Saturday regional forecast...

By: Zachary Labe , 5:12 PM GMT on August 06, 2008

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 8/6)
Good Wednesday!!! Hard to believe it is August already and the end of the meteorological summer is less than a month away. I have been pretty busy lately gathering data to prepare a winter forecast, as my goal is to get the prediction out by early September. An early taste of Autumn will be upon us this weekend as temperatures struggle to reach the 80s in the south and struggle to reach the 70s in the north. We will be under that typical northwest flow with thick clouds and sprinkles every so often. Even a few weak thunderstorms could form with small hail. But before I talk about the weather there are some other points I want to make. First off I have noticed already the environmental changes as we prepare for Fall. Flowers and plants are beginning to lose the beauty as the summer heat has taken its toll. Even I have noticed a few maples turning red; I cannot figure out why this is as really it has not been too terribly dry here to turn the trees red. Animals have been pretty busy lately scurrying around gathering food, especially the chipmunks and squirrels. I always saw you could tell tomorrow’s weather with just a watch of the animals in the early evening hours. Weather folklore has come a long way. My elder relatives grew up as children on a farm in a time where there was no “Weather Channel.” Their parents who operated the farm have to use weather folklore to try to predict the weather to prepare to a good or bad harvest. Now they all have some wild stories on the farm from the weather. The stories can keep me entertained for hours on end. One of my favorites is how a tornado went over the farm and carried the chicken coup along with the chickens in it and placed everything safely down about a half a mile away down in the cornfield. A lot of their weather folklore they used though we found out to be not the best. Such as the famous heat lightning… Early thoughts were that after a brutally hot and humid day lightning would develop across the clear night sky. Thanks to the age of technology we now know that heat lightning is only a distant thunderstorm upon the horizon. It is amazing to think how far we have come just in the last decade in terms of weather forecasting. Just not too long ago local weatherman used magnetic boards to place a sun or a rain cloud on a map. Now we have radars that can zoom to street levels, and now we can slice a thunderstorm super cell on radar and look into the core of the storm. Technology has its pros and cons. But all in all it is for the better. I was also thinking about the Internet. Remember when Weatherunderground was offline for about a day for some members. Some people were having withdrawal symptoms because they could not check their favorite website. But years ago there was no major Wunderground.com website. Just the morning newspaper look at the weather and the local town weatherman who sometimes got mean phone calls from citizens who might have had to shovel that “partly cloudy” off their driveway during January. In any case the meteorological frenzy has taken off in the last 5 years due to the wealth of new technology. Will we ever be able to predict where and when exactly a tornado will hit? Just maybe. Anyway just wanted to get some of those thoughts down this afternoon. Have a wonderful Wednesday!!!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Short Term Forecast" (Updated 8/6) (Thursday through Friday night)
Well the highly mentioned deep trough is entering the region very shortly. It will take several days for the cooler air to moves across the middle atlantic, but by Friday the core should enter the region. For Thursday some morning radiational ground fog could form in the valley locations and river valley locations. Morning lows will be in the low 50s to low 60s across the state with the warmer readings towards Philadelphia. Clear skies will be across the region before clouds work their way in ahead of a weak front that will move through the region on Thursday. Some cold pocket instability rain showers and thunderstorms may form later in the day across the state. Also there is a slight chance of small hail with any stronger storm, but overall instability remains low. Cloud cover will be variable throughout the entire day. The highest chance of rain will be in the northern mountains where orographic lift will aid in rain shower development. Highs will be normal to below normal in western Pennsylvania varying from low 70s at elevations above 2000ft to mid 80s in the Philadelphia metropolitan. For Thursday night rain showers will be across the east with cloudy skies. Showers will die out by midnight due to the loss of daytime heating. The rain showers and thunderstorms will be highly diurnally driven. Lows will be cool in the upper 40s in the north to lower 60s in the south. For Friday a northwest flow develops will very dry air aloft, as PWATs are several deviations below normal. But a sort of lake effect rain flow will form and drive some light rain showers or weak thunderstorms across the region. Only the strongest of the storms will be capable of small hail. Highs will generally be from the mid 60s in the mountains to the upper 70s in the south. Friday night rain showers die out and skies clear out for what could be a very chilly night with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Looking ahead things remain very chilly. See section below for more detail.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Long Term Forecast" (Updated 8/6)
The long-term pattern is pretty quiet, as the trough remains parked over the region. Dry air aloft will prevent any rain showers from forming this weekend. Sunshine will be across the east under downsloping winds. But cool air will keep highs well below normal as cool as highs in the mid 70s as far south as the Raystown Lake-Harrisburg-Reading-Easton line. Cool nights will also be ahead and they may go into the upper 40s to mid 50s in many areas. Some lake effect rain showers can be ruled out across the north. For next week, highs slowly go back to near normal values with dry conditions. I see no sign of any heat in the next two weeks. Enjoy the early taste of fall!!!

"Wildfire Outlook" (Updated 8/6)
Forest fire conditions will be again non-threatening towards Pennsylvania for the upcoming week. Though the risk is slightly higher than it has been. Basically our pattern for the next seven days will be relatively dry and breezy. But temperatures will be cooler than normal and cloud cover will keep sunrays down to a minimum. Forests most at danger will be the dry trees that were stripped of their leaves by the pesky gypsy moths. Looking across the nation the forest fire threat remains highest over the inner-mountain west especially in states such as California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. The SPC has placed them in a fire risk area for at least the next couple of days. Also temperatures will be quite mild and warm out that way with breezy southwesterly flow as a ridge builds in and the trough remains over the east. We are entering forest fire season here in Pennsylvania in just about a month. And based on now what looks like a dry period in August, that could enhance forest fires when the leaves begin to fall. I wonder if this year will be a late Fall for leaves to turn colors like last year. I guess we have to wait and see. Here again are the fire criteria for development in Pennsylvania... Link.

Criteria for rapid initiation and spread of wildfires in PA:

1. Winds must be sustained at 15 mph (13 knots) for two hours or more, and

2. Minimum Relative Humidities (which usually occur in the afternoon) must be 30 percent or less, and

3. 10-hour Fuel Moistures must be 15 percent or less (and expected to remain there for two or more days).

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 8/6)
Well I am preparing my garden for cool season crops. I planted spring onion bulbs about two weeks ago and they are coming up wonderfully. They are actually growing much faster than they did in the spring. So I will have to wait and see if they will produce just as wonderfully as they did in spring. I planted some butter crunch lettuce seeds and they are really growing fast also. The leaves of the lettuce are really developing fast. I am hoping for a decent crop come September. The carrots are recovering 100% better than I ever thought they would. Earlier in the summer the groundhog ate all of the tops of the carrot leaves, but now all of the leaves have returned. Blueberry bushes lost all of their berries due to birds, but a few very small berries have grown again. Nothing really productive though out of them. Next year I will prepare better for the birds by getting a net. Also I am thinking about planting strawberry plants next to the blueberry plants. Strawberries are my favorite fruit. I was also thinking again to next year for planting the herbs in a large pot instead of in the middle of the vegetable garden. My chives, basil, and parsley are taking over the garden and becoming way too large. Hopefully in a pot this will keep their size down a little bit, but still maintain a healthy plant. Well I have been picking a lot of tomatoes lately, though the groundhog seems like he wants his own tomatoes also. I found one eaten in half this morning. My pepper plants are finally growing much larger with one of the plants having a quite large pepper. I do not eat great peppers, but red peppers are ok. My cucumber plant I am very disappointed with. I only have had 3 cucumbers off of the two plants. Now today I did notice another small cucumber forming. But overall very disappointed. Next year I will plant another variety of cucumber species. Well I dug out 5zucchini plants and only have 1 left. Now the last zucchini plant is very healthy and still producing quite often. I have received what seems like dozens of zucchini the summer. My spinach is extremely slow to grow, but now it is finally getting some larger leaves. Next year I do not think I will plant spinach. I also just planted 4 cabbage plants, which I hope will be ready before November. Also I planted 3 cauliflower plants in the spots where the zucchini plants previously were. I still am eating peas and beans from my plants, thanks to quite a large harvest. I am also hoping to get in some radish seeds in the next week or so. Overall other week I am very pleased with the latest results of my garden. Looking ahead it appears as if we are entering quite a dry period along with cooler temperatures. I really do not see much of any decent rain chances in out future. The Climate Prediction Center also predicts well below normal precipitation out to 14days. Hopefully I will be able to get my rain barrel filled by a chance of thunderstorms this Friday before the dry spell sets in. Well anyway that is the latest update on my garden. How is everyone’s garden? Happy planting fall season crops!!!

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 8/6)
Severe weather chances are looking pretty slim in the upcoming days. As the cold poor aloft moves over the region with a northwest flow, some showers and thunderstorms will form. Any thunderstorm has the potential to bring some small hailstones as it taps into the low freezing levels. Looking ahead into the future organized chances of severe weather remains low. I will provide an update to this section if need be. For now I will talk a little about the severe weather season so far this year. Last year severe weather was quite widespread across the region. Usually I find the region with the most severe weather reports to be in the Lower Susquehanna Valley particularly in Lancaster, York, Franklin, and Adams counties. They are relatively flat counties that are located just to the east of the mountains. They also are some of the southern most counties in the state and their close proximity to the Chesapeake Bay draws up higher moisture levels at times. The mountains also seem to add a natural spin to the thunderstorms making this region the tornado alley of Pennsylvania. But this year severe weather has been focused across western Pennsylvania with primarily wind damage being the threat. For tornadoes this year we have had the Venango County tornado, Warren County tornado, Butler County tornado, Mercer County tornado, and Lebanon County tornado. If I missing any please let me know. That is about normal for tornadoes as Pennsylvania averages about 9 every year. Also this year I have noticed an abnormal amount of large hail reports. Overall this year’s severe weather season has been pretty calm compared to other parts of the northeast. We still have a little bit of ways to go before our severe weather season ends, so it will be interesting to wait and see what happens.

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Monthly Outlook" (August)
Here is my experimental monthly outlook for the month of August. July has already come to an end and here is a little recap. Overall the month came out about normal for temperatures along with varying areas of precipitation anomalies. Some areas saw normal, below normal, or above normal precipitation. Overall my forecast turned out very well with my call for normal temperatures and normal precipitation. I am very pleased with how everything turned out. Now we look ahead to the last of the meteorological summer months. August is known for its complexes of thunderstorms and scorching heat. So what can be expected... Will it be hot and dry? Will it be cool and wet? Well below is my look for what I believe will be the August weather for this year...

Temperature- Looking at temperatures as we enter the month heat will be across much of Pennsylvania with temperatures above normal and in the 90s. But then a trough moves back into the region, and by next week the models really bring in a deep trough over the eastern sections of the nation. Looking at the NAO it looks to be staying negative through the entire month of August, which is indicative of eastern trough development. Now on the other side of the nation in the west the PNA will be moving towards a positive state, which correlates to a ridge over the west and trough over the east. So looking at the first part of the month will be warmer than normal temperatures followed by cooler than normal temperatures the last two thirds of the month. So overall temperatures should average about normal when it is all said and done and the warm air balances with the cool air.

Precipitation- Precipitation should be above normal for much of the state for August 2008. An active jet looks to be stationed over the region with first large MCSs moving along the northern perimeter of the ridge associated with warm air advection. This will bring heavy rain with these thunderstorm complexes. Then with the sudden pattern change from ridge to trough a large cold front should bring in some heavy thunderstorms. By the time the trough moves in many short waves will rotate in on the northwest flow. The driest area will probably be in eastern Pennsylvania with the wettest in northwestern Pennsylvania. But overall most areas should be above normal. This will be good for our lawns and gardens. Looking at drought conditions across the state all areas are not in any threat of a drought in the future.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Tropical Update" (Updated 8/6)
Well Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall in Texas as a tropical storm with winds sustained at 65mph. The storm did not cause any major damage in any areas, just some minor problems such as power outages and urban flooding. In fact the storms in Chicago caused more damage than Edouard did. The storm is continuing to move at a quick pace off through central Texas preventing any serious rainfall from coming. The highest rainfall total I saw was about 6.5inches of rain, which really is quite manageable in the tropics region. This also helped put a dent in the drought in southern Texas, which is great news also. So all-in-all the storm had more advantages than disadvantages. Now as we enter closer to the heart of the tropical season in September, things are pretty quiet right now. Closer to home there is a tropical disturbance located off the North Carolina coastline. That disturbance could become our next invest or possibly depression. Based on satellite it definitely has developed some convection around the center. It also has a small swirl. Sea surface temperatures are adequate enough for development, but shear levels are a little higher than adequate. But none the less even if development occurs, an upper level trough over the east will push what remains of the wave out to sea in the open Atlantic affecting only shipping lanes. I also am watching an area of showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas, which are the remnants of 99L. I am not really expecting any development with this feature, but none-the-less it needs monitoring as it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. High shear though remains over 99L and it has very little convection with it. Elsewhere it looks pretty quiet. A little area north of South America has some disturbed weather with showers and thunderstorms. This area may move into the Caribbean. At this point development is not expected in the short term. Also now is the time to watch the Cape Verde wave train, but it does not appear any strong waves are making it off the coast in the short term. This tropical section will not be updated unless it is necessary due to unexpected tropical development.

"Latest Tropical Systems including Sea Surface Temperatures"


"Regional Forecasts" (Updated 8/9) (Saturday)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Mostly sunny skies. Cool. High 78-80.

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Mostly sunny. Remaining cool. High 78-81.

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Clear skies. Remaining cool. High 80-83.

4. Central- (State College)-
Partly cloudy. Cool. Breezy (NORTHWEST). High 74-78.

5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Mostly cloudy throughout the day with showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be severe capable of damaging winds, large hail, and frequent lightning. Cool. High 70-74.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Partly cloudy. Cool. Slight chance of thunderstorms especially later in the day. Storms may produce heavy rain and frequent lightning. High 73-75.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Partly cloudy. Very cool with thunderstorms possible by nightfall. Some storms may produce heavy rain and frequent lightning. High 75-77.

***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.


"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 6
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 4
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 26

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 0.45inches
Yearly Precipitation- 28.30inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 12

The beauty of the ridge and valley region... (Blizzard92)
The beauty of the ridge and valley region...
The beauty of the ridge and valley region... (Blizzard92)
The beauty of the ridge and valley region...
The approach of a rain squall... (Blizzard92)
The approach of a rain squall...
Water Garden (Blizzard92)
This is a new water garden I made this summer. I took an empty barrel and put lining in it. Then filled with a layer of stone followed by the fountain, water, and plants. My own little oasis.
Water Garden
Water Garden (Blizzard92)
This is a new water garden I made this summer. I took an empty barrel and put lining in it. Then filled with a layer of stone followed by the fountain, water, and plants. My own little oasis.
Water Garden
Boyd Big Tree Conservation Area... (Blizzard92)
I took this along my hike today on this beautiful August day in which the temperature was in the low 70s.
Boyd Big Tree Conservation Area...

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115. Zachary Labe
12:19 AM GMT on August 10, 2008
Well horrible evening. I went out to water my garden and too my surprise everything was eaten. Lettuce gone, cucumber eaten parts off, zucchini gone, tomatoes not hurt, cabbage damaged. I know people have told me precautions about these groundhogs and I have now begun to take some. So now lets see what happens. By the way he also got into my neighbors garden and destroyed all of their seedlings.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
114. Zachary Labe
12:08 AM GMT on August 10, 2008
shoreacres- Lol, good evening!!! Yea 40s in pretty many areas. Tonight I will be very interested to see how low eastern areas get tonight. Last night a slight northwest breeze kept real radiational cooling from working its magic. Thanks for stopping in!!!

JDinWPA- Well the meteorological summer is over by the end of August. Very shortly average highs will start to fall below 80. Looking in the distant I see real no extreme heat at all. 46, wow!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
113. JDinWPA
11:39 PM GMT on August 09, 2008
No, no, no. By the calendar, summer is only half over! We could still get really hot weather. As soon as school's in session around here it will get hot again because none of our schools have ac. It's a tradition.

But I guess that won't change the fact that the shadows are shifting in the morning and evening as the sun sinks to the south. I knew there was a reason I liked the winter solstice best.

Shore - There were places around here that got down to 46! You should come visit. Today's high was 76 with low humidity and sun. The humidity is so low the sky was that intense shade of blue that hurts your eyes to look at it. And still, I'd prefer some more heat.
112. shoreacres
11:25 PM GMT on August 09, 2008
FORTIES?!?!?!

I'm speechless. But, that hiking trail looks great, and the water garden is really neat. I like the sound of water, too - it doesn't take much to be calming.

JD ~ I just looked, and you're in my "group of people I envy" category, too. Goodness gracious, it'll be October before we hit the 70s. Deep sigh.

Just keep those reports and pics coming. You'll kill me yet. LOL!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
111. Zachary Labe
11:22 PM GMT on August 09, 2008
crowe1- Good evening!!! Thanks. I love the sound of trickling water when sitting outside. Another great day here too.

JDinWPA- Good evening!!! Elevation really drops off east of the Appalachians. In fact Harrisburg sits at an elevation of 303ft, but thanks to its proximity to the Susquehanna River. I thought you would get in the 40s. A decent amount of spots dropped in the 40s last night. I just too notice recently, but the evening sure seems to be dwindling by early darkness. I guess fall is almost here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
110. JDinWPA
7:41 PM GMT on August 09, 2008
Nice pics Bliz. I've always wanted a water garden but just have never gotten around to it. Someday.

Are you really only at 520' elevation? For some reason I thought your area was the same as mine, around 1300'. Well, I learned something today.

And it happened. The low here overnight was 49.1 degrees. Urgh! If it keeps that up, the leaves will seriously start to change color. And I'm not ready for that yet. It's a really nice 76 at the moment.

Have a good trip!
109. crowe1
4:31 PM GMT on August 09, 2008
Hey Blizz,

I like the water garden, simple, peaceful little spot:)

Beautiful day here, currently 70.8F, dew point 58.8F, wind 0-5G10NNE.

Enjoy:)


Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 921
108. Zachary Labe
4:24 PM GMT on August 09, 2008
seflagamma- Good afternoon!!! Thanks, I really like how the water barrel garden turned out this summer. This was the first year for it. Thanks for stopping in!!!


***Well some quick annoucements. I will be away from August 10-11 due to a Lake Ontario fishing trip out of Oswego. I will post a observation type blog while I am away. There will be some severe weather tomorrow. So before I leave I will post a quick discussion detailing the event in the form of a comment. On the blog above there will be no more further updates. On a side note groundhog spotting today sunbathing in front of my shed. I thought he was gone after I had not seen him for a while, but he is back!!! Also I did update the regional forecast section for Saturday forecasts across the state. The other sections have not been updated since August 6 and are slightly outdated. Anyways have a wonderful day!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
107. seflagamma
3:43 PM GMT on August 09, 2008
Good morning Bliz,

WOW I love the pictures in your header. Your garden is lovely... Love the water barrel garden.. and your country side is so green and fresh looking.

Just wanted to stop by and say Happy Weekend!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
106. Zachary Labe
1:47 PM GMT on August 09, 2008
cchamp6- Thanks! Wow more storms, with more to come. The troughing in the east should protect the northeast from tropical systems, but that could change come midmonth.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
105. cchamp6
2:15 AM GMT on August 09, 2008
Great pictures Blizz.

I had another storm today, .26" of rain. 2.58" since the first of the month. The ground is very wet. If we ever got a tropical system now, I cant imagine what the flooding would be like.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
104. Zachary Labe
11:32 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Finally got time to upload some pictures I have taken within the last couple of days including today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
103. Zachary Labe
8:36 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Just had a rainshower move through with .10inches of rain. Another nice shower. Now it is 67degrees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
102. Zachary Labe
7:07 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
What a wonderful day! Took a hike threw Boyd Big Tree State Park which is located right on top of Blue Mountain and also in the valley behind my home. It was 72degrees at the top of Blue Mountain (elevation 1250ft). Here at my home it is 77degrees (elevation 520ft). So what a great day it is. Some storms split over the county, but during my hike I could here the thunder.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
101. Zachary Labe
4:40 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
WxWyz- Yea they are popping up across the state. Thanks for stopping in!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
100. WxWyz
3:56 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Looking at your radar it looks like showers are in store for you...enjoy!
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 352 Comments: 3847
99. Zachary Labe
2:54 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
jthal57- Good morning!!! It is hard to believe, but the pattern we are in is sort of similar to instability lake-enhanced snow showers. So areas in winter that typically see snow showers during those types of events will have a better chance of seeing storms. So as you and I know eastern Pennsylvania is not a favored location even for weak lake effect snow showers. In any case this is not winter so things are slightly different, so still there is a chance of thunderstorms there again today out your way, so hopefully you get some rain today!

lawntonlookers- Good morning!!! Well that is ashame. Yep you are right the storm cell did split. I also did hear about impressive rainbows after the storm, none which I saw. ABC27 had something at the 11:00pm news about the rainbows. Thanks for stopping in!

JDinWPA- Wow 54, might drop into the 40s on one of these upcoming nights. That is also a lot of rain. Only .35inches in the last couple of days here. Nice weather here though in eastern Pennsylvania. The western part of the state is thick in clouds and rain showers thanks to the Great Lakes and upper level vortex of western NY state. Hopefully you will get some sun today!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
98. JDinWPA
1:02 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Ok, it's just plain cold here. Got down to 54° last night and now there's another rain cloud just leaving my house. We've already had 1.26" of rain in the past few days. I wish I could just pack it all up and ship it east!

The sun's breaking out now. I hope this day gets better.
97. lawntonlookers
12:29 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Blizz

We had a little rain last night, but the storm split and went on the West Shore and the other part, which looked like it was close to you started toward Grantview and Annville. We did have the best rainbow that I ever saw, and darn it, I didn't have my camera. I will try to see if someone can send me one to post. Have a great day.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
96. jthal57
11:59 AM GMT on August 08, 2008
Blizzard- Yet another impressive line of rain and storms yesterday fizzles out before it gets to me. Nothing more than a few sprinkles!
95. Zachary Labe
11:32 AM GMT on August 08, 2008
PalmyraPunishment- Lol. Well glad you got something interesting.

dean2007- Yep that is a classic mesocyclone supercell.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
94. dean2007
1:39 AM GMT on August 08, 2008
That storm over LI is very impressive as well, very long lived as well.
93. PalmyraPunishment
1:36 AM GMT on August 08, 2008
well... apparently, God read my blog.

What an event, man! I was driving home from work this afternoon and ran into an unbelievable storm at Grantville to Manada Hill around 5:20 or so. High winds, heavy heavy rain, hail the size of quarters -- the clouds were just completely ominous.

I promptly pulled over and stepped outside to watch it all unfold. Amazing!

Why can't we have this more often?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
92. Zachary Labe
12:10 AM GMT on August 08, 2008
Some fog looks likely tomorrow morning across Pennsylvania especially with areas that see rainfall. Fog could be dense in the deep valleys. Watch out for this for tomorrow morning's commute. I will have only one update tomorrow which will be a regional forecast update for Friday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
91. Zachary Labe
11:35 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
dean2007- Probably not. These storms are pretty highly diurnally driven. Some may last overnight, but I doubt in the morning. But there is always a chance.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
90. dean2007
11:26 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
Do you think I will see some storms in the morning, or on my way there? I would like to catch something on camera. Of course it all happens when I'm not there of course. The cluster of storms that recently hit eastern PA are marching eastward towards NYC, meanwhile another area of storms is over western MA moving southeastward. I was wondering what would happen if all these areas of storms collided.
89. Zachary Labe
11:23 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
dean2007- Maybe you will see some cool lake effect rain bands.

More storm reports from the storm that hit me. These reports though are not from my county...

88 SHERMANS DALE PERRY PA (Hail)

75 MIFFLINBURG UNION PA 4094 7707 EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 449 PM 08/07/2008 AND 504 PM 08/07/2008 (CTP)

175 5 N DANVILLE MONTOUR PA 4103 7661 MOTORIST ON I-80 REPORTED LARGE HAIL BETWEEN MILE MARKER 163 AND 170. (CTP)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
88. dean2007
11:16 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
That does not sound good. I will probably miss it, because we're traveling to Amherst, NY western NY.
87. Zachary Labe
11:13 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
dean2007- Eastern MA is the bullseye tomorrow. I think the SPC has a real good discussion on the potential. I do not have much more to add.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
86. dean2007
11:10 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
Any footage avaible for us on those storms, cchamp? Blizzard, do we have the same threat for tomorrow and where?
85. Zachary Labe
11:10 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
cchamp6- Dewpoints have been here all day in the mid 50s. But a temperature of 70 is pretty low, so hopefully that will help weaken the storm. Also the southwestern corner would be pretty close to you, which is not good when supercells are nearby. So lets hope it weakens.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
84. cchamp6
11:07 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
Yes I am in the warning area. I think it is too stable at my house. Temp down to 70 and dewpoint has fallen to 59 degrees. This happened after the tornadic storms outflow blew overhead.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
83. Zachary Labe
11:06 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
cchamp6- That cell looks like a near 70 dbz core. VIL is quite impressive near 45kg. Watch out for large hail. Also looking at velocity radars I do see some slight rotation. Sort of a couplet type looking feature, not too pronounce though. Is that your area in the warning in the northwest part of the state?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
82. cchamp6
11:02 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
I am under a warning now. Local mets say they see rotation with the storms to my northwest. Startig to look like a hook. Just like the last one.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
81. Zachary Labe
11:01 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
cchamp6- Well get some pictures!

dean2007- Thanks. Very odd with all of these potential tornadic storms. I did not really see that type of threat. Though I am not surprised to see all of the hail and even wind reports. That cold of air aloft makes things really unstable.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
80. Zachary Labe
10:59 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
cchamp6- Well some of those high rain totals are a little overestimated as some of that is hail. I would guess rain totals maybe 6inches or a little more or less. The storms are training due to some weak winds at the surface and aloft. Also there is no really driving force such as a front to push them out of the region. Thanks for the link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
79. dean2007
10:58 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
That's good news. There's a possible tornado vortex signature on radar that's moving towards Long Island right now over Long Island Sound.
78. cchamp6
10:57 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
Im watching these to my northwest. The tornadic storm to my south put out a boundary that blew threw here an hour ago. I watched the clouds head due north and now those storms are looking pretty big. Wouldnt be surprised to see rotation on these soon.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
77. cchamp6
10:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
Link for my radar for you. What is causing all these storms to keep going? They producing crazy rain. Estimates of up to 10"!!

Link
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
76. Zachary Labe
10:54 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
cchamp6- Yep, everything is good here. A small limb fell off of my maple tree. Other than that all is good! Provide me some links, pictures, radars, etc, lol. Sounds crazy.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
75. cchamp6
10:52 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
Bizz, your alive! Its been crazy up here. TV is all over it. Damage reports are starting to come in now.

I have some big storm to my northwest moving my way.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
74. Zachary Labe
10:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
cchamp6- Wow that looks like a dangerous situation. Keep me informed.

dean2007- Storm weakened as it got here. I managed to get some pictures I may upload later this evening. But here are some storm reports from that thunderstorm...

SHIREMANSTOWN CUMBERLAND PA 4022 7696 SPOTTER REPORTED MEASURED WIND GUST OF 60 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL. (CTP)

MARYSVILLE PERRY PA 4034 7693 911 CENTER REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON MOUNTAIN TOP ALONG THE PERRY/CUMBERLAND COUNTY LINE. DIME SIZED HAIL ALSO NOTED. (CTP)

TheRasberryPatch- Good evening!!! Nice helpful rain. .31inches here.


***Thanks everyone stopping in during the severe weather here near my location.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
73. cchamp6
10:26 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
The hook has gotten bigger.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
72. cchamp6
10:20 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
Thank god for traffic cams!! Awesome footage on local news channels. Pitch black trees flying all over, awesome video.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
71. cchamp6
10:15 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
CBS out of Hartford has it on a traffic cam. Looks like a tornado on the ground!!
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
70. dean2007
10:06 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
I believe the severe threat will be for eastern MA tomorrow, because that's when I'm leaving for Buffalo, NY.
69. cchamp6
10:03 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
I was watching that thing on my local radar and saw the hook. 2 minutes later they issued a tornado warning. Local television is going nutz over it.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
68. dean2007
10:00 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southern New Haven County in southern Connecticut...
Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...

* until 630 PM EDT...

* at 552 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Trumbull...
or near Bridgeport... moving east at 15 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Trumbull by 605 PM...
Bridgeport by 610 PM...
Stratford by 620 PM...
Milford and Orange by 630 PM...

In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing
quarter size hail and destructive straight line winds.

If you are caught outside... seek shelter in a nearby reinforced
building. As a last resort... seek shelter in a culvert... ditch or low
spot and cover your head with your hands.

Lat... Lon 4132 7300 4120 7300 4120 7301 4120 7304
4118 7305 4119 7307 4117 7310 4115 7310
4121 7334 4131 7331
time... Mot... loc 2154z 274deg 13kt 4124 7326


Goodman
67. cchamp6
9:57 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
That training cell to my south has a big hook, now with a Tornado Warning!! I saw it coming.Link
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
66. dean2007
9:36 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
They recently cancelled the Tornado warning. Man what a storm that's right on Blizzard's doorstep.
65. TheRasberryPatch
9:32 PM GMT on August 07, 2008
looks like the storm has me in its sites. so far all i see is severe thunderstorm warning. thankfully
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
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