Another beautiful week is ahead...

By: Zachary Labe , 12:56 AM GMT on September 21, 2008

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 9/20)
"Changes are a coming" The theme of this weekly blog is to look at the very interesting seasonal transitions for weather from one season to the next. As many of us know and are either dreading or loving, September 22 at around 11:30am marks the official start of Autumn. Now for us meteorological followers, the calendar started for Autumn on September 6. I took one of my favorite hikes this afternoon on a trail that straddles the peak of the blue mountain range. Animals are scurrying about with squirrels running about like wild hording all the possibly acorns they can find for the winter. Leaves are beginning to change, and I would estimate a 5-10% foliage change on the mountainside. Local villages are starting fall festivals next weekend, and fall decorations are dotting the landscape. Local hunters are searching for the first day of deer season hunting spots, and local fisherman are taking the last few weeks in pride as fish become more active as the waters cool. Today I spent the evening gathering all of the garden statues and such and storing them in the shed for winter. Sort of sad to begin to note the drearier feel of winter. I have also noticed abnormal amount of bird activity at the feeders and bird bathes. I guess soon it will be time to put the suet cakes for the birds. The season of fall brings plentiful morning fog as radiational cooling allows temperatures to reach dewpoint levels, and the water temperature and air temperature contrast is enough for dense fog to form. But water temperatures are cooling rapidly, and they are running slightly cooler than normal for this time of year. I was looking back at my weather journal for each day in last September and we hit a very cool period of temperatures mid month around the 15-19th, but then temperatures warmed rapidly up for late September and all of October. I do not think that will be the case this year. Looking across the North Country ice is now building back up in the Arctic Circle after reaching the second lowest extent of ice of record. Snow is now beginning to dot the Canadian landscape, especially around the Hudson Bay. Fall foliage is hitting the peak in parts of Alaska, and mountain snow is already affecting parts of the Rockies. Frosts and freezes are bringing abrupt endings to the growing season of the north country, and farmers begin to get the last of the hay for animal feed during the long and cold winter. The last of fresh produce is becoming available at roadside stands, and now they are putting up Mums and pumpkins. Yes seasonal changes are a foot, and enjoy the ever-changing beauty of nature's way in the world. Have a great day!!!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 9/20)
Looking ahead at this week conditions remain pretty quiet very similar to what they were this past week. A cold front is moving across the Great Lakes with isotherms dipping to 0C as far south as central Maine. But ahead of the cold front conditions will turn southwesterly drawing in some higher dew points in the low 60s for Sunday along with higher temperatures near 80degrees. High pressure over the Tennessee Valley of near 1024mb will help to pump up the heat. 10meter GFS charts show the 20C line all the way up to the NY/PA border. As the cold front moves into the region a few rain showers and clouds may be squeezed out across northwestern Pennsylvania. I though would not really be concerned about it and QPF will generally be less than .05inches. An already southwesterly flow has developed this Saturday night, which is creating a typical winter time flow in which conditions to the west of the mountains is much warmer than to the east. By Sunday evening the cold front will have basically a dry passage across all of Pennsylvania. It should be a chilly night Sunday night for northern areas as colder air flows into the region and high pressure becomes in control. Earlier guidance suggested a stronger flow of cold air behind the front, but now the GFS has backed off on that part of the forecast. Nonetheless conditions for Monday through Wednesday will be below normal. A strong high pressure of nearly 1035mb parks itself over the Northeast making for a very chilly Monday night and almost every night of the week as dewpoints remain low and winds aloft are slow. By later in the week the high pressure pulls to the northeast and a slightly more southwesterly flow develops. But then our eyes turn to the Carolina coastline as a hybrid low pressure may form and move northeast. The EURO shows a strong coastal low forming and moving up the coast with low stratus and rain showers moving as far west as central Pennsylvania for the weekend. Gusty winds would also be expected. GFS keeps low pressure far enough offshore to only affect coastal regions with light rain and some gusty winds along with high surf. First nor'easter of the year many are questioning so this will be the main feature of the week to continue monitoring. After the weekend the pattern turns more active. See more details in the long-term section.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Weekly Forecasts" (Updated 9/20)
Sunday- High pressure departs off the east coast and a cold front approaches from the west. The flow turns more southwesterly drawing in warmer and more moist air. Dewpoints will rise starting in the morning and last through the day possibly up into the low 60s. There will be some morning ground fog along with cooler conditions. But a return to warm air will occur in the afternoon with temperatures rising to 80degrees over much of the state. I would not rule out a 85degree reading across the southern metropolitan areas. Sunday should be the warmest day of the week. The cold front moves over the region with a mostly dry frontal passage but a few rain showers may occur across northwestern Pennsylvania, but they should dry up over the mountains. Precipitation totals will only max out to .05inches of rain, just enough to wet the ground. Rainfall should be very spotty over the north and west. Skies will be partly cloudy state wide with most high cirrus and instability cumulus. The cold front will push off the coast Sunday night and the flow turns northwesterly with cooler conditions and lows in the 40s statewide. Skies will generally be partly cloudy and winds around 5mph.

Monday- High pressure dominates the region with a lovely northwesterly flow. Partly cloudy skies will be statewide as orographic lift gives way to some afternoon cumulus. Dewpoints will be very dry in the low 50s to upper 40s and winds will be northerly near 10mph. Highs will range highly over the state with mid to upper 60s across the high mountains and low 70s elsewhere perhaps to near 75degrees near Philadelphia. Skies will clear for Monday night and winds will calm. Ideal radiational cooling conditions will occur making for a very cold night with temperatures in the mid 30s near Bradford with some spotty frosts. Some dense river valley fog will also form with visibilities near 1mile. Elsewhere lows will generally be in the mid 40s to near 50 across the extreme southeast.

Tuesday- Tuesday will be a repeat of Monday with clear, blue skies. There will be some morning fog to deal with, but that will clear out by 8am. Remember with lower sun conditions, it will begin to take longer for dense fog to burn off. Winds will be northerly near 5mph with dew points in the upper 40s. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s statewide. Tuesday night more great radiational cooling conditions with patchy ground fog, and cool temperatures with lows in the mid to upper 40s.

Wednesday- Again a near repeat of earlier in the week with sunshine prevailing and a westerly breeze near 5mph. Some morning dense fog will burn off by late morning. Dewpoints will be slightly higher than days before and in the 50s. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday night skies will be clear with light and variable winds creating ideal radational cooling conditions with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Thursday- Sunshine will prevail across the state with some morning dense ground and river valley fog. Winds will be light and variable throughout the day as high pressure remains in control. Dewpoints again will be a little higher than the day before with them in the low to mid 50s. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s statewide with off course usual cool spots in the upper 60s. Some cirrus clouds may try to build in from the south later in the day. Skies will be partly cloudy for Thursday night with some higher dewpoints. Temperatures for lows will not get as cool, but some dense fog will form with the rising dewpoints. Clouds may become thick in the south later in the night as a coastal low may try to gather off of Hatteris. Lows will be in the 50s statewide.

Friday- A lot of questions remain for the end of the week period and that is why I am keeping the weekly forecast only out to Friday for now. Models show possibly a coastal storm gathering off of the North Carolina coast. If indeed this does occur an onshore flow will bring in clouds for eastern and possibly central Pennsylvania with cooler temperatures. Western Pennsylvania will see sunshine and warm temperatures in the mid 70s. Eastern areas may be stuck in the upper 60s. Still a lot remain uncertain. Check back for more updates throughout the week.

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Fall Foliage Outlooks" (Updated 9/20)
These clear and cold nights along with the dry weather are bringing changes to local leaf colors especially across the northern plateaus of Pennsylvania near Wellsboro and Bradford. I have heard reports near Alleghany National Forest of conditions near 35% leaf color change. Conditions remain spotty across the low country of Pennsylvania, but across the Laural Highlands leaf color is reported at near 25%. The sun is becoming lower and lower each day making for slow color changes, but local weather is causing the early than normal changes. I would expect peaks across the north to be earlier than normal this year probably by the very end of September. Early October for the Laural Highlands and Poconos for their peaks. And for the southern part of the state in the ridge and valley region probably by mid October peak conditions will prevail. Last year many peaks in the fall color occurred during late October and early November, which is quite later than normal for typical conditions. Frosts so far this year have been also pretty early and most areas north of I-80 in the valley locations have seen lows in the 30s at least once. I have checked some fall foliage cams in northern New England and the leaves seem to be changing right now especially in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. The color change is already evident on the Presidentials in New Hampshire according to the Mountain Washington webcams. As I mentioned earlier Alaska is just about past its peak based on some of the latest reports I have heard. I guess soon enough we all will be snapping some beautiful Fall pictures.

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 9/20)
Well after my hike today I already noticed that the forest floor was covered in dried up leaves with plenty of acorns and dried up dead grasses. It has been nearly a week without rainfall and dew points have been pretty darn dry, so I would put wildfire conditions at a low level, which is probably the highest level they have been in months. One of the saving graces though to keep levels lower than they could be is the heavy morning dew and dense fog, which adds some residual moisture to the ground. I have also noticed conditions across the western US have been very dry and several RED FLAG WARNINGS have been issued for western states. Looking at the last outlooks dry and warm conditions look to persist across the west for the next two weeks. So overall just remember to act responsibly when outdoors. Once again here is the criteria according to the State College NWS for fire development...Link.

Criteria for rapid initiation and spread of wildfires in PA:

1. Winds must be sustained at 15 mph (13 knots) for two hours or more, and

2. Minimum Relative Humidities (which usually occur in the afternoon) must be 30 percent or less, and

3. 10-hour Fuel Moistures must be 15 percent or less (and expected to remain there for two or more days).

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Fall Gardening Outlook" (Updated 9/20)
So the fall gardening season continues along with a few early frosts thrown into the mix. All of Pennsylvania remains in the growing season, and there have been no reported killing frosts so far. Looking ahead at next week radiational cooling conditions will make for some cold nights with temperatures for lows across the north in the upper 30s for Monday and Tuesday night. Elsewhere temperatures for lows will be in the 40s. Dry conditions will also prevail throughout the week and now my rain barrel is beginning to decline in the water level after the rains from Tropical Storm Hanna. So here is a summary of my garden for this past week. I picked a few perfectly red peppers of the Big Bertha variety. My spring onions, scallions, are growing wonderfully but there does not seem like there will be as big as a crop yield as in March/April. My tomato plants I thought were drying, but instead are producing more green tomatoes, which sadly will not ripen before the first frost. My blueberry bush leaves are dying back and turning red for the season of fall. I though am still watering them with rain barrel water as supposedly the rain water is great for the plants because it helps make the soil more acidic. My lettuce plants are growing very large and it will be soon time for my first harvest, which I am looking very forward too. I planted some different varieties than I did in the Spring, so I am looking forward to tasting them. My herbs are still growing even after the cool nights. I guess soon it will be time to clip all of the herb leaves off and freeze them before they die back thanks to the cold. My cucumber plant is still producing, and mostly likely tomorrow afternoon I will be picking a cucumber. This seems late in the year for the plant still to be growing. Does anyone know if this is normal? My cauliflower, cabbage, and broccoli plants are still not doing very well after the "attack of the giant groundhog." My radish seedlings are growing nicely and are already starting to produce a crop. Overall it should be a nice end for the vegetable gardening season. Happy planting!!!

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 9/20)
I am very intrigued of what I see in our long term. Already the 384hr super storms are showing up on the GFS earlier than schedule, which is probably a good sign. The NAO is heading negative pretty sharply by the end of the month and the PNA is sky rocketing positive. AO also show signs of heading negative with already cold air building up across the north. Consistently the GFS has showed a very cold outbreak with a deep trough around the beginning of October. The GFS also now is forecasting large storm systems with predictions varying from a coastal runner to an Appalachian runner. Followed behind this storm is extremely cold air around the 5th of October. This is a long way out, but I am very optimistic in seeing this already with active storm tracks and large eastern troughs. As seen from my winter outlook, I very much believe in long-term teleconnective patterns, in which last winter favored a positive NAO through much of the winter. One thing I will be looking for in the weeks to come is the return of the plaguing Southeast ridge, which caused most of our southern Pennsylvania snow droughts and ice storms. With a forecast return of the La Nina by my winter outlook there would appear to be a ridge forming, but not nearly as strong as magnitude as last year. Remember last year we nearly had a record breaking strong La Nina. With weak La Nina it is very difficult to pick out temperature trends with those patterns as some winter vary quite differently even though they all had weak La Ninas. So looks like a continued cool pattern along with the return of more moisture. This could be the making of a wet, dreary, and cool fall. So for now enjoy this beautiful weather.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (September)
It is a little late, but due to other priorities such as Tropical Storm Hanna and my winter forecast, I am getting out my September outlook a little late. As for my August outlook, my call for cooler than normal temperatures definitely panned out for all across Pennsylvania as some areas were nearly 6degrees below normal. But my call for wetter than normal precipitation was very poor. In fact it was one of the driest Augusts for many areas with less than one inch of precipitation for many areas. The only areas that averaged near normal were areas across the western part of the state. August was anything but summer-like in which high temperatures only hit 90degrees once during the whole summer for many areas. So now it is time to take a look at what September may bring us. This past September it was very warm which caused some very late fall foliage across much of the Northeastern part of the country. October was also warm. September 1st is the beginning of meteorological Fall so now is the time for transition weather with cool nights, but yet still warm highs.

Temperature- Temperature wise I think temperatures end up near normal conditions. The first five days of September were all well above normal temperature wise across much of the northeast. Highs actually hit 90degrees four days in a row here in Harrisburg, which actually was only the third official heat wave of the year. Highs were nearly 10-15degrees above normal along with low temperatures near seasonal values. For the rest of the month I do not expect any more heat waves. Instead troughiness will dominate over the region as the NAO stays negative and the PNA remains positive.

Precipitation- Precipitation wise I expect much of Pennsylvania to average near normal, especially in eastern Pennsylvania which has already benefited a lot of rain from tropical storm Hanna. We also may have to deal with other remnants of tropical systems, possibly Ike as the latest GFS has indicated. Otherwise fronts will only provide slight precipitation, but still the weather pattern looks more active than the extremely dry August we saw.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 4
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 30

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 5
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 2.61inches
Yearly Precipitation- 31.84inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 17

Early morning fog... (Blizzard92)
A beautiful morning out at Sweet Arrow Lake in Schuylkill County. Notice the early fall foliage color changes and the morning fog. Temperature was 44degrees.
Early morning fog...
Early morning fog... (Blizzard92)
A beautiful morning out at Sweet Arrow Lake in Schuylkill County. Notice the early fall foliage color changes and the morning fog. Temperature was 44degrees.
Early morning fog...
Early morning fog... (Blizzard92)
A beautiful morning out at Sweet Arrow Lake in Schuylkill County. Notice the early fall foliage color changes and the morning fog. Temperature was 44degrees.
Early morning fog...

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48. Zachary Labe
7:38 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
***Good afternoon all!!! I just do not have the time today or tomorrow for a new blog covering this latest coastal storm. But I will provide a full forecast tonight in the form of a comment for what you can expect with this. Have a great day!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
47. Zachary Labe
7:10 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
hurigo- Good afternoon!!! Yep that Wundermap is great and I use it for everything; I am looking forward to using it this winter!

TheRasberryPatch- Good afternoon!!! Really I do not think it will be too bad. Winds should be strongest during the daytime hours of Thursday and may not even reach 50mph for most areas.

shoreacres- Good afternoon!!! Thanks! A few of those discussions are outdated though. Also thanks for stopping by!

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
46. shoreacres
12:49 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Morning, Bliz ~

Interesting discussion and wonderful photos! I'm SO ready for anything that might pass for fall to arrive. We are forecast to receive lower humidity this weekend. That will do.
Enjoy your day!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
45. TheRasberryPatch
11:33 AM GMT on September 24, 2008
no problem hurigo.

Blizz - gusts up to 45mph is pretty strong especially if those gusts continue in the 25-45mph over a period of a day or two. and the beach erosion as well as coastal flooding is why people of eastern shore fear these storms. like a TS, but it lasts

at OC airport they have winds 21mph with gusts to 30mph.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
44. hurigo
11:19 AM GMT on September 24, 2008
Good morning,
It doesn't look as windy this morning, but I'm not out in it yet. Patch--thanks for the WUMap reminder. I had totally forgotten about that although Blizz introduced me to it way back when. I'll look at those buoy readings and if I have trouble finding them, I'll be back asking for help.,
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
43. Zachary Labe
10:26 AM GMT on September 24, 2008
weathergeek5- Not overall strong, more or less just like a typical coastal storm with wind, coastal flooding, and heavy rain. 93L is beginning to look less and less likely that it will cause impacts in the region.

hurigo- Hopefully you will not loose power. I was checking winds this morning and it looks pretty gusty. Stay safe!

TheRasberryPatch- A consistent onshore flow through tomorrow will cause some areas of coastal flooding causing some abnormally high tides. Winds will gust up to 45mph at times, but no stronger than that for the most part.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
42. TheRasberryPatch
2:18 AM GMT on September 24, 2008
from what i watched on TWC they expect large waves and high winds for the next couple of days along the coast. doesn't look good for the beaches.
hurigo if you get the chance check out the wundermap and go to the bouy's and their conditions. pretty impressive.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
41. hurigo
1:20 AM GMT on September 24, 2008
Hey Patch, thanks for the report for up there in OCM.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
40. TheRasberryPatch
1:12 AM GMT on September 24, 2008
i checked out OCMD and they have a coastal flood statement. they mention the tight pressure gradient is causing high winds and large waves.
the weather station at OC airport had 16mph with gusts to 24mph. and they expect it like that tomorrow as well.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
39. hurigo
12:30 AM GMT on September 24, 2008
We are under gale warning. Winds 25-35 mph tonight through Wednesday evening. No rain in forecast till Wed night.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
38. weathergeek5
12:27 AM GMT on September 24, 2008
Good thoughts!!! How strong do you think the coastal low develop?
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
37. Zachary Labe
12:18 AM GMT on September 24, 2008
Alright I really do not have many new thoughts on the situation this weekend. I still like the EURO solution with the coastal low becoming dominant. I really am starting to doubt much development with Invest 93L and I am starting to slowly more and more sway away from a USA direct impact. I think heavy rain will fall this weekend with several rounds of tropical moisture along with some gusty winds as there is quite a tight pressure gradient. So we will see. Look for another update tomorrow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
36. Zachary Labe
11:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
wxgeek723- A lot of interesting things with the weather pattern. Now it is a little early to be looking for patterns, but already we have big eastern troughs, coastal lows forming, and clipper type systems according to GFS. Very typical winter pattern regime.

dean2007- I think mainly impacts will be excessive rainfall upwards of nearly 6inches in isolated locales. Again I am taking the more conservative side of the forecast considering other scenerios.

hurigo- Keep me updated down there. Tight pressure gradient should make for some pretty gusty winds. When is the rainfall supposed to approach?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
35. hurigo
11:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Two of the places I use as my earlywarning system are Corolla at the north end of OBX and a bit south of that, Kitty Hawk. In corrolla the winds are NNE at 29, but at KH they are N21
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
34. hurigo
11:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Good evening Blizz,
There is a mighty wind here. N17, G27. It has steadily increased all day. We are under coastal flood warning, high wind advisory and high surf advisory. The worst is suppose to be tomorrow--unless they've updated the forecast since what I saw early afternoon. We're told that this n'oyster will deflect and actually propel that 93 thing way up north.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
33. dean2007
9:07 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
It won't become a nor'easter. At least not south of the Gulf Stream, maybe sub tropical storm is possible.
32. wxgeek723
9:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
It doesn't look like the low off the East Coast is becoming a nor'easter...yet. I wonder if it will impact the northeast.

At least now it's officially fall, so the tropics slowly decline and the winter storms increase. Summer went out quite chilly. I wonder if it's a warning...
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3466
31. Zachary Labe
8:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
***Good afternoon all!!! Well there seems to be a lot of interesting weather on the pallet for the end of this week and even into next week. Tonight I will provide an update on my current forecast for this weekend (in the form of a comment). Little if anything has changed in my thoughts regarding the systems. Once again I think for some people this is an overhyped storm. Also look for new blog either tomorrow after or Thursday evening concerning the flooding threat. Have a great evening and look for my discussion around 8:30pm!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
30. Zachary Labe
10:13 AM GMT on September 23, 2008
weathergeek5- I agree with not trusting the models, as I believe the models initiate the center of 93L to far north.

dean2007- When both the coastal low forms and 93L becomes more organized then we will have a better idea on the forecast of the systems.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
29. dean2007
2:50 AM GMT on September 23, 2008
I believe the tropical disturbance is the main player. Depending on the strength and position of the this low when the low off the SE coast develops will be the key in determining the affects they both will have on the East Coast of the US.
28. weathergeek5
2:47 AM GMT on September 23, 2008
You are not going to believe this; BUT a certain weather guy on another weather site who always Hypes storms... He is urging calm for people not to believe the model runs.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
27. weathergeek5
12:45 AM GMT on September 23, 2008
I know plus the nor'easter complicates everything. I do not think the tropical enity will be a big factor... that is my gut feeling as of now. It may change
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
26. Zachary Labe
12:16 AM GMT on September 23, 2008
weathergeek5- Lol, I guess so. I would much rather have a winter storm difficult prediction than a more of a tropical prediction. I really dislike forecasting for the tropics; though I thought my Hanna prediction turned out pretty well for track and rainfall.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
25. weathergeek5
12:14 AM GMT on September 23, 2008
It is a nice challenge to have such a tough forecast right?
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
24. Zachary Labe
12:13 AM GMT on September 23, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- That is why I always quick copy all of the comment, and then if it is deleted I can just paste it again. But occasionally I forget and it disappears. There are some decent concerns with this system, especially with coastal flooding and beach erosion. See comment #23 for my forecast as of now.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
23. Zachary Labe
12:10 AM GMT on September 23, 2008
weathergeek5- Lol, gosh I hope not. A few concerns of mine this evening are that 93L is farther southwest than being progged by current models. Also it is continuing to push west-northwestward. Also it is interacting with land and I agree with the NHC for not upgrading to a depression. My thoughts bring this disturbed weather to the north and shear it apart as a new coastal low forms off of North Carolina. The storms sort of form a large subtropical system that moves up the coastline. I am liking the 12z EURO right now for my forecast... Link. Though is about the least confident I have felt on a forecast in quite a long time.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
22. TheRasberryPatch
12:05 AM GMT on September 23, 2008
Ugh, the last week i have posted only to have it not show on a few occasions.
blizz - i will be interested to know the forecast for the nor'easter. the locals from the eastern shore of maryland from way back were more afraid of nor'easter's then hurricanes and tropical storms. supposedly, they caused a lot more damage.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
21. weathergeek5
12:01 AM GMT on September 23, 2008
Fay Part 2?
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
20. Zachary Labe
11:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
weathergeek5- Still not quite sure on what is going to happen. This is a complex forecast if I ever saw one. Latest is 18z runs shifted eastward. 12z runs... CMC, UKMET, EURO, and NAM are farther inland. GFDL, HWRF are towards NJ. GFS is towards Cape Cod and out to sea.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
19. weathergeek5
11:28 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Hey Blizz. Looking more interesting for the weekend?
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
18. Zachary Labe
8:03 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- 43degrees here also, pretty chilly. Then Sunday morning it was 45degrees. Looking more and more threatening for a potential coastal storm this weekend. I still am on the weary side of the forecast, while others are for a full blown out Nor'easter. I should have an update tonight on the storm after I gather some of the evening model runs.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
17. TheRasberryPatch
7:57 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
good afternoon Blizz and happy fall also. i love this time of year. brilliant colors. great weather. nice to wear jeans and sweatshirt again.
around my area the leaves are still green and holding onto the branches. not really much color change to speak of. some bushes are turning a bit.
btw - what was your low for saturday. i was at 43F
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
16. Zachary Labe
7:39 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
dean2007- Well this is definitely looking interesting with storm tracks. Could be a high impacting event this weekend.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
15. dean2007
7:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Ok Blizzard.
14. Zachary Labe
7:06 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
JDinWPA- Good afternoon!!! Thanks! I also am worried about a non-brilliant year for fall foliage. Leaves are changing here daily, but they seem to be shades of brown and yellows.


By the way Happy Fall to everyone!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
13. JDinWPA
1:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Good morning Bliz. Great pictures! I love it this time of year when the fog slowly floats off the water.

There's still only hints of color scattered here and there. I'm not sure how nice the fall folage will be around here between the beating the leaves got last week and the sudden lack of rainfall.
12. Zachary Labe
10:24 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Lately I am thinking first week of October. A really large trough is supposed to move down around that time with some very cold air.

dean2007- Not quite sure. I haven't got a feel for the pattern yet. I like what the EURO has been predicting as of the 12z run yesterday. I will have to check this morning's runs.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
11. dean2007
2:18 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
What are you thinking Blizzard, on the coastal storm and 93L evolution?
10. TheRasberryPatch
1:05 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
hello Blizz. i didn't see any predictions on the first frost for our area. i thought you said we might see one early this year and sometime in September. Is that still holding true? Just curious. I still have peppers and tomatoes in the garden producing and hopefully i will keep getting something from them for another week or so.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
9. Zachary Labe
11:08 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
weathergeek5- From my perspective it seems to take 93L pretty weak across the southeastern states, meanwhile a coastal low develops off the Carolinas and tracks northward (non-tropical).
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
8. weathergeek5
11:02 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
ok keep us updated. It does not show a tropical system right?
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
7. Zachary Labe
10:53 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Latest model runs today show a nor'easter for Sunday according to EURO. A pretty show low center would be located over the delmarva. The GFS on the other hand shows a low pressure system hundreds of miles out to sea not affecting anyone.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
6. Zachary Labe
5:56 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
weathergeek5- O gosh looks like it will be a busy week. After last week I think I am ready for a little bit of storm activity to track.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
5. weathergeek5
4:20 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
It looks as though you have your week cut out for you. I think us meteorological followers on the east coast will have a very busy week!! Here is what Dr masters said on his blog about the complicated weather forecasts:

The track forecast
The models agree on a general north-northwesterly motion for 93L over the next 3-4 days, which would bring the storm just west of Bermuda. A major complicating factor in the long-range track forecast is the expected development of an extratropical Nor'easter storm off the coast of South Carolina on Thursday. The Nor'easter could bring hostile wind shear over 93L, weakening it into a subtropical storm. The Nor'easter might then recurve out to sea, drawing 93L behind it. This is the solution of the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) GFS model run. Alternatively, the two storms may rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending the Nor'easter west-southwestward into the Southeast U.S., and 93L northwestwards towards North Carolina. This is the solution of the 00Z (8 pm EDT) GFDL model. The NOGAPS model predicts that the Nor'easter will not develop at all, and instead 93L will absorb the energy that would have gone into creating the Nor'easter. This would convert 93L into a hybrid subtropical storm that would affect the coast of North and South Carolina late this week with sustained winds in the 50-60 mph range. I don't have a good feel for what will happen in this complicated situation, but it currently appears that coastal North and South Carolina can expect tropical storm force winds from either an extratropical or tropical storm beginning on Friday. It is possible that 93L may impact the mid-Atlantic or New England regions early next week.

From the MT Holly NWS:

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THEN SLIDES
EAST WITH THE CENTER REACHING NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THE WEATHER REMAINS TRANQUIL AT THIS LATITUDE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRYING TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDS WELL OFFSHORE AND IS IS PART OF THE OLD FRONT THAT PASSED
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE EARLY CONCERNS WITH A DEVELOPING STORM
OF THIS TYPE IS IT`S INTERACTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
THIS CREATES A FAIRLY STRONG AND LONG FETCH COMING IN FROM THE
OCEAN. MARINERS WILL MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH
AND LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS FIRST.
SOME
COMPUTER MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES OF LOW CENTERS EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND OFFSHORE. DEPENDING ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENT,
COASTAL AREAS FROM FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS COULD SEE A FETCH
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 NM. ONCE FORMED, THE LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND
MAY SPREAD SOME RAIN NORTH INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion

Question I am trying to paste this image here and I cannot. Here is the link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/threats.shtml

Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
4. Zachary Labe
10:24 AM GMT on September 21, 2008
WeatherBobNut- Good morning!!! Thanks for the comments. I feel pretty well about this winter, my only concern which I mentioned above is the placement of the southeast ridge. Sure has been cold last couple of mornings. How has it been up your way? 44degrees here this morning with dense ground fog. Starting to feel like October.

weathergeek5- Good morning!!! I am also feeling more confident on the coastal storm. I am anxious to see the 0z and 6z runs this morning.

dragonflyF15- Good morning!!! Yep, it is sort of sad bringing in all of the garden things, but this is about the time of year I always do it. Thanks for stopping by!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
3. dragonflyF15
8:29 AM GMT on September 21, 2008
>gasp< You already brought in statues for the winter? Eww...that W word....

Member Since: February 13, 2006 Posts: 193 Comments: 2151
2. weathergeek5
3:19 AM GMT on September 21, 2008
Wow I saw the NAO tank. Also I am intrigued by the possibility of a coastal storm later this week. It so happens I am taking a 4 day weekend this weekend so I can observe the forecasts and current conditions.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
1. WeatherBobNut
2:21 AM GMT on September 21, 2008
Hi Blizz, awsome blog! I am getting excited for the upcoming winter! I've been watching the squirrels gather nuts like crazy also and bird feeders are very active as well. I also seen the long range super storm already too and I said "Here we go!" LOL. I have a good feeling that this will be a better winter than last year. Heck, when my wife had my daughter out inthe pool on October 2nd, I thought right then and there that it was going to be a mild winter. I was so tired of all of the lake cutter storms! I think the storm track this year will set up much farther east. The east has been in a trough much of this year and I don't see any major pattern change ahead so I have a pretty solid feeling we'll see a few good storms here in the northeast.

Thanks for you blogs, I always look for yours first when I log on. It's great stuff.
Can't wait to post my first winter storm blog soon!
Ttysoon.

-Weather Bob

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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