going?
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
6. Zachary Labe
12:45 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good evening!!! I got .24inches of rain from the thunderstorm that moved through here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
5. TheRasberryPatch
12:33 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
Hey Blizz - i got 0.33" of rain from the front that went by early this evening. i am looking forward to the fall weather this weekend.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
4. Zachary Labe
12:22 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
hurigo- Good evening!!! O yes, I guess I would be much happier with the beautiful fall foliage. Also would make for better pictures!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
3. hurigo
12:17 AM GMT on October 01, 2008
Hello Blizz,
Sorry you didn't get to Hawk Mountain this past weekend, but I bet when you do get there soon, you will be thrilled with the Octobery scenerey.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
2. Zachary Labe
4:35 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
WxWyz- Good afternoon!!! O yes for sure here in the north country. I was looking through the WU photo gallery and it looks like some beautiful Fall pictures are appearing across the Rocky Mountains and northern New England areas. Thanks for stopping by!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
1. WxWyz
3:37 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Brrrrrr! It's Autumn for sure...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 352 Comments: 3847

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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