A taste of fall this week...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:22 PM GMT on September 14, 2008

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 9/14)
Good Sunday afternoon!!! So after a little bit of thought I decided instead of already releasing my winter format this early in the year, I would make a temporary transition format for the season of Autumn. There are several new changes on the format below, which I hope aid to the easy understanding of my forecasts. There will still be an afternoon thought section, as seen here. Also there will still be a monthly forecast section with precipitation and temperature outlooks. The gardening outlook section will continue through October also. But here are some of the sections of change. I have decided to add a section called Forecast Discussion which will highlight a more scientifically look at the weekly weather to come. This will highlight any details in the forecast. The section below that will go five days in advance and detail weather for each day across the state of Pennsylvania. There will no longer be a daily regional forecast section. Another new section is my fall foliage outlook, which will be a quick discussion to highlight the latest in changes for fall leaves across the region. My forest fire outlook will continue, as fall is typically forest fire season in Pennsylvania. I have a new long-term outlook, which will look at possibly weather patterns from one to two weeks in the future. I have also gotten rid of my tropical outlook, as changes in the tropics are just to fast for me to keep it updated. Also there are plenty of other weather blogs on Weatherunderground to find information concerning the tropics. Though feel free to ask for my tropical forecasts in a comment below. I will be happy to hear and comments on the new format, which will last from mid September through the end of October. Then come the beginning of November I will transition to my winter format. Still if any impacting major storms head our way this fall, they will get a special format. Thanks for reading this quite boring paragraph on new changes to my blog. Have a wonderful day!!!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 9/14)
Overall a pretty quiet weather week is in store across Pennsylvania. A cold front will be moving through the region through Monday followed by a rush of cooler air and drier air with PWATs several deviations below normal less than 1inch. Isobars remain tightly packed through Friday as the remnants of Ike pull off into Canada delivering us a dry northwesterly flow. Winds will gust at times to nearly 30mph delivering wind chills in the 60s A few morning rain showers cannot be ruled out with the frontal passage across the state. QPF will generally be less than .1inch. A temperature drop of nearly 10-15degrees will be felt after the front delivering highs of near seasonable values, maybe slightly warmer across the far southeast. Downsloping winds will dry conditions out later in the day. Some residential moisture may hang around the lakes throughout much of the day. High pressure builds in across the region as thickness levels drop to less than 9C throughout much of the week. The trough will dominate the east coast weather creating cool westerly winds during the day with calm winds overnight. Skies will be generally clear with dry air aloft. Some afternoon instability cumulus can be ruled out, though. Perfect radiational cooling conditions will persist throughout the week with low temperatures possibly in the 30s several nights across the far north. A brief upper level low could impact weather across the region late in the week, as indicated by the ensembles, but at this point that would only bring cloudy conditions along with spotty lake effect rain showers. Temperatures remain below normal through the period.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Weekly Forecasts" (Updated 9/14)
Monday- As the cold front moves across the region, briefly rain showers could accompany the front. Dry air follows the front, but still some leftover moisture will create mostly cloudy skies across the west and north. But in the east sunshine will pop out later in the day. Highs will be nearly 15degrees lower than Sunday with highs near 84degrees across the southeast near Philadelphia and near 65degrees across northern Pennsylvania near Bradford. Central Pennsylvania will see highs in the 70s. Winds will be gusty at times from the northwest with gusts near 30mph in the valleys and up to 35mph on the ridge tops. Skies will clear from east to west for Monday night with calming winds. Lows will be quite cold and in the mid 50s across the south-central to low 40s across the northwest.

Tuesday- High pressure will dominate the region with partly cloudy skies full of puffy cumulus indicating fair weather. Some morning ground fog cannot be ruled out, especially along the river valleys where the water temperature and air temperature contrast will be near 20degrees or more. Fog will seek visibilities as low as .5miles across the northern and western branch of the Susquehanna River. Highs will be in the 70s for all locations, except for some 60s for elevations above 2000ft. Tuesday night skies will clear and winds will calm. Dewpoints will be in the 40s letting temperatures drop into the upper 30s across the north, mid 40s across western and central areas, and upper 40s across the east. Urban areas will struggle to drop below 50degrees. Some areas of frost may occur across the north.

Wednesday- The trough remains parked over the region with a wonderful taste of Fall across much of the state. More ground fog can be anticipated Wednesday morning as temperature and dewpoint temperatures will be met. Fog will generally limit visibilities to near 1mile. Winds will be from the west near 5-10mph throughout the day. Cloud cover will be limited across southern regions, but across the north fair weather cumulus can be expected. Highs will be similar to Tuesday with temperatures generally in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Once again skies will clear giving way to a cool night Wednesday with lows dropping into the 40s. These cool clear nights will help to aid fall foliage across northern areas.

Thursday- Once again, I sound like a broken record, the trough will be over the east coast. There are a few indications of a weak cut-off low across southern Canada which may lead to cloudy conditions, but at this point I will keep skies at partly to mostly cloudy. Highs may be slightly cooler as the trough reinforces itself. Highs will struggle to reach 70 across the north. Southeastern areas will generally be near 75degrees. Elsewhere highs will be in the mid 70s. Skies will clear for Thursday night and the northwest wind will subside. Ideal radiational conditions will occur making for the coldest night of the season so far. I do expect temperatures to drop to the freezing mark across northern Pennsylvania with low to mid 40s elsewhere. Very chilly night with frosts reported pretty widespread across the north. Dense fog will also form.

Friday- A beautiful day to end the workweek with high pressure over the region and a westerly breeze. Highs will be cool once again and very similar to Thursday with them near 70 across the west, 73 across central areas, and 75 across the east. Skies will clear for Friday night for a great Friday night football night across the region. It will feel very fall like with lows dropping into the 40s and possibly upper 30s across the north. Conditions will remain dry across the state.

Saturday- Morning ground fog can be expected. High pressure remains over the region from the recently enforced trough from Thursday. A breezy northwest wind will dominate along with fair weather clouds. Temperatures will be below normal from the upper 60s to mid 70s across the south. Any clouds during the day will give way to clear skies and dry weather for Saturday night as temperatures drop in the 40s. Again more ground fog will be likely to form.

Sunday- As the trough begins to slide to the east and high pressure moves off the coast, the flow will turn more southwesterly drawing in some higher low-level moisture dewpoints and warmer temperatures. After some patchy morning ground fog partly cloudy skies will persist throughout the day. Highs will be near to slightly above normal near 75degrees across the north and 80degrees across the south. Skies clear for a nice night Sunday night ahead of another trough. Dewpoints slightly higher will keep temperatures mainly in the 50s with a few 40s in the sheltered valleys.

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Fall Foliage Outlooks" (Updated 9/14)
We are entering mid September which now makes it time to start looking at Fall color across much of the northeast. Thanks to a very dry and chilly August leaves have already begun to change across much of the state, especially across northern areas with elevations over 2000ft. Also across the Laural Highlands there are reports of patchy leave color change. Sumac leaves have already turned red and died across much of the state. And now birch and maple trees and beginning to turn very slightly. I am anticipating an early fall foliage season with October being the peak month this year, instead of November like last year. If anyone is experiencing fall leave change, I would love to see pictures and hear reports.

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 9/14)
We are now entering the dry season of Fall, so now forest fires are becoming an increasing threat. With fall leaves covering the landscape and dry troughs move over the region with northwesterly breezes, this makes for perfect forest fires conditions. Last year there were several fires near the Lock Haven region as they were quite dry. Mountains in that region suffered pretty rough from the forest fires and Little Pine Creek State Park actually had to shut down for a certain time being. Already the vegetation is beginning to grow again making for a healthier forest. None-the-less everyone should act responsibly while camping outdoors to prevent forest fires. Stay tuned to latest advisories such as red flag warnings typically issued around this time of year and through the Fall season. Once again here is the criteria according to the State College NWS for fire development...Link.

Criteria for rapid initiation and spread of wildfires in PA:

1. Winds must be sustained at 15 mph (13 knots) for two hours or more, and

2. Minimum Relative Humidities (which usually occur in the afternoon) must be 30 percent or less, and

3. 10-hour Fuel Moistures must be 15 percent or less (and expected to remain there for two or more days).

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Fall Gardening Outlook" (Updated 9/14)
We are now moving into fall gardening, which includes some of my favorite plants such as mums and ornamental cabbage plants. Also this includes cool-weather crops for vegetables. This time of year I always love all of the fall decorations that people begin to put up this time of year, also the Fall festivals. My vegetable garden is still in pretty high gear with peppers still ripening and growing larger. My roma tomato plants are now growing a second round of tomatoes, but I do not anticipate any of them to ripen in time before the first frosts. My lettuce crops are doing wonderful with several very large varieties. My spinach plants finally died, and I never did get any harvests. I do not think they received enough light in the area I planted them. My brocolli, cauliflower, and cabbage plants are still recovering from the terrible groundhog attack back in August, but looking at them I doubt they will be able to recover. My herbs are doing pretty well with the basil plant out of control. My garlic chive plant is beginning to slow down growth, and my parsley plant was recently damaged by the groundhog. I have recently seen how the groundhog gets in my garden. He leaps like a gazelle over the fence even through he is as large as an ogre. Anyways the parsley plant was too large anyway. My spring onions (scallions) are still growing for a great Fall crop. My cucumber plant is also still producing cucumbers, but now parts of it are showing signs of rotting. Still though it lasted large than I thought it ever would. My radish seeds are getting large and still growing wonderfully. Overall my garden is doing pretty well during this transition season.

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 9/14)
Looking ahead towards next week it appears as if a ridge may try to build in across the region for the beginning of the week ahead of another strong cold front with low-pressure system followed by a deep trough. The overall pattern I believe is favorable for seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures. Looking at GFS and EURO mean forecasts for the 8-10 period they average a relatively zonal flow with a slightly weak trough over the eastern parts of the United States. The NAO is heading negative again relatively sharply indicated by some ensembles, and the PNA is heading positive. This all favors east coast cool weather with a trough. GFS runs have been consistently indicating a very steep trough over the east in the 24-30th of September time period with the 0C thickness level across the New York/Pennsylvania border. This would intern bring very cool high temperatures, probably in the 50s and 60s along with low temperatures widespread in the 30s for lows with frosts and freezes across the region. Long term EURO monthly outlook did favor a cool end to the month of September. Precipitation looks to be running normal with periods of dry and relatively wet weather through the rest of the month.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (September)
It is a little late, but due to other priorities such as Tropical Storm Hanna and my winter forecast, I am getting out my September outlook a little late. As for my August outlook, my call for cooler than normal temperatures definitely panned out for all across Pennsylvania as some areas were nearly 6degrees below normal. But my call for wetter than normal precipitation was very poor. In fact it was one of the driest Augusts for many areas with less than one inch of precipitation for many areas. The only areas that averaged near normal were areas across the western part of the state. August was anything but summer-like in which high temperatures only hit 90degrees once during the whole summer for many areas. So now it is time to take a look at what September may bring us. This past September it was very warm which caused some very late fall foliage across much of the Northeastern part of the country. October was also warm. September 1st is the beginning of meteorological Fall so now is the time for transition weather with cool nights, but yet still warm highs.

Temperature- Temperature wise I think temperatures end up near normal conditions. The first five days of September were all well above normal temperature wise across much of the northeast. Highs actually hit 90degrees four days in a row here in Harrisburg, which actually was only the third official heat wave of the year. Highs were nearly 10-15degrees above normal along with low temperatures near seasonal values. For the rest of the month I do not expect any more heat waves. Instead troughiness will dominate over the region as the NAO stays negative and the PNA remains positive.

Precipitation- Precipitation wise I expect much of Pennsylvania to average near normal, especially in eastern Pennsylvania which has already benefited a lot of rain from tropical storm Hanna. We also may have to deal with other remnants of tropical systems, possibly Ike as the latest GFS has indicated. Otherwise fronts will only provide slight precipitation, but still the weather pattern looks more active than the extremely dry August we saw.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 4
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 30

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 5
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 2.61inches
Yearly Precipitation- 31.84inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 17

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79. Zachary Labe
11:14 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
***New blog coming tonight in the typical Fall format for the upcoming week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
78. Zachary Labe
3:03 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
WxWyz- The last week of mornings have been refreshing and beautiful. I believe it is October 5 when our average lows dip below 50degrees. Thanks for stopping by!

wxgeek723- It will be interesting to watch, maybe a sign of the winter storm track? (crossing fingers) If this system does occur it will make for a very unusual jet stream pattern for September standards.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
77. wxgeek723
2:43 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Well this should be interesting. At least it's not like last year when it seemed like you had to watch every extratropical low for subtropical development. Looks like this storm won't be a candidate to earn the next name on the tropical cyclone list, but nor'easters can still do plenty of damage, even an untimely one. Those who plan on visiting the beach next weekend may want to heed the possible storm warnings...I bet if we do get a nor'easter, Wildwood will get bigger as usual!
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3545
76. WxWyz
2:40 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Hi Blizzard...43 degrees DOES sound refreshing!
More like a taste of Winter than Fall.
Have a good one! All is quiet here. Some patchy fog this morning but will dissipate rapidly.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 352 Comments: 3847
75. Zachary Labe
2:26 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
wxgeek723- Yea it is pretty cold for this time of year. Looks like first week of October will be very cold based on latest guidance. 0z GFS is very similar to 18z GFS and 6z GFS is slightly warmer. I still am waiting a few days on this coastal storm prediction, but interestingly enough the CPC is forecasting heavy rain and strong winds from the 25-27th for eastern portions of the middle atlantic.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
74. wxgeek723
2:23 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
43F?? That's real chilly!! Well, it's only about 60F here in the Philly suburbs with bright, sunny skies. Great weather for the festival in my town today later this afternoon, and that open house. I'm a little excited for an "off-season" nor'easter possibility. In one of my last blogs I got a little into nor'easters and their affects, but said the rest had to wait. Now, it may not have to!
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3545
73. Zachary Labe
2:05 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
jthal57- Low of 43degrees here this morning, the coldest morning yet. No fog here this morning.

JDinWPA- Lol, this groundhog has been a plague in my side for the past few weeks, but recently I have not seen him. Fingers crossed.

dean2007- Yea there is a decent storm chance. The air is pretty cold for the inner mountains with the 10m bringing in 32degree line as low as PA/NY border. For a reference during this last trough the 10m 32degree line was only as low as northern VT/NH even though valleys saw below freezing temperatures farther south.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
72. dean2007
1:52 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Big storm potential Blizzard, if the 18z GFS is right. Its chilly, but not cold.
71. JDinWPA
1:31 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Hi Bliz. With everything else going on this week, I finally had a chance to sit down and read your entire blog instead of a very quick perusal. Under the gardening section, I found this in reference to your groundhog:

He leaps like a gazelle over the fence even through he is as large as an ogre.

That is the funniest thing I've read for at least the past month! And what makes it doubly hilarious is that I've seen 'hogs' do exactly that! Thanks!

PS. You'd best hope that he is not a she.
70. jthal57
12:36 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Blizz- low of 40.5F here this AM. Early morning fog raised humidity levels to make it feel cold and damp!
69. Zachary Labe
12:20 AM GMT on September 20, 2008
For those hoping for a return of summer, I would not look at the 18z GFS. Talk about chilly conditions on the latest model run! 0C isotherm down to Mason-Dixon line on the 1st. Temperatures for widespread freezes across all of Pennsylvania with even snow flurries across New Hampshire and Vermont's northern mountains. 10m shows temperatures below freezing and 850s below freezing with .01inches printed out over region. Based on pattern it is just trough after trough. NAO is heading negative and PNA is spiking positive. AO is also heading sharply negative.

October 1 (850s and precip.)

Now remember this is a long way out and it is the unreliable 18z model run.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
68. Zachary Labe
11:53 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
Stanb999- I am a little surprised, how does your mountain top fare during radiational cooling? Some mountains do not radiate well. I heard a report of frost near Old Forge, PA this morning up that way.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
67. Stanb999
11:49 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
Blizzard,

No frost on this little mountain top, 41F this morning @ 6:00AM.

I drive to the Scranton area for work.... The only place I saw a bit of frost was the slopes/ridges near Elk Mountain.

Been burning the wood stove for the last three days, Just a little in the evening.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444
66. Zachary Labe
11:15 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
dean2007- I did some further investigation on what you mentioned and I found a few results. Especially my NWS...

A LOT OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH FRONT BY NEXT WEEKEND...
THUS WENT A LITTLE LOWER WITH POPS IN SOME SPOTS THAN GMOS.

ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE SE...A TROPICAL AS WELL AS A SEMI-
TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD COME INTO PLAY AT SOME POINT.

OVERALL...FINE LATE SUMMER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRST DAY OF FALL IS NEXT MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

Also how are temperatures doing on the Cape Cod area during this cool weather?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
65. dean2007
11:08 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
Blizzard, Dr. Masters said that a Nor'easter could develop sometime in 6-7 days, not likely tropical.
64. JDinWPA
10:00 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
Well, that explains it. There was an ENE wind this morning!
63. Zachary Labe
9:39 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
JDinWPA- Last night a very light northeasterly wind occured in many unsheltered areas such as areas on hills, ridgetops, open valleys, and urbanized area. While sheltered valleys up near Bradford dipped near freezing. I did hear reports of frosts across northern Pennsylvania and across the northern Poconos. Some record lows were also broken across the north in Saranac Lake New York reaching 24degrees, and Caribou Maine reaching 27degrees. In fact that was the earliest 27degree reading ever recorded in Caribou.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
62. JDinWPA
9:28 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
Hey Bliz. The NWS forecast for WPA seems to be off a bit for the past two days. Pitts was forecast to go down to 45 last night and only dipped to 50. Yesterday I beat the predicted high for Butler by 5 degrees and that happened again today. Usually I'm a degree or two below Butler. It's off but since it's to the warm side, that's great! Helps make up for all the days I never came close to the forecasted high.
61. Zachary Labe
7:26 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
dean2007- Nor'easter? I heard some rumors of a coastal low off the Carolinas possibly affecting parts of the east, but today's 12z GFS seems to dismiss that. Have you heard something else?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
60. dean2007
7:16 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
Blizzard, any thoughts on the possible Nor'easter next week?
59. Zachary Labe
7:12 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- It got down to 44degrees here. But in the shelter valleys of my county about 10miles to my north it got down to 40degrees. Pretty darn chilly.

cchamp6- I have been smelling woodsmoke for the last couple nights here in the valley. Thanks for your report, I was thinking you might get a little chillier than that though.

jthal57- I just love this weather. Today the high has been 67degrees here with partly cloudy skies. Thanks for your report.

JDinWPA- Once again it seems like your area does not quite radiate like some other areas. Though last night it took slightly longer than forecast for winds to subside. Another cold night tonight can be expected.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
58. JDinWPA
1:53 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
Good morning Bliz. It didn't get as cold as predicted here overnight; we just dipped to 43. Not surprising though, yesterday's high was a few degrees warmer than forecast also. Have a good day!
57. jthal57
11:46 AM GMT on September 19, 2008
Blizzard- had a low of 45.1F here this AM.
CChamp- fire sounds great. Gotta love the smell of that first fire of the season!! Might have to build one in my outdoor pit this weekend!
56. TheRasberryPatch
11:24 AM GMT on September 19, 2008
wow, cc. a fire already going. i haven't turned off my AC yet. Its hard to open the windows because you never know if the wonderful smell of manure will come in the house.
still golfing, CC?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
55. cchamp6
11:09 AM GMT on September 19, 2008
Good morning,

My morning low is 37. I actually had a small fire in the wood stove last evening to break the chill.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
54. TheRasberryPatch
11:07 AM GMT on September 19, 2008
Good morning Blizz. a low is occurring at this moment of 46.4F.
nice and crisp out. still wearing shorts, though.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
53. Zachary Labe
10:13 AM GMT on September 19, 2008
hurigo- Good morning!!! Sounds wonderful and I bet the beach was quiet and not crowded with people. There was a strong onshore breeze yesterday and still day making for some rip currents, high waves, and gusty winds.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
52. hurigo
1:55 AM GMT on September 19, 2008
Hey Blizz,
I know you are loving this fall weather. I went to the beach today and it was beautiful. water was warm, but a little rough, so only up-to-me-knees was my rule.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
51. Zachary Labe
12:42 AM GMT on September 19, 2008
wxgeek723- Tomorrow morning be sure to check out temperatures across the north especially Saranac Lake. I expect many areas to reach freezing across extreme northern Pennsylvania and this is slightly early compared to normal. My map above shows the typical dates. Another unusual thing are the how low the dewpoints are. My dewpoint is 43degrees right now and slowly falling.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
50. wxgeek723
12:38 AM GMT on September 19, 2008
Ughh. Neither can I. It's an image of all the Freeze Watches in Warnings in New York on Vermont. Maybe this is an omen?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3545
49. Zachary Labe
12:35 AM GMT on September 19, 2008
wxgeek723- I cannot see the image. Some areas are really dropping tonight in temperature. Mt. Washington, NH is already at 27degrees. Winds have yet to decouple here for maximum radiational cooling.


***Sunday forecast has been issued.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
48. wxgeek723
12:29 AM GMT on September 19, 2008


Brr! Looks like summer really is over...
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3545
47. Zachary Labe
12:02 AM GMT on September 19, 2008
JDinWPA- Lol, that is no typo and not quite celsius. Their growing season will be abruptly ending tonight with lows in the low 20s to upper teens in the most sheltered valleys.

TheRasberryPatch- Interesting, may have to try that with a stir fry. Though it just seems when peppers are thrown into the mix, there is always that distinct pepper flavor.

dean2007- This has been lots of rumors about that possibility with it forms off the Carolina coast off the remnants of a cold front. We will see, I am not jumping on the bandwagon yet. CTP mentioned it in their long term outlook today and off course Accuweather is already hyping the threat. See HM's blog on Accuweather, I think he had a video about it today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
46. dean2007
9:25 PM GMT on September 18, 2008
Whats this idea of a subtropical or tropicl cyclone developing off the East Coast? I heard this from Dr. Masters's blog. I was just wondering where I could find information on this system?
45. JDinWPA
8:46 PM GMT on September 18, 2008
Surely they mean celsius and NY is in for a balmy night.
44. TheRasberryPatch
8:45 PM GMT on September 18, 2008
Wow that is a low for that part of NY?
Blizz - I am not much of a pepper fan except for stir fry and like the recipe i mentioned. that is why i cut them in strips and then freeze them. just pull them out of the freezer and saute with onions for stir fry or similar. when you grill them like i mentioned they get nice and soft and a great flavor.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
43. JDinWPA
8:36 PM GMT on September 18, 2008
That 18 is a typo, right?
42. Zachary Labe
8:23 PM GMT on September 18, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Yes this has been a great September with enough rainfall and pleasant temperatures, which will probably be around 1-3degrees above normal when the month ends. I am still getting some green tomatoes and a few peppers. I am not a big pepper fan, especially green peppers, but that little recipe mixture sounds pretty good.

Look at this NWS grid forecast for 15miles south of Saranac Lake, NY...

Tonight: Widespread frost after midnight. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 18. North wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
41. TheRasberryPatch
7:58 PM GMT on September 18, 2008
Blizz - so far this september seems great. almost perfect. any thoughts?
I am still getting tomatoes after not getting any most of the summer, especially cherry tomatoes. i have picked many peppers, also. I have charred some on the grill to get the skin off. and will cut the most in strips and freeze them for the winter. I have yellows and reds and greens. a nice mixture of colors.
a great recipe with them is to char the peppers onthe grill (charcoal ha ha) and then put them in a bowl with plastic wrap over the bowl. let them steam for 20 mins. then peel the skin off and chop the peppers. grill some corn and cut kernels off the cob. mix cut peppers and corn and a chopped onion with a balsamic vinagrette. it is so good.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
40. Zachary Labe
7:07 PM GMT on September 18, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good afternoon!!! Should be interesting to see temperatures drop tonight. If we can get the winds to calm down, then watch out as temperatures will plumit. But if winds stay variable then temperatures will not drop as much.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
39. TheRasberryPatch
11:46 AM GMT on September 18, 2008
Good morning Blizz - another beautiful morning. i had a low of 51.4F
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
38. Zachary Labe
10:18 AM GMT on September 18, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Pretty chilly out there again this morning with lows in the upper 40s. Should be interesting to see what happens tonight. One concern though I have is winds not subsiding. Friday night could be just as cold around here too.

wxgeek723- This is interesting. I guess the urban heat island effect is pretty widespread around that metropolitan area.

shoreacres- There is nothing like the Autumn chill here across the north. I hope for the best for you this week when returning home and be sure to stop by with an update. I wonder when electricity will return to some of those towns, probably months I guess.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
37. shoreacres
4:19 AM GMT on September 18, 2008
Good evening, Blizzard,

Well, I got my taste of "coolth" in KC last night - slept with the window open and two blankets, and shivered a bit all night long - a little with the cold and a little with delight. It's going to be a while before I have that treat again!

All that seafood talk is making my mouth water -we have wonderful shrimp, but I do love a good lobster, and you just don't find them down here. A couple of Cajun friends keep telling me that crawfish are just mini-lobsters, but that's one story I'm not buying.

Have a good rest of the week - I'm all eager to see what mine brings, although there's some trepidation mixed in. No matter how bad things look on tv, reality is always different. Not always worse, just different - more real.

Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
36. wxgeek723
1:09 AM GMT on September 18, 2008
Not too bad actually. I walk to school in the morning and I'd have to say it was about 60-65F. I know there is some really chilly air (for this time of year anyway) swooping down from the north. Philly usually misses out on events like that. I wouldn't be surprised if my area got like 5 inches of snow for the entire upcoming winter when say New York City, about 2 hours from me, gets a record. Snow is mesoscale like that anyway.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3545
35. TheRasberryPatch
1:06 AM GMT on September 18, 2008
Blizz - you are correct that you get some great fresh seafood up at Bar Harbor, but Baltimore has fresh seafood stores all over the city and surrounding counties. freshly caught, not just crabs. now you won't find fresh lobsters unless they are shipped and in a tank at the store or restaurant.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
34. Zachary Labe
12:45 AM GMT on September 18, 2008
wxgeek723- Sure thing. I think you are right because I think 1999 emerged as a very strong La Nina. Not quite sure on ENSO patterns though, I do not really follow them to closely compared to other people. So how cold did it get down there near Philadelphia this morning?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
33. wxgeek723
12:41 AM GMT on September 18, 2008
As always, thanks for visting my blog. I believe 1998 began with a strong El Nino and ended with a moderate La Nina. I' have to check the CPC sometime later on to see if I'm correct.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3545
32. Zachary Labe
12:23 AM GMT on September 18, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Yes you are right there are lots of restaurants in Baltimore, more than Maine, but there is nothing like Bar Harbor, Maine fresh seafood.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
31. TheRasberryPatch
9:19 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Good afternoon, Blizz. the Rusty Skupper is good, but there are hundreds of restaurants in and around the Baltimore area that prepares seafood so good. Annapolis and the eastern shore is another. OCMD has many. Just can't find it like that anywhere else.

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
30. Zachary Labe
7:45 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Slightly early to see this widespread of a frost...

WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
333 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-
236 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
29. Zachary Labe
7:12 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good afternoon!!! 46degrees here this morning, talk about chilly. First real morning I was actually cold since June. I do not know about that, Maine has some pretty darn good seafood. One of my favorite seafood restaurants in Baltimore is called I think the "Rusty Skupper" which is located sort of on an island on the water right in inner harbor.

jthal57- Good afternoon!!! Thanks for your report. Should be extremely chilly Friday morning. I am not ruling out a 39degree reading in our area. Possibly in the 20s in northern Pennsylvania.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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