Thursday regional forecast...

By: Zachary Labe , 4:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2008

Share this Blog
0
+

"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 8/12)
What a wonderful trip I had up to Oswego, New York. What was most surprising was the extreme weather I ran into along my trip. Driving along Rt. 81 North we ran into some very impressive thunderstorms that were just to the east of Syracuse. That thunderstorm to the east had one of the most impressive anvil clouds I have ever seen. And as typical with supercell thunderstorms, mammatus clouds formed on the underside of the anvil. The storm appeared to be very organized with a clear-cut structured core of the storm. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for the storm at the time. Later that evening after arriving in Oswego, a few thunderstorms formed to the west of the city tracking eastward. While eating dinner along the marina I heard some of the captains from incoming boats about the waterspouts reported nearby. Most all of the boats were rushing into dock all telling the same story. Unfortunately I was not able to see the waterspout over water, but fortunately it made no damage to any land mass area or boats over water. Then later that evening the cell finally moved into the area with loud thunder and very heavy rain. Then shortly after the heaviest of the rain the sun came out, but before the storm ended hail began to fall almost covering the streets and sidewalks of downtown Oswego. Hail was the size of dime-sized to penny sized. Some reports out of the area reported that hail fell to the depth of 3inches in surrounding suburbs. I have never seen such a vicious storm occur during when the sun was out for the majority of the storm. The last time I saw hail in Harrisburg was back in June of 2006, so it had been a while since I have seen hail. As the storm ended some mammatus clouds moved over the region then giving way to a brilliant sunset which I did get pictures of as the thunderstorm departed. The next morning around 5:15am we boarded the fishing boat and headed out. Meanwhile it was raining moderately with an occasional lightning strike. It was very eerie heading out while it was dark with occasional lightning; also we were the only boat out there that early in the morning. But by later in the morning the rain cleared to give way to mostly cloudy skies with some lake-effect rain showers in the area. Our boat caught a total of 3 brown trout and 1 salmon all of which were keep able. On the drive home more unusual weather occurred with occasional rain showers along with cool temperature of 57degrees just outside of Hazleton around 6:30pm. There were areas of dense fog on the ridges along with a brilliant rainbow in the distance. All in all the fishing was just as successful as the interesting weather that occurred during the two-day trip. Who would have thought I would have to travel to Oswego, New York to see some impressive thunderstorms. In any case enjoy the sunset pictures below!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Short Term Forecast" (Updated 8/12) (Wednesday through Thursday night)
Wednesday a weak front moves in from the west with very limited moisture. The front may squeeze out some showers and thunderstorms across the state continuing into Thursday. A little morning ground fog may be possible across the southern mountain valleys as some slightly higher dewpoints move in for Tuesday night creating some fog for Wednesday as skies remain clear and winds remain calm. Highs for Wednesday will be near seasonal values with dewpoints in the 60s. Wednesday night skies remain variable for some nocturnal showers and thunderstorms. A slight CAP remains over the region as an area of subsidence moves over the region limiting thunderstorms to very low tops with little threat of severe weather. PWATs are not overly impressive by any means. Pretty impressive low pressure begins to churn up the east coast as it moves northeast out to sea. For Thursday some showers and thunderstorms will occur thanks to the cold pocket aloft and the sunshine. CAPE values will be marginal near 1500 j/kg. The low pressure will continue to spin northeast of the region for Friday. Tracks differ as far as the global models go with the latest 12z GFS coming more in line with the NAM. The EURO is farthest west with high winds and heavy rain scraping New England. Meanwhile the NAM and GFS keep heavy precipitation confined only to the Cape Cod and Nantucket region. At this point I think the farthest east solution is best, as a trough will push the low out to sea. The only impacts I see is a few rain showers along with some high waves and coastal tides along the Atlantic seaboard. Highs for Thursday will be seasonable to slightly below normal. Thursday night skies will clear from west to east as lows drop in the upper 50s to low 60s across the state. A few showers could occur early on for Thursday evening.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Long Term Forecast" (Updated 8/12)
First I will talk about the weather for the rest of the week. Then I will update a forecast through the end of the month. Friday looks to be a unsettled day with showers and thunderstorms over most of the region as a weak front moves through. Saturday though things clear out for a nice weekend. Saturday night through Sunday night look to be nice days. But a front approaches for next week with scattered chances of convection. Looking ahead towards the rest of the month, the GFS continues a very similar pattern as right now with troughs continuing to progress over the region. But the 0z EURO develops a bubble of high pressure over the Midwest with more heat across the nation. At this point I think a solution in between is likely with periods of troughs and zonal patterns with temperatures on either side of slightly above or below normal temperatures. Nothing too extreme looks likely at this point. The NAO is headed back towards slightly positive with the PNA right about zero. The AO is headed and staying negative for the most part. The Climate Prediction Center believes temperatures will be slightly above normal with above normal precipitation for the end of the month. My August outlook seems that it will play out pretty good for the rest of the month.

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 8/12)
Wildfire chances remain extremely low for the next coming week. Conditions will remain plentiful with rain along with cooler temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. Winds will remain breezy throughout the week under a northwest flow. Cloud cover will also be pretty widespread over the region for the upcoming week. Looking across the nation there is really not any widespread threat areas for forest fires, but none the less the West looks to have some possible threats this coming week as temperatures are somewhat high along with dewpoints in the teens. Any accidental fires or dry thunderstorms could develop forest fires and make them become pretty widespread. Please take necessary precautions when camping outside. Here again are the fire criteria for development in Pennsylvania... Link.

Criteria for rapid initiation and spread of wildfires in PA:

1. Winds must be sustained at 15 mph (13 knots) for two hours or more, and

2. Minimum Relative Humidities (which usually occur in the afternoon) must be 30 percent or less, and

3. 10-hour Fuel Moistures must be 15 percent or less (and expected to remain there for two or more days).

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 8/12)
It is a sad day in the vegetable garden of mine. Some terror has wreaked havoc in parts of my garden. It all started the day before I left for my fishing trip. That morning I saw the groundhog slowly moving across the yard headed towards the carrots in my garden. Keep in mind I do have a large chicken wire fence surrounding my entire garden. So I scared the groundhog away and there he went back under the shed. Well later that day near evening I went outside to water, and I stood there shocked. It looked like a vicious storm had just went through. Three zucchini were eaten off the plant, a part of a cucumber was eaten, a bite out of a tomato, miniature lettuce heads were gone, carrot tops were bare, and the new cabbage plants were slightly eaten. So out of frustration I put rocks around the fence and more stakes to hopefully prevent the “thing” from eating any more of my plants. Honestly I really am not sure what got in the garden. Then this morning I go out to check my garden after I arrived home last night and to my astonishment there were two tomatoes eaten, the actual zucchini plant leaves were eaten, and all of the cabbage plant leaves were eaten. Sadly I stared at my once beautiful garden. Now the garden is in a state of healing which will only slowly delay my hopefully bountiful harvest in the late Fall. I saw no sign of how anything possibly could have gotten in the garden. But in any case I will keep my eyes wide open in the coming days. If anything else happens I will have to take some type of action. I know people have warned me about this with the groundhog theory and I was reluctant to take any precautions. But now this is getting more serious. In any case here is a quick update on the plants that survived the attack. My spring onions are looking wonderfully growing twice as fast as they did in the very early Spring. My pepper plants have a few peppers with one green pepper extremely large soon ready for picking I hope. My spinach plant growth seems stunted and does not want to seem to grow. My cauliflower plants are growing great and look much more healthier than when I bought them. Lastly my herbs are doing wonderfully, almost growing too large. Looking ahead this week after the recent rains across the state soil moisture anomalies are near normal to above normal. With more rains expected this week and cool weather plants should do great with watering only necessary between rains.

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 8/12)
Organized severe weather chances look dim for the upcoming days. Times of convection are forecast, but severe weather should not accompany the storms. For Wednesday and Thursday thunderstorms are a threat across the state, but low instability and meager kinematics will be responsible for little severe weather other than maybe a few pea sized hail reports thanks to the cold mid and upper levels. Enough instability should develop across parts of southern Pennsylvania for a few hail storms that will be marginally severe. The cold pool aloft is responsible for the instability of the pulse severe thunderstorms. This severe threat will occur for Thursday and Friday. As another trough departs the flow may turn more southerly returning some more mild air and humid air as another front approaches the region for next week. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Saturday through Monday as a warm front lifts northward and a cold front approaches from the west. I have yet to investigate whether the severe weather variable will accompany the frontal passage. So overall severe weather chances remain pretty low with the coming week. The section will not be updated unless it become necessary due to changes in the forecast for severe weather for the upcoming week.

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (August)
Here is my experimental monthly outlook for the month of August. July has already come to an end and here is a little recap. Overall the month came out about normal for temperatures along with varying areas of precipitation anomalies. Some areas saw normal, below normal, or above normal precipitation. Overall my forecast turned out very well with my call for normal temperatures and normal precipitation. I am very pleased with how everything turned out. Now we look ahead to the last of the meteorological summer months. August is known for its complexes of thunderstorms and scorching heat. So what can be expected... Will it be hot and dry? Will it be cool and wet? Well below is my look for what I believe will be the August weather for this year...

Temperature- Looking at temperatures as we enter the month heat will be across much of Pennsylvania with temperatures above normal and in the 90s. But then a trough moves back into the region, and by next week the models really bring in a deep trough over the eastern sections of the nation. Looking at the NAO it looks to be staying negative through the entire month of August, which is indicative of eastern trough development. Now on the other side of the nation in the west the PNA will be moving towards a positive state, which correlates to a ridge over the west and trough over the east. So looking at the first part of the month will be warmer than normal temperatures followed by cooler than normal temperatures the last two thirds of the month. So overall temperatures should average about normal when it is all said and done and the warm air balances with the cool air.

Precipitation- Precipitation should be above normal for much of the state for August 2008. An active jet looks to be stationed over the region with first large MCSs moving along the northern perimeter of the ridge associated with warm air advection. This will bring heavy rain with these thunderstorm complexes. Then with the sudden pattern change from ridge to trough a large cold front should bring in some heavy thunderstorms. By the time the trough moves in many short waves will rotate in on the northwest flow. The driest area will probably be in eastern Pennsylvania with the wettest in northwestern Pennsylvania. But overall most areas should be above normal. This will be good for our lawns and gardens. Looking at drought conditions across the state all areas are not in any threat of a drought in the future.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Tropical Update" (Updated 8/12)
Tropics are becoming really active now as we enter mid August. We have several areas of concern across the Greater Atlantic in the coming days. Let me start off with the first major tropical wave. The tropical wave has officially been named Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center. The National Hurricane Center gives 93L a greater than 50% chance of further developing. Thunderstorms have flared up around the wave, but there has yet to an exact pinpoint area to where the low-level center of circulation is, and whether or not it is under convection. Shear levels remain high, which is inhibiting strong deepening of the system. Shear levels will be around 10knots for the next couple of days as the system chugs along to the west-northwest at 10mph. I do expect tropical depression status to be reached shortly possibly becoming our next tropical storm within the next couple of days. Model trends continue the track to the northwest eventually impacting the Bahamas. After that there is some large variability to where the storm goes. So at this point I will just say that the east coast should monitor this storm’s progression. The next wave is now named Invest 93L which I believe has a better chance to become a stronger storm despite the National Hurricane Center only giving it a 25%-50% chance of further developing. Wind shear is below 5knots and water temperatures are in the 27-29C vicinity. Some dry air may affect this storm, but I find most tropical systems are able to overcome dry air for the most part. This system will continue on a westerly track in the coming days and may eventually impact the Lee Ward Islands. Another much weaker wave is moving into Central America with a few showers and thunderstorms. No development is expected. Looking ahead in the future short term wise a coastal low will form off the Carolina coastline and track northeastward. This system does not look to be classified as tropical nature. As the only impacts to any land mass would be some rain showers and high waves along the East Coast. Long term outlook suggests further strong tropical waves will progress off of the coastline of Africa with possible development as they move westward. This tropical outlook section will be updated when necessary throughout the next couple of days. Interests along the United States coastline should be monitored during the next upcoming week.

"Latest Tropical Systems including Sea Surface Temperatures"


"Regional Forecasts" (Updated 8/14) (Thursday)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Scattered showers and thunderstorms thoughout the day under partly cloudy skies. A few storms may be strong to severe capable of small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Warm. High 80-82.

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be strong to severe capable of gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Seasonal temperatures. High 80-83.

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Partly cloudy. Some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Warm. High 83-85.

4. Central- (State College)-
Mostly cloudy with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 78-80.

5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Mostly cloudy with afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Cool. High 70-73.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms. Cool. High 75-78.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may produce heavy rain. Cool. High 75-77.

***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.


"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 4
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 29

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 0.86inches
Yearly Precipitation- 28.71inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 12

A beautiful sunset after the storm... (Blizzard92)
Dime to penny sized hail accompanied the supercell that was departing during the sunset.
A beautiful sunset after the storm...
A beautiful sunset after the storm... (Blizzard92)
Dime to penny sized hail accompanied the supercell that was departing during the sunset.
A beautiful sunset after the storm...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 94 - 44

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

94. Zachary Labe
2:21 PM GMT on August 15, 2008
Changed my mind. New blog coming today. (off topic blog on my tour of Accuweather)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
92. Zachary Labe
1:13 PM GMT on August 15, 2008
Today I will update regional forecasts for Friday, and possibly update short term forecast if I have time.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
91. Zachary Labe
1:08 PM GMT on August 15, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Well in any case that is still very impressive!

dean2007- Good morning!!! One thing I wanted to note this morning. Look at the storm reports from yesterday, particularily in Pennsylvania. There were very few isolated reports, but remember how many warnings there were. A watch was not necessary and maybe not even a slight risk. But in any case these storms were not as strong as the NWS believed them to be. Today may be the same case although there is slightly more shear today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
90. dean2007
12:47 PM GMT on August 15, 2008
Severe weather risk has decreased for Saturday. However the SPC has issued a slight risk for South New England, NY and PA. Mainly to the west of me, as always.
89. dean2007
2:36 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
Thanks Blizzard. The Sox won tonight 10-0. Great win for us. So the invest 92L is really beginning to ramp up again. I'll see you in the morning. Good Night!
88. TheRasberryPatch
1:32 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
Blizz - the bay was already there so i guess the strip of land that was there must not have been very wide. so now we have OC and Assateague seperated by the inlet. probably one of the best things for OC
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
87. Zachary Labe
1:25 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
JDinWPA- Good evening to you too!!! Places that have been getting rain keep getting rain while others are dry as ever. Strange summer. Yep cold temperatures and fog with no rain is much, much worse, ugh that sounds miserable. Cannot wait to see your picture! I always love when I get that perfect sunset picture. Have a nice evening!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
86. JDinWPA
1:18 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
Good evening Bliz. The storms that moved through weren't that bad. In fact, at the time of the warning I was outside watching it move across the north. Not much lightning to speak of but a decent amount of rain. And, most importantly, no hail. So I got .8" today, which makes 2.45" mtd. Is it ever going to stop? Although it seems to be hit and miss here. Today I was visiting with some friends who live in SW Butler County and they are rain deprived. They have cracks in the earth and haven't had to mow for three weeks. But they're still getting the cold temps and clouds. I suppose that's worse!

Got a good sunset pic tonight. Fog moved in before hand and made for excellent color as the sun broke out at the right time. Still waiting for approval though.
85. Zachary Labe
12:05 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Wow must have been quite a storm to form the inlet.

hurigo- Yep! I will have to look up that storm in my Pennsylvania historic weather record book which dates back to the 18th century. It sure has been a long time since a hurricane has affected the middle atlantic or new england. I guess Isabel was the last one that caused some large impact to the region.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
84. hurigo
11:55 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Thanks for the link, Blizz. I think you posted while I was thinking.
Patch--yes, that is what I read about the C&P... forming that inlet in OC
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
83. TheRasberryPatch
11:23 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
i believe that storm in 1933 is the one that opened the inlet in ocean city, maryland. they didn't say in the link.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
82. Zachary Labe
11:02 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
hurigo- Yep you are right, check out the link on comment #74.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
81. hurigo
10:55 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Blizz, I think Hazel was 1953. The C&P hurricane was before they had names. I think it was 1933 and it made some trouble from NC to York PA.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
80. Zachary Labe
10:33 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
dean2007- UTC - 5 hours = EST. (time zones)

jthal57- Any little bit of rain helps. Seems like for once today I got the least amount of rain.

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
79. Zachary Labe
10:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
dean2007- The end of the month should be interesting. But something important to note which I talked about in comment #53 is the NAO looks to be going negative through the rest of the month (at least as of today's prediction). So more troughiness? We will have to wait and see.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
78. dean2007
10:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Catch you later, maybe after Sox play.
77. jthal57
10:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Rain winding down here, got .12" we'll take it.
MTD: .83"
76. dean2007
10:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Blizzard what time is 18 utc. The NAM and GFS seem to agree on the placement on some high QPF on Saturday at 18utc, but I don't know when that is. I believe this means storms will be here by then.
75. dean2007
10:27 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
I believe there will be a system to threaten the East Coast sometime towards the end of the month. However conditions have to be perfect and that is some two weeks away still. Still there is no real visual signs that tells us the A/B ridge will build westward, sure models tells us, but until the trough breaks and moves west we will not have the conditions needed. Thanks for stopping by. Blizzard the CAPE values are some 1500 kg/j or something like that. Today was in the lower 80s and I believe it all depends on sunshine. The dynamics seems to be there according to the NWS and wind shear is pretty high, 30 to 40 knots.
74. Zachary Labe
10:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- I think I found the storm... 1933. Link. Well you did better with the rain than me. Nice little rain so there is no watering tonight.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
73. TheRasberryPatch
10:23 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
i got 0.20" of rain.
i don't recall the hurricane 35 years ago on that date. hmmmmmmmm. did it come up the coast? head out to sea? i recall being at the beach in the 70's and we were thinking of evacuating but the storm heading out to sea and it was sometime in the 70's and i think in the beginning of August
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
72. Zachary Labe
10:21 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
hurigo- Good evening!!! East coast looks like it will be impacted by some type of tropical system before the month's end. Keep monitoring. Do you mean Hurrican Hazel? That hurricane came up the Chesapeake and caused extreme damage in our area here in southern Pennsylvania including an 80mph wind gust reported at the nearby airport here. Also my relatives barn was severely damaged during that storm along with area flooding.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
71. hurigo
10:17 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Hey Blizz,
We're being alert and watching the tropical stuff. I guess we will know a lot more tomorrow once the model forms digest the data collected today. Thought of you and others in Pennsylvania earlier today when I was reading a story about the 35th (?) anniversary of the Chesapeake and Potomac Hurricane coming up August 23.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
70. Zachary Labe
10:16 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- An additional .04inches of rain here within the last hour.

dean2007- I have not really looked into Saturday. But I see the SPC thinks that the Cape Cod region will have its best thunderstorms day then.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
69. dean2007
10:12 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Saturday best severe weather chance for Southeastern MA.
68. TheRasberryPatch
9:29 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
so far the storms keep going around my house.
no rain as of yet
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
67. Zachary Labe
8:41 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- No post. I just keep putting it off. Yep hopefully a nice rain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
66. Zachary Labe
8:39 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
dean2007- There are lots of warnings. But really the only threat today has been hail reports that have not even been that severe in size. Really I just do not think it is necessary for a watch. Thundering louder here with a storm bearing down.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
65. TheRasberryPatch
8:38 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Blizz - did you guys buy the post? i haven't seen hide nor hair of my groundhog since i put mine in.
i see the rain is on its way.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
64. dean2007
8:37 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
I'm not surprise, look at all of those warnings in PA and NYC blizzard. Also it appears Satruday is becoming more favorable for severe weather, just check out my blog and you'll see why, also my thoughts on 92L although they are vague.
63. Zachary Labe
8:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
A little suprising to say the least...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 829 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BEDFORD CUMBERLAND
DAUPHIN FRANKLIN FULTON
LANCASTER LEBANON PERRY
SOMERSET YORK
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
62. dean2007
6:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
The temp is already at 82F according to WU and dew points are in the lower 60s, so there could be enough instability for storms to form, however I doubt it at this time for at least my location. It appears Friday and Saturday could be severe days, if we get enough sunshine.
61. Zachary Labe
6:37 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
dean2007- Pulse thunderstorms are very unpredictable for exact locations. And you are right about the short life spans. One cell may look like it is heading you way and then just completely die out. Lots of thunderstorms across Pennsylvania today, but none here yet. Some of the strongest cell cores are producing some hail today, so watch out!

08/14/2008 0119 PM

Hawley, Wayne County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
60. dean2007
5:28 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
I really dislike my chances whenever anyone says pulse type storms, that gives a very low confidence in knowing where the storms will be, unlike organized lines you have a general feeling for where they are going, same with MCS or even Derechos even if they are very strong storms. Pulse storms are the hardest to predict because of their size. I would give my area a 5% chance of a thunderstorm even if the radar showed a pulse type severe storm heading in my direction because of their very short lived life cycle.
59. Zachary Labe
5:16 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
dean2007- I thought he had a very interesting discussion this morning. There are a lot of things in the tropics to watch. The recon planes are in 92L right now, and it will be interesting to see if they find closed circulation. I still am not sure yet on how steering currents will lead this system, but at this point I think there are three scenerios.

1. System grazes through northern islands across bahamas westward through southeastern Florida, maybe into the Gulf.

2. System grazes through northern island and northern bahamas then turning northernly with landfall along southeast coast.

3. System stays north of islands moving west but the gradually turns move north then northeast becoming a fish storm.

I do think development will occur with 92L into Fay. But track is very much still in question. Instability is pretty high today with the cold pool aloft so I think there is a very good chance of storms across the northeast today with storms organized into pulse variety
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
58. dean2007
5:07 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Henry Margusity of Accuweather.com said the East Coast from NC to New England needs to watch out for two tropical system threats from Aug 20th to 30th. He was talking about the system north of the Lesser Antilles and the system that has recently left the African coast. What are your thoughts on 92L? Also cumulus clouds have developed over Cape Cod, MA this early afternoon. Could we get some storms today?
57. Zachary Labe
4:49 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
It's back!!!

(12z GFS for 30th of August)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
56. Zachary Labe
4:34 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
dean2007- Wow, I bet things are pretty choppy out there in the shipping lanes.

TheRasberryPatch- Already thunderstorms flaring up. Looks to be a pretty active day for convection. Groundhog spotting today by my neighbors in their garden. Ate their lettuce seedlings.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
55. TheRasberryPatch
4:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Blizz - as long as we have days of sun and heat i am alright with that
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
54. dean2007
4:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Now its down to 994mb and looking really good with a definite Low level circulation for our east coast storm.
53. Zachary Labe
4:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Some pretty interesting things to note for the long term. The long term global models have been predicting a large ridge to possibly build back over the east, but I just noticed that the NAO is now predicted to go back to negative. As we saw with that last predicted heat wave the NAO kept anough of a trough over the east to prevent real widespread warmth. So looks like temperatures may get into the mid 80s long term, but not necessarily a heat wave. A lot of interesting weather possibilities are ahead along with potential tropical system, active jet stream pattern, and lots of thunderstorm chances.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
52. Zachary Labe
2:20 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
dean2007- Thanks. Wow, 996mb. It is good this is not winter as in winter we would all be very mad that this went offshore, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
51. dean2007
2:14 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Great prediction Blizzard. Rain is remaining offshore as low is around 996mb, I guess the models were right afterall. Wow 92L is looking good.
50. Zachary Labe
2:01 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
WxWyz- Yea it is pretty unsettled here too. Thanks for stopping by!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
49. WxWyz
1:15 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
Jet stream still bringing you an unsettled pattern? Ripples in northwest upper flow bringing
us more chances of storms beginning tonight with significant upper low diving south by Saturday.
My kind of forecast!
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 352 Comments: 3847
48. Zachary Labe
1:09 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Well that is good to hear! More chances of showers and storms today and tomorrow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
47. TheRasberryPatch
12:10 PM GMT on August 14, 2008
i got 0.13" of rain last night. definitely getting some showers here the past week. 0.80" the past week. not bad. hope it helps the grass and trees and flowers and bushes.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
46. Zachary Labe
11:39 AM GMT on August 14, 2008
dean2007- The majority of the rain looks to remain offshore.



I had .04inches of rain last night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
45. dean2007
2:26 AM GMT on August 14, 2008
What about Cape Cod, MA Blizzard? This low appears to be over the NC coast right now, not east of SC like the Surface analysis the HPC has. I don't know, I think we are going to get some good rains here tomorrow morning.
44. Zachary Labe
2:17 AM GMT on August 14, 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Pretty slow moving thunderstorms this evening. Also they are pretty widespread in the Susquehanna Valley. Starting to lightning a lot here. I think there is a pretty good chance of storms for you. Just keep watching the radar.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095

Viewing: 94 - 44

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
64 °F
Partly Cloudy

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations