Major Lake Effect Snow Outbreak!!!

By: Zachary Labe , 2:59 PM GMT on December 31, 2007

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Afternoon Thoughts...
Well this is going to be quite a lake effect snow outbreak for many areas across Pennsylvania. Also as of 100pm the cold front is headed into the Susquehanna Valley. As the front moves through it will get windy with falling temperatures and some areas may even see a snow squall associated with it.

Warnings...
Winter Storm Warning...
Northwest Mountains
Erie Coastal Plain
Laural Highlands
Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory...
Western Mountains
Pittsburgh Metro Area

Lake Effect Snow Analysis...
Well what an outbreak I think is going to happen. For one thing Lake Erie is still relatively mild for this time of year with little ice coverage. Another point is we are going to get hit with the coldest air so far this season. Also the air is not that dry so squalls will be able to develop. Another point is that the lake effect will be enhanced by the clipper and a few minor disturbances moving through the region. It appears the worst of the snow will be during the day on Wednesday. Also temperatures will be well below freezing across the entire state of Pennsylvania. So even light snow will stick to the ground. Winds will be out of the northwest and gust to up to 30mph at times tonight and tomorrow. This we draw lake effect snow to even areas east of the mountains. I would not be surprised to see lake effect snow showers all the way to Philadelphia. Now lets talk accumulations... Well I would say the worst of the snow will be in the laural highlands, northwest mountains, and erie coastal plain. Some of the higher elevations in those regions may see over a foot of snow by Thursday morning. Elevations at or above 2000ft could see accumulations of 10-16inches in localized areas. This will be great for the ski resorts such as Blue Knob. Also watch out for accumulations around 6inches for the valleys of those tall mountains. Towns such as Indiana, Latrobe, Johnstown, Bradford, Erie, and Somerset will probably see accumulations of 6-8inches. Although some of those places may see more. Now for areas near Du Bois in the westcentral mountains may see advisory level accumulations of around 3-6inches. Though I think maybe even more than that is possible. For areas near State College and Williamsport, they will even probably see 2-3inches of snow too. The lake effect snow will be widespread with it mostly being large plums of snow and cellular. In the large plums there could be imbeded heavy banding. In this banding is where accumulations will be heaviest with snow rates near 2-3inches per hour. Pittsburgh will also probably see 2-4inches of snow too. Now for areas just east of the mountains such as Harrisburg. They too may see a coating to 2inches of snow if the banding sets up. For southern areas such as York and Lancaster it appears they will only see a coating of snow. And Philadelphia just flurries. Also some Huron-Erie streamers could form and they could cause the classic rt22 lake effect snow band. So for areas from Philipsburg to State College to Lewistown to Harrisburg. This will be something to watch. For northeastern areas such as near Scranton and the poconos accumulations will be around 1-3inches and this will be from lake effect snow from Lake Ontario. The lake effect snow will wrap up by Thursday Morning. So if you must travel tomorrow across Pennsylvania take it easy because visibilities could go down to zero if you get caught in a squall. Be careful traveling on the PA turnpike and I-80 especially.
Lake Effect Snow Outbreak
I will have updates on the lake effect snow throughout the outbreak in which I will highlight where the banding sets up and who will see the highest snow amounts.

Radar...
Radar...

Update as of 730pm...
Well as of now the lake effect snow is not too widespread just quite yet across the state. Though snow reports of over 3inches have already come in across Warren County. Right now it appears the heaviest bandings is near Clarion and Du Bois. Also north of Pittsburgh is a intense band stretching into Indiana, Pennsylvania. As of now the flow has been westerly, but as the night goes on the flow will change to northwestnorth. Then we will see the radar light up across the state. I probably will have another update early tomorrow morning. For now have a great evening!

Update as of 630am...
Well the flow has yet to turn northwesterly. It appears things are calming down. But we may see things light up later today. I have seen snow reports of over 8inches come in already. The front has moved through and it had now squall line like the models predicted. Have a great day!

Have a Happy New Year!

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16. MDFirefighter
8:24 PM GMT on January 02, 2008
Good afternoon Blizz
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
15. Zachary Labe
8:19 PM GMT on January 02, 2008
We saw an early morning squall here in Harrisburg, PA. It dropped about .25inches of snow. The rest of the morning we just had flurries. This afternoon now it is sunny.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
14. Zachary Labe
5:29 PM GMT on January 01, 2008
Front is moving towards the Susquehanna Valley
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
13. Zachary Labe
9:16 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
This clipper will be quite potent. Again I think it will create a few surprises. Some people will probably end up with more snow than forecast.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
12. Zachary Labe
9:15 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
dean2007- keep me informed on your ocean effect snow possibility. I am very interested in lake effect snow and ocean effect snow
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
11. cchamp6
9:11 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
Another busted forecast for my area. Was expecting 3-6, 4-8, something along those lines. We had 1/2" last night, then freezig rain over to sleet and then back to snow. Had roughly 2". The NWS is all over the place for my area for tomm. I live in the borough of Bantam which is part of Litchfield,Ct. The NWS has a snow advisory that runs through my house! So I guess the back yard gets 3-6 and the front yard only gets a slushy 1"!!! My guess is the front yard will end up with a blizzard and the back yard gets a dusting. Funny my yard is only a 1/2 acre. Is this one of those storms that could completly fool everyone and dump and blow like crazy for 8-10 hours and leave everyone saying " what the hell just happened"?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
10. dean2007
9:01 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
Confidence in an Ocean Effect Snow event for the Outer Cape area has increased as the models as of 18z runs not including the GFS have continued the northerly wind trajectory although it doesn't show any precip, but that should change. I'm not completely confident in issuing any snowfall maps of significance.
9. lawntonlookers
8:22 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
Happy New Year. Will try and get a chance to check out the site in the morning. Be safe on New Years eve.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
8. edhanna
7:03 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
Howdy there. Nothing more than a nonmeasureable coating here in Allentown. Another dud. : (
7. WeatherBobNut
6:32 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
Hi guys...i got 5.5 inches here in Old Forge, Pa....clipper next! It was a good storm, very pretty scenes outside this morning!!
6. Zachary Labe
6:28 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
We are expecting some major lake effect snow for here in Pennsylvania.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
5. dean2007
4:47 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
Well the energy just can't through the mountains so it has to go over them, but I agree it is interesting how clippers do that, jumping to the coast. In anyways Cape COd, MA will go from rain Tuesday to Snow showers wednesday and Thursday as any westward shift of ocean effect snow showers will come in my region. So the chance for snow is there as temperatures will fall into the 20's Tuesday night and stay in the low 30's Wednesday and then into the teens for highs on Thursday which is when the GFS has OES for us, a complete weather summary in my blog for any snowfall maps and heads up, people in southern VT, NH and ME will have to dig out from a foot of snow Wedmesday morning.
4. lawntonlookers
4:28 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
I kind of agree with your forcast. Not quite sure if the L that forms off of the coast will have much to do with us in Harrisburg, although it appears that it will get better orginized as the storm gets closer. It is strange how the Lows jump from inland to the ocean that quickly.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
3. Zachary Labe
3:26 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
Thankyou for your report.

I was pretty close with my snow amounts on my map for the Harrisburg region. For regions near the mason-dixon line I was way too high on snow amounts.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
2. PalmyraPunishment
3:20 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
Carlisle, PA

Heavy Snow continued into overnight hours... about 2.5-3.0 inches.

Local Meteorologists never confirmed it was snowing. Great job on their behalf
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
1. Zachary Labe
3:03 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
I would like to get some storm reports from people across Pennsylvania.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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